5 Key Reasons Why GBP Is Stronger Than USD

The British Pound (GBP) has long held a stronger value than the US Dollar (USD). This relationship is shaped by a complex interplay of historical, economic, and market factors. As one of the strongest currencies in the world, the Pound plays a crucial role in the forex market. The strength of the Pound is influenced by the UK’s stable economy and investor confidence. As part of the most traded currency pairs, it continues to be a major focus for traders. In this article, we will explore why the Pound is stronger than the Dollar, key influencing factors, and how traders can make informed decisions when trading major currency pairs.

Historical Context

The relationship between the British Pound and the US Dollar has evolved over centuries. After World War II, the Pound was pegged to the US Dollar under the Bretton Woods system, and it was valued higher due to the UK’s relatively strong economy. However, after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971, currencies like the Pound and Dollar became more freely traded, with market forces driving their value.

Over time, shifts in economic policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment have caused fluctuations in the exchange rate. The Pound has historically been stronger than the Dollar, but there have been periods of instability where the relationship between the two currencies has been less predictable.

Why Is the Pound Stronger Than the Dollar? 5 Key Reasons

Have you ever wondered why the British Pound often carries more weight than the US Dollar? Several key factors drive this currency dynamic, from economic policies to market perceptions. Let’s take a closer look at the top reasons behind the Pound’s strength.

1. Economic Strength of the UK

The UK has a large, diversified economy with significant global financial influence. As a key financial center, particularly in London, the UK’s financial sector drives substantial demand for the Pound. Historically, this has provided the Pound with a stable foundation for strength, especially when compared to the US economy’s reliance on consumption and trade deficits.

2. Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

The Bank of England’s interest rate policy plays a crucial role in determining the Pound’s strength. Higher interest rates tend to attract investment and strengthen the currency. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US has, at times, kept interest rates low to stimulate economic growth, which can lead to a weaker Dollar in comparison.

3. Inflation Control

The UK’s strong inflation control measures have helped maintain the Pound’s value. The US, on the other hand, has faced periods of higher inflation, weakening the Dollar. The relative stability of inflation rates in the UK compared to the US provides a stable backdrop for the Pound.

4. Market Perception and Risk Appetite

The Pound is often seen as a more stable currency in terms of market perception. Investors view the UK as having a politically stable environment with low risks, while the US, despite its size, faces higher geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties. This difference in perception affects currency strength, with the Pound sometimes seen as a safer option in times of global uncertainty.

5. Trade and Current Account Balances

The UK’s trade relationships and its current account balance have also played a role in supporting the Pound. The UK benefits from strong exports, particularly in the financial services and commodities sectors. In contrast, the US has long had a trade deficit, which impacts the Dollar’s strength. This difference in trade balances creates a stronger demand for the Pound relative to the Dollar.

Key Factors Affecting Currency Strength

Several factors contribute to the ongoing strength of the British Pound relative to the US Dollar:

1. Interest Rates

Interest rates set by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve significantly affect currency values. When the UK raises interest rates, it attracts foreign investment in search of higher returns, boosting demand for the Pound. In contrast, lower interest rates in the US can make the Dollar less appealing to investors, contributing to a weaker Dollar compared to the Pound.

2. Economic Data

Key economic reports, such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, directly impact currency strength. Strong economic performance in the UK, such as higher GDP growth or lower unemployment, typically strengthens the Pound. On the other hand, disappointing economic data from the US can weaken the Dollar as it raises concerns about the health of the economy.

3. Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical events, like Brexit or US political turmoil, can have significant effects on currency strength. For instance, Brexit created uncertainty in the UK, initially weakening the Pound, but it also led to volatility in the Dollar due to concerns about global trade. Similarly, political instability or uncertainty in the US can cause fluctuations that benefit the Pound in comparison.

4. Market Sentiment

Market sentiment plays a critical role in currency strength. When traders lose confidence in the stability of the US economy, especially during times of political instability or economic downturns, they may seek the Pound as a safer alternative. This shift in perception can drive demand for the Pound, causing it to strengthen against the Dollar.

5. Commodity Prices

The UK’s export of oil and gas plays a key role in supporting the Pound. When global oil prices rise, the UK benefits from higher revenues, which can lead to increased demand for the Pound. Meanwhile, fluctuations in commodity prices often have a direct impact on the US Dollar, especially since the Dollar is closely tied to the global oil market.

Comparing the Pound and Dollar Today

The British Pound remains stronger than the US Dollar, trading at approximately 1 GBP = 1.3743 USD. This continued strength reflects several factors, including the UK’s economic performance and investor sentiment.

The Pound has gained strength over time, bolstered by the UK’s recovery from Brexit challenges and a relatively stable economic environment. In contrast, the US Dollar has faced pressures from concerns about fiscal policies, trade deficits, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. These factors, along with geopolitical uncertainties, have caused fluctuations in the value of the Dollar.

