Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks almost wiped out their gains as technology shares turned lower, offsetting optimism over solid corporate earnings and economic reports. Treasuries climbed.

The S&P 500 notched an advance of less than 0.1% while the Nasdaq 100 ended in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a fresh record. Moderna and Johnson & Johnson retreated, while Pfizer finished little changed on news the U.S. will support a proposal to waive intellectual-property protections for Covid-19 shots. Peloton tumbled after recalling its treadmill products. Copper and lumber rallied, adding to inflation worries.

As the world’s largest economy rebounds, an intense debate has emerged over whether actual price pressures are set to materialize. The five-year breakeven rate — a proxy for the annual inflation rate bond traders expect over the span — jumped to the highest since 2008. Despite the increase in commodity prices and supply shortages, several Fed officials said Wednesday that inflation is unlikely to get out of control.

Main Pairs Movement:

The New Zealand and Australian dollars outperformed Group-of-10 currency peers Wednesday as copper surged and a key gauge of commodities rose to the highest since 2015. The dollar was steady, while volatility in the pound hit the highest since March ahead of a Bank of England policy decision due Thursday.

Among G-10 peers, Kiwi led with gains of 0.9%; the Aussie and loonie rounded out the top three, with the latter jumping to the highest since 2018 before paring gains as oil dropped; the Norwegian krone lagged all. Rising commodities are contributing to more bullish sentiment on inflation, with the 5-year breakeven rate hitting the highest since 2008.

GBP/USD rises 0.2% to 1.3908; pared gains after rising as much as 0.3%. One-week volatility in the pound rose to 8.32 vols, highest since late March; Scottish independence vote also fueling higher vols. Elsewhere, gold was struggling in the day and set it below 1790 level, spiral in an accommodative choppy scope between 1764.5 to 1795.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro dollar remains on lost traction to close the consecutive 2 day in negative, trading at 1.2003 around. The pair once dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks at 1.1986 in the European session and seems found a support at 1.19~1.2 level. All of all, recently, the U.S. market continues to drive euro fiber movements while Europe lack of significant news catalyst. For technical aspect, RSI indicator shows 40 figures, suggesting a bearish momentum at least for short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA is maintaining a negative slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to teeny-tiny downside intraday market.

We foresee market will continue whipsaw or choppy in a range between first support and resistance as it tamp down from 1.213 which was a top pattern in recently. On slid side, we see 1.199 to 1.2 has a strong support level which form by multi-month-long price cluster area where also a neckline for last bottom pattern. If market extend it downside traction, next support will eyes on 1.19-1.192 around.

Resistance: 1.2105, 1.213, 1.22

Support: 1.199, 1.19

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen fell toward to psychological level at 109 stage after it fail to keep upward momentum above 109.45 that left the door open to a retreat when materialized amid a decline across the board of U.S. dollar. During the American session, it printed a fresh daily low at 109.13. As of writing, it trading at 109.198. For RSI side, indicator shows 52 figures which suggest neutral market sentiment. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are retaining it ascending movement notwithstanding 15-long one seems to lose accelerating traction.

We expect 109 still be a powerful support level as yen has successfully denfended in recent days. If yen could consecutive stand above first support level, we believe it could been deemed as a bull movement ahead. For upward favour, 109 level is immediately need to be defend naturally and 108.37 following. Its worth nothing that there has a downside resistance form above current stage as the yellow line. If yen could breakthrough the downside resistance, we see bullish momentum is upcoming.

Resistance: 110.412

Support: 109, 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie resumed it downward traction and dropped below 1.2265 level which once slipped to a three-year-low at 1.225 level, trading at 1.22679 as of writing. The slide in loonie took place while broad-base U.S. dollar decline, amid risk appetite and lower U.S. yields following mixed U.S. data. For RSI side, indicator shows 34 figures which suggest a bearish momentum ahead for short term. On averaging price perspective, 15-long SMA indicator turn it slope to downward movement while 60-long SMA indicator remaining it descending slope.

