Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks gave back some of yesterday’s gain, the three big indices closed the day in red. Technology stocks led losses in the S&P 500, while Material stocks prevailed. EV manufacturer giant Tesla Inc. dropped 4.46%, dragging down the Nasdaq 100 Index. Interesting to note Bitcoin’s price is somewhat synced with Tesla Inc. recently, Bitcoin is down 4.06% as of writing.

The Federal Reserve is pushing banks to abandon the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Banks now have less than a year before the Fed has indicated it will stop allowing them to enter into new contracts pegged to Libor. The Fed is probing into banks’ Libor related exposure and possible contracts tied to the benchmark. The probing comes after the Fed warned banks in November that entering into new Libor-linked deals after 2021 would pose significant risks.

China’s President Xi Jinping will approve a five-year policy blueprint to reduce dependence on the West during an annual session of China’s legislature. Trillions of dollars will be mobilized to build self sufficient supply chain such as computer chips. Investors should pay close attention to the National People’s Congress session, which starts Friday and will last about a week.

RBA kept policy rate unchanged at 0.1%, here is Bloomberg’s main takeaways for RBA’s monetary statement:

 The central bank remains committed to the 3-year yield target and recently purchased bonds to support the target and will continue to do so as necessary.
 Despite saying the economic recovery was better than expected, the statement flagged that wage gains remain subdued and unemployment high.
 Lowe hosed down any concerns about a bubble in house prices, describing lending standards as sound.

     

Market Wrap

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Main Pairs Movement

Euro-dollar once dipped below 1.2 in early session, but managed to gather enough strength to overturn the bearish bias. ECB president Christine Lagarde remains committed to ongoing economic recovery, saying on Monday that “ECB will ensure financing conditions will not tighten prematurely.”

Aussie reclaimed 0.78 as US greenback lost traction, and traders are back to the reflation trades. The commodity linked currency are receiving strong support from rising Iron Ore prices. Bloomberg commodity index plunged during last Thursday’s bond yield panic, but we are already seeing price recovery today. On the other hand, Kiwi is still lagging behind its antipodean peer albeit outperforming the US dollar by 0.49%, AUDNZD gained 0.3%.

   

Cable recovered 0.31% and snapped three losing streaks. Investors are waiting to hear UK’s budget announcement on Wednesday. The larger than expected budget could offer some bid potentials for the Sterling, possibly regaining 1.41 handle in the short term.

Gold swung between positive and negative territory on the day, ended the day up 0.63%. The precious metal furiously plunged $16 in early Asian session, hitting as low as $1707. Then bounced back to $1736 nearly EOD. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is clinging to 1.4% level.

   

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP (Daily Chart)

Euro has been defensive against Sterling since last December, the steep decline was put to a pause after RSI threatened to breach 20. It then tried to bounce back up, but the recovery did not last very long, and the bulls were capped by the upper descending trendline. Continuation to the south would give bears a chance to contest 76.4% Fibonacci support around 0.8565, if this level could hold off then price could undergo a double-bottom, gathering momentum for a bullish reversal. RSI on the daily chart is likely to resume its downward trend until hitting oversold zone before pulling up.

Resistance: 0.8744, 0.8888

Support: 0.8565, 0.8277

   

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY is running into key 107 hurdle for the first time in six-month, the bears look to end the pair’s five consecutive run-up, and is currently trading around 106.74. The Relative Strength Index has been acting as decent predictive indicator on price retreats during the last month, whenever the RSI hits 70, the pair pulls back from the tops. Moreover, prices have been falling back onto the ascending support trendline. As of current, RSI is wondering around 70, and we expect this RSI-trendline synergy to kick in once again. Price will likely be traveling south toward the trendline.

Resistance: 107, 108

Support: 105.4, 104.6, 103.8

   

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is still confined in a downward tunnel, but the bears were taking a breather on Tuesday, and price rebounded 0.65%. The precious metal struggled to find demand under high yield environment, consistent lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart suggest a strong selling bias. After breaching 50% Fibonacci support at $1765, which now coincides with ceiling of the descending tunnel, we expect price to come back to validate this resistance. If $1765 failed to contain the short term bulls, then we may see Gold regaining further north territories. MACD on the daily chart still heavily favors bullish trend.