While both currencies are influenced by global events and domestic policies, the Pound continues to hold an edge in terms of value, driven by the relative strength of the UK economy and market confidence.

How to Trade GBP/USD

Trading the GBP/USD pair involves several key steps to ensure a successful and informed approach:

Step 1: Find a Reliable & Regulated Broker

Choose a trustworthy broker with a strong reputation and proper regulation to ensure safe trading. VT Markets offers access to a reliable trading platform for the GBP/USD pair.

Step 2: Open & Fund Your Trading Account

Once you’ve chosen your broker, open a trading account and deposit funds. This step ensures you have the necessary capital to execute your trades.

Step 3: Analyze the Forex Market

Use both technical analysis (chart patterns, support and resistance levels) and fundamental analysis (economic data like GDP, inflation, and interest rates) to assess the market. Understanding market trends and economic events will give you a clearer picture of GBP/USD movements.

Learn the key differences between fundamental and technical analysis. 

Step 4: Execute Your First Trade

When you feel confident in your analysis, execute your first trade. You can go long (buy) if you believe the Pound will appreciate, or short (sell) if you expect the Dollar to strengthen.

Discover the differences between a long position and a short position. 

Step 5: Implement Risk Management

Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-loss orders to protect your position and using appropriate position sizes to manage potential losses. This is essential to safeguarding your capital.

Step 6: Stay Informed & Updated

Keep up with global events, economic reports, and news that can impact the GBP/USD pair. Staying updated will help you adjust your strategy as needed and react to market shifts in real time.

New to forex trading? Learn how to trade forex as a beginner.

In Summary

Understanding why the Pound is stronger than the Dollar involves factors like economic performance, interest rates, and market sentiment. The Pound’s relative strength is supported by the UK’s stable economy and investor confidence. To trade GBP/USD effectively, it’s important to select a regulated broker, analyze market trends, and implement risk management strategies. Staying informed on global events and economic data will help you make well-informed trading decisions.

Start Trading GBP/USD Today with VT Markets

At VT Markets, we provide a range of powerful trading tools and educational resources to help you trade GBP/USD effectively. Whether you’re new to forex or an experienced trader, our platform gives you access to advanced trading platforms like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5), along with real-time data, market analysis, and competitive spreads. Plus, our Help Centre is always available to support your trading journey. 

Start trading GBP/USD today with VT Markets and take control of your financial future.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. Why is the Pound stronger than the Dollar?

The Pound is generally stronger than the Dollar due to the UK’s stable economy, lower inflation rates, and investor confidence. These factors contribute to the Pound’s demand, while the Dollar faces challenges like trade deficits and political uncertainty.

2. How do interest rates affect the GBP/USD exchange rate?

Interest rates set by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve directly influence currency values. When the UK raises interest rates, the Pound strengthens as investors seek higher returns. Conversely, lower interest rates in the US can weaken the Dollar.

3. What economic indicators should I watch when trading GBP/USD?

Key indicators include GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation data, and interest rate decisions. These reports reflect the overall health of an economy and can significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate.

4. How can I start trading GBP/USD?

To begin trading GBP/USD, open a trading account with a regulated broker like VT Markets. Use platforms like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) or MetaTrader 5 (MT5) to analyze the market, execute trades, and apply risk management strategies.

5. Is it better to trade GBP/USD during certain times of the day?

Yes, market volatility often increases during the overlap of the London and New York trading sessions. This period (from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM GMT) typically offers the most liquidity and trading opportunities for the GBP/USD pair.

6. What is the best strategy for trading GBP/USD?

Successful strategies include both technical analysis (chart patterns, trendlines, and indicators) and fundamental analysis (economic reports, interest rate decisions). Combining these approaches with effective risk management will help optimize your trading results.

7. How can I manage risk when trading GBP/USD?

To manage risk, use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and ensure you trade with appropriate position sizes. Never risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on any single trade.

8. How does the US Dollar impact global markets?

The US Dollar is considered the world’s primary reserve currency and plays a crucial role in international trade, especially in commodities like oil. Movements in the Dollar can affect global markets and influence currency pairs like GBP/USD.

Oil prices are under pressure as traders grow cautious ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Expectations of a possible supply increase, combined with weaker demand and rising inventories, have weighed on sentiment and capped upward momentum.

Oil dips on OPEC+ risk

Crude oil prices edged lower on Tuesday morning, as market participants turned cautious ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 6 July.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped by 0.2% to trade at $64.96 per barrel, while Brent crude eased to $66.62 per barrel.

The subdued sentiment followed reports suggesting that key OPEC+ members are considering an additional output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August.

