Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks climbed as dip buyers resurfaced at the end of a week marked by a surge in global volatility.

All major groups in the S&P 500 advanced, while the NYSE FANG+ Index of giants such as Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. halted a five-day slide. Chinese shares listed in the U.S. rallied Friday, but were still on pace for their longest streak of weekly losses in a decade. The dollar rose for a fifth consecutive session. Treasuries fell.

Equities trimmed their decline for the week after being rattled by speculation the recovery could lose momentum just as central banks get ready to reduce support measures. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said he’s open to adjusting his view that the Fed should start tapering its asset-purchase program sooner rather than later if the delta variant persists and hurts economic progress.

While risks to the global economy are mounting, money managers in search of returns are sticking to equities. U.S. stock-fund data collected before the Fed signaled it could potentially start tapering this year showed investors have confidence in policy support to buy the dip, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

Main Pairs Movement:

The US dollar failed to climb higher, starting to decline during American session on Friday. At the time of writing, the greenback is losing 0.07% on the day at 93.49. The fall is likely due to the downward correction in US dollar, this along with the market mood improved heading to the weekend, caused the dollar losing its strength. Investors now focus on next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium as more details about the timeline of US bond tapering expected to be released. A hawkish speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can drive the US dollar up.

GBP/USD and AUD/USD both dropped on Friday, trading at 1.3621 and 0.7139, respectively. GBP/USD recorded a monthly low at 1.360 at the beginning of the American trading hours. As the UK Retail Sale released today disappointed, with a drop of 2.5% in the last month, against the market’s expected 0.4% growth. EUR/USD advanced today, now trading at 1.1698, a 0.2% gain for the day.

USD/JPY declined during Asia session, but then rebounded and recovered its losses from the day, now hovering around 109.81 at the time of writing.

Gold priced edged up on Friday, now trading at 1782.47 at the time of writing. WTI keep falling for seven consecutive days, reaching a three-month low at 61.95. The crude oil slide is owing to the fears of slower demand due to increasing cases of Delta variant around the world.

Technical Analysis:

AUDUSD (4-hour Chart)

The AUD/USD pair dropped to the lowest level since November 2020 on Friday, then slightly picked up the losses during the North American session. The pair is trading around 0.7135 at the time of writing. For technical aspect, RSI indicator 27 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is oversold now and selling pressure is too high, traders should pay attention to whether the downward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lied under 20 level which shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as the pair failed to break the 0.7181 resistance line. If the price drops below the 0.7106 mark, it will open the door for additional near-term losses. The market focus now will be the Jackson Hole symposium next week as traders look for more clues about bond tapering.

Resistance: 0.7181, 0.7270, 0.7389

Support: 0.7106, 0.6991

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

The USD/CAD pair was trading higher on Friday, but then pulled back during North American session. The pair is now trading at 1.2846 at the time of writing. For technical aspect, RSI indicator 70 figures as of writing, suggesting that the market is overbought now, and chances are high that the upward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line lied above 70 level, which shows that the market is in a strong position.

In conclusion, we think market will be tepid bearish, as the pair failed to break above the 1.2949 resistance line. The previous resistance now becomes support line at 1.2807. On Friday, Canada released its June Retail Sales, which rose by 4.2% on a monthly basis, less than what the market had expected of 4.4%. But the weaker-than-expected reading did not pushed the USD/CAD pair to a higher level.

Resistance: 1.2949, 1.3173

Support: 1.2807, 1.2649, 1.2475, 1.2422

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair took a surge in the middle of the American trading hours on Friday, then retreated modestly as the pair now trading at 1.1695. For technical aspect, RSI indicator 45 figures as of writing, suggesting there is no obvious trend for the pair now, the selling power is slightly stronger than the buying power. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line lied under 30 level shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bullish as long as the 1.166 support line holds, as the pair is trying to test the 1.1753 resistance line. A break above that level could leads the pair to advance higher, and the next resistance line sits at 1.1805. For EUR/USD traders, the focus now shifts to the German Purchasing Managers Index releasing next Monday, as it will provide an update on Euro-zone macro conditions.

Resistance: 1.1753, 1.1805

Support: 1.1666, 1.1603

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stock trading was volatile ahead of Friday’s options expiration. The S&P 500 closed higher after swinging between gains and losses throughout most of the session, while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) was on track for its biggest weekly surge since January. Dow Jones slid 0.19% to 34894.12, and Nasdaq rallied 0.11% to 14541.79. An earlier equity slide was driven by anxiety over the withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus, the coronavirus and global supply chains.