Sum up above, we expect market will sourround in consolidation between 1.2269 to 1.238 as market seems misdirection with blurred price momentum. Albeit, if market doesn’t stand above the first resistance at 1.238 level, we believe it remain bearish momentum for long term.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Support: 1.225

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Volatility gripped financial markets as a rout in some of the largest tech companies dragged down stocks. The dollar rose.

Mega cap such Apple Inc., Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sent the Nasdaq 100 slumping, while the S&P 500 pared losses amid gains in commodity, financial and industrial shares. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rattled markets with a comment economist regarded as self-evident — that rates will likely rise as government spending ramps up and the economy responds with faster growth. Later in the day, Yellen said she wasn’t predicting or recommending rate hikes.

The debate on whether government spending could boost inflation comes at a time when stock valuations are hovering near the highest levels in two decades. Hedge funds have been bailing from equities at a pace not seen since the financial crisis, while shares have struggled to gain traction despite blowout corporate earnings.

Earlier Tuesday, a sharp drop in equity futures left traders scrambling for an explanation. Some of them speculated on military tensions between China and Taiwan, Singapore’s tougher coronavirus restrictions and Ferrari NV’s decision to postpone financial targets.

Investors also monitored the latest economic readings, with the U.S. trade deficit widening to a new record in March. Meanwhile, a senior White House economic aid demurred on the question of whether President Joe Biden will nominate Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second four-year term, saying the decision on selecting the next central bank chief will come after a thorough “process.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said spending may spur modest rate hikes

Main Pairs Movement:

The U.S. dollar extended gains to the highest in two weeks and outperformed all of its Group-of-10 currency peers as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said interest rates may have to rise “somewhat” to prevent the economy from overheating. Stocks slipped amid a risk-off bias in the broader markets, while the New Zealand and Australian dollars led losses among counterparts.

EUR/USD -0.4% to 1.2017; euro crossed below $1.20 for the first time since April 22. Shared currency weighed down by EUR/JPY and option-related selling; one-month risk reversals least bullish in nearly a month and nearing par.

AUD/USD -0.8% to 0.7702; fell as much as 1.13%, the most since March 23. Fell below the 100-DMA of 0.7707. NZD/USD -0.9% to 0.7138; dropped as much as 1.2% to 0.7116, the lowest since April 14.

USD/JPY +0.2% to 109.27; earlier rose as much as 0.4%. USD/JPY 3-month implied vol touched a session high of 6.0725% after Yellen’s comments on rates.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber once slipped below 1.2 for the first time in nearly two week notwithstanding the pair recovery a portion of daily weakness near market close, it still held negative 0.3%; trading at 1.2016 as of writing. What drive the pair losses amid DXY index gained traction in day market with it fueled by safe-haven demand in risk-aversion sentiment. For RSI side, indicator shows 39 figures, suggesting a room for bearish momentum at least for short term interval. On average price view, 15-long SMA is maintaining a negative slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to flatter movement intraday market.

Overall, we foresee market will continue whipsaw or choppy in a range between first support and resistance as it tamp down from 1.213 which is a top pattern at current stage. On slid side, we see 1.199 to 1.2 has a strong support level which form by multi-month-long price cluster area where also a neckline for last bottom pattern. If market extend it downside traction, next support will eyes on 1.19-1.192 around

Resistance: 1.2105, 1.213, 1.22

Support: 1.199, 1.19

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen have found a support as U.S. share market risk-on mode been trigger that ratch up by risk hedging demand, yen trading at 109.296 as of writing, while market inched up to recent high on 109.6 level. Market participants also await important U.S. macro data on Wednesday. For RSI side, indicator shows 56 figures, which suggest a slightly-bullish market sentiment. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are retaining it ascending movement notwithstanding seems to lose accelerating traction.