Resistance: 1765, 1823

Support: 1691, 1600

    

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

AUD

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

08:30

2.5%

GBP

Composite PMI (Feb)

17:30

49.8

GBP

Services PMI (Feb)

17:30

49.7

GBP

Annual Budget Release

20:30

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

21:15

177K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

23:00

58.7

OIL

Crude Oil Inventories

23:00

-0.928M

VT Markets The notification of new product launched

Dear Client,

To provide our clients with a wealth of trading options, VT Markets will launch new products on March 8, 2021 and March 9, 2021 respectively.

The details as shown in the table below.

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4 software for specific data.

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, easing concerns about inflation and higher Treasury yields would undermine equity valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged around 2.2%, led by Boeing, which rose around 7%; at the same time, the S&P 500 rose around 2.1% while the Nasdaq gained about 2.0%. After last week’s intense volatility in bond markets, investors piled back into risk assets, leading a rebound in stock markets. According to the C.F.O. at Bleakley Advisory Group, equity markets will be fluctuate mainly focusing on the benefits of the vaccines and the challenge of higher yield rates this year.

After a huge tumbling week, dropping more than 20%, Bitcoin rallied back near $49,000, riding a broad resurgence in risk assets and a bullish support from Citigroup Inc. Citigroup described Bitcoin as blockchain’s “North Star,” as it laid out a case for the cryptocurrency assets to play a bigger role in the global financial system, mentioning that cryptocurrency assets can potentially become the currency of choice for international trade in the future. At the same time, MicroStrategy Inc has decided to purchase more than $4 billion worth of Bitcoin, boosting the price of Bitcoin as today’s bullish support.

Asian equity markets rebounded as technology giants climbed and expectations became optimistic. Among the markets, Tencent was the notable boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, rising more than 5% today. The Hang Seng Index also climbed more than 1.5% after plans were announced to expand the gauge to 55 members from 52 members.

    

Market Wrap

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Main Pairs Movement

EUR/USD was down around 0.12% as the time of writing as the European Central Bank tried to make meaningful impact on the currency. The ECB announced to help ensure that companies and families can access financial assistance they need to weather this economic storm. In the meantime, the ECB has decided to slow the pace of bond- buying for the purpose of fighting against rising bond yields. However, those actions from the ECB seem to not affectively help the currency.

Cable continued to trade below 1.40 as the US bond yield have resumed gains, lifting the US dollar. Rishi Sunak, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, is set to unveil a new budget later this week and consider pushing up rates that corporations pay. Those agenda will rise the questions of whether the UK is a good place for conducting businesses. As the US bond yields increase and the uncertainty in the UK, Cable is currently in a negative territory as the time of writing.

Gold tumbled more than 6% in February, biggest monthly slump since 2016. As the US bond yield rates increase, they dimmed the appeal of gold, which did not offer interest. Gold is typically viewed as a hedge instrument of untoward inflationary pressures, but apparently gold has responded more to the combination of rising confidence and rising yield rates this time.

  

     

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Four-hour Chart)

On the four- hour chart, EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.2022 support. A break of the support level of 1.2022 will confirm a continuous bearish momentum toward the next support at 1.1951. Moreover, on the downside, the bearish momentum is considered as active, supported by both the RSI indicator and MACD; the RSI indicator has not reached the oversold situation while the MACD line is still sitting below the signal line, both suggesting a bearish trend. On the upside, a break from the resistance of 1.2091 will give EUR/USD a bullish signal as it is going to be settled in the ascending channel.

Resistance: 1.2091, 1.2161, 1.2221

Support: 1.2022, 1.1951

   

GBPUSD (Four-hour Chart)

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3920 off the high from last week. As the pair consolidates, it remains neutral as the time of writing. On the upside, GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend in the big picture as it is located above the 50 SMA and the ascending channel. On the downside, a break from the current support of 1.3851 will lead the pair toward the next support at 1.3748. At the same time, the MACD line is still below the signal line, suggesting a bearish trend, while the RSI indicator has not reached an oversold condition.

