Raising the Bar in 2025: VT Markets Delivers Its Strongest Trading Month Yet

Record-breaking performance at highlights VT Markets’ momentum in its 10th anniversary year

15 May 2025, Sydney, Australia – VT Markets, a leading global multi-asset broker, has recorded its strongest-ever monthly trading volume, reaching 720BN in April 2025. This milestone reflects the VT Market’s accelerated growth trajectory and influence across global financial markets. It also sets the tone for what promises to be a transformative year as VT Markets enters its 10th anniversary with renewed ambition and elevated client focus.

This trading record coincides with the unveiling of VT Markets’ 10th anniversary plans, officially announced on April 22, 2025. Marking a decade of rapid growth and global impact, the year-long celebration will feature exclusive promotions, offers, and engagement activities with our global community.

As volatility ripples across major asset classes, traders are actively seeking a platform that offers both speed and reliability. VT Markets has emerged as the broker of choice  — trusted for its ultra-fast execution, real-time analytics, and client-centric tools that empower users to act decisively in fast-moving markets. In a world where opportunity is measured in milliseconds, VT Markets continues to deliver the performance edge traders need.

VT Markets continues to see exponential growth across regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, with 20% growth in daily active users. The platform’s multilingual support and culturally localized outreach strategies have deepened its relevance in emerging markets, while institutional volumes also surged thanks to deeper liquidity pools and ultra-low-latency trade execution.

“Sharing this milestone with our clients and partners is especially meaningful as it represents more than just numbers — it’s a reflection of the strength behind our platform, the innovation driving our growth, and the confidence the trading community continues to place in VT Markets,” said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead. “We see it as both a celebration and a responsibility — to keep raising the bar in everything we do.”

As VT Markets advances its technological capabilities, infrastructure, and global client engagement, the company looks ahead to breaking new ground, and setting new standards in the world of online trading.

About VT Markets

VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.

For more information, please visit the official VT Markets website or email us at info@vtmarkets.com. Alternatively, follow VT Markets on Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn.

For media enquiries and sponsorship opportunities, please email media@vtmarkets.com, or contact:

Dandelyn Koh 

Global Brand & PR Lead

dandelyn.koh@vtmarkets.com  

Brenda Wong 

Assistant Manager, Global PR & Communications

brenda.wong@vtmarkets.com

U.S. equities may continue their recent strong performance, aided by the easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. According to Deutsche Bank, the S&P 500’s outperformance is expected to persist in the short term, as U.S. companies benefit more from the tariff reductions.

However, Deutsche Bank analysts caution against expecting a long-term rally. Tariffs, although currently reduced, are perceived to still impose a greater burden on U.S. companies compared to European ones. The trend of broader underperformance might continue until there is a substantial reduction in tariffs offering relief to affected companies.

Analyzing Us Stock Performance

This article from Deutsche Bank highlights that U.S. stocks have lately been doing well, partly because trade tensions with China have cooled off. With fewer barriers to selling goods across borders, American firms – especially those listed on the S&P 500 – are likely to see their profit margins improve, at least over the coming weeks. That’s the front-end picture.

But there’s a clear caution here. While trade restrictions have been dialled back, they haven’t disappeared. According to the same team, those remaining duties are still skewed in a way that makes U.S. businesses carry more of the load than their European counterparts. That pressure hasn’t gone away, and for now, it means the outperformance we’ve seen may not last much longer unless there’s a deeper rollback of these tax measures.

So what are we looking at going forward?

If we consider the past few trading cycles, price action has largely followed expectations outlined by the Deutsche team. The short-term advantage they detail – especially for sectors more directly tied to foreign sales – suggests we could see more investors continue rotating into names with heavy global exposure. But there’s a catch. When we factor in the medium-term weight of transactional costs and sourcing issues, it becomes clearer that traders will need to keep a close eye on both macro narratives and how companies are pricing in this relief ahead of actual earnings delivery.

Looking at Kelly’s point from the report, it also seems that a one-sided rally may hit resistance if global manufacturing doesn’t pick up pace. The message is not complicated – temporary conditions can prop up performance, but they’re not the same as structural shifts.

Market Strategy Considerations

We see that risk premiums are compressing too quickly in some sectors – notably consumer tech and industrial automation – which might make positions there more volatile than they appear. Hedging those exposures using short-dated index options or selecting defensive call spreads could still make sense over the next three to four weeks.