Although not yet confirmed, the potential for further supply growth is putting downward pressure on oil prices – especially as demand forecasts soften and global inventories build.

Mixed supply signals cap bullish momentum

The oil market remains caught between opposing forces. On one hand, improving risk appetite continues to lend support to commodities.

On the other, rising US crude stockpiles and the likelihood of increased OPEC+ output have curbed upward momentum.

Analysts at ANZ Research noted that market concerns are now centred on the pace of supply hikes from the alliance, particularly with demand across Asia showing signs of levelling off.

Persistently weak economic indicators from China and narrowing global refinery margins have further dampened the outlook for a balanced oil market.

Until the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting is confirmed, traders are expected to remain cautious.

A sustained break above the $65.50 resistance level may require either a surprise policy shift from producers or stronger global demand signals.

Conversely, a drop below $64.50 could open the door to further downside toward $63.70.

Technical analysis: Key levels to watch

WTI crude is currently under pressure, having failed to reclaim the recent high of $66.08.

The price has since retreated into a narrow consolidation range, hovering just below the $65.00 psychological mark and currently sitting around $64.85.

From a technical perspective, the market is showing signs of indecision. Price action is consolidating between key support at $64.51 and resistance at $65.10.

Picture: Oil stalls under $65 as momentum fades, as seen on the VT Markets app.

Short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30-day) are flattening, suggesting weakening momentum.

The MACD has crossed below its signal line, and the histogram is alternating between red and green—further evidence of a lack of clear direction.

Should WTI break below the $64.51 support zone, it could pave the way for a move towards $64.00.

On the upside, bulls would need a firm close above $65.10 to retest the $65.50 level and potentially extend gains.

The 6 July OPEC+ meeting remains the key catalyst. Confirmation of an additional supply hike could pressure prices further, while a more cautious approach or hints at future tapering might provide support and lift oil back toward the $65.50 area.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Tips for Trading: The Top 12 Trading Tips Every Trader Should Know for Success

Trading can be a rewarding yet challenging endeavor, requiring a combination of knowledge, discipline, and strategy. Whether you’re just starting or looking to refine your skills, understanding the key principles of successful trading is essential. In this guide, we’ve compiled the top 12 trading tips to help you navigate the markets with confidence, manage risks effectively, and improve your trading skills over time.

What Is Trading?

Trading is the act of buying and selling financial instruments such as stocks, forex, indices, precious metals, or ETFs to make a profit. Whether you’re trading stocks on the New York Stock Exchange or currencies in the forex market, trading involves predicting price movements, analyzing market trends, and making informed decisions. Successful traders leverage knowledge, skills, and trading strategies to navigate the complexities of financial markets.

If you are new to the world of trading, it’s essential to understand the mechanics of the market and the risks involved. For traders, success doesn’t come overnight—it requires dedication, a solid plan, and continuous learning.

Discover the top 10 largest stock exchanges in the world by market capitalization. 

Top 12 Tips for Trading

To succeed in trading, below are the 12 essential tips for trading that will help you navigate the markets and enhance your trading strategies:

1. Understand the Market You’re Trading In

Successful traders take time to understand the market dynamics they’re involved in. Each market—whether it’s forex, stocks, commodities, or indices—has its own set of factors that drive price movement. For example, Forex is influenced by interest rates, while commodities are often tied to supply and demand, geopolitical events, and weather conditions. The better you understand these variables, the better prepared you’ll be for making informed decisions.

Tip: Stay up-to-date with market-specific news, economic calendars, and key indicators. Understanding the broader economic landscape will give you an edge when analyzing price movements.

2. Develop a Solid Trading Plan

A well-structured trading plan serves as your blueprint for success. It should include your goals, your risk tolerance, trading strategies, and methods for managing both your capital and emotions. Without a plan, traders are more likely to make impulsive decisions and stray from their strategy. A good plan includes clear entry and exit points and predefined risk management rules.

Tip: Write down your objectives, the amount you’re willing to risk per trade, and how you’ll handle losing streaks. Constantly review and adjust your plan to ensure you’re always improving.

3. Start with a Demo Account

A demo account is an invaluable tool for beginners. It lets you practice trading without risking real money, allowing you to understand the mechanics of placing trades, managing positions, and using trading platforms. Even experienced traders use demo accounts to test new strategies and refine their skills.

Tip: Use the demo account extensively to simulate real market conditions. This will build your confidence and help you understand your trading psychology before committing real capital.

