Gold is treading carefully as investors favour equities over safe havens, keeping its momentum in check. This analysis looks at the forces behind gold’s range-bound trade, key technical levels, and the factors that could spark its next decisive move.
Equity markets draw investor attention
Gold eased on Thursday as investors redirected capital towards equities, lifting US stock indices and reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
US stocks ended higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record closing highs for the second straight day, buoyed by increasing confidence that the Fed was getting closer to cutting interest rates https://t.co/UzdBHHEXsLpic.twitter.com/DVtsfbJ0U0
Fresh US CPI figures showed no change in consumer prices for the month, reinforcing market expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September – now fully priced in by traders.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he continues to see one interest-rate cut as appropriate in 2025 if the labor market remains solid https://t.co/UpE1piPDqH
According to our research desk, even as US Treasury yields edge lower, the rotation into risk assets has limited bullion’s upside potential.
Earlier-year strength, fuelled by economic uncertainty and elevated inflation fears, has faded as markets turn towards higher-growth opportunities.
Technical analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains locked in a sideways range between roughly $3,250 and $3,400, repeatedly testing both support and resistance but showing no decisive breakout.
Picture: XAU/USD trades around 3,346, holding in a tight range after months of sideways movement, shown on the VT Markets app.
Short-term moving averages have flattened, signalling a lack of directional bias, while the MACD remains close to the zero line, underlining market indecision.
In the near term, a sustained close above $3,400 could open the way for a retest of the $3,500 high, while a drop below $3,250 would bring the $3,150 region into focus.
Until either level is breached, gold is likely to continue consolidating, with traders closely tracking US inflation updates and shifts in interest rate expectations for a potential breakout trigger.
Cautious forecast
A decisive break above $3,400 would strengthen the technical case for a move back towards $3,500, particularly if supported by dovish central bank signals or a resurgence in safe-haven demand.
However, without a new macroeconomic driver, gold faces the risk of remaining range-bound or slipping towards the $3,300 mark.
Risk-on sentiment in equities continues to be the primary obstacle to an upside breakout. This is reinforced by investor appetite for higher-yielding opportunities, which reduces the urgency to hold non-yielding assets like gold.
Unless geopolitical tensions flare up or economic data sparks renewed uncertainty, XAU/USD is more likely to drift sideways, with only short-lived rallies emerging on market dips.
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Ethereum is back in the spotlight as renewed optimism lifts the cryptocurrency market. Strong institutional interest, upbeat sentiment, and supportive technical trends are fuelling momentum, with traders watching for the next breakout that could shape the weeks ahead.
Market overview
The cryptocurrency market started the week on solid ground, supported by strong capital inflows and a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment.
Spot Ether ETFs recorded an impressive $1.01 billion in daily net inflows, while Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) climbed past $90 billion – both clear signals of growing institutional interest in ETH. This momentum mirrors a bullish positioning trend across multiple asset classes, reinforcing a risk-on mood.
$BTC topped $120,000 on Monday, trading near record highs.
Investor enthusiasm and momentum around crypto grew amid Trump's recent Fed nomination and executive order allowing crypto investment in 401(k) retirement plans. https://t.co/7szfB2N6nY
Bitcoin is trading at $119,335, with high-profile forecasts suggesting a potential year-end target of $150,000.
Given the historical Bitcoin-Ethereum correlation, traders and analysts expect ETH price action to follow suit.
Currently, ETH/USD is steady at $4,622.06, marking a modest daily rise of $3.36 (0.07%) and staying within striking distance of its November 2021 high at $4,878.
This rally builds on the April low of $1,399.39 and gained additional momentum after the early-August breakout above the $4,300 resistance zone.
The bullish narrative was further boosted by news that BitMine Immersion Technologies plans to raise up to $20 billion for Ethereum acquisitions.
Historically, Ethereum’s market capitalisation has averaged 30%–35% of Bitcoin’s during previous crypto bull runs. If Bitcoin reaches the $150,000 mark, that ratio would project ETH towards $8,656.
Even a more conservative 21.7%–30% correlation would still suggest an Ethereum price range of $5,376–$7,420 in the current market cycle.
Technical analysis
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has staged a strong recovery since its April through near $1,399, breaking through multiple resistance levels and recently reaching $4,622.
Picture: ETH/USD holds near 4,622 as bullish momentum builds, shown on the VT Markets app.
The ETH chart shows a pattern of consistent higher highs and higher lows, with price action firmly above both short-term and medium-term moving averages – a classic bullish structure in crypto technical analysis.
The MACD indicator supports this positive trend, with a widening gap between the MACD and signal lines, signalling sustained buying pressure.