Furthermore, the report hints that European equities are faring differently. Though not under the same tariff load, the demand picture in the EU remains somewhat mixed. Muller mentions that unless major fiscal policy steps are announced soon by Brussels, there may not be enough of a catalyst to draw capital back into eurozone assets in the near term.

This wider divergence between American and European companies calls for more selective positioning. For us, that means revisiting how implied volatility skews are developing between exchanges. Spread trades involving regional indices may offer clearer opportunities now, but only where implied vols do not yet reflect upcoming policy deadlines or central bank data drops.

There’s been a temptation among some participants to lean back into risk-on strategies, especially with the S&P’s steady climb. What this research warns us about is that the backdrop hasn’t materially shifted enough to justify stretched multiples. It’s not the sentiment that’s unreliable, but rather the structural mechanics beneath it that have yet to offer firm support.

In short, we expect more directional interest in U.S. index futures, albeit on a more tactical basis. Positions will probably need faster rotation, with expiries kept tight. Given that, we’ll be watching margin ratios quite carefully and considering elevated gamma exposure whenever VIX levels dip below the 13 mark again, as that tends to precede more sudden pullbacks.

As traders, there’s space here to act decisively – not reactively – if the tariff themes resurface via upcoming WTO meetings or trade policy speeches from key White House officials. For now, the tactical tailwind remains in place, but unlike broader shifts in fundamentals, it comes with a fuse.

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On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.1963, slightly higher than the previous day’s fix of 7.1956. China’s central bank is tasked with maintaining price stability, including the exchange rate, and fostering economic growth.

The Chinese monetary authority uses a variety of policy instruments, such as the Reverse Repo Rate, Medium-term Lending Facility, and Reserve Requirement Ratio. Additionally, the Loan Prime Rate is pivotal in influencing Chinese Renminbi exchange rates.

Private Banks And Digital Lenders

China has 19 private banks, including major digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, backed by Tencent and Ant Group. These private banks form a small proportion of the predominantly state-controlled financial sector.

GBP/USD saw a rebound, trading near 1.3280 during the Asian session, supported by a softer US Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained firm around 1.1200 as the market anticipated the Eurozone GDP report.

Gold prices have continued to decline, dropping to a one-month low below $3,150. Shiba Inu ended trading above $0.000015, despite a 4% correction spurred by controversy over a Chinese company’s acquisition of $300 million in a memecoin.

The People’s Bank of China nudged the midpoint fixing of the yuan slightly higher against the dollar on Thursday, setting the central parity rate at 7.1963 compared to Wednesday’s 7.1956. While on the surface this movement may appear negligible, even marginal shifts in the fix often reflect nuanced changes in monetary policy or perceptions of external pressures on trade and capital flows. The central bank’s overarching remit is to balance growth with price control and ensure the yuan remains stable enough to support foreign exchange and trade requirements.

Looking closer, the tools in use—such as the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Medium-term Lending Facility—are geared towards calibrating liquidity in the banking sector. These levers act indirectly on exchange rates through credit supply and bank funding costs. For those of us assessing volatility potential, any shift or rumoured adjustment to these metrics should be flagged pre-emptively.

Attention is turning, understandably, to the performance of private players like WeBank and MYbank. While these digital lenders represent a tiny slice of the larger, state-heavy system, they are often faster in responding to rate changes or consumer lending patterns, which may serve as early signals of underlying shifts in credit appetite. We find it useful to monitor this space not only for domestic indicators but also for the degree of tech-influenced disruption that’s been restrained, or otherwise encouraged, by supervisory updates.

Market Movements And Reactions

Meanwhile, sterling extended its move upward, hovering near 1.3280 in the Asian session. This came as the dollar showed some mild weakness, influenced by market readjustments post-FOMC rhetoric and inflation metrics missing consensus forecasts. There has been no new data from the UK, so the momentum largely reflects counter-dollar positioning and improved risk appetite. We’ve been using options skew and futures volume to track positioning here—to good effect.

In the Eurozone, the euro held tight around 1.1200 as investors awaited fresh GDP figures. We expect the preliminary release to guide short-dated swaps and possibly bring rebalancing in carry trades. Any surprise upwards would likely prompt unwinding of recent bearish euro positions that have built up on the back of German inflation data. This would explain why implied vols have cheapened slightly while spot has remained largely stable—there’s a wait-and-see mood with hedging kept minimal for now.