4. Choose the Trading Strategies That Suit You

Different strategies, such as day trading, swing trading, or long-term investing, require different time commitments and risk tolerances. Below are brief overviews of some common long-term and short-term trading strategies:

• Day Trading: Day trading involves buying and selling financial instruments within the same day, requiring constant attention to the market and quick decision-making.
• Swing Trading: Swing Trading involves holding positions for several days or weeks, with the goal of capturing price swings or trends over a longer time horizon.
• Scalping: Scalping involves making many small trades throughout the day, aiming for tiny profits from minor price movements, with very short holding times.
• Hedging: Hedging is a risk management strategy where traders take opposite positions in the market to offset potential losses and reduce exposure to market volatility.
• Trend Following: Trend trading is a long-term strategy that involves identifying and following long-term trends in the market, with the goal of riding these trends for as long as possible. This strategy can be used for stocks, commodities, and even forex.

Tip: Choose a strategy that fits your schedule, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Make sure to test your strategy on a demo account before trading live.

5. Start Small, Build Slowly

As a beginner, starting with small positions is crucial to managing risk. It allows you to gain experience without the emotional strain of risking large amounts of capital. Starting small also gives you the time to adjust to the volatility of the market and to build the necessary skills to trade more effectively.

Tip: Focus on learning the mechanics of trading first. Only increase your position size after you’ve built sufficient confidence and have a proven track record of success.

Learn how to start trading as a beginner. 

6. Leverage Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis examines economic indicators, corporate reports, and other macroeconomic data to gauge market trends, while technical analysis uses historical price movements and charts to predict future price actions. Combining both methods can provide a more well-rounded view of the market, enhancing your ability to make accurate predictions.

Tip: Use fundamental analysis for understanding the bigger picture (e.g., economic data) and technical analysis for spotting trends and precise entry/exit points.

Learn the differences between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. 

7. Understand Your Risk-to-Reward Ratio

The risk-to-reward ratio helps assess whether the potential gain justifies the risk involved in a trade. A ratio of 1:3 means you’re willing to risk $1 to potentially make $3. This helps you set clear expectations and makes it easier to decide whether a trade is worth pursuing.

Tip: Always calculate the risk-to-reward ratio before entering a trade. Ensure the potential reward is at least three times the amount of risk you’re willing to take.

8. Use Proper Risk Management Strategies

Risk management is key to protecting your trading capital. Strategies like setting stop-loss orders, take profit orders, limiting the number of trades, and diversifying your portfolio can help you manage the risks associated with trading. Effective risk management ensures that a series of losses won’t wipe out your account.

• Stop-Loss Orders: Limit potential losses by automatically closing positions if the market moves against you.
• Take Profit Orders: Automatically close positions once a specific profit target is reached, locking in profits before market conditions change unexpectedly.

Tip: Always use stop-loss and take-profit orders, limit the amount you risk per trade, and diversify your portfolio to manage risk effectively.

9. Stay Disciplined and Avoid Emotional Trading

Emotional trading—driven by fear, greed, or excitement—leads to rash decisions and impulsive trades. The best traders stick to their plan, regardless of market noise or emotional highs and lows. Overcoming emotions and staying disciplined are essential for long-term success.

Tip: Implement strict rules for your trades. When you feel emotionally overwhelmed, take a step back and avoid making trading decisions until you’re in a calmer state.

10. Stay Informed and Updated with Market News

Global events, economic announcements, and geopolitical developments can significantly affect market movements. Staying informed helps you anticipate these changes and make proactive decisions. Key economic data, such as Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and inflation, can cause volatility in the markets, particularly in forex and stock trading. For example, a stronger-than-expected NFP report could signal a robust economy, causing the US dollar to strengthen, while higher inflation readings might prompt central banks to adjust interest rates.

Tip: Set up news alerts, subscribe to reliable market news sources, and follow economic calendars to stay on top of key events such as NFP reports, CPI releases, and inflation data, as these will help you anticipate major market movements.

11. Learn from Your Mistakes

Mistakes are inevitable in trading, but they provide valuable lessons. The key to becoming a successful trader is analyzing your errors, understanding what went wrong, and refining your strategy based on those experiences. Keep a trading journal to track your decisions, emotions, and results.

Tip: Regularly review your past trades and identify what led to both successful and unsuccessful outcomes. Use these insights to adjust your future approach.

12. Continuously Improve and Refine Your Skills

The best traders never stop learning. The markets are constantly evolving, and it’s crucial to stay updated with new strategies, tools, and developments. Whether it’s reading books, attending webinars, or practicing on demo accounts, continuous learning is a cornerstone of trading success.

Tip: Set time aside each week to learn something new about trading. This could be through books, videos, or by discussing strategies with other traders.

Common Trading Mistakes to Avoid

While trading, traders often fall into certain pitfalls that can result in significant losses. Here are some of the most common mistakes to avoid:

1. Overtrading

Overtrading occurs when traders make excessive trades, often out of frustration or the desire to recover losses. This leads to taking unnecessary risks and impulsive decisions without proper analysis, increasing the likelihood of significant losses. It often stems from emotional reactions rather than strategic thinking.