Resistance: 1.3991, 1.4180

Support: 1.3851, 1.3748

   

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

In the near- term, gold is due to a pullback as the RSI indicator has reached an oversold condition and the MACD is currently weak, implying a bearish- to- bullish trend; moreover, the pair has reached the lower band of Bollinger Band, also suggesting a retreat. However, in the big picture on the daily chart, gold remains bearish trend as it stays in the 6- month descending trend and it is located below the 50 SMA. A break of the support at $1722 will bring the pair toward the next support at $1676.

Resistance: 1867, 1951, 2065

Support: 1722, 1676

   

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

AUD

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

08:30

2.5%

GBP

Composite PMI (Feb)

17:30

49.8

GBP

Services PMI (Feb)

17:30

49.7

GBP

Annual Budget Release

20:30

N/A

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

21:15

177K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

23:00

58.7

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

23:30

-1.850M

VT Markets The Adjustment Of Weekly Dividend Notification

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Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US tech stocks staged a modest rebounded on the last day of a tumultuous week as a global bond rout eased, sending the yield on 10-year Treasuries tumbling below 1.5%. Gains for Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. helped lift the Nasdaq 100 about 0.6%. Energy producers and banks were among the worst performers, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The dollar jumped for a second day, helping fuel a slump in commodities from oil to gold to copper.

Investors are getting increasingly worried that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has fueled gains in risk assets amid the pandemic. Fed Jerome Powell says higher Treasury yields reflect optimism on the outlook for growth and officials have stressed that the central bank has no plans to tighten policy given lingering weakness in the labor market.

Asian shares tumbled in line with Thursday’s rout in the U.S., and European gauges also closed lower. Global bonds stabilizes after central banks from Asia to Europe moved to calm a panic that had sent U.S. government bond yields to their highest level in a year and spurred a selloff in stock market.

The Nas 100 pared its weekly loss to about 5%, still the worst since Oct, amid concern that valuations for tech stocks that soared during the pandemic have gotten out of hand. Elsewhere, copper slid the most in four months, falling from a nine-year high. Gold fell to the lowest since June.

     

Market Wrap

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Main Pairs Movement

EURUSD has extended its falls and struggles around 1.21 as the risk-off mood and elevated US bond yields favor the dollar. President Biden’s stimulus bill ran into a snag. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure and end-of-month flows are eyed.

GBPUSD has fallen sharply, trading below 1.39 and down some 350 pips from the highs. The USD picks up bids as the bond market rout seems to resume. BoE Governor Bailey expects a negative first quarter for the economy.

Soaring US Treasury yields and falling equities keep leading currencies. Japanese data came in slightly better than expected, indicated slowing economic progress. USDJPY is technically bullish near fresh 2021 highs.

DXY keeps the bid tone unchanged above 90.75 on Friday. A buoyant US dollar is weighing on USD priced crude oil markets on the final trading day of the week. WTI has slipped more than $1.0 and back into the low $62.00.

     

Technical Analysis:

USDCAD (Four-hour Chart)

The Loonie builds on its previous day’s positive notion and advances towards the 1.2717 resistance level at the time of writing. The rally in USDCAD is still largely supported by the growing risk aversion sentiment and rising US yields. The DXY has now surpassed the 90.85 threshold. From a technical perspective, the two-day winning streak of the Loonie is supported by the MACD histogram. However, with a close-to-70 RSI, the upward trend of the pair might not be sustainable for too long. If the Loonie can consolidate above the 1.2717 price level, the following resistance can be seen around 1.2755, then 1.28. Conversely, if the Loonie loses positive traction, the most immediate cushion can be found at 1.2634, 1.2619, and 1.2567.

Resistance: 1.2717, 1.2755, 1.28

Support: 1.2634, 1.2619, 1.2567

   

AUDUSD (Four-hour Chart)

Coming under the bearish pressure on Thursday, the Aussie pair first attempted to stay above the 0.78 price level; however, during the late Europe trading session, a renewed bearish pressure collapsed and dragged Aussie toward the low 0.77s. The pair has lost more than 100 pips on the day as the greenback continues to gather strength ahead of the weekend. Technically speaking, a positive correction is likely in the near future as the RSI is now fluctuating below 30. Although the recent plummet of the pair is not supported by the 15-Day SMAVG, the drastic sell-off on the pair is reflected significantly on the MACD histogram. Now testing the critical 0.77 support at the moment, a break below would easily further extend the Aussie’s bearish momentum.