In the near term, the $4,620–$4,650 range acts as the immediate resistance zone to watch. A confirmed breakout could pave the way for a test of the psychologically important $5,000 level.
On the downside, initial Ethereum support sits near $4,200, with a stronger support level around $3,800.
Overall, the bias remains bullish as long as ETH price holds above its rising 30-day moving average, maintaining upward momentum in the broader cryptocurrency market.
Cautious forecast
A decisive daily close above $4,878 would likely serve as a strong bullish breakout signal for Ethereum, opening the door to a test of the psychological $5,000 level.
If positive sentiment persists in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin price momentum continues towards $150,000, and spot Ether ETF inflows remain solid, ETH/USD could extend its rally into the $5,376–$7,420 range.
This projection aligns with historical Ethereum-to-Bitcoin market capitalisation ratios observed during previous crypto bull cycles.
Sustained institutional demand and increased retail participation could further fuel buying pressure, pushing Ethereum price action closer to a potential all-time high.
However, if ETH fails to reclaim the 2021 peak, the bullish outlook may weaken. A slowdown in ETF inflows, shifting Bitcoin-Ethereum correlation, or a broader risk-off move in global markets could trigger a price correction.
In that case, initial Ethereum support is expected near $4,480, with a stronger technical floor around $4,300.
Such a retracement could be a healthy consolidation phase within the broader uptrend, potentially setting the stage for Ethereum’s next leg higher in the current market cycle.
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The pound is holding steady against the dollar as traders await key economic data and central bank guidance. Momentum is showing signs of recovery, but sentiment remains mixed amid uncertainty over the UK’s growth outlook and US rate expectations.
Pound steadies as traders eye data and policy signals
The GBP/USD pair is holding firm after a recent pullback, showing resilience ahead of key economic data releases.
On the daily chart, the pair has rebounded from the 1.3000 support level, with the 5, 10, and 30-day moving averages converging and the MACD histogram turning positive – pointing to a potential shift back in favour of buyers.
This recovery follows a strong rally from February’s low near 1.21, which was briefly interrupted by July’s correction.
Global market sentiment has been mixed. Japanese stocks have reached record highs after a 90-day extension to the US–China tariff truce, easing immediate trade tensions.
Australian equities remain close to their peaks, although the Australian dollar dipped after the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut.
For sterling, attention now turns to upcoming UK labour market data. Average pay growth in July is expected to remain steady at 5%, but hiring intentions have fallen to their weakest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, and starting salaries are rising at their slowest pace in more than four years.
Within the Bank of England, policy direction remains split – four of nine members opposed last week’s 25-basis-point cut to 4% – and markets have largely priced out the chance of another cut this year, a factor that could lend near-term support to the pound.
Still, speculative sentiment remains cautious. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows $2.78 billion in net short positions against the pound, a reversal from the optimism seen earlier in the year.
This shift reflects lingering doubts about the UK economy’s strength and its ability to sustain sterling’s 7% year-to-date rise.
In the US, the upcoming inflation report will be critical. Traders will be watching for signs of how tariffs under President Trump are affecting consumer prices, as well as any implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
A stronger-than-expected reading could limit expectations for further rate cuts, potentially lifting the dollar and capping gains in GBP/USD.
Technical analysis
Since February 2025, GBP/USD has been trending higher, climbing from around 1.21 to a July peak near 1.378 before easing back to the 1.30 area.
The latest recovery has brought the pair close to 1.344, with short-term moving averages beginning to turn upwards, hinting at renewed bullish momentum.
Picture: GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.344 with moving averages converging and MACD momentum turning positive, as shown on the VT Markets app.
The MACD indicator is edging towards a bullish crossover, which could be confirmed if the pair holds above the 1.3400 level. Immediate resistance lies at 1.345–1.350, with a break higher potentially opening the way to 1.3550.
Failure to clear this zone may trigger a move back towards 1.3300 support. Price action in the coming sessions will likely be driven by US CPI data and any shifts in BoE policy expectations.
Cautious forecast
In the near term, GBP/USD appears to have room for further gains towards the 1.3500 level if UK labour market data meets or beats expectations and US inflation comes in below forecasts.
This scenario would support a more optimistic view on the pound, especially if it reinforces the idea that the Bank of England will hold rates steady for the rest of the year.
However, risks remain firmly in play. A stronger-than-expected US inflation print could revive dollar demand, particularly if it prompts markets to scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Similarly, any signs of weakening UK growth – whether through disappointing job figures, slowing wage growth, or softer business sentiment – could undermine recent sterling gains.
Traders should also be mindful of broader market factors such as shifts in global risk appetite, which can amplify currency volatility.
