Oil prices remain pulled between shifting OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risks, and uneven demand growth. With politics and policy now weighing as heavily as fundamentals, traders face a market shaped by uncertainty and rapid shifts.
OPEC+ output cutback fuels price gains
Oil markets edged higher on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing to $62.58 and Brent crude reaching $66.37.
The gains followed a smaller-than-anticipated supply increase from OPEC+, which announced an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for October, down from 555,000 bpd in September.
OPEC+ countries announced plans at the weekend to further increase their oil production, even though the market already looks oversupplied. Find out what's moving the markets — and why — with Market Talk, Reuters' daily chat with an investor, economist or market analyst pic.twitter.com/NZCwJVZ6Sw
The measured adjustment suggests the alliance is taking a more conservative stance amid ongoing uncertainty in supply and demand balances.
Market watchers had anticipated a larger output rise, but the restrained approach highlights weaker demand growth, oversupply concerns, and the need to safeguard price stability.
Russia sanctions back in spotlight
The supply picture was further tightened after Russia launched its most extensive air assault on Ukraine in months, reviving the possibility of tougher Western sanctions.
Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, the Ukrainian air force said, firing over 800 drones and 13 missiles across the country. Authorities said it killed at least four and set fire to the seat of government https://t.co/exu05Y20zrpic.twitter.com/MBGctb7aLK
US President Donald Trump indicated his willingness to intensify restrictions, while European Union officials met American counterparts to discuss coordinated energy measures. Any such move could restrict global oil flows and add upside pressure to crude prices.
Technical analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) is currently trading at $62.64, up 0.34%, yet technical indicators continue to point to weakness.
After peaking around $77.90 in July, prices have steadily drifted lower, with the $62–63 band now serving as key support.
Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned bearishly, with prices struggling to break and hold above them.
Picture: WTI crude oil consolidating near $62-63 support, with bearish moving averages and weak MACD momentum signalling downside risk as seen on the VT Markets app.
The MACD indicator is flat but still below zero, signalling negative momentum. Recovery attempts have repeatedly failed under $67, underscoring sustained selling pressure.
If WTI fails to defend the $62 threshold, a decline towards $60–59–levels last seen in early Q2–remains possible.
Conversely, reclaiming $67 would be needed to revive short-term bullish momentum.
Fundamental factors, including OPEC+ supply discipline and shifts in US inventory data, will remain central to price direction.
Cautious forecast
The oil market remains highly sensitive to both supply disruptions and monetary policy shifts. A confirmed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week could lift demand expectations, while tougher sanctions on Russia would further squeeze global supply.
That said, demand growth is still trailing earlier forecasts, and oversupply concerns persist, keeping rallies under pressure.
Traders should also monitor China’s economic recovery pace, as weaker industrial demand could weigh on prices despite geopolitical risks.
In addition, seasonal refinery maintenance in the US and Europe could temper near-term crude demand, offsetting potential supply tightness.
Overall, without a decisive catalyst–such as sharper production cuts, stronger-than-expected consumption, or major geopolitical escalations–any rebound in oil prices is likely to be limited and vulnerable to swift corrections.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
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Written on September 9, 2025 at 7:45 am, by anakin
Global markets face renewed uncertainty as weak US non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment stoke recession fears, prompting calls for Fed rate cuts while Trump finalises candidates for Fed Chair. Trade tensions intensified with new Russia sanctions, tariff exemptions on metals, and stricter terms for Japan, while OPEC+ raised output.
KEY INDICATORS
US labour market
August non-farm payrolls grew far below expectations, while June data was revised into negative territory for the first time since 2020.
The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high.
White House adviser Hassett predicted upward revisions but questioned the reliability of the current data.
Senate leader Schumer cited weak jobs data to push for overturning Trump’s tariffs.
Trump, Labour Secretary Dremer, and Treasury Secretary Bessent all criticised the Fed for delaying rate cuts.