Resistance: 0.7734, 0.7788, 0.7872

Support: 0.7703, 0.7675, 0.7633

      

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

While the risk-off sentiment dominates the markets, the safe-haven pair – XAUUSD, has yet to gain any positive traction for the second straight day. In contrast, the elevated US bond yields continued to support the market’s demands and strengthened the DXY. On the last day of the week, XAUUSD has dipped more than $50 dollars, erasing more than 2.5% of the Gold’s value. From a technical perspective, the 60-Day SMAVG is supporting the XAUUSD bearish momentum. However, given that the RSI has now reached the 23s, it is reasonable to see a reverse in the trend. In the bigger picture, given that the markets are mostly turning their heads toward an overall rebound across the global economy, the demand for Gold is likely to grow; as a result, it would not be a surprise to see the precious metal to dip lower in the foreseeable future.

Resistance: 1766, 1779, 1804

Support: 1715, 1708, 1683

       

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

09.45

51.5

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

16.55

60.6

GBP

Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

17.30

54.9

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

23.00

58.9

VT Markets Notification of Server Upgrade

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the best reliability and service to our customers, we are planning an upgrade in our server on Feb 27th 2021.

As a result, we will be conduct maintenance according to the schedule below.
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If you have any questions, our team will be happy to answer your questions.Please mail to info@vtmarkets.com or contact the service online.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

              

US equities plummeted whilst the selloff in global bonds deepened, the US 10-year treasury yield SOARED to one-year high of 1.545%, a jaw-dropping 10.56% in one day. Technology stocks were leading the rout, the Nasdaq 100 slumped about 3.6%. The recent Tesla-ARK synergy took a big hit today, Tesla Inc dropped 9.17% while ARK Innovation ETF down 6.7%. It was blood bath in the S&P 500 Index as well, every sector ended up in the red, with Consumer Discretionary sector suffered the worst of 3.61%.

Several Federal Reserve presidents argued Thursday that rising Treasury yields reflect economic optimism for a solid recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and stressed that the central bank is not planning to tighten policy in the near term. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard told Bloomberg report that “rise in yields is probably a good sign so far because it does reflect better outlook for US economic growth and inflation expectations which are closer to the committee’s inflation target.”

Coronavirus hospitalization rate dropped 72% in a month in the US as the vaccination push accelerated. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden said the federal government will distribute Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine as fast as the company can manufacture it, assuming the shot is approved by the FDA.

  

Market Wrap

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Main Pairs Movement

Aussie staged a significant pullback upon touching 0.8 hurdle, closed the day down 1.2%. This retreat is hardly any surprise since the pair has been overstretched since last week, probably plenty of profit taking orders were triggered a bit north of 0.8. On the other hand, Kiwi was slightly behind its peer, dropped 0.86%.

Euro dollar ended where it started, albeit ramping up 0.64% during European session. The dollar index is clinging to 90.25 near closing hours. US Core Durable Goods Orders for January doubled expectation to 1.4%, and Initial Jobless Claims printed 730,000, beating forecast of 838,000.

Speculators were dumping Cable amid bond selloffs, erased 0.92% on Thursday. The pair is currently hovering above 1.401. US bond market was under pressure since investors were optimistic on global economic outlook, thus betting on higher growth and inflation ahead. The safe-haven US greenback becomes attractive as investors worrisome in overvaluation in the stock market.

Another ugly day for Gold, which has been losing core value since this year as market grew confident on economic recovery around the globe. The negative link between Gold and US Treasury yield continues to drag the precious metal lower and lower.