2. Ignoring Risk Management

Ignoring risk management means not using tools like stop-loss or take-profit orders, leaving positions vulnerable to market fluctuations. Without proper risk controls, traders expose themselves to the possibility of large, unrecoverable losses. It’s crucial for maintaining long-term profitability in trading.

3. Chasing Losses

Chasing losses happens when traders take bigger risks to recover from a loss, often leading to larger setbacks. This emotional response pushes traders to deviate from their strategy, leading to impulsive and poorly thought-out decisions. It’s a common cycle that can amplify losses.

4. Lack of Patience

A lack of patience results in entering trades too early or without proper setup, driven by impatience for quick results. This can lead to poor trades, missed opportunities, or early exits from positions, ultimately hindering long-term success. Waiting for the right opportunities is key in trading.

5. Neglecting Emotional Control

Neglecting emotional control leads to decisions driven by fear, greed, or excitement, rather than logic. This results in erratic behavior like holding onto losses too long or taking unnecessary risks. Emotional trading often leads to inconsistent performance and significant mistakes.

In Summary

Trading requires a combination of strategy, discipline, and continuous learning. The key to success lies in understanding the market, choosing the right trading strategy, managing risks effectively, and staying disciplined throughout your journey. By following these essential trading tips, you can navigate the complexities of the market, avoid common mistakes, and gradually improve your performance. Remember, trading is a long-term endeavor that demands patience, practice, and consistent refinement of your skills.

Start Trading with VT Markets Today!

Ready to take your trading to the next level? With MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5), you can access powerful trading tools that allow you to analyze markets, execute trades, and implement strategies with ease. Enjoy competitive spreads across a wide range of assets, and benefit from our comprehensive Help Centre for any questions or support you need. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned trader, VT Markets provides the educational resources, tools, and support to help you succeed in the markets. 

Open an account with VT Markets today and start making your trades with confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What are the top 12 trading tips for success?

Here are the 12 essential trading tips that can help you improve your trading:

• Understand the market you’re trading in 
• Develop a solid trading plan 
• Start with a demo account 
• Choose the trading strategies that suit you 
• Start small, build slowly 
• Leverage fundamental and technical analysis 
• Understand your risk-to-reward ratio 
• Use proper risk management strategies 
• Stay disciplined and avoid emotional trading
• Stay informed and updated with market news
• Learn from your mistakes
• Continuously improve and refine your skills

2. How can I avoid emotional trading?

To avoid emotional trading, always stick to your plan, use stop-loss orders, and focus on long-term goals. It’s also helpful to take breaks if you feel emotionally drained.

3. What are the most common mistakes in trading?

Some of the most common mistakes include overtrading, ignoring risk management, and letting emotions drive trading decisions.

4. How much capital should I start with?

The amount of capital you start with depends on your risk tolerance and trading goals. It’s advisable to start small and use a demo account to practice before risking real money.

5. Can I trade without experience?

While it’s possible to start trading without experience, it’s highly recommended to first educate yourself and practice using demo accounts before entering the live market.

6. How can I improve my trading skills?

The key to improving your trading skills is continuous learning. You can improve by practicing with a demo account, studying market analysis, learning from your trades, and keeping up with the latest trends and strategies.

7. How do I set up stop-loss and take-profit orders?

Stop-loss and take-profit orders are easy to set up directly on your trading platform. These orders automatically close your position when the price reaches a certain level, helping to manage risk and lock in profits.

8. Can I trade on mobile?

Yes, VT Markets offers mobile trading apps, allowing you to trade on the go with the same powerful features and tools available on the desktop version.

9. What markets can I trade with VT Markets?

VT Markets provides access to a wide range of markets, including forex, stocks, indices, ETFs, precious metals, energies, soft commodities, and bonds, giving you the flexibility to diversify your trading portfolio.

10. Is trading with VT Markets safe?

Yes, VT Markets is a regulated broker, ensuring that your funds and personal information are protected. The platform uses advanced security measures and complies with regulatory standards to provide a safe trading environment.

Gold prices dipped as improving global sentiment and progress in trade talks shifted investor focus away from safe-haven assets. Easing Middle East tensions and growing optimism around new trade deals encouraged a move toward riskier investments, putting pressure on gold.

Gold dips on easing tensions and trade hopes

Gold prices edged lower at the start of the week, dipping to approximately $3,260 per ounce as investor appetite shifted away from traditional safe-haven assets.

The precious metal touched an intraday low of $3,247.91 before rebounding to settle around $3,280.48 by market close.

The recent de-escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran has helped calm market nerves, reducing demand for gold as a protective asset.

In addition, positive developments in global trade negotiations have further dampened safe-haven flows.