Bessent warned that revised 2024 employment figures may reduce jobs by 800,000.
Commodities and dollar
Dollar Index fell 0.54% to 97.74, erasing most of last week’s gains.
US Treasury yields declined: 10-year at 4.08%, 2-year at 3.52%.
Spot gold closed at $3,586/oz, up 1.12% for a third week; silver rose 0.82% to $40.97/oz.
Crude prices dropped, with WTI down 2.61% to $61.69/barrel and Brent down 1.81% to $65.66/barrel.
Senate Republicans are planning rule changes to fast-track Fed governor confirmations.
US trade & sanctions – tariff adjustments and Russia measures
Trump prepared a second wave of sanctions against Russia.
The US exempted gold, tungsten, and uranium from global tariffs, effective Monday.
Trump signed an executive order to adjust tariffs under future trade agreements, including potential zero duties on scarce goods, agricultural products, aircraft parts, and pharmaceutical inputs.
Financial markets move in cycles, alternating between periods of growth and decline. For traders and investors, recognising whether the market is bullish or bearish is crucial. This guide explains what bull and bear markets are, compares their key differences, explores historical examples, and offers practical strategies you can apply in both conditions. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, this breakdown will help you navigate cycles more effectively.
What Is a Bear Market?
A bear market is defined as a period where asset prices fall 20 percent or more from recent highs. These downturns are often triggered by economic slowdowns, rising interest rates, or unexpected global events. Bear markets can affect entire stock indices, individual sectors, or even commodities, currencies, and other securities.
Key characteristics include:
Declining prices across major assets.
Investor pessimism, leading to panic selling.
Reduced corporate earnings and rising unemployment.
Higher demand for safe-haven assets like gold, government bonds, or fixed income securities.
Example: During the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 57 percent from its peak, wiping out trillions in market value. Unemployment in the United States reached 10 percent, while Europe and Asia also suffered deep recessions.
What Is a Bull Market?
A bull market is characterised by sustained rising prices, strong investor confidence, and positive economic indicators. Traders often look for growth opportunities, with optimism pushing valuations higher and a strong economy supporting continued gains.
Key characteristics include:
Prices rising steadily across stocks, indices, or other assets.
Strong investor confidence, supported by economic growth.
Expanding corporate profits and higher valuations.
Greater participation in the markets as retail and institutional investors enter.
Example: From March 2009 to February 2020, the S&P 500 surged over 400 percent in what became the longest bull run in history, fuelled by low interest rates and steady corporate earnings.
Bear Market vs Bull Market: Key Differences
When comparing a bear market vs bull market, the differences are clear:
Factor
Bull Market
Bear Market
Price Trend
Rising steadily
Falling sharply
Investor Sentiment
Optimistic, risk-taking
Pessimistic, risk-averse
Economic Conditions
GDP growth, low unemployment
Recession, rising unemployment
Trading Volume
Often increases with optimism
May decline as investors exit
Opportunities
Growth investing, momentum trading
Short selling, hedging strategies
Duration
Often long-lasting (years)
Usually shorter, but steeper losses
1. Price Trends
In a bull market, prices tend to rise gradually but consistently, supported by steady demand and growing corporate profits. In bear markets, declines are sharper and faster, often triggered by sudden shocks such as a financial crisis or geopolitical event. For example, the bull market from 2010 to 2019 saw the S&P 500 rise nearly 13 percent annually, whereas the 2008 crash wiped out over half the index’s value in just 18 months.
2. Investor Sentiment
Bulls are driven by optimism. Investors are confident, willing to take on risk, and often push valuations higher. In a bear market, fear dominates. Traders withdraw capital, leading to self-reinforcing declines as panic selling spreads.
3. Economic Conditions
Bull markets usually coincide with expanding GDP, healthy job markets, and rising consumer spending. Conversely, bear markets often emerge alongside recessions, falling corporate earnings, and higher unemployment. For instance, during the 2020 COVID crash, unemployment in the US spiked to nearly 15 percent — its highest level since the Great Depression.