Overall, we expect 109 still be a powerful support level as yen has successfully denfended intraday. If yen could consecutive stand above first support level, we believe it could been deemed as a bull movement ahead. For upward favour, 109 level is immediately need to be defend naturally and 108.37 following

Resistance: 110.412

Support: 109, 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie had breakthrough 1.23 level, in which was led by broad-base USD strength, and reached its highest level in nearly a week at 1.235. As of writing, the pair was drop down to 1.23 nearby. Meanwhile, WIT crude oil try to tested last peak at 66-67 level, edged up 2.55% in the day and close at 66.11. For RSI side, indicator correction from neutral area to 45.9 figure which suggest a bearish momentum ahead for short term. On averaging price perspective, 15-long SMA indicator turn it slope to upward movement while 60-long SMA indicator remaining descending slope.

Sum up above, we expect market will sourround in consolidation between 1.2269 to 1.238 as market seems misdirection with blurred price momentum. Albeit, if market doesn’t stand above the first resistance at 1.238 level, we believe it remain bearish momentum for long term.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Asian stocks look set to open modestly higher Tuesday after a muted session on Wall Street, where technology giants weighed on the market. The dollar dropped with Treasury yields.

Futures pointed higher in Australia and Hong Kong. Trading will be limited with Japan and China among markets closed for holidays. The S&P 500 Index closed near session lows, while Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. weighed on the Nasdaq 100. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped back to around 1.6% as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic recovery remains patchy.

Commodities advanced, with silver leading gains in precious metals as the prospect of near-zero rates for longer boosted demand. Copper and oil climbed more than 1% amid broad rallies in energy and material stocks.

As a reminder of the fragility of economy and persist risks of excessive inflation, Monday’s data showed growth among U.S. manufacturers cooled in April, while a gauge of prices paid for materials jumped to the highest since 2008. Powell said progress in the recovery has been uneven across racial and income divides. New York Fed President John Williams said current conditions are “not nearly enough” for a shift in the monetary policy stance.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar lagged all its Group-of-10 currency peers as Treasury 10-year yields slipped following a report showing U.S. factory growth eased in April. The pound led gains, while the euro rose by the most in over a week.

Among G-10 peers, the Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the top three gainers as an index of commodities touched the highest since 2018.

GBP/USD +0.6% to 1.3909; rose as much as 0.8%, the biggest jump since April 19. Pound buoyed by short-dated call demand and EUR/GBPsales ahead of Bank of England policy meeting later this week. Sizable GBP options expire Tuesday and Wednesday at strikes of 1.3800 and 1.4000.

EUR/USD +0.4% to 1.2065; advanced as much as 0.5%, the most since April 23; poised for the first gain in three sessions; climbed above its 100-DMA of 1.2055. Intraday resistance lies around 1.2080, April 20 high.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (4 hour Chart)

XAU/USD pair has been pulled up on Monday while DXY index fell to 90.982 and most importanly that 10 year U.S. Treasury yields slipped over come to 2% in the day which spiraling at 1.6% which seems to be a critical support level, gold trading at 1792.79 as of writing. For RSI side, indicator shows 67.6 figures, suggesting a space for bearish momentum at least for short term interval. On average price view, 15-long SMA is holding a positive slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to ascending way intraday market.

From price action perspective, it is obviously there has a 2-month long powerful resistance the currently market at 1800 around capping. Moreover, relative strong indicator shows market is close to over bought sentiment. Therefore, we expect gold has lot of chances will be stopped at first immediately resistance. However, if market penetrate the first resistance, 1812 following.

Resistance: 1800, 1812

Support: 1759.7, 1754.53, 1722.76

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen have a correction in the day as U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI exceedingly worst-than-expectation with 60.7 versus prediction with 65. Intraday, market once edge up to recently high at 109.65 around then fell to test the firs immediately psychological support level at 109, trading at 109 as of writing. For RSI side, indicator has tamp down to 52 figures, which suggest a neutral market sentiment. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are retaining it ascending movement notwithstanding seems to lose accelerating traction.