Turning to commodities, gold has continued to come under pressure, declining to its lowest level in four weeks, just below the $3,150 mark. This drop likely reflects the combined effects of a modestly stronger real yield environment and plummeting demand from institutional ETFs. What’s puzzling is the scale of the movement given that bond volatility hasn’t picked up markedly. We suspect a larger repositioning is underway—possibly tied to end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing.

In digital assets, the meme-coin segment carried on with its erratic behaviour. Shiba Inu closed higher, finishing just above $0.000015 despite a moderate dip earlier in the session spurred by controversial acquisition news out of Asia. While the pullback of four percent was eye-catching, news flow appeared to do more damage in futures funding rates than in spot prices, which suggests a deeper base of speculative demand than expected. We’re watching for follow-through in open interest and any aberrations in cross-exchange basis rates.

For market participants active in diversified product suites—from FX swaps to digital asset options—it makes sense to continue tracking cross-asset volatility correlations. The contrasting trends between traditional havens like gold and risk-on assets such as sterling or select crypto alternatives present occasional mispricings. When pricing divergences emerge and persist beyond their immediate catalysts, there is often an opportunity tied to mean reversion or breakout volatility.

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The US dollar ended mostly higher against major currencies, despite earlier declines. The dollar was lower against the Japanese yen, experiencing a 0.45% drop, but saw gains against the euro and British pound with increases of 0.15% and 0.38% respectively. The Australian dollar rose by 0.63%, and the New Zealand dollar by 0.69%. The USD tried to move lower during the European session but reversed in the US session. In stock markets, tech stocks led gains with AMD up 4.68% since May 6 and NVIDIA up 34% since April 22. Super Micro Computers’ shares rose 15.69% after a new partnership.

Federal Reserve officials commented on the economy and policy. Governor Jefferson signalled current rates are suitable for evolving conditions, yet the future remains uncertain due to potential new tariffs. Fed’s Goolsbee highlighted patience amid volatile short-term inflation trends, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach. The US debt market showed increased yields with the 2-year yield at 4.057%, while gold declined by 2.10% to $3181.30, dropping 7.8% from its recent peak. In equities, Dow fell 89.37 points, S&P rose 6.03 points, and NASDAQ climbed 136.72 points. Crude oil dropped 76 cents, trading at $62.91, while Bitcoin decreased by $646 to $103,494.

Us Dollar’s Selective Weakness And Recovery

What we have observed is a reassertion of the US dollar’s strength, even in the face of initial softness. Its loss against the yen reflects selective weakness, potentially tied to modest shifts in rate expectations or cautious demand for safe-haven currencies. But the recovery versus the euro and sterling tells a different story—one where the dollar remains supported and has not lost hold of broad confidence.

Its mid-session dip in Europe likely came from transient sentiment during policy comments or data releases, but this was swiftly corrected as trading moved to New York. The reversal suggests that few are willing to commit aggressively against the dollar when questions remain about the global inflation path and upcoming supply-side challenges. Overall, the dollar is acting as a stabilising force, particularly in an environment where clarity is patchy.

In the equities space, tech continues to do the heavy lifting. The surge in chip-related shares, especially from Super Micro, indicates continued belief in future revenue growth and strategic alignment with AI and data demand. However, rising share prices have not necessarily translated into broader equity performance. The Dow’s loss versus modest gains in the NASDAQ reinforces the idea that movement is concentrated rather than market-wide.

Federal Reserve Cautious Approach

From the policy side, Jefferson’s remarks showed a leaning towards holding the current rates steady, given unclear future inflation inputs. His use of “conditions” and the reference to potential new tariffs point squarely at risks to pricing, particularly on the supply end. We interpret this as an acknowledgment that while past rate hikes have filtered through, headline inflation might be stirred again if external shocks mount.

Goolsbee was direct in supporting a measured stance. His emphasis on patience amid choppy short-term pricing data suggests officials are alert to avoid being coerced into action before the numbers give repeated confirmation. This measured tone sees reinforcement from the yield curve, especially in shorter maturities. The 2-year yield creeping above 4% shows the market is still building in the possibility of fewer cuts—or even a long pause.

Outside of fixed income, metals took a hit. Gold’s retreat—not just from the day, but from its high—is not just about profit-taking. It aligns with firmer yields and diminished concern about monetary easing. Further downside from elevated levels could be likely if inflation data cools in a sustainable pattern.