4. Trading Volume
In bull markets, volume tends to climb as more participants enter. New investors are drawn by the potential for gains. During bear markets, however, volume can shrink as traders retreat to cash or safe-haven assets, though periods of panic selling can produce temporary spikes.
5. Opportunities
Bull markets reward long-term investing and momentum trading, as rising tides lift most assets. Bear markets demand more defensive or contrarian strategies — short selling, buying inverse ETFs, or rotating into gold and bonds. For example, gold prices jumped 25 percent in 2020 while equities fell sharply.
6. Duration
Bull markets often last longer, sometimes for a decade or more. Bear markets, while usually shorter, can be more severe. A 12-month bear market can erase gains accumulated over several years of bullish conditions.
From a trader’s perspective, bull vs bear conditions are not just opposites; they require entirely different approaches to risk and strategy.
How to Trade in a Bear Market and a Bull Market
The steps below outline how traders can navigate both bull markets and bear markets with clarity and discipline.
Step 1: Identify Market Conditions
Traders should evaluate the direction of the market by analyzing economic indicators like GDP, unemployment, and interest rates, as well as technical signals such as moving averages and market sentiment, to determine whether the market is bullish or bearish.
Step 2: Define Your Trading Goals
In bull markets the focus is often on long-term growth and capital appreciation, with future performance as a key consideration, while in bear markets the priority shifts to capital preservation, risk control, and setting objectives such as achieving a gain.
Step 3: Select Suitable Assets
Bull markets favour growth stocks, emerging market ETFs, and cyclical sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, while bear markets are better suited to defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities or safe-haven assets like gold.
Step 4: Choose Your Strategy
Traders often rely on buy-and-hold investing, momentum trading, and sector rotation during bull markets, while short selling, hedging with options, and inverse ETFs are more effective in bear markets.
Step 5: Apply Risk Management
Setting stop-loss orders, managing position sizes, and using leverage carefully are essential in both phases, but diversification becomes even more important when volatility increases in bear markets.
Step 6: Monitor and Adjust
Market conditions can shift quickly, so traders should track economic releases, central bank policy, and geopolitical events, remembering that strategies successful in a bull market may become risky in a bear market.
Popular Trading Strategies for Bull vs Bear Markets
Traders often rely on tailored strategies to suit each market cycle, focusing on how these trading strategies impact their investments. Before choosing a strategy, conducting thorough research is essential to ensure it aligns with your portfolio management goals.
Bull market strategies
1. Buy and hold investing
In a bull market, traders can buy quality assets and hold them for the long term, allowing rising prices to build capital steadily. The key is to focus on strong companies with solid earnings and growth potential rather than speculative picks.
Example: An investor who bought an S&P 500 index fund in 2010 and held it until the 2020 peak would have more than tripled their investment, showing the power of patience and staying invested in an extended bull run.
2. Momentum trading
Momentum trading involves entering positions when assets show strong upward momentum, confirmed by technical indicators such as moving averages or trading volume. Traders ride the trend until signs of reversal appear, making this strategy highly responsive to market shifts.
Example: During the 2020 rally, technology stocks like Apple and Amazon surged as demand for digital services soared. Momentum traders who entered during these breakouts captured substantial gains before the trend slowed.
3. Sector rotation
Sector rotation means moving capital into industries that typically outperform during bullish conditions. Traders track economic data to identify which sectors are poised for growth and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
Example: After the 2009 financial crisis, sectors like technology, consumer discretionary, and financials outperformed defensive industries. Traders who rotated into these areas benefited from higher-than-average returns during the recovery.
Bear market strategies
1. Short selling and inverse ETFs
In bear markets, traders can profit from falling prices by short selling (borrowing shares to sell at current prices and buying them back later at lower prices) or by using inverse ETFs that rise as markets decline.
Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, short sellers targeting financial institutions like Lehman Brothers earned significant profits, while inverse ETFs tracking bank stocks gained as the sector collapsed.
2. Safe-haven hedging
Safe-haven hedging involves shifting capital into assets that retain or increase value during a market downturn, such as gold, government bonds, or the US dollar. Fixed income securities are also commonly used as defensive assets, providing stability and reducing risk during downturns. This approach not only protects portfolios but can also generate gains.
Example: In early 2020, gold prices rose by more than 25 percent as investors sought safety, helping traders offset losses from plunging stock markets.
3. Options strategies
Options give traders flexibility to manage downside risk in volatile markets. Buying protective puts allows them to lock in a selling price for stocks, while covered calls generate income on assets that are held.
Example: In 2022, when interest rate hikes triggered sharp equity declines, traders who bought protective puts on indices like the S&P 500 limited their losses while remaining positioned for the eventual rebound.
In Summary
A bull market is marked by rising prices, optimism, and economic growth, while a bear market is defined by falling prices, fear, and downturns. Bullish phases tend to reward strategies like buy-and-hold and momentum trading, whereas bearish phases call for short selling, hedging, and defensive positioning. Growth sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary often lead during bull markets, while defensive areas like healthcare, utilities, and safe-haven assets perform better in bear markets. Ultimately, success in either cycle comes down to adapting strategies, managing risk effectively, and staying flexible as conditions evolve.
Start Trading Bull and Bear Markets with VT Markets
If you are new to trading, the VT Markets Help Centre provides guides and resources to support your journey. With a VT Markets demo account, you can practise trading bull and bear markets in a risk-free environment.
Create a live account with VT Markets today to access global markets and take advantage of opportunities in any market condition.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What causes a bull market or a bear market?
Bull markets are typically caused by strong economic growth, low interest rates, and rising corporate earnings, while bear markets often follow recessions, geopolitical shocks, or tightening monetary policy.
2. How long do bull and bear markets last?
Bull markets can last for several years. The 2009–2020 rally in the US lasted over a decade. Bear markets are typically shorter, often lasting several months to two years, though they can be sharp and painful.
3. Can traders make money in a bear market?
Yes. Traders can profit by short selling, buying inverse ETFs, or using options. Defensive strategies such as rotating into stable sectors can also reduce losses.
4. What signals indicate a bull market is starting?
Rising GDP, improving corporate earnings, lower unemployment, and stock indices crossing above long-term moving averages are strong indicators.
5. What should beginners do in a bear market?
Beginners should avoid panic selling. Instead, they can focus on risk management, diversify into safer assets, and use demo accounts to practise strategies before risking real capital.
Written on September 8, 2025 at 10:05 am, by jason
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Written on September 8, 2025 at 8:35 am, by anakin
Markets diverge: weak US labour data lifts rate cut bets, a probe into Fed Governor Cook adds uncertainty, and Trump hits Japan with new tariffs. The UK and Europe track political risks as Russia eyes a fuel export ban. Gold demand climbs, Nasdaq tightens crypto rules, and tech focus falls on Nvidia’s China chips and DeepSeek’s year-end launch.
KEY INDICATORS
Markets and commodities
Dollar Index rebounds, up 0.15% to 98.29.
US Treasury yields decline across the curve; 10-year at 4.162%, 2-year at 3.598%.
Gold ends seven-day rally, down 0.38% to $3,545.78/oz.
Silver slips below $41, down 1.32% to $40.67/oz.
WTI down 0.76% to $63.07; Brent down 0.88% to $66.69.
Global equities
US stocks rally; Dow +0.77%, S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq +0.98%.
Tesla +1%, Intel +2%, while C3.ai falls over 7%.
Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.1%; Alibaba -4%, NIO -3%.
European stocks mostly higher; DAX +0.74%, FTSE 100 +0.42%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.41%.