US President Donald Trump confirmed a formal trade agreement with China and hinted at a potential major deal with India.

Talks are also reportedly progressing with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and other partners remain ongoing.

Technical analysis: Resistance caps gold’s rebound

On the 15-minute XAU/USD chart, gold continues to recover from last week’s lows.

Prices have moved above the short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30), supported by a bullish MACD crossover and increasing histogram strength.

Picture: Gold steady, eyes on $3,300 breakout zone, as seen on the VT Markets app.

However, the upside momentum is facing resistance near $3,283.32, and overall strength remains tentative.

If diplomatic progress and trade optimism persist, gold may struggle to break convincingly above the $3,285.00 threshold.

On the downside, a drop below $3,250.00 could open the path towards $3,230.00.

However, any deterioration in geopolitical stability or weaker US economic data could quickly revive safe-haven interest in gold.

Fed policy outlook hinges on key US jobs data

Traders are now turning their attention to a series of high-impact labour market reports from the United States, including job openings, ADP private payrolls, and the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls (NFP) due Friday.

These figures are expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in the coming months.

Although Fed officials have maintained a cautious tone recently, market participants are increasingly pricing in potential rate cuts later this year.

A softer-than-expected NFP report would strengthen the case for monetary easing and could boost gold prices back towards the $3,300 level.

Conversely, stronger jobs data may weigh on gold, keeping it under pressure with short-term downside targets around $3,240 or lower.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

This week’s shortened US trading schedule due to Independence Day may compress volatility into early sessions, particularly ahead of critical releases such as the US jobs report and ISM data. Commodities remain firmly supported by elevated geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, while Asian markets react to evolving trade sentiment and regional PMI data.

KEY INDICATORS

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar holds near recent lows as trade and tariff tensions intensify ahead of the 9 July expiration of the current pause.

Global currencies remain firm, while safe-haven demand strengthens the Japanese yen and Swiss franc amid rising geopolitical risks.

Commodities & equities

Oil prices remain firm, with Brent hovering near multi-week highs due to ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and persistent Middle East tensions.

The broader commodity complex benefits from supply risks linked to geopolitical instability and anticipated OPEC+ policy shifts.

US and global equities continue to reach record highs through June and July, supported by subdued volatility—though analysts caution that markets may be underpricing the risk of tariff extensions, inflation surprises, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Asian markets & key events

Asian equities rally alongside global markets, buoyed by optimism that the US tariff pause will be extended.

Regional currencies such as the Korean won (KRW) and Singapore dollar (SGD) remain sensitive to developments in US–Asia trade negotiations.

Key upcoming data releases include US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs on 1 and 3 July, and the June non-farm payrolls report on 3 July, which are expected to influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Markets will observe a partial holiday schedule, closing early on 3 July and fully on 4 July for US Independence Day.

MARKET MOVERS

Nasdaq 100

• Technical breakout: NQ recently broke above the 22,100 resistance level, with bullish momentum accelerating toward the all-time high range of 22,425–22,450. A daily close above this zone would confirm breakout continuation.
• Target projection (bullish): With the breakout in motion, upside targets are set at $23,150 (near-term) and $24,400–$24,850 in an extended move.
• Target projection (bearish): If price fails to hold above 22,425–22,450 or breaks below 21,750, a pullback to $21,600–$21,750 is likely, with deeper downside risk toward $20,970 and potentially $20,084.
• Opening expectation: NQ is expected to open the week slightly bullish, trading above Friday’s close near $22,300–$22,350, supported by strength in tech and easing trade sentiment.
• Primary support zone: $21,750–$22,000 (recent lows and key pivot region).
• Secondary support zone: $21,600–$21,500 (prior consolidation zone).
• Tertiary support zone: $20,970–$20,084 (deeper retracement territory).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy continuation above $22,450 with targets at $23,150 and $24,400–$24,850.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on rejection at $22,425–$22,450 or breakdown below $21,750, with targets at $21,600 and $20,970, possibly extending to $20,084.
• Stop-loss level: Below $21,750 for bullish positions; above $22,500 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: US non-farm payrolls (3 July), ongoing US–Canada trade commentary, and geopolitical headlines from the Middle East, which could drive risk sentiment and tech stock flows.

