Dear Client,

To provide our clients with a wealth of trading options, VT Markets will launch new products on June 21, 2021.

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks market was mixed as investors were adjusting positions to Thursday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Tech shares were gaining traction, with the Nasdaq 100 up nearly 1%, they also helped the S&P 500 to close in the green. Meanwhile, Financials dropped as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested Wall Street’s trading prosperity in the pandemic era may fade away.

US President Joe Biden entered his first international summit looking for a breakthrough on vaccine pledges for developing countries, and a unity action to counter China’s economic might. US officials said the G-7 group is now a united ally to fight against China on issues such as forced labor and human rights abuses, and to stand up to an alternative to China’s Belt and Road plan to counter Chinese influence abroad.

US consumers expectation for inflation rose to 3.6% over the medium term, refreshed an eight year high in May, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. “Notably, medium-term inflation expectations have increase at a slower pace than short-term inflation expectations over the past few months, and the difference between one- and three-year-ahead median inflation expectations marks a series high,” officials from New York Fed said in a press release.

Main Pairs Movement:

Gold plunged as much as 1.7% during the first day of the week. Money managers are paring their long positions in the futures market ahead of Thursday’s FOMC meeting. Judging from market reaction to last week’s CPI figures, investors seemed to believe current inflation spike is temporary and will ease over the second half of 2021. Of course, the Fed will factor in market reaction when considering how they should play the script. With market participants are more in line with the central bank proposed transitory inflation theory, we are unlikely to see any big surprise on Thursday. That being said, the Fed would still be guiding the market to where they desired by giving out little hints in FOMC statement, or adjusting their portfolio holdings (small enough to not cause any ripples across stocks and bond market while sending a signal).

Cable is on the back against US greenback amid lockdown extensions, dipped 0.05%. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday that reopening will be postponed to July 19th. Though the negative headline is much expected, it still keeps the pressure on the Sterling compared to other G-7 currencies.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD exits from consolidation mode and enters a bearish trend. Price failed to reclaim 1.22 in last week, we have seen five rejections from 1.22 before it turns south. Market is perhaps pricing in a more dovish ECB than its US counterpart given Christine Lagarde’s speech on EU’s forthcoming larger spending. We do not rule out potential price recoveries or sideway trading prior to Thursday’s FOMC meeting. If the Fed’s message is affimative then the bears should not have too many troubles at taking out 1.21 horizontal support, which would open doors to 1.2 and 1.195.

Resistance: 1.22, 1.235

Support: 1.21, 1.204, 1.195 

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

XAUUSD finally made a decisive breakout, and it was in favor of the sellers this time. Price penetrated the 2-month ascending trendline, along with its DMA20 support line. However, it quickly bounced off upon touching 38.2% Fibonacci level at $1846. Today’s move indicates bearish reversal, which makes sense when considering investors are gradually buying into Fed’s rhetoric of transitory inflation. With market expecting the Fed to maintain easy monetary policies and not initial the taper talk during June’s meeting or even during the whole summer, Gold is likely to suffer until another impetus shows up. On the downside, $1815 will be the next key level to watch for.

Resistance: 1894, 1959, 2000

Support: 1846, 1822, 1790

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY is building on last Friday’s goodish rebound, climbed 0.35% on Monday. This pair is well fitted within its ascending channel and managed to regain 110 handle. Now there is a solid breakout to the upside, the buying bias will be here to stay until meeting yearly high of 110.8. On a larger timeframe, USDJPY stills shows a bullish trend after April’s pullback is proved to be temporary. Further in the north, stern resistance sits around 112 and 113.8.

Resistance: 110.8, 112, 113.8

Support: 108.7, 107.9, 106.7

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks climbed to record high as investors are shifting to believe Federal Reserve will maintain accommodative policies in upcoming months. The Nasdaq 100 Index gained more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was up only 0.06%. S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher with Health Care shares led the gains, and Financials were underperforming.