Central banks and data
The Bank of Japan will hold a market operations meeting on 16 October.
The Bank of England seeks feedback on plans to strengthen gilt repo market resilience.
The European Central Bank will decide on interest rates on 11 September, with inflation and growth in focus.
Federal Reserve officials’ commentary ahead of the next FOMC meeting remains crucial.
US CPI on 11 September is the main inflation gauge for Fed expectations.
US PPI on 10 September offers an early signal of producer inflation.
US jobless claims remain a key labour market stress indicator.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment on 12 September is a key gauge of confidence.
Europe and the UK face ongoing debates on fiscal risks and bond yields.
MARKET MOVERS
EUR/USD
Primary trend: Bullish, with pullbacks likely to find support before buyers return.
Support level: 1.1645 (secondary: 1.1660)
Resistance zone: 1.1725 (secondary: 1.1740)
Long strategy: Enter longs near 1.1645 support, target 1.1725 initially, extend towards 1.1740, stop-loss below 1.1645.
Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 1.1725–1.1740 resistance, target 1.1660 initially, extend back to 1.1645 if momentum stalls.
Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 1.1645–1.1740.
Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish bias.
GBP/JPY
Primary trend: Broadly bullish, but weakening momentum signals risk of near-term reversal.
Support level: 198.8 (secondary: 198.5)
Resistance zone: 200.0 (secondary: 201.0)
Long strategy: Enter longs only if price holds above 198.8 support, target 200.5 initially, extend towards 201.0, stop-loss below 198.8.
Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 200.0 resistance, target 198.8 initially, extend back to 198.5 if momentum stalls, stop-loss above 200.0.
Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 198.5–200.0.
Risk management: Keep stops tight given the potential for a breakout.
DAX 40
Primary trend: Bullish, but current levels limit the risk/reward profile.
Support level: 23,640 (secondary: 23,800)
Resistance zone: 24,080 (secondary: 24,150)
Long strategy: Enter longs on dips near 23,640 support, target 24,080 initially, extend towards 24,150, stop-loss below 23,640.
Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts if rallies stall near 24,080–24,150 resistance, target 23,800 initially, extend back to 23,640 if momentum stalls, stop-loss above 24,150.
Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 23,640–24,150.
Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish bias.
NEWS HEADLINES
US developments
ADP jobs report shows 54k in August, below the 65k expected, while jobless claims rise to 237k, the highest since June.
The Justice Department launches a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Governor Cook over a mortgage case.
Fed nominee Milan says the central bank should not be under presidential control.
Fed’s Williams warns of rising labour market risks and supports gradual rate cuts.
Nasdaq will tighten scrutiny of listed firms’ cryptocurrency investments.
Elon Musk will skip Trump’s White House tech CEO dinner.
Global trade and politics
Trump signs an order imposing 15% tariffs on nearly all Japanese goods under a new trade deal.
Norway holds parliamentary elections on 8 September, with implications for regional stability and energy policy.
The UN General Assembly opens on 9 September as a key diplomatic forum.
Macron is expected to avoid a snap election if PM Bayrou loses a confidence vote.
Political risks in the Eurozone continue to weigh on sentiment.
The Chinese yuan gained ground on Friday as improved sentiment in domestic markets, and a softer US dollar offered support. With traders balancing expectations around US jobs data and monitoring signals from Beijing, the currency remains at the centre of attention in global forex markets.
Dollar weakness lifts yuan momentum
The Chinese yuan posted modest gains on Friday in both onshore and offshore trading, supported by a rebound in domestic equities and a softer US dollar.
A surge in Chinese equities is stoking bullish sentiment toward the yuan, raising prospects of a virtuous cycle where gains in one asset class reinforce confidence in the other https://t.co/r7TDYWKuze
According to market observers, fading regulatory concerns helped lift Chinese stocks, which in turn created positive momentum for regional assets.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also contributed to the yuan’s strength by setting the daily reference rate at 7.1064 – well above market forecasts. The offshore yuan (USD/CNH) mirrored this move, trading near 7.1334 by midday in Asia.