In the lights of phenomenon, we expect market will lose a significant direction if it keep clinging at first support level. For upward favour, 109 level is immediately need to be defend naturally and 108.37 following

Resistance: 110.412

Support: 109, 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

After trading around 1.23, loonie sucessive depressed around 1.2276. It slipped 0.14% in the day, amid WTI crude oil price bust out to recently high that rallied over 1.6% to 64.48, trading at 1.227 as of writing. The immense of selling pressure surrounding the greenback seems to be forcing loonie to tamp lower. At the meantime, the Canadian manufacturing sector continue to expand in Apr, albeit at a slower pace than March, data edging lower to 57.2 from last month 58.5. For RSI side, indicator bounced back from over sought zone to 34 figures which still suggesting a bearish momentum ahead for short term. On averaging price perspective, 15-long SMA indicator turn it slope to flatter movement while 60-long SMA indicator remaining descending slope.

Overall, if market not retesting the first resistance, we expect loonie will remain it bearish momentum for long term.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks dropped from a record as traders assessed corporate earnings, economic data showing potential inflation pressures and hawkish remarks from a Federal Reserve official. The dollar climbed.

The S&P 500 trimmed its biggest monthly advance since November, with energy and technology shares leading declines on Friday. Twitter Inc. tumbled as the social media company posted a sluggish start to the year in its advertising business. Despite living up to Wall Street’s profit expectations, Chevron Corp.retreated after disappointing investors who were anticipating a revival of buybacks.

Signs of excess risk-taking in markets show it’s time to start debating a reduction in bond purchases, said Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, breaking ranks with Chairman Jerome Powell. Data showed personal incomes soared in March by the most in monthly records back to 1946, powered by fiscal stimulus. A key measure of consumer prices that the Fed officially uses for its target had the biggest increase since 2018.

The S&P 500 has had better months, but never before has a rally been so widespread, according to one measure tracked by Bloomberg. During 18 sessions in April through trading on Thursday, 95% or more of the index’s members were above their 200-day moving average.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar increased by the most in almost two months as the U.S. economy rebounds at a faster pace than others in Europe and Asia, leaving traders covering short bets and rebalancing portfolios as the month ends.

The dollar is now poised to end a three-week losing streak. President Joe Biden administration’s unprecedented spending packages are helping to boost economic growth, a positive for dollar bulls. But bears argue that America’s growth will eventually be overshadowed by a broader revival in the global economy and renewed appetite for riskier assets.

The greenback gained more support as Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, said it’s time for the U.S. central bank to start debating whether to start pulling back on some of its asset purchases as growth quickens. Traders also cited 10-year Treasury yields holding near recent highs and profit-taking ahead of central bank meetings, with the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia set to meet next week.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

GBP/USD pair came under strong downside stress during American session while US dollar index usher to above 91 level, traing at 1.38 as of writing. Major rival currencies against greenback were dragged down amid euro plummet after German GDP fail to beat estimation with -1.7% versus -1.5% expected. At the meantime, some trader said it seems to be a product of month-end flows into London fix. For RSI side, indicator shows 34 figures, suggesting a window for bearish momentum at least for short term interval. On moving average price, 15-long SMA is turning it head down to negative slope whilst 60-long SMA is turning flat move.

Sum up above, we see market is confronting a critical time at current stage as it seems to establish a “M” pattern in short term For price action, current stage at 1.3822 level indicate as neckline of “M” pattern, moreover, it’s also considered low bound for longer perspective as well. Therefore, we stay tune on immediate support at 1.3822, 1.3796 following.

Resistance: 1.39, 1.396, 1.4

Support: 1.3822, 1.3795

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen is poised to upper side as it continue rallied which fueled by strong greenback, trading at 109.32. In the absence of a significant news pump, the furious pull up seemingly driven by weakness Fiber. For RSI side, indicator has ratched up to 68 figures, suggesting an room for upper movement. Moreover, 15-long SMAs accelerating it upward slope and 60-long SMA maintaining a smooth movement.

Overall, we expect market still have a room for bullish momentum which motivate the strong price action pattern notwithstanding RSI is poised to over bought area. On slid way, we see the priority support of price cluster at 109 and 108.37 following as neckline of longer view.   