Crude oil’s weakness, although mild, suggests that demand expectations are not improving markedly. There’s little evidence of extended positioning on the long side. If anything, storage and production balances may be dictating price, rather than broad macro flows.

Bitcoin’s decline—the largest among the leading assets—is worth watching, not because of any specific headline, but due to what it reflects in sentiment. A fall over $600 in a day, alongside stronger dollar performance, confirms that excessive risk appetite is being pared back.

Underneath this all, we are focused on directional indications in rates and FX, especially on shorter horizons. There is plenty to manage. Market reactions to Fed speakers imply traders are increasingly sensitive to rhetorical shifts—a sign the next large data print or policy comment could spark sharp movement in riskier assets.

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The GBP/USD fell back to a choppy consolidation phase within the 1.3300 range as markets awaited key economic data from the UK and US. The currency pair eased from its weekly high of 1.3359 to 1.3293 amid a lack of strong market catalysts.

Sterling had advanced near 1.3350 against the US Dollar, helped by the cooling US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market’s response saw a continuation of the recovery move noted earlier in the week as the US Dollar weakened.

australian dollar stability

The Australian Dollar held steady near 0.6450 following strong employment data showing a stable unemployment rate at 4.1% in April. The increase in employment change to 89K provided support, alongside optimism in US-China trade discussions.

The USD/JPY pair showed weakness near 146.00 due to renewed Dollar selling amidst mixed economic signals. Meanwhile, gold remained vulnerable below $3,200, with attention turning towards upcoming US economic indicators and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Markets responded positively as the US and China paused their trade conflicts, fostering renewed interest in risk assets. This shift improved market sentiment, suggesting the potential for easing tensions.

At present, there’s a sense that the pound is searching for direction as it drifts within the 1.3300 band. Following a fleeting attempt to press towards last week’s highs of 1.3359, the pair found little follow-through and slipped near 1.3290. The move seems more rooted in inertia than intentional retreat. Without any firm push from macroeconomic drivers, price action has reverted to range-bound behaviour. This type of sideways movement, after a brief upside run, often reflects a market in wait-and-see mode. Traders, in this context, would be measuring exposure, rather than chasing momentum.

emerging trends in currency and commodities

The earlier rise in sterling was largely underpinned by softer inflation prints from the US, which weighed on the greenback. With core CPI edging lower, it reopened discussion around the Federal Reserve’s forward path. A weaker dollar environment has historically benefitted cable, and this week was no exception. But absent any domestic UK catalyst, sterling’s buyers lacked incentive to defend higher levels.

In contrast, the employment report from Australia injected more solidity into the Aussie’s footing. An 89K job gain, while partly seasonal, exceeded most expectations and helped anchor AUD/USD near 0.6450. There was also some indirect benefit from an improved tone in US-China trade dialogue. Notably, stronger labour figures often point to sustained domestic demand, which can temper expectations for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. As a result, we’ve seen some interest in downside protection being reduced, particularly in the short-dated space.

Turning to Dollar-Yen, the Japanese yen has been retracing modestly, taking the USD/JPY pair closer to 146.00. Renewed pressure on the US dollar came as mixed US economic signals muddled market expectations. This move has gained attention from those positioned on carry trades. Yen strength, even if minor, suggests a shifting sentiment layer underneath. From a derivatives perspective, implied volatilities are not elevated, but skew in options pricing hints at downside hedges being slightly favoured.

And then there’s gold. Price remains heavy under $3,200, with little appetite to test higher levels just yet. A number of traders have trimmed exposure ahead of Powell’s upcoming speech, weighing concerns over whether the Fed Chair will adopt a firmer tone in light of recent inflation softening. With traders moving risk exposure around upcoming US data, metals might continue operating as a barometer for broader inflation outlook and real yield expectations.

The temporary easing between Washington and Beijing has added some buoyancy to broader risk sentiment. We’ve already seen that reflected in renewed appetite in equity-linked assets and carry trades. That improvement has drifted through FX markets, creating subtle ripple effects. It’s not a full risk-on breakout—yet it has softened the bid under haven assets like the dollar and yen.

With several US indicators and central bank remarks around the corner, we find ourselves in a phase where volatility could pick up rather quickly. Those in positioning mode may want to consider how spot levels correlate with upcoming macro scheduling. Risk management strategies ought to take into account that current market calm may be more tactical than structural. The week’s initial trades suggest patience, but the potential for quick pivots remains.