Meanwhile, the broader dollar weakened ahead of the highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls (NFP) release later in the day, a report that could heavily influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Technical analysis
The USD/CNH pair is currently trading around 7.13, slipping 0.06% and extending the gradual decline that began after April’s peak near 7.43.
The currency pair remains close to the 7.11 support area, maintaining a steady downtrend. Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned bearishly, pointing to sustained selling pressure. In addition, the MACD remains negative, underlining continued downside momentum.
Picture: USDCNH-ECN trades at 7.1316, edging down 0.06% from its recent level, with support near 7.11 as seen on the VT Markets app.
A clear break below 7.11 could expose the next support level around 7.05. On the upside, initial resistance is located at 7.20, followed by 7.25 – levels that would need to be reclaimed for any shift back towards bullish sentiment.
For now, the technical setup stays bearish, with traders remaining alert to policy signals from Beijing as well as upcoming US economic data that may influence capital flows and yuan stability.
Cautious outlook
Should the NFP report show weaker-than-expected job growth, the US dollar may come under additional pressure, opening the door for USD/CNH to test the 7.10 area.
Conversely, a strong or hawkish outcome from the US labour data could stall further yuan appreciation, particularly against a backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty in China.
In this case, the currency pair may consolidate within its current range as investors reassess both Federal Reserve policy direction and China’s domestic economic resilience.
Market participants will also be watching closely for further PBoC guidance, as the central bank’s daily fixings remain a critical driver of sentiment.
Combined with signals from Chinese authorities on growth measures and fiscal support, these factors will likely determine whether the yuan can sustain its current strength or face renewed selling pressure in the weeks ahead.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Written on September 5, 2025 at 8:28 am, by anakin
What if a single report could open the door to trading opportunities in just minutes? This Friday, 5 September 2025, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release could spark sharp market moves – creating volatility that rewards traders who are ready.
Jobs data shows how the US economy is performing and guides the Federal Reserve on interest rates, making NFP a key driver for the US dollar, stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold and oil.
Last month, July’s report added only 73,000 jobs [link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm], well below earlier expectations. The miss weakened the US dollar and fuelled speculation that the Fed may cut rates sooner than anticipated.
This Friday’s release could be just as pivotal. Here’s what to watch – and how you can prepare.
Understanding NFP
NFP measures how many new jobs were created in the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm work, the military, and certain government roles.
Strong job creation suggests businesses are expanding, consumers are spending, and the economy is running hot – which may keep rates higher for longer. Weak job growth often signals slowdown risks and opens the door to cuts.
Think of NFP as a monthly health check on the US economy. If the results surprise, the patient’s heartbeat suddenly changes – and markets react in seconds.
Breaking down the report: Key metrics to watch
Traders look beyond the headline figure – here’s what really matters this Friday:
Headline job gains: Consensus forecast is 75,000–78,000 jobs. This continues the slowdown seen in July (73,000) and remains well below early-year levels, showing that the labour market is losing momentum. A strong upside surprise (e.g., 120,000+) could lift the US dollar, while a print under 50,000 might trigger market concern.
Unemployment rate: Expected to remain at 4.2%, steady with July. Even small changes can influence market sentiment.
Average hourly earnings: Forecasted monthly increase is 0.3%, consistent with July. On a yearly basis, wages have risen around 3.9%. Stronger pay growth could signal inflation risks, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
Revisions to past data: Recent reports have seen large downward adjustments, for example, July’s revisions to May and June combined for 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. These revisions can move markets unexpectedly.
Labour force participation rate: Trending stable or slightly lower over the past year; July’s rate was 62.2%. Even subtle shifts can affect how unemployment figures are interpreted.