The Swiss National Bank appears to have intervened in the currency market to weaken the franc, with the amount of cash commercial lenders hold at the institution increasing by more than a billion francs for a second week running.

Sight deposits, as the holdings are known, increased by 1.04 billion francs ($1.14 billion) to 714.6 billion francs in the week ending Aug. 13, data on Monday showed.

“Such a rise does look like interventions,” said Credit Suisse Group AG economist Maxime Botteron.

A spokeswoman for the SNB declined to comment on the data.

Along with negative interest rates, interventions are one of the SNB’s tools to limit an undue appreciation of the “highly valued” franc. After a particularly heavy engagement in foreign-exchange markets during the initial phase of the pandemic, the SNB got labeled a currency manipulator by the U.S. Treasury last year. The designation has since been removed.

Main Pairs Movement:

The US Dollar advanced on Thursday, trading at 93.570 at the time of writing, the highest level since November 2020. The bull-movement was a continuation of July’s FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday, as the market expects that the Fed will start asset tapering later this year. On top of that, better than expected US employment-related figures also added to the dollar’s strength. Therefore, the US dollar was pushed higher against most major rivals.

EUR/USD and AUD/USD both touched its lowest level since November 2020 on Thursday, trading at 1.1675 and 0.7146, respectively. GBP/USD also dropped to a monthly low at 1.3637. A scarce UK economic calendar and Federal Reserve taper talks news are weighing on the cable.

USD/JPY opened higher during Asia session, but then pulled back from its weekly high, now hovering around 109.79 at the time of writing.

Gold price declined during North American session, mainly due to the dollar’s strength with Feds’ talks about bond tapering. WTI dropped to a monthly low at $62.61, later bounced back towards $63.87. The crude oil slide is owing to US dollar strength and fears of slower demand due to Covid-19 cases rising.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

At the time of writing, GBP/USD extended the decline and fell to monthly low at 1.3661. US dollar is still benefiting from the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19, China’s corporate crackdown and the turmoil in Afghanistan. In addition, expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its asset purchases later this year pushed the US dollar to a nine-month high on Thursday. This was seen as a key factor that continued exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 24 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is oversold now and selling pressure is too high, traders should pay attention to whether the downward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lied under 20 level which shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish, the downward trend may persist and test the 1.3571 support. For GBP/USD traders, the next data to look out for is the UK Retail Sales released on Friday, a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the British Pound. Also, more information is expected at the Jackson Hole symposium in August 26-28.

Resistance: 1.3910, 1.4001

Support: 1.3572, 1.3430

USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)

The USD/JPY pair rose to its weekly high at 110.22 on Thursday but then failed to preserve its bullish momentum. At the time of writing, the pair was trading at 109.80. The sharp decline witnessed in major European equity indexes allowed the demand of Japanese Yen to increase on Thursday. On the other hand, after the release of the FOMC’s July meeting minutes, the US Dollar continues to push higher as the market still assume that the Fed will start asset tapering before the end of the year. Currently, the dollar is trading at 93.461, its strongest level since November 2020.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 51 figures as of writing, suggesting that the buying power and selling power are almost equal. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line lied above 70 level, which shows that the market is overbought now and chances are high that the price will continue to go up.

In conclusion, we think market will be tepid bullish, as the US dollar strength is likely to hold. On Friday, Japan’s National Core Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be released, traders can follow the data closely to see what kind of effect it will bring to the Japanese Yen.

Resistance: 110.80, 111.66

Support: 109.07, 108.72

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold prices started to decline lower in Thursday’s North American session with pressure from a stronger US Dollar. The DXY index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of currencies, is now at a yearly high of 93.558. The XAU/USD pair is now trading at 1778.14. The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday revealed that the central bank is on track to start asset tapering later this year, meanwhile, pushing the US dollar to the highest level since November 2020. This was seen as a factor that put pressure on dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 48 figures as of writing, suggesting there is no obvious trend for the pair now. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line lied around 55 level shows that the market is in a relatively neutral position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as long as the 1795.58 resistance line holds. For XAU/USD traders, the focus now shifts to next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak. Hawkish tones will likely continue to underpin the US dollar and putting pressure against gold prices.

Resistance: 1795.58, 1834.12

Support: 1741.68, 1717.81, 1690.61

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks slid as the Federal Reserve signaled that a decision on a reduction of its bond-buying program could happen in 2021. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed.