Resistance: 110.412

Support: 109, 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonies snap days appreciation streak as pan-commodities market whispaw and greenback turn north territory, trading at 1.22865 level as of writing. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil had slipped over 2.1% to 63.5 level as market close. For RSI side, indicator still occupy the over sought territory at 28 figure, suggesting an over pessimetic sentiment at the moment.

Continue our recently perspective, we estill expect loonie will have an immense space for downward trend as it penetrated 2 years neckline. Moreover, we do not see any support level on lower bound in long term view.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks rose to a record as investors digested the latest batch of corporate earnings and data that showed the American economy gained steam in the first three months of the year.

Amazon.com climbed after hours on a better-than-estimated revenue forecast, while Twitter sank amid a lackluster outlook. In regular trading, Apple wiped out its gains on concern that the iPhone maker may not sustain growth after a blockbuster quarter as it faces a tightening supply of chips.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 broke a two-day losing streak. The volatility came as investors continued to assess major corporate results that overshadowed signs of a resurgence in the economy. Data released Thursday showed U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, while applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance fell last week to a fresh pandemic low.

While the GDP figures may support the Federal Reserve’s strong assessment of the economy, the central bank is in no mood to halt aggressive support as it looks for even further progress in employment and inflation. Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday dismissed worries about price surges or anecdotes of labor shortage, implying policy makers are prepared to run the economy hot for a while. President Joe Biden unveiled a $1.8 trillion spending plan targeted at American families, adding to the economic optimism.

With their plans, the Fed and Biden have delivered a boost to investor sentiment that has see-sawed in recent days between optimism over a string of robust economic data and caution amid high valuations and speculation about stimulus tapering by year-end.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar topped most Group-of-10 currency peers as 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest in two weeks amid mounting inflation expectations and data showing U.S. economic growth is accelerating. The Canadian dollar outperformed as oil climbed and copper neared an all-time high.

Treasury 10-year yield up 3bps at 1.64%, paring a gain of as much as 8bps, as TIPS break evens touched the highest since 2013. Among G-10 peers, the greenback outperformed most except for the loonie and pound; the Swedish krona and Australian dollar lagged the pack.

USD/JPY climbed 0.3% to 108.94; rose as much as 0.6% to 109.22, highest since April 13. EUR/USD -0.1% to 1.2119 after earlier hitting the highest since February; options suggest further spot gains may come at a slower pace.

GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3944, after earlier rising to the highest in over a week as UK PM facing a political risk. USD/CAD dropped 0.3% to 1.2283, earlier fell to 1.2281, lowest since February 2018; leads G-10 gains as WTI oil rises for third day.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro dollar retains monthly gains after reached top 1.2149 but stifle by 1.213 level while outerperformance U.S. data failed to push the greenback forward, trading at 1.213 as of writing. For RSI side, indicator shows 60.3 figures, suggesting a room for bullish momentum at least for short term. On moving average price, 15 and 60-long SMA indicator remain an ascending movement.

Overall, we expect there still have a upper-space as market sentiment remain a benign bullish momentum. Again, we need to eyes on euro dollar whether could emphatically stand above 1.2106 level.

Resistance: 1.213, 1.22

Support: 1.2106, 1.199, 1.192

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen retreat yesterday weakness from Fed’s impact that once hit all day high 109.22 then slightly fell to 108.9 when market close. For RSI side, indicator has ratched up to 61 figures, suggesting an optimistic sentiment for bull movement. Moreover, 15-long SMAs has golden cross 60-long one although 60-long SMA remain a smooth movement.

In lights of day move, we foresee market is establishing a upward momentum as price action and market sentiment. In order maintaining bull move, neckline of “V” pattern should be the immediately defend level, 107.937 following. On up way, if yen could penetrate day high level, place at 109.22, it could spur more buy side demand.

Resistance: 108.93, 109.22, 110.412

Support: 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

After breakthrough support at 1.238 level, loonie continue it downward momentum to nearly three year fresh low that trading at 1.228 as of writing. For moving average side, 15 and 60-long SMAs remaining a descending trend. For RSI side, indicator has slipped into the over sought territory at 22 figure, suggesting an over pessimetic sentiment at the moment.