Overall, while the technical setup hints at further upside, the pound’s next move will depend heavily on how macroeconomic data aligns with market expectations over the coming week. Caution, rather than conviction, is likely to define short-term positioning.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
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The US dollar is in a period of uncertainty, with markets awaiting key economic data and policy updates that could decide whether it regains strength or continues to weaken.
Dollar index struggles to find direction
The US dollar index (USDX) continued its downward trend, slipping to 98.02, down 0.05% during the day following a 0.4% decline last week.
Since reaching a peak near 110 in February, the index has dropped more than 10%, hitting a low of 95.97 in June.
An attempted rebound in late July lost momentum, with the index now consolidating within a range bounded by support at 97.50 and resistance at 99.50.
The 30-day moving average is currently acting as a ceiling, limiting any upward movement.
Picture: USDX retreats to 98.021, testing key support levels after extended decline from 109+ highs, with MACD showing mixed signals on the VT Markets app.
The daily MACD indicator has flattened close to the zero line, signalling that downward pressure is easing but with no clear signs of a bullish reversal yet.
Should inflation data surprise to the upside, a rally towards the key 100.00 psychological level could follow, whereas a softer reading may lead to a test of the June lows once more.
Markets await key data and policy developments
This week’s economic and geopolitical developments are set to shape the dollar’s near-term direction.
The upcoming US CPI figures will influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, while the August 12 deadline for US-China tariff talks adds pressure to global trade relations.
Stocks and currencies in developing markets are moving higher, bolstered by a weaker dollar as traders focus on data in the US which could further cement bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve https://t.co/OL363mmlat
Recent news that Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) have agreed to contribute 15% of their China revenue to the US government might ease tensions and increase the likelihood of a 90-day extension on tariffs.
On the geopolitical scene, a Russia-US summit planned for Friday introduces further uncertainty.
In parallel, the cryptocurrency market surged after President Trump’s executive order allowed cryptocurrency holdings in US retirement accounts, with Bitcoin rising 3% to $121,909 and Ether gaining 2.1% to $4,307.
A cautious market outlook
With the USDX hovering near multi-month lows and heightened volatility risk, short-term price action will largely depend on inflation data and trade-related announcements.
A daily close above 99.50 would mark the first break above the 30-day moving average since May, potentially signalling a momentum shift.
Conversely, failure to maintain support at 97.50 could intensify selling pressure, pushing the index back down towards the June low of 95.97.
Understanding the difference between a futures contract and a forward contract is essential for traders, investors, and businesses managing price risk. Both allow you to lock in the price of an asset for future delivery, but they differ in how they are traded, standardized, and settled. Choosing the right contract can help you optimize costs, manage risk more effectively, and improve profitability. This guide breaks down futures vs forwards, explains their features, advantages, and disadvantages, and provides real-life examples to help you decide which is best for your needs.
What Are Futures Contracts?
A futures contract is a legally binding agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specific future date. These contracts are standardized and traded on regulated exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). They cover a wide range of underlying assets, including precious metals, currencies, stock indices, and interest rates.
Key features of futures contracts:
Standardization: The exchange sets fixed contract sizes, a standardized delivery date, expiry date, and settlement procedures, making them easier to trade and compare.
Margin requirements: Traders deposit an initial margin (a fraction of the contract’s value) and maintain a minimum balance to keep positions open, ensuring both parties have a financial stake.
Daily mark-to-market: At the end of each trading day, profits and losses are calculated based on current market prices and credited or debited from the trader’s margin account. Futures contracts are settled daily through this process, which reduces the risk of default and keeps the market transparent.
Example: If gold futures are trading at USD 2,000 per ounce and you agree to buy 100 ounces for delivery in three months, the contract locks in that price. Even if the market price rises to USD 2,100, your agreed cost stays at USD 2,000, giving you a price advantage.
What Are Forward Contracts?
A forward contract is a private agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on a future date. Unlike futures, forwards are customizable and traded over the counter (OTC), meaning the terms can be tailored to the exact needs of both parties. Unlike futures, forwards are customizable and traded over the counter (OTC) (the OTC market), meaning the terms can be tailored to meet the exact needs of both parties. They are widely used in commodities, currencies, and interest rate markets.
Key features of forward contracts:
Customizable terms: The quantity, price, and settlement date can be negotiated to suit the specific requirements of both sides.
No exchange involvement: Agreements are arranged directly between counterparties without a centralized marketplace.
Higher counterparty risk: Since there is no clearinghouse, the risk of default depends on the financial reliability of the other party, increasing counterparty risks compared to futures.