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China is implementing tighter export controls on strategic minerals to enhance national security through comprehensive supply chain management. The Ministry of Commerce stated the control measures will cover every supply chain stage, including mining, smelting, processing, and export, to prevent illegal exports.

This decision comes after a national meeting in Changsha, involving senior officials from central government agencies and representatives from mineral-rich provinces like Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi. The government emphasised integrated supervision of the supply chain and the establishment of traceability systems, improved customs inspections, and management to identify and mitigate risks early.

Enforcing Strict Regulations

Authorities are committed to strict enforcement, with central and local governments increasing oversight efforts. Local areas will swiftly register and monitor businesses dealing with strategic minerals, and companies are encouraged to heighten compliance. Those violating new regulations will face severe penalties, according to the Ministry.

Strategic minerals such as rare earths, lithium, graphite, and tungsten are essential for making semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, military equipment, and clean energy technologies. Tighter Chinese controls may strain global supply chains, raise manufacturing costs, and increase competition among countries seeking stable, non-Chinese sources of these critical materials.

The article makes clear that Chinese regulators are intensifying their grip on the production and export of materials key to advanced technologies. By extending control to every part of the supply chain—right from the raw extraction phase through to final export—Beijing is aiming to enforce compliance with stricter standards and cut down on untracked, possibly illegal, shipments. The Changsha meeting, which included both bureaucrats from Beijing and local officials from resource-heavy provinces, underlines just how coordinated this approach is, and how seriously it is being taken at every level of government.

This isn’t merely regulation for the sake of process. Rather, the tighter system is built to ensure full traceability, from mine to border. With new procedures in place at customs, and heightened checks around logistics channels, the authorities are sending a message that the period of informal arrangements and loophole exploitation is fast coming to an end. Based on what has been communicated officially, if businesses in affected areas miss registration deadlines—or fail to clean up their reporting—consequences will be swift and substantial.

Global Supply Chain Impact

For us, one clear inference stands out: the short-term unpredictability in material availability will increase. With more scrutiny at every stage, any slight discrepancy in paperwork, licensing, or operational scope could lead to hold-ups in delivery timelines, even for firms operating in line with regulations. Over-compliance, if anything, becomes the lower-risk route.

The scope of the strategy reaches beyond domestic matters. Exporters reliant on Chinese output, either upstream or further along in derivatives markets, could see squeezes in expected supply. That alone may drive spot prices for some materials higher. We’re specifically wary of unhedged positions in contracts linked to these minerals, as surprises remain likely over the next set of policy reviews or customs rulings. Hence, hedging calendars may need to shift forward.

Further, oversights that used to be priced in lightly—such as assumptions around re-export rights in bonded zones or existing long-term licenses carrying over smoothly—now require a more forensic check. We would not treat standing contracts as immune simply because they pre-date this new round of measures. The emphasis on historical tracking means prior activity may also come under scrutiny, unintentionally catching some traders off-guard.

In the meantime, the competitive pressure among countries scrambling for alternative sources continues to mount. This encourages upstream producers outside China to assert control over pricing and delivery terms, knowing full well that demand has fewer choices now. As such, strategies focused purely on speed or volume—without geographic diversification—will suffer reduced resilience in the near term.

What we’re watching closely is how regional processors react to shifts in midstream availability, especially in jurisdictions that offer tax incentives or lighter licensing requirements. Those facilities may attract an influx of demand as firms try to reroute or restructure their procurement chains quickly. If so, cleared volumes through these zones could become temporary price indicators, diverging from futures benchmarks. There’s an opening there, but it carries execution risk.

For those of us engaged in trading linked instruments, mapping policy cycles into volatility curves remains useful. Key dates—such as government re-registration deadlines or customs enforcement reviews—could trigger repeated squeezes and trend reversals. Passive positioning will invite exposure to abrupt moves.

Measurable compliance, above public perception, is what this policy round seems to reward. And for markets, that implies less room for speculative optimism, and more reliance on documentation, inspection clarity, and counterparty validity.

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Mary Daly of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco noted the robust US economy allows for a patient approach in observing the impacts of President Trump’s policies. She mentioned that monetary policy is moderately restrictive and businesses, despite uncertainty, continue to move forward.