The S&P 500 extended losses into a second day after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July gathering said most officials agreed last month they could start slowing the pace of asset purchases later this year. While the record shows they don’t yet have agreement on the timing or pace of tapering, most had reached consensus on keeping the composition of any reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases proportional.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity next week to delve into the policy and economic outlook, during the Jackson Hole symposium — the central bank’s most prominent annual conference.

Earlier Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he would like to see the tapering of the asset-purchase program done by the first quarter of 2022. Several other officials, including Robert Kaplan of Dallas and Esther George of Kansas City, have urged the central bank to begin removing stimulus as soon as the September meeting. Chair Powell and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida have suggested they would like to see further progress before considering a move to taper.

Main Pairs Movement:

The US Dollar fell sharply right after the release of FOMC meeting minutes, but then the greenback rebounded, hovering around 93.13 as time of writing. The FOMC minutes did note that conditions would likely warrant a reduction in the pace of asset purchases in coming months, but cautious language remains. The Federal Reserve indicated that they are in no rush of bond tapering.

The USD/JPY pair climbed to a weekly high of 110.065 during US trading hours but then dipped lower after the FOMC meeting minutes released.

EUR/USD reaches daily high at 1.1742 after FOMC meeting minutes released, then retraced towards 1.1700. As time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is moving sideways and leaning on 1.3755 after advancing to a daily high of 1.3785.

Gold edged lower after advancing to $1,790.47, ending the day in the red at around $1,787.32. Crude oil prices also fell on Wednesday, as the coronavirus remains a concern for the outlook for the energy complex amidst a strong US dollar.

Technical Analysis:

AUDUSD (4-hour Chart)

The AUD/USD pair touched its lowest level since November 2020 at 0.7231 on Wednesday as it extends the decline following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes released this Tuesday. AUD/USD remains under pressure as the RBA Minutes warns that the current virus outbreaks and lockdowns had interrupted the recovery, and the exchange rate may face a further decline ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled for August 26 to 28 amid the diverging paths for monetary policy.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 26 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is oversold now, the downward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lied under 20 level which shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish, and chances are high that the downward trend will maintain. AUD/USD may continue to drop, and the update to Australia’s employment report on Wednesday may keep the exchange rate under pressure as job growth is expected to contract for the second time this year.

Resistance: 0.7381, 0.7427

Support: 0.7222

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD extended the decline and fell to 1.1693, reaching the lowest level since November 2020, as the pair falls for the third consecutive day after a brief recovery. It remains under pressure hovering around 1.1700. As for the US dollar, despite the weaker retail sales reported earlier in the week, the US Dollar picked up some defensive momentum, which put extended pressure on EUR/USD.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 32 figures as of writing, suggesting bear-movement ahead. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lied below 20 level which shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish since the pair has already broken the 1.170 support line. The downward trend may persist for a while, and the next support should be 1.160, which was key at stopping bears bringing the pair lower back in November 2020. Traders should await the outcome of the FOMC minutes released this Wednesday, and search for clues about a tapering timeline for the purchase program which may trigger sharp moves.

Resistance: 1.1805, 1.1909

Support: 1.1705, 1.1603

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

The USD/CAD pair reaches a monthly high at 1.2653 at the time of writing. As the price trades above yesterday’s high, this could open the door for a move towards 1.2800. After the Canada Core Consumer Price Index released this Tuesday, the price of USD/CAD reached a low of 1.2600 on an inflation rise in Canada, inflation hits 3.3% from 2.7% in the month of June. The base scenario for bond tapering in Canada remains on the table.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 65 figures as of writing, suggesting bear-movement ahead. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lied above 80 level which shows that the market is in a strong position, the pair is overbought now and chances are high that it will continue to go up.

In conclusion, we think market will be bullish as long as the 1.2653 resistance line holds. Although the US dollar started to weaken against its major rivals after minutes of the FOMC’s July policy meeting revealed today, it was widely believed that the Fed will start asset tapering soon this year, so the prospect of the greenback is still bullish.

Resistance: 1.2653, 1.2763

Support: 1.2475, 1.2422, 1.2253

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks dropped, while the dollar rose amid concern that the global economic recovery will lose momentum with further shutdowns to contain a fast-spreading pandemic. The S&P 500 snapped a five-day rally. Giants Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. slid at least 1.7%, while Home Depot Inc. tumbled after the retailer posted weaker-than-expected results. Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. faced another wave of selling as authorities in Beijing ramped up their crackdown on some of the nation’s largest companies. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Baidu Inc. and JD.com Inc.slumped more than 2.9%.