Example: A European importer knows it will need USD 5 million in three months to pay a US supplier. To avoid uncertainty from currency fluctuations, it enters into a forward contract with its bank to buy USD at a fixed EUR/USD rate (the forward price set for the settlement process). Even if the euro weakens in that period, the importer pays the agreed rate, ensuring predictable costs. Forward contracts settle on the agreed date, which helps mitigate risks from currency fluctuations.
Futures vs Forwards: What Are the Key Differences?
While both futures and forwards allow buyers and sellers to lock in a price today for delivery in the future, they differ in trading venues, flexibility, risk levels, and how they are settled. Below is a clear forward contract vs future contract comparison, followed by explanations for each feature.
Feature
Futures Contract
Forward Contract
Trading Venue
Traded on regulated exchanges
Privately negotiated in OTC markets
Standardization
Fixed sizes, dates, and settlement terms set by the exchange
Fully customizable to suit both parties
Counterparty Risk
Low, as clearinghouse guarantees the contract
Higher, as performance depends on the other party
Liquidity
High for widely traded contracts
Lower, varies by market and agreement
Settlement
Daily mark-to-market adjustments
Single settlement on the agreed date
Margin Requirements
Required to open and maintain positions
Not always required; it depends on the agreement
Price Transparency
Public, easily accessible market prices
Private, with the price known only to contracting parties
1. Trading Venue
Futures: Traded on centralized exchanges such as CME or ICE, which enforce standardized terms and guarantee settlement. This centralization ensures consistent rules, transparent pricing, and easier trade execution.
Forwards: Traded directly between two parties without an exchange. This allows for greater flexibility but means there’s no centralized oversight or guarantee.
2. Standardization
Futures: Identical in terms of contract size, expiration date, and settlement procedures. Highly liquid and easy to trade in large volumes, but less flexible for unique needs.
Forwards: Fully tailored to the buyer’s and seller’s requirements, including non-standard quantities, specific delivery dates, and unique settlement terms.
3. Counterparty Risk
Futures: Low risk, as the clearinghouse stands between the buyer and seller, guaranteeing contract performance.
Forwards: Higher risk, as the agreement depends solely on the counterparty’s creditworthiness and ability to fulfill the contract, which increases counterparty risks compared to exchange-traded futures.
Forwards: Lower liquidity due to their customized nature; exiting early often requires renegotiation with the same counterparty.
5. Settlement
Futures: Marked-to-market daily, with profits or losses settled each trading day to manage risk and prevent large end-of-term payments. This settlement process means gains and losses are settled daily.
Forwards: Settled only once on the agreed date, which can lead to larger cash flow changes at maturity. Forward contracts settle at maturity through a single settlement process.
6. Margin Requirements
Futures: Require both initial and maintenance margins to secure positions and protect against default.
Forwards: May have no margin requirement unless specifically negotiated, which frees up capital but increases default risk.
7. Price Transparency
Futures: Prices are publicly quoted and updated in real time, making it easy to track and compare market movements.
Forwards: Prices are private and known only to the contracting parties, making market comparison more difficult.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Futures Contracts
Futures contracts offer a regulated, transparent, and liquid way to manage price risk, but their standardised nature and margin requirements can also pose challenges for some traders.
Advantages:
High liquidity: Popular futures contracts, such as those for crude oil, gold, and major stock indices, trade in large volumes daily. This makes it easy to enter or exit positions quickly, often with minimal price slippage.
Low counterparty risk: The exchange’s clearinghouse acts as the counterparty to every trade, guaranteeing performance and reducing the risk of default.
Regulated and transparent: Futures markets are overseen by financial regulators, and prices are publicly quoted in real time. This ensures market fairness and allows traders to make decisions based on transparent information.
Ease of access: Many brokers offer futures trading platforms with standardized contracts, making it straightforward for retail traders to participate without having to negotiate terms.
Disadvantages:
Less flexibility: All contract terms, such as size and expiration date, are fixed by the exchange. This makes futures less suitable for traders with highly specific requirements.
Margin requirements: Traders must deposit initial margin and maintain it daily. Market volatility can lead to margin calls, requiring additional funds on short notice.
Potential for daily cash flow fluctuations: The mark-to-market process means gains and losses are realized daily, which can create unpredictable short-term cash flow changes.
Risk of over-leverage: Because futures require only a fraction of the total contract value as margin, traders can take on larger positions than they could in the cash market, increasing potential losses as well as gains.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Forward Contracts
Forward contracts provide unmatched flexibility and privacy in structuring deals, but their lack of standardisation and exchange oversight can increase risk and reduce market accessibility.