Commerce ministers from China and the US agreed to push forward trade and investment links. While the two nations are slowly resuming official contact after Joe Biden took office, it is still unclear what the US plans to do with the so-called ‘Phase One’ deal signed last year. “It’s positive in the sense that both countries are stepping up economic and trade communication, but no game-changing decisions or announcements have come out yet, I won’t be overly excited,” commented Alvin Tan, head of Asia currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is putting the strictest capital requirement for holding crypto assets on banks’ balance sheet. The panel proposed that a 1,250% risk weight be applied to bank’s exposure, meaning banks need to hold a dollar in capital for each dollar worth of crypto asset under the current 8% minimum capital requirement. The Committee is deeply concerned that the growth in these volatile assets could jeopardize global financial stability, thus the required capital will need to be sufficient to absorb a full write-off without exposing depositors and other senior creditors of the banks to a loss.

ECB kept policy rate unchanged, and here are Bloomberg’s key takeaways from its policy statement:

Main Pairs Movement:

EURUSD was on the back foot against the dollar greenback despite dollar negative mood. The Euro weakness could come from ECB’s announcement of larger monetary spending. Meanwhile, US CPI (MoM) in May climbed 0.6%, the second-largest advance in more than a decade. The inflation gauge showed steady growth in the costs of used vehicles, house, airfares, and apparel. According to the Labor Department, the rapid rise in used car prices account for 1/3 of total monthly advance in CPI. The Core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, the highest number since 1992. A better-than-expected inflation should press Federal Reserve to start tapering sooner, which bolsters the US dollar. But since we saw quite the opposite reaction in the market, it rather implies investors are buying into Fed’s transitory inflation narrative and dollar bearish bias could resume from here.

Cable temporarily put behind some of its concerns and ride with dollar weakness, gained 0.4% on Thursday. Aside from EU’s disagreement over the implementation of the Northern Irish protocol, UK is also facing a possible delay of its reopening. The Delta variant is finding its way to spread around the unvaccinated, the highly anticipated ‘Freedom Day’ will likely be postponed from June 21st to early July.

Technical Analysis:

NZDJPY (Daily Chart)

NZDJPY is still supported by 78.6% Fibonacci level around 78.7. Most of the gains from RBNZ hawkish shock have been erased by choppy trading sessions in the past two weeks. Price is retesting an upward trendline started from last November, and will likely cling to it given current uninspired market sentiment. A strong deviation to the upside is needed to keep the bullish bias alive. In the north, the nearest resistance sits around 80.1, next to 81.1.

Resistance: 80.1, 81.1, 82.2

Support: 78.7, 76.84, 75.5

USDCHF (Daily Chart)

USDCHF failed to extend beyond 0.899 as SMA20 remains to be a solid cap on this pair. There was a false breakout on SMA20 and it went straight to contest soft resistance at 0.904, but upward momentum quickly faded amid a lack of follow up demand. With the bears are back in the driver’s seat, USDCHF looks to close the day with a lower-low, which could provide an exit to recent consolidation phase. To the south, the immediate support lies around 0.885, followed by six-years low of 0.878.

Resistance: 0.904, 0.908, 0.916

Support: 0.885, 0.878

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold briefly touched $1870 after US CPI release, then quickly reversed back above $1890. We witnessed yet another strong defense from gold buyers, price did not even have a chance to pass the ascending trendline. Worth mentioning SMA20 is still a valid dynamic support line for the yellow metal. However, we are somewhat cautious on the direction of Gold in the near term given today’s positive correlated move in stocks and gold. Investors should be prudent to wait for a clear breakout, which could be provided by next week’s FOMC meeting.

Resistance: 1922, 1956, 2000

Support: 1870, 1890, 1847

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note that adjustment on following products due to Queen Birthday and Youth Day.