Traders watched closely Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during a town hall with educators and students, where he noted the Fed’s “powerful tools” have limitations. Powell also said that Covid-19 will likely stay “for a while,” and we’re not going back to a pre-pandemic economy. Policy makers will gather next week for the Jackson Hole symposium, the central bank’s most-prominent annual conference.

American homebuilder sentiment sank to a 13-month low in August amid high costs as well as continuing supply shortages. U.S. retail sales fell in July by more than forecast, reflecting a steady shift in spending toward services and indicating consumers may be growing more price conscious as inflation picks up. While factory production strengthened the most in four months, manufacturers continued to face higher input prices and a near record number of job vacancies.

The U.S. government is poised to being offering booster shots as soon as next month, with the country facing a renewed wave of infections fueled by the highly transmissible delta variant. New Zealand will enter a lockdown after reporting its first community transmission since February. Switzerland recorded its biggest jump in infections in months, while South Africa expects a fourth wave to start in early December.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar rallied on the back of risk-aversion, exacerbated by dismal US data. US Retail Sales fell by 1.1% in July, much worse than anticipated.

Commodity-linked currencies were the worst performers, with Aussie down to a fresh 2021 low of 07242. Loonie peaked at 1.2649, its highest in almost a month. NTD/USD plummeted around 100 pips once to below the 0.6900 threshold, after the New Zealand government announced a lockdown over just one Covid case.

Upbeat UK employment data fell short of backing Cable that trades near a daily low of 1.3725. The EUR/USD pair is once again poised to challenge the 1.1700 threshold.

Gold edged lower after advancing to $1,795.60 a troy ounce, ending the day in the red at around $1,786.00. Crude oil prices also lost ground with WTI currently trading at around $66.55 a barrel, and Brent at $69.10.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

GBP/USD came off to its lowest level for three weeks this Tuesday, staying under 1.38 level, despite a bumper UK labor market report that showed an 4.7% UK unemployment rate in June, which is lower than economists had expected. In addition, reports showed that UK employment up to 95K, which is also more than economists had expected in May. However, the British pound was being pressured by worries that job losses will rise after the furlough scheme ends in September. This, along with disappointment from the UK Claimant Count Change, overshadowed an unexpected fall in Britain’s unemployment rate and stronger wage growth data.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 25 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is oversold now, the downward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lies under 45 level which shows that the market is in a relatively neutral position.

In conclusion, we think market will be mildly bullish as long as the 1.3720 support line holds. UK inflation data released on Wednesday will be next focus for traders, a larger fall might help persuade the Bank of England that a tightening of UK monetary policy is unnecessary near-term and therefore weaken GBP/USD further.

Resistance: 1.3895, 1.4001

Support: 1.3720 , 1.3572

NZDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The NZD/USD pair is suffering heavy losses on Tuesday. It fell sharply during the Asian trading hours and touched its weakest level in three weeks at 0.6905. The NZD came under strong selling pressure after New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a snap three-day nationwide lockdown in light of the first community Covid case detected since February in Auckland. On the other hand, the greenback is capitalizing on safe-haven flows and causing NZD/USD to stay deep in the negative territory.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 25 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is oversold now, the downward trend may reverse in the near future. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, the fast line lies around 20 which shows that the market is in a weak position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bullish, and chances are high that the pair will rebound from Tuesday’s tumble. For this week, the focus will be on the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, the three-day nationwide lockdown could force the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to adopt a cautious tone and delay the tightening.

Resistance: 0.7048

Support: 0.6894, 0.6881

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The pair XAU/USD is falling on Tuesday, ending a four-day streak of daily gains. Gold approached earlier to the $1,795 level before turning to the downside. A rally of the US dollar across the board weighed on gold, which made the metal retreating from weekly highs. Weaker-than-expected economic data from the US did not affect the dollar. Even US yields rose after the report. Retail sales fell 1.1% in July, against expectations of a decrease of 0.2%.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 59 figures as of writing, suggesting tepid bull-movement ahead. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line over 90 level shows that the market is in a strong position.

In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as long as the 1795 resistance line holds. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. Gold traders should scan for Fed speakers and their outlooks for the US economy, covid risks and looking for clues for when the Fed will taper.