Advantages:
Full customization: Forwards can be tailored to match exact quantities, specific settlement dates, and even special terms for delivery or payment. This makes them ideal for businesses with precise hedging needs.
No daily settlement: Unlike futures, forwards settle only at maturity, avoiding the daily cash flow changes caused by mark-to-market adjustments.
Privacy: As OTC contracts, forwards are negotiated privately, so trade details and prices are not publicly disclosed. This can be beneficial for companies wanting to keep their hedging strategies confidential.
Capital flexibility: Forwards often do not require upfront margin unless agreed upon, freeing up cash for other uses.
Disadvantages:
Higher counterparty risk: Without a clearinghouse, the agreement depends entirely on the counterparty’s ability to deliver on the contract. If the other party defaults, losses can be significant.
Lower liquidity: Because each forward is unique, it’s often difficult to find a third party to take over the position before maturity.
Limited price transparency: Since forwards are not exchange-traded, it can be harder to assess whether the agreed price reflects current market conditions.
Less accessible for retail traders: Many forwards are traded between institutions, corporations, and banks, making them less available to individual investors without significant capital.
Futures vs Forwards Examples
Real-world scenarios make it easier to understand how futures and forwards work in practice. Below are two examples showing how each contract type can be used to manage risk in different markets.
Example of a Forward Contract
A European electronics importer needs to pay a US supplier USD 2 million in three months and is concerned that the euro might weaken against the dollar. To lock in the exchange rate and avoid potential losses from currency fluctuations, the importer enters into a forward contract with its bank to buy USD 2 million at a fixed EUR/USD rate on the settlement date. The agreement is customized to the exact amount and timing, with no daily mark-to-market adjustments, ensuring the final cost in euros is predictable.
Example of a Futures Contract
A transportation company that relies heavily on diesel fuel fears oil prices will rise over the next six months. To protect against this risk, it purchases crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), benefiting from standardized terms, transparent pricing, and daily mark-to-market settlements. If oil prices increase, gains from the futures position help offset the higher fuel expenses, reducing the company’s exposure to price volatility.
Futures vs Forwards: Which Is Better for You?
Choosing between a forward and a futures contract depends largely on your objectives, trading plan, and the type of risk you need to manage.
Go with futures if you want a regulated, transparent marketplace with high liquidity and lower counterparty risk. Future contracts are ideal for traders who value quick entry and exit, standard contract terms, and real-time pricing, offering unique advantages for speculation and risk management.
Go with forwards if you require a fully customized agreement that matches specific quantities, delivery dates, or other unique requirements. Forward and futures contracts each have distinct benefits: forwards work best for businesses or institutions that need precise hedging without being limited by exchange rules, while futures offer standardized terms and regulatory oversight.
Tip: Retail traders often prefer futures because they are widely accessible, highly liquid, and backed by exchange guarantees. Corporations, on the other hand, tend to choose forwards for tailored risk management solutions that align closely with operational needs.
In Summary
Futures and forwards are both valuable tools for managing price risk, but they differ in structure, trading process, and suitability. Futures are standardized contracts traded on regulated exchanges, offering high liquidity, transparent pricing, and reduced counterparty risk through clearinghouse guarantees, though they require margin deposits and daily mark-to-market settlements. Forwards, in contrast, are customized, privately negotiated agreements that provide flexibility in terms of quantity, price, and settlement date, but they carry higher counterparty risk, lower liquidity, and limited price transparency. Generally, futures appeal to retail traders for their accessibility and liquidity, while forwards are often chosen by corporations seeking tailored hedging solutions.
1. What is the main difference between a futures contract and a forward contract?
The main difference is that futures are standardized contracts traded on regulated exchanges, while forwards are customized agreements traded over the counter (OTC). Futures offer higher liquidity and lower counterparty risk, whereas forwards provide more flexibility but carry greater counterparty risk.
2. Which is riskier: futures or forwards?
Forwards are generally riskier because they are private agreements without a clearinghouse guarantee, which increases counterparty risk. Futures are backed by an exchange clearinghouse, reducing default risk, but they still carry market risk.
3. Can individual traders trade forward contracts?
Forward contracts are mostly used by corporations and financial institutions, but some brokers and banks may offer them to high-net-worth individuals. Retail traders typically have easier access to futures contracts through regulated exchanges.
4. Which has more liquidity: futures or forwards?
Futures generally have higher liquidity because they are standardized and traded on public exchanges. Forwards have lower liquidity since they are customized and privately negotiated.
5. Do futures and forwards involve physical delivery of the asset?
Both can involve physical delivery, but in practice, many are closed out before maturity or settled in cash. Physical delivery is more common in certain commodity markets, while financial futures and forwards often use cash settlement.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
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