If you have any questions, our team will be happy to answer your questions.Please mail to trading@vtmarkets.com or contact the service online.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market was quiet on Tuesday as investors are waiting for the big CPI release on Thursday. The three big equity indices moved less than 0.1% at the end of the day. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to the lowest in a month, trading at 1.536%.

The economist who helped to shape Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation expectations says central bank needs to get their hands on cutting back its massive bond-purchase program. Brian Sack, former head of Fed Board of Governors two decades ago, says the so called 5Y 5Y forward breakeven inflation rate climbed to a level where further increases would be problematics for the central bank. The mentioned rate reached a seven-year high last month of 2.55%, which implies market participants expect inflation to be 2.55% in the next 5 years on average. Debates over inflation is heating up with economists like Lawrence Summers warns Biden’s infrastructure plan will overheat US economy, but Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggests the package wouldn’t be enough to cause an inflation over-shoot.

US is easing its travel advisories on many nations, including Canada, France, and Germany. The CDC lowered 61 countries from a ‘level 4’ discouraged all travel to a ‘level 3’ recommending travel under full vaccination, and 50 countries and territories from ‘level 2’ to ‘level 1’.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) asks Congress to authorize data collection on cryptocurrency transactions valued over $10,000. IRS’s Chief Charles Rettig estimates around $1 trillion tax generated in crypto space escapes from IRS each year. Perhaps a much urgent need for the data probing power is to crack down illicit usage of these digital currencies, which have been demanded increasingly by perpetrators of ransomware attacks on corporate computer networks.

Main Pairs Movement:

Moves in the forex space was dollar driven, with the dollar up and other currencies down. Volatility is extremely depressed as traders await for the Federal Reserve to throw something new at the market, until then, most pairs will stay in tight range.

Yen is the worst performer among the G-7 group so far this year. It depreciated 6% against the US dollar, 6.5% against Aussie, 7% against Kiwi, and 11.3% against the Canadian dollar. With developed economies racing to completely eliminate COVID-19, Japan is lagging significantly behind. ‘Only 2.8% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, and just 1% have had both shots of vaccine,’ according to Forbes. Japanese government is having a hard time carrying out their inoculation plan due to wide distrust of immunizations, which have been rooted within the country for decades. That being said, we will not be surprised to see further extension of emergency lockdowns and a postpone to summer Olympic game. As domestic recession lingers, Japanese investors are set to expand their search for yields abroad, and companies seek expansions in merger and acquisition overseas. These money outflows could further weigh down on the Japanese Yen.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD broke a two-month ascending trendline from downward, and the move was triggered by upbeat ADP data released last Thursday. The fact that the miss in NFP itself did not put the Euro back above the trendline showed traders are perhaps leaning towards a dollar favourable environment in coming weeks. As of current, price is capped by 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.22, which belongs to a broader consolidation range between 1.225 and 1.217. We expect trading to be sideways until Thursday’s US CPI tells otherwise.

Resistance: 1.22, 1.235, 1.246

Support: 1.21, 1.203

EURCHF (Daily Chart)

EURCHF is well placed within a downward tunnel since March. After rejected by big 1.1 hurdle, price now looks to contest another round number of 1.09, which marks the 28.2% Fibonacci level. We saw this pair had a decent W-formation, but failed to extend above 1.1, which prompted sell orders to pile in and validated a bullish reversal was immaterial. Bears should still be dominant in the medium term. Further on the downside, EURCHF could hit the lower-bound of a descending tunnel if 1.1 is breached.

Resistance: 1.1, 1.112

Support: 1.09, 1.074, 1.067

AUDNZD (Daily Chart)

AUDNZD recovered most of its loss from previous RBNZ’s hawkish shock. The antipodean pair managed to regain 1.072 on Tuesday. We thought defense at 1.072 could be stronger given the confluence of SMA20 and a horizontal resistance line. That being said, it is not far away from a previous trendline, which now could act as a dynamic resistance. We are sticking with our bearish view on this pair given a relatively more hawkish stance from RBNZ and better economic prospect in New Zealand. The jobless rate in New Zealand was 4.7% compared to 5.5% in Australia.