Resistance: 1795, 1831

Support: 1770, 1741, 1717, 1690

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks recovered earlier losses on Monday to narrowly eke out fresh record levels as investors looked past geopolitical and growth concerns. S&P 500 turned slightly positive in the final hours of trading, logging a record high. Dow Jones also reached a record close, gaining 0.31% (or 110.02) during the day, while Nasdaq held lower, dipped 0.20% (or -29.13).

Desperate scenes played out at Kabul’s international airport on Monday as thousands rushed to exit Afghanistan after Taliban fighters took control of the capital, with the Associated Press reporting at least seven people were killed in the melee.

With land borders now under the control of the militant group, the airport is the last remaining exit point and there are fears that option may close soon. Videos circulating on social media showed hundreds of people swarming the tarmac as countries including the U.S. seek to evacuate their diplomats and other nationals.

The panic in Afghanistan’s largest city reflects the Taliban’s rapid territorial advance, returning the fundamentalist group to power two decades after the U.S. military invaded and kicked it out.

President Joe Biden addressed Americans from the White House as criticism mounted over his handling of the crisis. Biden said the U.S. mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to be “nation building,” only protecting America from a terrorist attack.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar posted uneven gains against high-yielding rivals but edged lower against safe-haven ones as risk-aversion dominated financial markets at the beginning of the week. Poor Chinese data, tensions in the Middle East, the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant in the US and soft macroeconomic data, were behind the dismal mood.

The euro pair bounced off 1.1800 and settles around 1.1770 as of writing, while Cable stabilized around 1.3840. Commodity-linked currencies suffered the most, with CAD depreciated 0.5% against the greenback, Aussie dropped nearly 0.5% to around 0.7335, and NZD/USD traded at the 0.7025 level.

Gold price continued its last week’s recovery, ending the day at $1,787 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices rebounded from daily lows but still finished the day in the red, with WTI currently trading at $67.40 a barrel, and Brent at $69.60.

The macroeconomic calendar was scarce, with the focus on US Retail Sales, to be out on Tuesday. A depressing number could further spur a market panic.

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP (4-hour Chart)

EUR/GBP remains pointing lower but has been unable to make a strong break below 0.85180. The UK consumer price index releasing on Wednesday is expected to show inflation easing back from the levels seen in June but still above the BoE’s target of 2%. Also, the Office for National Statistics will release the latest employment and unemployment data. These releases will have the ability to move Sterling if they differ from market expectations.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 58 figures as of writing, suggesting tepid bull-movement ahead. If we take a look at Stochastic Oscillator, it is approaching the overbought zone and a golden cross shows that the pair may climb further.

In conclusion, we think market will be mildly bullish, and the pair may have a chance of breaking the 0.8524 resistance line. However, a break below the August low at 0.8450 may well see the pair slide further lower.

Resistance: 0.8524, 0.8558

Support: 0.8450

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD climbed to multi-day tops, around the 1.2572 region in the last hour. A combination of factors assisted the USD/CAD pair to catch some fresh bids on the first day of a new trading week. As for CAD specifically, its correlation to oil prices is a probable factor leading to weakness in the currency. This, along with a modest pickup in the US dollar demand, provided a modest lift to the major.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 69 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is rising rapidly, the trend may reverse in the near future and traders should look for opportunities to sell. As for the Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line exceeds 70 shows that the market is in a strong position.

In conclusion, the market will be bearish as long as the 1.2590 resistance line holds. For this week, the focus will be on July’s inflation data in Canada where traders will be looking for signals that will leave the Bank of Canada on track to end its asset purchase programme by the end of the year.

Resistance: 1.2590

Support: 1.2489, 1.2423

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

After edging lower toward $1,770 at the start of a new week, the XAU/USD pair regained its traction during the U.S. trading hours on Monday and was last seen rising 0.4% at $1,786. Additionally, a 5.8% decline was witnessed in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield put additional weight on the greenback’s shoulders. As time of writing, the 10-year US T-bond yield is staying flat at 1.270, helping the USD stay resilient against its rivals. The disappointing consumer confidence data from the US triggered a USD selloff last Friday which made XAU/USD rebounded off critical support at the yearly lows last week.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 71 figures as of writing, suggesting the market is rising rapidly, so traders should evaluate whether the trend will reverse downwards. As for the Stochastic Oscillator, a fast line exceeds 90 shows that the market is in a strong position.

For current stage, the pair XAU/USD is in an upward trend, trying to reach the $1,800 level. On the other hand, the downward correction could extend to $1,760. A daily close below that level could open the door for additional losses toward $1,750.