Continue our recently perspective, we estill expect loonie will have an immense space for downward trend as it penetrated 2 years neckline. However, consecutive 2 days over sought sentiment of RSI indictor which we consider will have a mean reverse in imminet days. Otherwise, we do not see any support level on lower bound in long term view.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

An exhange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index jumped in late trading after Apple Inc. crushed revenue estimates and Facebook Inc. reported gains in sales and users.

Stocks ended the cash session lower after a back-and-forth day.

The S&P 500 reached a session high after Jerome Powell said the central bank is not considering cutting back on asset purchases that have helped the economy recover from the pandemic. Treasuries rose after the Fed kept interest rates at zero and policy makers strengthened their view of the economy.

Here are three takeaways of Fed Chairman speaking and FOMC statement:

1. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues upgraded their assessment of the U.S. economy but said they were not yet ready to consider scaling back pandemic support.

2. The recovery has been faster than expected but “it remains uneven and far from complete” and the economy “is a long way from our goals.” U.S. central bankers repeated they would not change the pace of bond buying until “substantial further progress”.

3. The statement also noted that sectors hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic had “shown improvement.” And on the risk of prices rising, policy makers said: “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar slid to session lows Wednesday as the Federal Reserve signaled risks to the economy from the coronavirus have abated and left the current pace of asset purchases unchanged. Resource-linked currencies led gains, with the Canadian dollar hitting the highest level since 2018 as a key gauge of commodities touched a fresh almost three-year high.

Among G-10 peers, the Norwegian krone, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars led gains. EUR/USD trading +0.3% at 1.2124 in the day as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says the region is probably past the peak of the third wave of coronavirus infections, but there are still downside risks in near term.

ECB’s response to the crisis has proven efficient; euro area still needs monetary, fiscal stimulus. ECB is closely watching exchange rate’s impact on inflation.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro dollar has soared up to highest level; earlier fell as much as 0.3% to 1.2056; since March after Fed left key rate unchanged, trading at 1.2124 as of writing. For RSI side, indicator shows 65 figures, suggesting a room for upward side before tap into over bought sentiment. On moving average price, 15-long SMA indicator turn positive slope and 60-long SMA indicator retaining an ascending movement.

Therefore, we foresee there still have a upper-space as market sentiment remain a benign bullish momentum. Before optimistic views, we need to eyes on euro dollar whether could emphatically stand above 1.2106 level.

Resistance: 1.213, 1.22

Support: 1.2106, 1.199, 1.192

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen wiped out earlier session gains after Fed’s rate decision and chairman’s dovisk statement, trading nearly day low at 108.618 as of writing. Meantime, 10 years Treasuries yields turn negative territory at 1.611% which once pick up to day high 1.664%. For RSI side, indicator was close to the neutral area at 55 around which suggest a mixed movement in forthcoming market. On the other hand, 60-long SMA indicator hold an opaque movement but 15-long SMA indicator seems is going to golden cross with 60 one.

Continuing our yesterday perspective, we deem market bounced up was too rapidly thence a correction is necessary, yet, for bullish aspect, 108.37 have to be defended. Currently, we expect market will intend to choppy in a tiny range which between neckline at 108.37 and first resistance.

Resistance: 108.93, 109.22

Support: 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie finally breakthrough the critical support at 1.238, of course driven by Fed’s rate decision, trading at 1.23144 nearly all time low in this 2 years. At the meantime, Dollar index drop to a nadir of price action since March. For moving average side, 15 and 60-long SMAs remaining a descending trend. For RSI side, indicator has slipped into the over sought territory at 23 figure, suggesting an over pessimetic at the moment.

Sum up aforemention, we expect loonie will have a substantial space for downward trend as it penetrated 2 years neckline. Therefore, 1.238 level would be the vital resistance for our perspective.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note change of the following some products due to The Early Bank Holiday.

If you have any questions, our team will be happy to answer your questions. Please mail to info@vtmarkets.com or contact the service online.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. technology stocks fell as investors turned their attention to a batch of earnings from industry heavyweights that have helped drive the market to all-time highs.