USD/JPY

• Technical breakout: USD/JPY has been consolidating within a triangle pattern, with support near ¥145.00 and resistance around ¥146.00–¥146.25. A daily close above this zone would confirm a bullish breakout, while a break below ¥145.00 could indicate a bearish reversal.
• Target projection (bullish): If the breakout continues, upside targets are set at ¥148.00–¥148.50 (near-term), with an extended move potentially reaching ¥149.00–¥150.00, supported by dollar strength and technical momentum.
• Target projection (bearish): A break below ¥145.00 opens the path toward ¥143.15–¥143.50, with a deeper decline possibly extending to ¥142.00–¥142.20 in a sustained downtrend.
• Opening expectation: USD/JPY is expected to open the week around ¥145.30–¥145.50 with a mild bullish bias, supported by safe-haven flows and anticipation of a technical breakout following last week’s test of resistance.
• Primary support zone: ¥145.00–¥145.10 (triangle base and 50-day EMA).
• Secondary support zone: ¥144.00–¥143.90 (prior breakout base and Fibonacci retracement).
• Tertiary support zone: ¥142.00–¥142.20 (200-day EMA and major support floor).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy continuation above ¥146.25, targeting ¥148.00 and ¥149.00–¥150.00.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on rejection at ¥146.00–¥146.25 or breakdown below ¥145.00, targeting ¥143.15 and ¥142.00–¥142.20.
• Stop-loss level: Below ¥145.00 for bullish positions; above ¥146.30 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: Geopolitical tensions (particularly US–Iran), commentary from the Fed and Bank of Japan (especially on 4 July), and positioning risk amid low summer liquidity, which may amplify directional moves.

Nikkei 225

• Technical breakout: The Nikkei has broken above key resistance near 38,340, confirming the start of a bullish C-wave based on wave analysis. This breakout signals accelerating upside momentum and a potential continuation of the trend.
• Target projection (bullish): Short-term upside targets are set at 39,500 (February monthly high), with an extended move potentially reaching 40,725–43,576 by early July, in line with broader wave and seasonal projections.
• Target projection (bearish): A reversal below 38,340 could open the path toward 36,675 (morning star reversal zone), with deeper downside risk extending toward the 35,000–36,000 area if momentum shifts.
• Opening expectation: The Nikkei is expected to open modestly higher around 40,150–40,200, supported by Friday’s rally, a softer yen, and easing trade tensions.
• Primary support zone: 38,340–38,400 (breakout pivot and short-term structure support).
• Secondary support zone: 36,675–37,000 (prior reversal zone and 20-day moving average).
• Tertiary support zone: 35,000–36,000 (broader retracement area).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy continuation above 38,400, targeting 39,500 and 40,725–43,576.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on rejection near 39,500 or breakdown below 38,340, targeting 37,000 and 36,675.
• Stop-loss level: Below 38,300 for bullish positions; above 38,600 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: US non-farm payrolls (3 July), continued easing in US–China trade tensions, and potential market-moving commentary from the Bank of Japan. Any shifts in global risk sentiment or yen valuation could directly impact the Nikkei’s trajectory.

NEWS HEADLINES

Geopolitical and trade tensions intensify

Trump’s remarks questioning NATO’s Article 5 commitments reignited transatlantic tensions, prompting sharp responses from European leaders.

Trade talks between the US and Canada were abruptly halted after disagreements over Canada’s proposed tech tax, raising the risk of renewed tariffs.

Political focus this week (30 June – 4 July) shifts to the NATO Summit, where defence spending pledges and alliance unity will be under scrutiny amid growing instability.

Dollar slips as euro and yen gain ground

The US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2021, pressured by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and uncertainty surrounding the Fed chair’s future.

The euro climbed to a three-year high, while the yen also gained, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a broader shift toward risk-on sentiment.

Ceasefire lifts global equities and tempers commodities

Brent and WTI crude prices retreated after surging earlier in the week, as a ceasefire between Iran and Israel reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Gold posted its second consecutive weekly loss as investor focus turned to upcoming US PCE inflation data for direction on monetary policy.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, buoyed by dovish Fed expectations and optimism over resumed global trade talks.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index (excluding Japan) rose to its highest level since 2021, led by gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney.

Asian markets stabilised as fears over Strait of Hormuz disruptions eased, supporting regional equities.

However, Australia’s export outlook weakened as lower commodity prices and potential new US tariffs threatened resource-driven earnings through 2025–2026.

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A new wave is sweeping through the financial markets – one powered not by hype but by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

Known as the “Golden Wave,” this phenomenon refers to the extraordinary surge in demand for semiconductor chips that power generative AI.

Companies like Nvidia and Broadcom have seen their stock prices soar, with Nvidia reaching a record-breaking market capitalisation of $3.76 trillion in June 2025.

For traders, the Golden Wave presents a compelling chance to ride a transformative global trend. Unlike speculative bubbles of the past, this movement is rooted in real infrastructure growth, technological innovation, and enterprise adoption of AI tools.

What is the Golden Wave?

At its core, the Golden Wave refers to the market rally driven by explosive demand for AI semiconductor chips.

These chips are essential for running data centres, robotics, medical diagnostics, autonomous vehicles, and countless AI-powered applications. As AI becomes embedded across industries, the infrastructure enabling it becomes increasingly valuable.