       

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar ramped up as much as 0.64% in earlier session, but pared most of its gain amid soaring US treasury yield. This pair was capped by 1.22 hurdle, created a long upper wick on the daily chart. Nonetheless, bullish bias is very much intact for now. It managed to stand above the short term descending trendline, and has validated that the breakthrough was indeed solid. If price heads south, we expect the downward trendline to provide defense for the euro again. If broken, then the shared currency will find support upon meeting the long standing ascending trendline. Conversely, it will have to find acceptance above 1.22 to boost bullish momentum. MACD on the daily chart points to a bullish trend.

Resistance: 1.22, 1.2327

Support: 1.193, 1.163

       

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY has been on a textbook like zig-zag uptrend, which was bolstered by the blue ascending line. The pair was heavily linked to the US treasury yield as the Japanese Yen is particularly vulnerable under surging yield. However, this pair somehow lagged behind Thursday’s soaring yield, only up 0.3% while the 10-year treasury yield was up 9%. This could suggest exhausting bullish strength, and offer another chance for the bears to contest the ascending trendline, which intersect with 38.2% Fibonacci support near 105.4. The bulls should flourish in the long term, near resistance sits around 50% Fibonacci of 106.72.

Resistance: 106.72, 108

Support: 104.6, 103.8, 102.7

     

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold plunged another 1.51% on Thursday, it is on a three losing streak. The precious metal touched as low as 1765, which was the 50% Fibonacci support since last November. It was the second attempt to breach lower within a week, the more frequent a support is under attack, the more fragile it becomes. Moreover, US 10Y treasury inflation-index security rate (aka 10Y real treasury yield) has been rapidly rising from the bottom, a higher real yield usually leads to declining safe-haven gold price. SPDR and iShares Gold ETF continues to load off their holding amid plummeting gold price. However, investors should be alerted as we also witnessed quite some volatility in the equity market, which could draw attention for safe-haven sheltering assets.

Resistance: 1823, 1872

Support: 1765, 1691

          

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

NZD

RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

07:30

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities reversed losses and staged a rally as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed his view that the economy needs support. Government bond yields climbed along with oil prices.

Energy and industrial companies led gains in the S&P 500 Index, offsetting weakness for tech stocks. Banks advanced, sending an industry gauge to its highest since 2007, and small caps rallied more than 2% after U.S. regulators said Johnson & Johnson’s Covid 19 vaccine is safe and effective. Tesla Inc. gained after Ark investment Management’s Cathie Wood said she bought shares during this week’s selloff. US 10-year yields touched 1.43%, the highest since Feb 2020, before paring the increase.

Fed Chair Powell testified before lawmakers, saying the U.S. economy still had a long way to go to reach maximum employment and the Fed’s targeted inflation, a signal he wants to remain accommodative. Equity investors are weighing predictions for a post-pandemic surge in economic activity and corporate earnings with concerns that higher interest rates could dent the appeal of stocks.

While Europe Stoxx 600 climbed, the Asian stocks tumbled as Hong Kong officials announced its first stamp-duty increase on stock trades since 1993.

  

Market Wrap

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Main Pairs Movement

US Treasury yields are back up, flirting with one-year highs and backing dollar’s gains. EURUSD trades was seen near daily lows in the 1.2130s area before Powell’s testimony and bounced back above 1.2160s afterward.

The Australian dollar is up against its American rival, trading above 0.7960 price zone. Substantial gains in Wall Street underpin the commodity-linked currency.

The loonie remained depressed through the early European session and was last seen in 1.2510s, breaking below the 34-month lows set earlier this Wednesday.

DXY keeps the rangebound trading in the 90.00 region. Front-month futures contracts for the WTI continues to advance to the upside on Wednesday and briefly even managed to rally above the $63.00 level for the first time since Jan 2020.

   

Technical Analysis:

USDJPY (Four-hour Chart)

After a weak start for the week, USDJPY regained strong positive traction and posted its second consecutive wins today. A recovery in the investors sentiment across US equity markets undermines the safe-have JPY and the greenback reclaimed some momentum after the US yields peaked at 1.429%. From a technical perspective, a recent golden cross between the pair’s 21-Day and 60-Day SMAVG indicates a bullish momentum has formed. The MACD histogram also supports the bulls. However, as the RSI approaches mid-60s, the bulls might not have much room to advance further before a downward correction kicks in to adjust the price action. If USDJPY can find acceptance above the 106 price level, it can certainly open the doors for more gains. However, if the ongoing trend is reversed, we can expect to see USDJPY to rest near 105.76 before dipping down towards 105.45, then104.95.