Resistance: 1790, 1831

Support: 1762, 1750, 1717, 1690

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks eked out another all-time high and Treasury yields declined after a report showed consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade. The dollar weakened and crude oil slumped. The S&P 500 closed at a record for fourth consecutive session while trading within a 0.2% range Friday. The consumer staples and real estate sectors led gains, while energy and financial shares declined. The benchmark index has almost doubled since the pandemic lows reached in March 2020, with the energy sector the biggest gainer during that period. Walt Disney rose after its streaming subscriptions beat estimates. European stocks posted the longest winning streak since 1999.

The U.S. equity rally slowed Friday after data showed the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell by 11 points to 70.2, the lowest since December 2011. The slump in confidence risks a more pronounced slowing in economic growth in coming months should consumers rein in spending. The recent deterioration in sentiment highlights how rising prices and concerns about the delta variant’s potential impact on the economy are weighing on Americans.

The easing in the energy sector rally has also raised concern. On Tuesday, the energy sector capped a 19-day streak in which no member of the index traded above its 50-day moving average, the second-longest span since the late-1950s, data compiled by Sentiment Trader show. That’s something that hasn’t happened since the summer of 2001 when Enron and its ensuing bankruptcy was pressuring the energy complex.

Main Pairs Movement:

Crude oil futures eased in New York. The latest Covid-19 wave is leading to tighter curbs on movement across the globe, though there are mixed assessments on its impact. The International Energy Agency reduced its demand forecasts for the rest of the year, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts only a transient hit to consumption.

A gauge of the dollar retreated most in a month while haven currencies held on to broad gains as investors grew more concerned about economic prospects after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade.

Dollar remained weak as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve may continue with its dovish stance following a plunge in consumer sentiment Friday and a drop in inflation earlier this weekFed officials including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans had earlier said conditions for tapering may soon be achieved. A measure of currency-market volatility declined to a two-month low on Friday

The Norwegian krone outperformed most peers as next week’s Norges Bank meeting comes into focus.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

GBP/USD pair extend daily rebound during the U.S. trading session after following a consolidation phase around 1.38 in earlier session, as of writing the pair was up 0.44% in the day at 1.3869. The renewed greenback on disappointing consumer confidence data from the U.S. deem to be fueling pound for upside traction.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 54 figures as of writing, suggesting tepid bull-movement ahead. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator slightly head north and 60 long SMA indicator show flat movement in recently.

In lights of aforementional, we think market will successive choppy in range between 1.3896 and 1.38 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The euro dollar rose forward and printed a weekly high at 1.1800 after yesterday miserable performance, as of writing, EUR/USD under 1.18 threshold at 1.1795 around with 0.56% gains in the day market. The pair is propping up as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure across the board. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, it is kicking off to accelerate to downside. The index tumble unexpectedly to 70.2, the lowest level since 2011.

From the technical perspective, RSI indicator has reached 66 figures, suggesting bullish momentum ahead. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator has change it way to upside and 60 long SMA indicator remaining negative way.

For the market movement, euro dollar finally breakthrough the upside resistance at 1.1755 level in the daily market which we expect a critical barricade. Moreover, short term SMA indicator support short term upside traction momentum for the pair. All in all, we expect market will continue bullish expectation and movement at least for short term. On upside, 1.18 level will be the psychological resistance for the pair, and 1.1848 following. On sideway, 1.1755 remain a critical price area for euro fiber. If price reverse to the bottom side below 1.1755, next critical support level will be 1.17

Resistance: 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.1755, 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold price edged up by more than 1.4% on Friday, boosted by lower U.S. yields and weaker greenback. Gold trading at $1776.6 after resisted by 1780 threshold, the highest level in a week. U.S. yields tumble after the latest economic numbers. The 10-year dropped under 1.3% at 1.293 with 5% losses. In the late of the week, gold has erased weekly losses and is in positive territory after a reversal of $100 from the Monday flash plummet low.

For technical side, RSI indicator record 69 figures as of writing, suggesting bullish momentum at current stage. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upward movement and 60 long SMA indicator retaining south way movement.

For current stage, RSI indicator is showing close to over bought territory that will restrict the upside traction. Therefore, we expect 1792 level is a pivotal resistance for the sell side position. For down side, we think short term support level will be 1761 and 1730 following behide.