Economic indicators such as growth, the labour market, and declining inflation are aligning with desired outcomes. Daly emphasised that Fed policies are flexible in responding to economic changes, with patience being a central theme.

Current Loan Demands

Current loan demands are stable with good credit status; however, guidance on policy remains speculative due to uncertainties. The US Dollar Index is slightly lower, at 100.99.

The Federal Reserve shapes US monetary policy, aiming for price stability and full employment by adjusting interest rates. Interest rate hikes strengthen the US Dollar, while cuts can weaken it.

Fed policy meetings occur eight times yearly to assess economic conditions. Quantitative Easing (QE) is used during crises, typically weakening the US Dollar, while Quantitative Tightening (QT) tends to have the opposite effect.

Future Policy Decisions

Daly’s commentary reflects an outlook where the Federal Reserve is under limited pressure to react hastily. The key point, really, is that policymakers have a bit of breathing room. The combined effect of slowing inflation, low unemployment, and steady growth reduces the risk associated with pausing or extending a policy stance a little longer. In plain terms, current conditions don’t demand an immediate change. Daly’s use of “patience” signals a wait-and-see approach—a stance we’ve come to recognise when incoming data gives no definitive push in one direction or another.

Her observation about monetary policy being “moderately restrictive” is worth noting. That tells us the Fed sees the current rate level as doing some work already—tight enough to curb excess demand but not so high as to choke off investment or spending entirely. The phrase carries weight; it suggests we’re somewhere already beyond neutral, meaning the Fed isn’t eager to raise rates much further unless something unexpected happens.

What does that say about future decisions? It implies that unless data considerably diverge—if inflation stalls or surprises to the upside, or the job market suddenly weakens—the base case is steady policy. That’s particularly relevant when you see comments about ongoing progress despite “uncertainty”—a word which often hints at geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, or things further afield.

Now, the stable demand for credit underscores that households and firms are not pulling back sharply. People are still borrowing and spending; businesses are not shelving plans. There may be some hesitancy, but no significant deterioration. This means rate cuts—often prompted when lenders struggle or markets fear defaults—are not on the agenda in the immediate weeks.

In markets, that steady loan appetite can translate into reduced volatility in near-term rate bets. We should expect traders to focus more heavily on incoming inflation prints than on employment reports, since the latter have become relatively stable. If inflation continues to ease, the pressure to maintain tight policy also eases, and any glide toward cuts could start to crystallise beyond mid-year.

The move in the Dollar Index, albeit small, continues to reflect this stance. A lower dollar is typically associated with either reduced rate expectations or improving risk sentiment in broader markets. Since the Fed isn’t loosening just yet, we can attribute this to market perception that we’re nearing the peak of hiking.

From past cycles, we know that central bank meetings are not venues for drama when the economy is aligned with policy targets. Therefore, unless inflation makes a sharp reappearance, we can expect upcoming FOMC decisions to be framed by recent data and to stick fairly close to the current path.

Finally, the role of QE and QT still matters to directional trading, but think of them now more as background tools. Active implementation of either is not visible in the short run, but knowing their potential impact helps position around macro events. With patience as a guiding idea, and consistent data reinforcement of that approach, we treat rate paths and dollar movement with a lighter touch while watching for any deviation that might eventually shift the direction of travel.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President, Mary Daly, will participate in a fireside chat at 2140 GMT during the California Bankers Association’s annual event. This appearance is set to take place before the American audience at 1740 US Eastern Time.

Australia’s employment report for April is scheduled, despite it being early in the month for such data. Expectations suggest moderate job growth, with the unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged.

No major impact on the Australian dollar is predicted, unless unexpected results arise. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia plans a 25bp cash rate cut in their upcoming meeting on May 19-20.

Asian Economic Calendar for May 15 2025

The Asian economic calendar for 15 May 2025 lists events in GMT, alongside previous results and consensus median expectations, where available.

The upcoming remarks from Daly are drawing close attention due to their placement within a broader, more cautious backdrop the U.S. central bank has maintained. Her perspectives, as shared in these forums, tend to offer nuanced insight on both employment dynamics and current monetary pressures, often giving voice to internal debates that might otherwise remain less visible. The timing of the discussion, close to market close in the United States, typically stirs short-term rate expectations and contributes to evening readjustments in futures pricing. We expect a particularly careful tone given the Fed’s consistent framing around inflation risks and the resilience of consumer demand. Any deviation towards a more accommodative outlook, however minor, would almost certainly alter our rate path forecasts.