The Nasdaq 100 dropped for the first time in three sessions, weighed down by declines in tech heavyweights including Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. The S&P 500 closed little changed after swinging between gains and losses throughout the day. United Parcel Service Inc. soared to a record after beating Wall Street’s profit estimates.

Tesla ended a two-day streak of gains after its results failed to impress investors. 3M Co. was the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average after it warned that higher costs for raw materials and transportation is a worsening threat. Google parent Alphabet climbed more than 4% post market, erasing its cash-session decline after profit and revenue exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Microsoft Corp. reversed a gain and dropped 3.5% after reporting revenue that missed the highest analysts’ estimates.

While the earnings season has been generally strong so far, investors may be waiting for more robust beats to fan the next move higher. Four out of five S&P 500 companies that have released results have either met or beaten expectations. On average, shares have gained less than 0.1% after the reports, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, U.S. data this week are expected to show growth accelerated to an annualized 6.8% in the first quarter. A Conference Board measure Tuesday showed consumer confidence reached the highest since February 2020 as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy and job market.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar advanced while U.S. 10-year yields touched the highest level in a week as Federal Reserve policy makers began a two-day meeting with a decision Wednesday that may provide insight into their views on tapering asset purchases. The Canadian dollar slipped from the highest level in five weeks as traders await comments Tuesday from the central bank governor.

Among Group-of-10 peers, the Norwegian krone and pound led gains; the Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the laggards. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed as much as 5.9bps to 1.63%

The divergence in sentiment for the euro as shown by its volatility skew has reached levels seen only a handful of times in data going back to 2006. The spread between one-year and nine-month risk reversals is trading around 40 basis points in favor of the longer-term puts.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

EURUSD consecutive two days slightly move in the day market which gird in tiny horizontal channel, trading at 1.2088 as of writing. Euro dollar bounced back but under 1.21 from intraday low of 1.2060 while investor awaiting ECB chairman speaking, FOMC statement and Fed interest rate decision. For RSI side, indicator shows 58 which suggest a upward momentum ahead of. On average price aspect, 15 and 60-long SMAs are retaining an ascending trend.

In the lights of aforemetional suggestion, we still expect market maintain bull movement at current stage. It is one thing worthnoting that there has a solid threshold at 1.21. In additional, market could face a tumultuous as central bank governor speaking and any decision.

Resistance: 1.2106

Support: 1.2071, 1.199, 1.192

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen hovered to close the day in the positive territory, trading at 108.756 level as of writing, whilst greenback clings in tiny daily gains. In morning session, the BoJ govorner said that the central bank can achieve a 2% inflation target by continuing powerful money easing as at it post-monetary policy meeting that drive devaluation expectation rising. For RSI side, indicator is locating at 66 figure, suggesting a bull move at short run. On the other hand, yen jumped significantly that drove 15-long SMA indicator turn to upward way and 60-long remaining a slightly move.

At current stage, yen stand above the month-long neckline at 108.37 level as recovery from days ago low. Therefore, we believe market has potential upward indication. However, we see the market momentum was pick up too rapidly in short term that probably will induce some take-profit trade from long position.

Resistance: 108.93, 109.22

Support: 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie fail to continue it downward momentum as it struggle near by critical support and pan-commoditie market was lack of any direction, modest recovery above 1.24 mark. For RSI side, indicator record 34 figure which suggest a downward sentiment in short term. On moving average side, both SMA indicator are retaining downside movement.

Integrity all spots, we consist our yesterday view that loonie could cling at current stage, at 1.238 level, to waiting other strong bearish signal like greenback devaluation or loose statement from central bank. Moreover, pan-commodities price rising will appreciate for loonie as well.

Resistance: 1.246, 1.2491, 1.2587

Support: 1.238

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. equities climbed to a record high amid solid corporate earnings and confidence that the Federal Reserve will remain accommodative even as robust growth takes the world’s largest economy back to pre-pandemic levels.