Resistance: 1792, 1830,5

Support: 1761, 1730,1700

Economic Data

Daily Position Report

Market Focus

U.S. stocks set another record high even as the S&P 500 Index settles into the narrowest trading range since before the Covid pandemic roiled global financial markets. Health care and technology shares helped push the S&P to a closing high for a third consecutive session and for the 47th time this year. Micron Technology led chipmakers lower amid concern over the market for memory chips. Amid cautious sentiments, Nasdaq rose 0.35%, and Dow Jones gained just 0.04%.

The head of the Federal Trade Commission said antitrust enforcers should more frequently move to block mergers that threaten competition rather than relying on traditional remedies to fix deals and then approve them, a view that may weigh on a major acquisition by defense giant Lockheed Martin Corp.

FTC Chair Lina Khan outlined her concerns about common measures used by the Justice Department and the FTC to settle merger investigations in a letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who had written to the agency about deals in the defense industry.

The comments come as the FTC is investigating Lockheed’s $4.4 billion deal to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc., a takeover seen as an early litmus test of whether President Joe Biden will keep mergers among defense contractors in check.

Khan said she’s skeptical of the practice of imposing conditions on how companies operate, known as behavioral remedies, but also said asset divestitures, the most common way that companies win approval for mergers, can be problematic.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar advanced against most of its mayor rivals as the market’s mood soured. Higher than expected US PPI revived concerns about heating inflation and a possible Federal Reserve’s response. Still, the greenback gains were tepid and uneven.

The euro pair and USDJPY lingering around the familiar levels, while cable bounced off 1.3800 and settle slightly above that level as of writing. Commodity-linked currencies lost ground against their American peer, as Loonie extended north, and both antipodean pairs edged lower. Overall, currencies followed the lead of Wall Street, which seesawed between gains and losses to end the day mostly in the red.

Gold is unchanged on a daily basis, trading around $1,750 a troy ounce heading into the Friday opening. Crude oil prices slightly dropped, with WTI failing to breach $70.00 resistance and closing the day at $68.90, and Brent at $71.15. US bond yields closed mixed. The 10-year US Treasury note settled at 1.36%.

Technical Analysis:

USDCHF (4-hour Chart)

The USD/CHF extend the upside traction above 0.92 and ahead of month-long peak as investor ignore Producer Price Index(PPI) rose to 7.8% in July from 7.3% in June in came in higher than estimation, pair printed 0.9235 with 0.16% gains as of writing. In the meantime, the benchmark 10 years U.S. Treasury bond yields is up more than 2% hover on Thursday, additional propel the pair stay afloat in the positive territory. For market data, the Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for August will be featured in the U.S. economic docket.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator drag down from over bought area to 69 as of writing, suggesting torrid bullish sentiment ahead. For moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMAs indicator are both toward to north way.

In lights of aforementional, we expect market is facing a powerful resistance on 0.925 which base on price action. On the other hands, RSI indicator also shows a nearly over bought sentiment if market succesive rally up, then hold momentum back. Therefore, we foresee market will choppy in range between 0.9208 and 0.925 if price could continue hold above first support level. On contrast, it really hard to find a price cluster for downside support. Since, if price failed to defend first short term support, then price will forward to lower stage.

Resistance: 0.925, 0.927

Support: 0.9208, 0.9197, 0.915

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair shows bottomed at 1.721 then bounced to the upside trimming losses. It rose back above 1.173 on a quite session. It still remains in negative territory but off lows dollar’s momentum evaporates. The DXY index is still up for the day, but it printed slow movement at 93 threshold as greenback peaked after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims dropped as expected to 375K while fell under 3 million for the first time since the pandemic.

From the technical perspective, RSI indicator recovered from over sought territory and printed 39 figures, suggesting s bearish momentum ahead. For moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMA indicator are both heading to negative side.

As our mention previously, we expected if price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows that eyes on 1.17. In the day market, we see euro fiber was blocked by critical upper resistance at 1.1755 then turn it head back down slightly. All in all, we expect 1.17 will be the final support level for bid buyer. If break through the 1.17 level, then price will ahead to lower stage.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

The USD/CAD pair edged higher during the U.S. trading session and was last seen rising 0.22% on the day at 1.2526 level as of writing. Despite the recorvery witnessed following a two-day decline, pairs movement was restricted by a lack of high-tier macroeconomic data release. On the other hands, crude oil price trading to negative side under $69 per barrel and fail to provide directional clue to commodities-linked loonie.