The Australian labour report, coming earlier than typical, suggests some shift either in methodology or urgency of data release. Either way, expectations are leaning towards a steady continuation of modest job growth, with the unemployment rate set to hold. We have seen prior cases where consensus predictions understate volatility in underlying participation or hours worked, leading to mild surprises. If this month’s data reflect tighter conditions, or if a sharp decline surfaces in full-time roles, repricing could occur more quickly than markets seem prepared for. Given that the Reserve Bank is projecting a rate reduction in just over a week, incoming figures now carry heavier weight than usual. The gap between announcement and that May decision window is now narrow enough that most major institutions will have locked in forecasts shortly after release.

Positioning with a Higher Sensitivity Bias

For Japan and other Asian economies listed on the 15 May calendar, there remain few anticipated shock outcomes, though we know that fixed income desks consider off-consensus results from China’s industrial production among the more sensitive triggers for asset rotation. Price figures from Korea may also see attention, depending on regional risk appetite that day. However, barring any material divergence, the broader macro outlook still leans towards stabilisation rather than reacceleration.

We are positioning with a higher sensitivity bias to intraday data over the next fortnight, especially where bond pricing remains misaligned with forward guidance. The concrete timestamps offered here—especially Daly’s remarks and the Australian employment statement—should not be viewed as isolated signals, but rather in context with scheduled central bank agenda items and prolonged rate volatility. We’d suggest that these sessions, rather than just being perfunctory updates, will likely form the basis of short-dated risk re-evaluations. Timing, as we’ve seen, matters just as much as content.

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The AUD/NZD pair trades near 1.0900, showing steady movement and a bullish tone as it approaches the Asian session. Buyers maintain control despite mixed signals from momentum indicators and short-term moving averages favour an upward direction, with longer-term resistance still present.

Technically, the pair exhibits a cautious bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index remains neutral in the 60s, and a buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence supports the uptrend. However, the Williams Percent Range and Stochastic RSI Fast indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback.

Short Term Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, support the bullish sentiment around current price levels. The 20-day Simple Moving Average further strengthens this positive tone, while the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages above the price suggest broader resistance.

Key support levels are identified at 1.0870, 1.0870, and 1.0860, with resistance at 1.0910, 1.0920, and 1.0950. Breaking above resistance could suggest a breakout, while falling below support might trigger a correction toward the recent range’s lower end.

The AUD/NZD pair is holding close to the 1.0900 level, showing a stable yet directional push higher as we transition through the quieter Asian session. What we’re seeing, in plain terms, is a market that continues to lean toward the upside, but not without a few warning signs. Price action is orderly—buoyed by short-dated indicators—but not euphoric.

Momentum tools are starting to diverge. The RSI, while comfortably neutral in the mid-60s, suggests buying hasn’t overheated completely, giving some confidence that the move higher still has room. The MACD continues to offer a confirmed buy signal, further reinforcing the view that recent gains are underpinned by momentum. That said, both the Williams Percent Range and Stochastic RSI Fast flashing overbought readings tell us speculative interest may be ahead of itself. This doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal is imminent, but it often precedes intervals of sideways drift or shallow retreat while the market consolidates.

The shorter-term moving averages—10-day exponential and simple—are sloping upwards, coiling just beneath the current price. They act as a springboard for any further upside and tend to attract dip buyers when touched. Slightly longer-term, the 20-day simple is also aligned bullishly, providing further stability to the immediate trend. However, stepping back further, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are still overhead, suggesting that long-position holders haven’t cleared the more entrenched resistance levels yet. We’re not out of the woods from a longer-horizon perspective.

Support zones are well-defined. The range between 1.0870 to 1.0860 has caught earlier dips, and price has rebounded strongly after interactions with those levels. If price retraces in the coming sessions, that’s where we’d expect participation to return. Below that, however, you’re entering territory that could invite more aggressive profit-taking or even short entries if confirmed by broader risk sentiment.

Resistance Levels and False Breaks

Likewise, to the upside, there’s a layer of resistance that the market hasn’t quite overcome yet. The area between 1.0910 to 1.0950 holds rising importance. A break and close above this range, with sustained volume and no immediate rejection, may lead to a stronger directional move. Often when this type of zone gives way, intraday traders need to adapt quickly, either by allowing trades more space or by adjusting risk profiles according to new volatility levels.