The S&P 500 rose after notching its first weekly decline since mid-March. Most of the main 11 industry groups gained, with energy and consumer-discretionary shares jumping the most. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 outperformed the broader market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around its 50-day moving average. Copper, seen as a barometer of growth, surged to the highest in a decade.

Investors this week will focus on corporate earnings and U.S. economic data even as the Fed primes them to expect no change to policy at their two-day meeting ending Wednesday. While emerging economies from India to Brazil are grappling with a Covid-19 surge or renewed curbs, the developed world is on a firmer recovery path with a faster pace of vaccination.

Data on Thursday may show U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 6.9% annualized pace from January through March after a more moderate 4.3% rate in the previous quarter. Other reports this week may show a pickup in consumer confidence and robust personal spending. Recent indicators cemented economic optimism, with durable-goods orders rebounding in March and output at manufacturers and service providers reaching a record high in April.

European stocks advanced Monday, as gains for banks and travel companies offset losses for food companies and utilities. The dollar was little changed after initially falling to a two-month low. It was still on course for the biggest monthly drop this year.

Main Pairs Movement:

The Canadian dollar touched a five-week high, while the Australian dollar topped all Group-of-10 peers Monday, as a key index of commodities climbed to the highest since June 2018. A gauge of the dollar hit the lowest in two months as the Federal Reserve is set to begin a two-day meeting that ends Wednesday with a decision that could provide clues on its tapering stance.

Among G-10 peers, the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars outperformed amid a surge in copper and iron ore prices; the yen and euro led losses.

EUR/USD -0.1%; earlier climbed to 1.2117, the highest since Feb. 26. Short-dated risk reversals ease with gamma around EUR2.6 billion of 1.20 strikes and EUR2 billion of 1.19 strikes rolling off Wednesday.

AUD/USD advanced 0.8% to 0.7803; NZD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7238. Pair likely capped by ~AUD1.1 billion of 0.7830 options expiring Tuesday, according to DTCC data. GBP/USD +0.2%; rose as much as 0.4% to 1.3929; a move through 1.40 is likely.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

EURUSD slightly move in the day market which gird in tiny horizontal channel, trading at 1.2086 as of writing. As the lastest CFTC report, the EUR net speculator’s positioning increasing sharply. For RSI side, indicator show 59 figure at the moment, suggest a bullish momentum in short run. Furthermore, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are remaining acending trend. Therefore, we still optimistic for next bullish momentum that base on currently thread. However, there has a pursuant resistance at 1.2106 on the north side. If euro penetrate the resistance, we believe euro would hold the bull movement ahead.

Resistance: 1.2106

Support: 1.2071, 1.199, 1.192

AUDUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Aussie dollar has remians on upward track to post strong daily gains around 0.78 level which amid weakness greenback and benefit by booming commodities price as it commodities-linked characteristic. In the absence of worthnothing news, the pickup witnessed in copper prices provided a boost to the Aussie. For technical side, RSI indicator has risen to 68 figures which suggest a bullish guideline. On average price view, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are both sprawling upward trend.

Overall, we expect market still have room for upper side if greenback remaining weak\ness and rising price of commodities marketplace. Elsewhere, we see there has a strong resistance in short distance on 0.783 around. Moreover, unstopable bullish sentiment will drive RSI too quick to over bought threholds that might spur some sell-off order to the market.

Resistance: 0.783

Support: 0.775, 0.7695, 0.7656

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Just like other commodities-linked currencies, loonie also driven by weakness greenback and inflation expectation of commodities market. As of writing, loonie tumbled during the north American session, reaching the lowest level since March 18^th and also the multi-year low. Pair broke 1.246 then close around 1.2394 level. For RSI perspective, indicator has drop to 30 figure which pretty close to over sought barrier. Moreover, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator have death cross in recently day.

Integrity all spots, we foresee market will reverse currently movement in short term as trigger the critical support level. On slip side, if market sucessive tamp down over nadir level, there will extend the plummet momentum and sentiment because there lack of a price cluster support.

Resistance: 1.246, 1.2491, 1.2587

Support: 1.238

Economic Data