Resistance: 1.08, 1.1

Support: 1.065, 1.052, 1.04

Economic Data

Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically rolled-over as follow.

Please note:

• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.

• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.

• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.

• Clients should ensure that take profits and stop losses are adjusted before this rollover occurs.

If you have any questions, our team will be happy to answer your questions.Please mail to info@vtmarkets.com or contact the service online.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market was mixed as investors remain clueless about Fed’ upcoming move given last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data miss. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the red, down 0.08% and 0.36% respectively. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.23% as Biogen Inc. soared on its Alzheimer’s drug approval. Real Estate shares led the gains within S&P 500, while Industrials and Materials performed the worst.

The G-7 nations struck a deal on Saturday to push for a minimum 15% corporate tax. The accord requires large companies to pay more in countries where they operate rather than just where they’re headquartered. “It gives tech companies much more certainty, which is as valuable as lower tax rates, now companies can model out how the tax is going to impact them. It’s much harder to respond to patchwork of digital taxes and tit-for-tat trade disputes,” commented Andrew Silverman, government analyst at Bloomberg.

A report from home financing giant Fannie Mae showed Americans’ record-low willingness to buy home. The percentage of consumers believes now it is a good time to purchase a house dropped to 35% in May, the lowest since Fannie Mae began the survey a decade ago. Although jobs market is improving in the US, consumers fear that rising house prices may not be affordable to them in the near term.

The amount of cash parked at the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility is at record high of $486.1 billion on Monday. The money lend to the US central bank are earning 0% interest rate. This reveals commercial banks are in a dire situation by holding a ton of cash, but little investment options.

Main Pairs Movement:

The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer today. Investors are waiting for first-tier events to be out later this week, including the release of US CPI figures and the European Central Bank (ECB) statement on monetary policy.

The dollar index is falling for the second day in a row. Market participants seem continue to digest the NFP disappointment. The Treasury Bond yield is still lingering below 1.6%, while the Dow Jones dropped around 0.4%.

EURUSD has increased 0.52% since last Friday, while GBPUSD levitates few pips below the 1.42 figure. The Japanese pair approaches the 109 level, and commodity-linked currencies like AUDUSD and NZDUSD remain their uptrend, both gained around accumulated 1% in the past two trading days.

Gold once touched $1900 soon after the end of the North America Session, and then declined due to the lack of buying power.

Loonie pair closed positive due to the decrease in oil prices, both WTI and Brent fell at the start of the week.

Technical Analysis:

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie has consolidated between the 1.20 to 1.215 interval for 3 consecutive weeks. After the disappointing NFP data, the pair lost nearly half of its gain from the previous day last Friday, and the dimming hope of rebound seemed shattered. The MACD histogram shows a bullish trend ongoing, while RSI suggests that USDCAD faces a selling pressure. Amid the mixed market sentiment, maybe the BoC Rate Statement on Wednesday will provide investors a better view of the pair’s future movement.

Resistance: 1.215, 1.225, 1.237

Support: 1.20, 1.192

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

XAUUSD has fully recovered from its steep decline last Thursday, traded at $1899.57 as of writing. Benefit from the lower Treasury yield and absence of U.S. tapering policies, gold may keep its bullish momentum in the short run. Also, the RSI indicator is holding above 60, suggesting that the buyers still have the upper hand. The first resistance for the pair may appear at $1930, followed by $1960, the yearly high; for the downside, the latest floor $1860 may be supportive, then $1809 if breached.