As we move through the week, the interplay between technical overextensions and supportive trend structures continues to matter. Day-to-day, any sharp shifts in regional economic updates or shifts in interest rate expectations may catch traders offside. If price remains capped under those medium-term averages and oscillators roll over, the immediate bullish tone could shift into a range-bound correction. At that point, attention would shift toward trade management rather than directional conviction.

We should be mindful of false breaks in this environment—where the pair peeks above resistance or dips below support just briefly, only to revert within the established range. Patience, in this context, becomes more valuable than trying to pre-empt reversals. Wait for triggers that align across more than one timeframe, and let the confirmation lead, rather than assumptions tied to earlier moves.

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The Mexican Peso reached a seven-month high against the US Dollar, trading at 19.39 with a decrease of 0.98%. This shift followed the US-China trade agreement and mixed US equity markets. While Mexico had no recent economic events, the Bank of Mexico is anticipated to announce a 50-basis-point rate cut. This trend represents the seventh consecutive reduction in the reference rate. The economic prediction by Goldman Sachs suggests a 0% growth for Mexico in 2025, a revised outlook from a 0.5% contraction.

Us Data And Market Sentiment

In the US, forthcoming data include inflation figures, Retail Sales, and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market sentiment suggests that the Federal Reserve might implement two rate cuts this year instead of three. Should Mexico’s central bank further reduce rates, it might put pressure on the USD/MXN exchange rate. The Peso’s value is influenced by the country’s economy, central bank’s policy, and oil prices. Macroeconomic data and broader risk sentiment also affect its valuation. Times of economic uncertainty often see the Peso weaken, as it is considered an emerging-market currency. The importance of thorough research before making financial decisions is emphasised.

We’ve seen the Mexican Peso climb to levels not reached since October, driven less by local factors and more by external momentum. It firmed against the US Dollar, touching 19.39 after shaving off nearly 1% in a single session. Interestingly, this upswing happened despite silence on Mexico’s domestic economic front, suggesting it’s more about the shifting tides abroad than anything at home.

What anchored this move was the recent easing in tensions between the world’s two largest economies, with a trade understanding between Washington and Beijing stabilising risk appetite globally. Simultaneously, US equity markets gave mixed signals, pointing to a fragile but functioning investor mood. Combine those cues with a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, and the direction becomes clearer.

In the background, Mexico’s central bank continues pushing borrowing costs lower. Another 50-basis-point rate cut is on the cards, a continuation of a trend that’s been maintained across seven straight meetings. Rates are being drawn down steadily, signalling concerns about stagnant growth and an effort to stimulate demand. One major institution has even walked away from its earlier forecast of a shallow recession for 2025, now expecting flat growth instead—more stabilisation than a real recovery.

The Impact Of Oil Prices And Currency Dynamics

On US shores, we’re keenly eyeing key data this week—retail sales, inflation numbers, and comments from Powell will all offer guidance. There’s growing talk that only two rate cuts may come from the Fed this year, rather than the three initially priced in. This revision matters more than it may seem at first glance. Policy spread between the US and Mexico will be closely watched. A narrowing gap, should both continue cutting, could throttle USD/MXN volatility in spurts. Dollar softness or strength continues to be a lever for the cross.

For now, oil remains a meaningful driver in the Peso’s direction. Not mechanically, but it still matters. With Mexico’s budget leaning on crude exports, shifts in commodity prices have a knock-on effect on the currency. When prices drop, budget pressure increases. When they rise, there’s breathing room.

This pairing remains one to keep a close eye on in the weeks ahead. These movements aren’t occurring in isolation. They reflect a web of influences: relative interest rates, investor sentiment, and headline-driven risk fluctuations. During calmer stretches, the Peso often strengthens due to carry attractiveness, but in stress, it loses that glow quickly. We watch closely for moments where the path ahead isn’t just determined by numbers, but by how markets *feel* about those numbers.

Looking forward, attention will need to stay sharply focused on both central banks—closely watching whether future cuts are backed by dovish commentary or framed as data-contingent. What Carstens’ former shop chooses to telegraph following the next rate move may matter as much as the cut itself. Whispers of a pause, or a misstep in guidance, and we could see the tide reverse just as quickly. Poised but cautious—that remains the correct angle for now.

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