Driving this wave are several key factors: rapid AI adoption (with over 70% of enterprises integrating AI tools by late 2024), breakthroughs in chip manufacturing (e.g., TSMC’s 2nm and 3nm technologies), and surging investment in data centre expansion.

Companies like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC are at the heart of this shift, developing high-performance chips that serve as the “engines” of the AI revolution.

To illustrate, Nvidia’s latest Blackwell processors are powering generative AI solutions across cloud, medical, and automotive sectors, signalling long-term structural demand and reinforcing investor confidence.

Golden Wave vs AI hype

It’s important to distinguish the Golden Wave from past tech hype cycles. This isn’t about chasing trendy start-ups or speculative tokens – it’s about real capital expenditure and enterprise-grade infrastructure.

Unlike the short-lived excitement around chatbots or consumer apps, the Golden Wave is underpinned by massive investment.

Nvidia’s revenue more than doubled to $130.5 billion in FY2025, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, TSMC plans to spend up to $42 billion on chip manufacturing in 2025, its highest annual CapEx ever.

These are not speculative bets – they reflect sustained, enterprise-scale demand.

For traders, this means the opportunity is more than just narrative. It’s grounded in hard numbers and robust fundamentals.

What to expect in 2025

Looking ahead, the outlook remains bullish, though not without risks.

Global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $755 billion in 2025, with AI chips leading the charge. The industry expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% through 2032.

However, the road isn’t smooth. Trade tensions, such as the US imposing tariffs of up to 54% on Chinese semiconductor imports, create volatility.

Supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory uncertainties could also weigh on short-term performance.

We’re also witnessing a split: AI-related firms like Nvidia and Broadcom are thriving, while legacy chipmakers tied to smartphones or PCs lag.

Traders must be selective. For example, Nvidia faced a $4.5 billion revenue loss in Q1 2025 due to export restrictions but quickly rebounded thanks to sustained AI demand.

Think of the Golden Wave like surfing: thrilling, but it requires balance and timing.

How traders can benefit

Retail traders don’t need to be tech experts to benefit from this trend. Here are some simple ways to gain exposure:

Invest in leading stocks: Consider blue-chip AI players like Nvidia (12% global chip share), Broadcom (8%), and AMD (5%). These companies are at the forefront of the AI infrastructure boom.

Use ETFs for diversification: Semiconductor-focused ETFs like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF or iShares Semiconductor ETF provide broad exposure and reduce single-stock risk. These are ideal for traders new to the sector.

Stay updated: Track quarterly earnings, product launches, and industry shifts. For example, TSMC doubling its CoWoS production in 2025 was a bullish signal for the entire sector.

Avoid overexposure: Allocate only a portion of your portfolio to semiconductors. Avoid chasing price spikes driven by news cycles or social media hype.

Trading strategies for the Golden Wave

To successfully navigate the fast-moving AI semiconductor sector, practical and beginner-friendly trading strategies are essential. Here are three effective approaches:

Trend-following

In a strong uptrend like the Golden Wave, trend-following helps traders ride momentum.

This strategy uses indicators like the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to identify upward price movements.

When a stock breaks above key averages, it may signal the start of a bullish phase. Traders stay in the trade while the trend holds and use stop-losses to manage risk if momentum reverses.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)

Given the sector’s volatility, DCA is a smart way to build exposure over time.

By investing a fixed amount regularly – regardless of short-term price swings – traders avoid the risk of poor timing and benefit from cost averaging.

This approach is especially effective during Golden Wave corrections or pullbacks, when long-term fundamentals remain strong.

News-based trading

The AI semiconductor sector reacts sharply to earnings, new chip launches, export restrictions, or capex announcements.

News-based traders monitor these catalysts to enter or exit positions quickly.

In the context of the Golden Wave, staying alert to updates from key players like Nvidia, TSMC, or cloud providers can uncover timely opportunities while managing downside risk.

Risk management tips:

• Use stop-loss orders (5–7%).
• Limit chip sector exposure to 10–20% of total capital.
• Avoid leverage unless you are an experienced trader.

For those new to trading, practising these strategies with a risk-free demo account, such as the one offered by VT Markets, can build confidence before moving to live trading.

Conclusion

The Golden Wave isn’t just another trend – it’s a deep, structural shift in how global technology operates. The rise of AI-powered infrastructure has created unprecedented demand for advanced semiconductors, presenting a rare opportunity for informed retail traders.

To benefit, focus on high-quality stocks or diversified ETFs, follow clear strategies like trend-following or DCA, and always manage your risk. Remember: market waves can lift you, but only if you’re prepared to ride them wisely.

Ready to take the first step? Open a live account with VT Markets today to access real-time analytics, global stock CFDs, and powerful trading tools – everything you need to ride the Golden Wave with confidence.