Resistance: 106.23, 106.43

Support: 105.76, 105.45, 104.95

  

GBPUSD (Four-hour Chart)

Fail to extend further above the 1.4237 resistance, the Cable retreated modestly below the 1.41 level. A combination of the BoE pushing back on the need for negative rates and the Covid-19 vaccine rollouts attract investment back to sterling. Technically speaking, the Cable is still on the upside as both 15-Day SMAVG and MACD histogram suggested. The ongoing retreat is largely due to a rising demand for the greenback on the day. If all things remained the same, the sterling still has the upper hand of being one of the first countries to reopen its economy. Thus, a consolidation above the 1.42 will enhance the investors’ confidence in longing the pair. Nevertheless, upcoming UK politics and Brexit related issues still pose some threats to the sustainability of the UK economy. In all, investors can expect a bullish Cable in the short- to mid-term, but looking ahead, uncertainty surrounding the UK politics require investors to stay cautious on potential deterioration of the sterling’s outlook.

Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4237

Support: 1.4089, 1.4059, 1.3977

    

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

Although the Gold has made quite a few attempts to break above resistance levels at $1817, $1855, and $1875, the overall trend for the precious metal seems to be confined substantially on the back foot since the pair topped around $1960 in early Jan. The overall improved risk-on sentiment and the ongoing rising US 10-year Yields both crushed the XAUUSD bulls’ hopes to reclaim $1900. From a technical perspective, the 60-Day SMAVG supports the bearish momentum. The 48ish RSI indicate that investors are undecisive at the moment. If XAUUSD can find acceptance above $1804, the precious metal can be trapped between $1804 and $1817. On the flip side, a price action that dragged XAUUSD below $1800 can leave the market under pressure. The XAUUSD bears are eyeing $1767 if the yellow metal bulls failed to keep the pair above $1788.   

Resistance: 1804, 1817, 1825

Support: 1788, 1774, 1767

    

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders

21.30

0.7%

USD

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

21.30

4.2%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

21.30

838K

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)

23.00

-0.2%

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market took a hit at its opening on Tuesday ahead of Powell testimony, the S&P 500 Index declined as much as 1.8% whereas the Nasdaq 100 plunge reached 3.5%. These losses were mostly pared after reassuring comments from the Fed chairman Jerome Powell on inflation and the outlook for growth. Energy stocks and Media stocks were leading the gains, while Food & Staples Retailing and Auto sectors lagged behind in the S&P 500 Index.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday indicated the congressional vote for the proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package will be close. The House Budget Committee pushed Biden’s pandemic-relief legislation, setting it up to pass the lower chamber by the end of this week. Even Biden seems to be quite confident in finalizing a bipartisan deal, but Senator Susan Collins told reporters she doesn’t see a single GOP vote the President’s pandemic relief bill.

Bloomberg’s key takeaways from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Senate Banking Committee:

 US still has a long way to go in recovering, and the Fed will be patient to keep its supportive tools in place for some time.
 Economic activity should bounce back strongly, especially in the second half of the year, and that economy may grow 6% in 2021.
 Powell is not concerned about outsize price increases and if prices spike somewhat later this year amid stronger economic activity, the gains won’t be large or persistent.
 Asset price increases due to a better economic outlook are a healthy sign.
 The Fed is evaluating its temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, which expires at the end of March.

    

Market Wrap

图表

描述已自动生成

     

Main Pairs Movement

Euro dollar recovery stalled albeit Powell was pouring cold water on the US greenback, the pair dipped 0.08% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the dollar index gained 0.14% to 90.13.

The Sterling outperformed the US dollar amid upbeat employment data, rallied 0.37%. According to the official release, the ILO unemployment rate hit 5.1%, as expected, in the three months to December. Average Earnings Including Bonus in the same quarter were up 4.7%, beating the 4.2% expected. Also, the number of unemployed people decreased by 20K in January, much better than the 35K increase anticipated.