Key numbers at a glance
Market reactions to watch US dollar (USD): A strong jobs print (100K+) would likely support the dollar, especially against currencies like the euro and yen. A weak result could add to selling pressure. Bonds: Yields typically rise on strong job growth as markets price in tighter Fed policy, while a weak report pushes yields lower and fuels rate-cut bets. Shares: Stock markets often cheer weak jobs numbers if they boost rate-cut hopes. However, if the slowdown looks too sharp, concerns about corporate earnings could take over. Gold: Traditionally a safe haven, gold often rises on weak jobs data as traders price in lower yields and a softer dollar. A stronger-than-expected NFP could drag it lower. Oil: Jobs data influences growth expectations and energy demand. A weak labour report may cap oil prices, while stronger hiring could offer support.
How to prepare with VT Markets Volatility around NFP is often sharp but short-lived, making preparation essential. With VT Markets you can: Stay informed with our live Economic Calendar and instant market news. React quickly on our lightning-fast platforms designed for execution speed. Trade flexibly with access to forex, indices, commodities, and other markets – all impacted by the NFP. Manage risk using advanced tools such as stop-loss and take-profit orders. The key is timing: the faster you see the data and execute, the better you can capture opportunities or protect positions.
Stay ready, trade the NFP The US NFP release is more than just an economic update – it’s a catalyst for volatility and opportunity. With forecasts pointing to another soft jobs report, the stage is set for potential market swings that traders can use to their advantage. Be ready this Friday, 5 September, with VT Markets’ tools at your fingertips.
Oil markets remain caught between supply uncertainty and demand signals, leaving traders on alert for the next move. Speculation around OPEC+ production policy, upcoming US stockpile data, and shifting global consumption trends are all shaping sentiment, keeping volatility alive and market direction unclear.
Traders on edge ahead of OPEC+ talks
Oil prices moved lower in Thursday’s early trading session as market participants positioned cautiously before the upcoming OPEC+ policy meeting.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 1.0% to $63.32 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.9% to $66.96, wiping out the previous day’s gains.
The pullback followed a Reuters report indicating that the group could weigh further production increases. Even without an official decision, the possibility of more barrels hitting the market unsettled traders.
Uncertainty remains high, particularly with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) due to release its weekly stockpile data later today. Investors are keen to see whether demand from the world’s top oil consumer can offset the renewed supply-side risk.
Technical analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) is trading at $63.26, down 0.75% on the session, and consolidating after a volatile year. In April 2025, prices dipped as low as $55.11 before surging to $77.90 in July.
Since then, the market has traded in a broad range, with the 30-day moving average flattening and shorter-term averages (5 and 10) struggling to maintain upward momentum – signalling hesitation.
Picture: CL-OIL-ECN trades at 63.263, down 0.75% from its recent level as shown on the VT Markets app.
The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover but remains close to neutral, pointing to limited strength. Key support is placed at $60, with a deeper cushion at $55, while resistance levels stand at $67 and $72.
A sustained breakout above $67 could unlock fresh bullish momentum, whereas a decline below $60 would increase the risk of revisiting the yearly low.
In the short run, prices are expected to remain range-bound, with traders monitoring OPEC+ supply decisions, US inventory data, and broader demand recovery trends.
Cautious forecast
Unless OPEC+ steps in to temper supply expectations, crude oil may remain under pressure as the week draws to a close.
A bearish EIA report showing another surprise build in US stockpiles could pull WTI closer to the $60 handle, amplifying downside risks.
On the other hand, a bullish or dovish report indicating stronger demand could provide a temporary rebound – but traders may treat any recovery with caution given the looming policy risks.
Beyond the immediate data releases, sentiment will continue to hinge on OPEC+ strategy in Vienna, as well as global demand signals from key importers such as China and India.
Currency fluctuations, geopolitical headlines, and broader risk sentiment in financial markets could also influence price direction. For now, the oil market appears locked in a fragile balance, vulnerable to both policy shifts and macroeconomic surprises.
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