For technical side, RSI indicator record 49 figures as of writing, suggesting slightly bearish movement but lack of direction. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upwind momentum and 60 long SMA indicator shows north way momentum.

All in all, we think market is stucking in a modest range between 1.2485 and 1.2587. On upside, we see 1.2587 as critical resistance as neckline of a slightly pattern. On downside, a weakness and short term is eye on 1.2485, following a pivotal support level on 1.2425

Resistance: 1.2587, 1.2733, 1.28

Support: 1.2485, 1.2425, 1.23

Economic Data

Daily Position Report

PNL Changed (System Time 8/11 00:00– 8/11 23:50) Total PNL During the Day

Clients’ Gains were 1.317m ten minutes ahead of EOD.

Clients Profit

Clients Loss

Client Net Position

BOOK Exposure & Top PNL at EOD

Market Focus

US markets were mixed after the inflation report was not as bad as feared. The Dow Jones jumped 220.3 points, a new record high. The S&P 500 edged higher to 444.70 while the Nasdaq 100 closed with 0.1% lower. The consumer prices jumped 5.4% in July; however, the core inflation, which excluded energy and food, rose by 0.3% last month, less than the expectation of 0.4%.

According to Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, the central band should start tapering its monthly purchases of bonds in October. As the economy and employment become more healthier, the fed should be comfortable pulling back on the stimulus.

US President Joe Biden has pledged to wean off the fossil fuels and has called been more urgent. At the same time, Joe Biden’s administration has called Saudi Arabia and its allies to produce and unleash more crude oil onto global markets.

Main Pairs Movement:

Crude oil future edged higher on Wednesday after Joe Biden’s administration mentioned that it would not call on US crude oil producer to increase oil output. In the meantime, the administration indicated that the output from OPEC+ is not enough, might potentially harming global recovery. As a result, the crude oil price closed at 69.25, up 1.41% on Wednesday.

The Aussie closed higher at 0.73745 amid the concerns of the US inflation report and the resurgence of new variant delta cases. However, the currency pair seems to consolidate in a tight range as the decline of iron- ore prices and the protracted NSW lockdown, according to National Australia Bank.

The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the dollar declined after the US inflation report, easing fears that the Fed might soon pull back stimulus. Gold edged as much as 1.5%, as closed in $1751 on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Sterling caught some aggressive bids during the early New York session and shot to fresh daily tops, around the 1.3870-75 region in reaction to mixed U.S. inflation data. The headline CPI decelerate to 0.5% gains in July from the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous month. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM against 0.4% expected and June’s 0.9%. This, along with Fed president comments, weghed on the dollar. For technical aspect, RSI indicator rebound to 51 figure, suggesting neutral momentum. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator turn static movement and 60 long SMA seems slightly downward.

In lights of aforementional, we still expect this pair will continue slightly move to sideway. If price fall ahead, the first immediately support level will eyes on 1.385 level in short term and 1.38 level follow. If price could go over the last highs spot which around 1.395, it will heading to over 1.4 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair recovered from a fresh low at 1.1705, yet the recoverystaled around 1.175 threshold, maintaining the tepid tone at 1.17368 as of writing. On Thursday, June industrial production data will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, the weekly initial jobless claims and producer price index data from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. From the technical perspective, RSI indicator recovered from over sought territory and printed 44 figures, suggesting slightly bearish momentum. For moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMA indicator are both heading to negative side.

As our mention previously, we expected if price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows that eyes on 1.17. In the day market, we see euro fiber was blocked by critical upper resistance at 1.1755 then turn it head back down slightly. All in all, we expect 1.17 will be the final support level for bid buyer. If break through the 1.17 level, then price will ahead to lower stage.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold clings to strong recovery gains on Wednesday as renewed dollar weakness helped it gain traction in American session, after released CPI data. As of writing, gold was up 1.4% on the day at $1753. The U.S. dollar index is currently down 0.2% on a daily basis at 92.88. At the same time, benchmark 10 years U.S. Treasury bond yields is down 2%. For technical side, RSI indicator record 48.5 figures as of writing, suggesting slightly bearish movement but lack of direction. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upside momentum and 60 long SMA indicator shows south way momentum.

In light of price action, we see market literally rebound from rock bottom days ago to current stage as market revival from overly sell side sentiment. If momentum continue toward to downside, the first critical will on 1730. On up way, we expect 1751 will be strong resistance.

Resistance: 1751.5, 1792, 1830

Support: 1730, 1700, 1682

Economic Data

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