The European safe-haven Swiss Frac was the worst performer among its G-10 peers against the US dollar, USDCHF soared 1.03%. This move somewhat resembles recent rally in USDJPY. The surging US 10-year treasury yield took a pause on Tuesday, it is currently hovering above 1.34%. As long as yield are hanging high, then investors will shift their attention away from safe-haven currencies.

Bitcoin relentlessly plunged as much as 17% on Tuesday, reached lowest price in three weeks, closed the day down 11%. Meanwhile, Ethereum was more volatile, plummeted as much as 24%, and pared half of its loss near end of day.

      

Technical Analysis:

EURCHF (Daily Chart)

EURCHF refreshed new highs since November 2019, currently trading around 1.0983. The pair is on a six-winning streak after trapping between 1.089 and 1.0742 for four months, and is looking to contest resistance of 1.1057. It is well bolstered by an ascending trendline, but the recent spike seems to be running ahead of itself, RSI of 79 may prompt some pullbacks before it could resume its bullish run. The sudden surge was powered by rising 10-year European bond yields as indicated in yellow curve. This pair could be exposed to potential downside risk since higher Euro could draw ECB’s attention to intervene.

Resistance: 1.1057, 1.1187

Support: 1.089, 1.0742, 1.0672

    

GBPUSD (Weekly Chart)

The Cable continued to capitalize on its gain, taken down multiple hurdles along the way. The bulls seem to be invincible as strong fundamentals act as a backdrop for the Pound. It has been edging higher and higher while staying well within upper Bollinger band since last July. That being said, it will soon run into 1.416 resistance, combined with overextended RSI of 72.3 on the weekly chart, we could finally see some retreats triggered by profit taking orders. However, the bullish bias for Sterling will be here to stay throughout 2021. On the downside, 1.38 handle would be a nice cushion to fall on.

Resistance: 1.416, 1.4377

Support: 1.38, 1.338

   

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold recovered some ground after failing its second attempt to breach below support line of $1765. Currently, it is retracing back towards $1823, which it spent quite some efforts to penectrate. This former support would likely to turn into a strong resistance for the yellow metal to overcome given its recent bearish bias. We have seen consistent unloading from few of the largest Gold ETF such as the SPDR Gold ETF and iShares Gold Trust. If our theory is on point, then the bears will be threatening to breakthough 50% Fibonacci of $1765, followed by $1691.

Resistance: 1823, 1872

Support: 1765, 1691

   

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (TP)

Forecast

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision  

09:00

0.25%

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

09:00

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

10:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

15:00

0.1%

USD

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

23:00

USD

New Home Sales (Jan)

23:00

855K

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

23:30

-5.19M

VT Markets launches Metatrader 5 platform

VT Markets, one of the leading Forex and CFD brokers in APAC, is pleased to offer MetaTrader 5 platform to its clients from today. Traders with VT Markets are now able to trade over 300 assets on MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 and WebTrader.

Chris Nelson-Smith, the director of VT Markets, said:

“I am very pleased to announce that VT Markets is rolling out MT5 to all of our new and existing clients. Our new MT5 offering feeds into the launch of our new branding and client portal. We are committed to offer the broadest range of products and solutions for our clients. We are listening to our trading community and are responding to the feedback from our clients, delivering the next generation MetaQuotes platform to our clients.

The MT5 platform gives clients access to over 300 products across 6 sectors, including Share CFD’s and cryptocurrency. We take pricing and liquidity from 7 liquidity providers which allows us to offer the best possible pricing in such a competitive market. The work we have done on our pricing and execution has dramatically improved our spreads and trading conditions and we are really challenging the biggest players in the game.

We welcome all traders to come and compare us with their current provider, we are confident we are offering a truly superior trading experience, with customer service that is second to none.”

About VT Markets

VT Markets, based in Sydney, Australia, is a subsidiary of VT Markets LLC (VIG), and leverages more than 10 years of experience and expertise in global financial markets to offer easy and transparent market access and help our clients pursue their financial goals. Founded in 2016, VT Markets has applied advanced technical support in the retail FX market to provide clients with superior trading experience. VT Markets are now accepting clients from over 200 countries/regions across the globe.

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