Resistance: 1930, 1960

Support: 1860, 1809, 1756

USDCHF (Daily Chart)

Just boosted by the upbeat ADP research report last Thursday, USDCHF then experienced a severe decline the next day after the released NFP data failed to catch up. As swissy was again unable to break the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance, bears are likely to prevail in the short run. The pair now trades below 0.9, as well as the RSI indicator fell below 50. The instant support for swissy may appear at 0.8926, where 23.6% Fibonacci lies, and for the worse cases, the yearly low 0.8758 was its last barricade against further depreciation.

Resistance: 0.9031, 0.9115, 0.92

Support: 0.8926, 0.8758

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities advanced albeit disappointing Non-Farm Payroll data. Technology shares led the gains on Friday with the Nasdaq 100 index up 1.8%. Meanwhile S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. Traders struggle to find clues on the Fed’s next moves amid soft jobs data. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 1.56%.

The G-7 group is reaching a deal to implement a minimum corporate tax of 15% in international negotiations. Finance ministers are due to meet in London this weekend. The discussion includes topics like how to divide levies on multinational tech giants such as Facebook Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday that “clearly 15% is only a starting point, and if it is higher, it is better to have a level of rate that is higher than 15%.”

Bitcoin slipped as much as 9% after Elon Musk’s tweet implied about ‘breaking up’ with Bitcoin. The decline dented the leading crypto’s recovery from $33,500, dragged down other coins as well. Speculators are puzzled to Musk’s motives for sending out these tweets, especially when his missives are contradicting to each other.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar index dropped 0.4% after Friday’s Non-farm Payroll came lower than expected. The world´s largest economy gained only 559,000 jobs in May, below 664,000 expected. Concerns of sooner than expected tapering have been eased given the underperformance in jobs market. However, it does not imply inflation is slowing down in the US. In fact, the month-on-month average weekly earnings grew at 0.5%, more than doubled from forecast. Given the shortage in labour, employers are left with no choice but to offer higher pay to attract workers. In the long term, growth in wage should push inflation higher, but when inflation is running hot by stimulus injection, we wonder where this number may land as more people are returning to the workforce.

USDCAD dipped 0.25% despite disappointing Net Change in Employment in Canada. Labour market weakened for a second month, lost 68,000 jobs in May amid a third wave of COVID-19 virus spread. However, drags in the macro figure were offset by rallying oil price, which is one of Canada’s major exports. WTI and Brent crude oil futures continue to make new highs, gained 0.83% and 0.45% respectively.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

With the help of downbeat NFP data, Gold recovered more than half of yesterday’s slump. Early in the day, downward pressure managed to drive price to contest a rather steep ascending trendline, which could be interpreted as a validation to current bullish trend. Worth to note that daily RSI is cooled off by yesterday’s plunge, helping to alleviate some of the friction to move price further north, For now, gold buyers will keep the rein until it hits much tougher resistances like $1960 and $2000.

Resistance: 1960, 2000

Support: 1854, 1822, 1790

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

After two days of disruptive data releases from the US, USDJPY is back to its previous downward trajectory. Price is about to kiss the five-month ascending trendline, which survived multiple breakouts attempts since April, but will be under stressed as the 10-year US treasury yield failed to put a solid footing above 1.6%. A breakdown from this dynamic support line could open doors to further downside gain, and bearish reversal would be more convincing if we see USDJPY making a lower-low around 108.62. In the south, bears could revisit support at 107.9 in the near term, followed by distant 106.72.

Resistance: 109.7, 111, 112.1

Support: 107.9, 106.7

GBPUSD (Weekly Chart)

Cable is still trapped within a consolidation zone between 1.411 and 1.424, and it has gone absolutely nowhere in the past three weeks. In the weekly chart, GBPUSD looks to snap its four-consecutive win and marks a third rejection from 2018’s high of 1.424 in recent weeks. More importantly, the construction a Doji pattern could signal a potential correction in this pair. Looking to the downside, the immediate support sits around 1.41, followed by a big psychological level at 1.4.

Resistance: 1.42, 1.437, 1.464

Support: 1.41, 1.4, 1.382

Economic Data