ING said the National Bank of Poland is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% for a longer period. It noted this meeting has no new forecast and is the first since the March rate cut, with attention on the Governor’s press conference.

Markets have removed about one and a half expected rate hikes after the US‑Iran ceasefire announcement. Pricing remains below 20bp at the one‑year horizon, which ING said is the lowest in the CEE region.

Policy And Inflation Backdrop

ING reported that government action in the fuel market is expected to keep inflation roughly within the central bank’s tolerance band. It forecast rates staying unchanged for an extended period.

EUR/PLN recorded its biggest one‑day fall in a year, erasing about half of the rise from pre‑conflict levels. ING said the pair and the region are still mainly driven by geopolitical news, and that a move back below 4.220 may take longer even if risk sentiment stays supportive and the ceasefire holds.

Looking back to 2025, we saw a clear playbook for the zloty’s recovery after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) held its main rate at 3.75%, which calmed markets and allowed the EUR/PLN to erase about half its conflict-driven losses. This stable rate environment provided a strong anchor for the currency’s rebound.

Today, the situation has evolved, with the NBP having shifted its stance to combat persistent price pressures. With the benchmark rate now at 4.50% and March 2026 inflation data coming in at 4.1%, the central bank is clearly more hawkish than it was last year. The EUR/PLN is currently trading around 4.280, reflecting this tighter policy but also new market uncertainties.

Strategy And Key Levels

This creates a different trading environment compared to the straightforward recovery we witnessed in 2025. The mixed signals of high interest rates supporting the zloty against renewed geopolitical jitters suggest an increase in volatility. Traders should consider buying short-dated EUR/PLN straddles to profit from a significant price move in either direction over the next few weeks.

The interest rate differential between Poland and the Eurozone is also more attractive now than it was during the 2025 pause. This makes receiving PLN in forward contracts a compelling carry trade, as traders can earn the higher yield. As long as the pair remains relatively stable, this strategy will generate positive returns.

While the pre-conflict level below 4.220 remains a long-term reference, it is not the immediate focus. The key level to watch in the coming weeks is the 4.250 support, which has held twice since February 2026. A break below this could signal further zloty strength, while a failure to hold could see the pair quickly test resistance near 4.320.

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The US Dollar pared losses and held just above 99.00 on Thursday after rebounding from 98.50 on Wednesday. Demand for the currency rose as markets reacted to doubts about an Iran ceasefire.

After the ceasefire announcement, Iranian authorities closed the Strait of Hormuz following an Israeli attack in Lebanon. The US and Israel said Lebanon was not part of the agreement, while Tehran reported breaches of three key clauses and questioned further talks.

Ceasefire Talks And Market Reaction

The process continued, with Washington and Tehran set to send delegations for direct talks in Pakistan on Saturday. US President Donald Trump warned of further “action” if Iran does not comply.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed a balanced approach. Rate cuts remain possible, but some officials also raised the chance of tightening for the first time since easing began in September 2024.

Later on Thursday, the US PCE Price Index is expected to show steady price pressures in February. Attention is on March CPI, with headline inflation forecast at 3.3% year on year, the highest in nearly two years, and core CPI seen at 2.7% from 2.5% in February.

A correction on April 9 at 09:05 GMT clarified that the easing cycle started in September 2024, not August 2024.

Trading Implications Under Rising Uncertainty

Given the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran, we should anticipate a sharp increase in market volatility. We saw during the Black Sea crisis in 2025 how the VIX, the market’s fear gauge, can surge above 35 in a matter of days. Buying VIX call options or at-the-money straddles on major indices like the SPX offers a direct way to profit from the rising uncertainty over the weekend talks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy, accounting for about 21% of worldwide petroleum liquids consumption. This is reminiscent of the supply shock of late 2025, which caused Brent crude futures to spike over 15% in a single session. Traders should consider buying call options on crude oil futures or energy sector ETFs to position for a potential breakdown in negotiations.

The US Dollar is benefiting from both safe-haven demand and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve. The Dollar Index (DXY) pushing past 99 could be the beginning of a larger move; a failure in the Pakistan talks could easily see it challenge the 104 level we last saw during the global growth scare of 2025. Long positions in USD futures or call options against currencies with high energy import costs are looking attractive.

This week’s March CPI report is the key domestic catalyst, as it will be the first official reading of the war’s inflationary impact. We expect the 3.3% headline number to force the Fed’s hand, confirming that the inflation we battled through 2025 is not yet defeated. This outlook makes buying put options on Treasury bond ETFs like TLT a prudent hedge against the Fed delaying or reversing its rate cuts.

This combination of geopolitical risk and stubborn inflation creates a difficult environment for equities. The market is facing pressures similar to the 10% correction we navigated in the fall of 2025. We believe purchasing put options on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 indices is a necessary defensive strategy to hedge portfolios against a significant downturn in the coming weeks.

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Gold (XAU/USD) traded sideways on Thursday in early Europe, holding above $4,700 after falling from a three-week high. Doubts about the US-Iran ceasefire supported the US dollar and weighed on gold, while the Federal Reserve’s more dovish outlook limited further dollar strength.

Israel launched a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, and the White House said Lebanon is not included in the two-week US-Iran ceasefire. Iran then shut shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to leave the ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue, which supported the US dollar and pressured gold.

Fed Outlook And Energy Driven Inflation Risks

Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting showed officials were in no rush to cut rates, citing inflation risks linked to Middle East energy prices. Even so, policymakers still pointed to one rate cut by end-2026 and another in 2027, which capped the dollar’s rebound from a nearly one-month low and helped gold.

Traders awaited the US PCE Price Index later on Thursday and the US CPI report on Friday. On charts, gold stayed below the 200-period 4-hour SMA and the 50.0% March retracement, with MACD negative and RSI near 52.

Support sits at $4,604 (38.2%), then $4,412 (23.6%) and $4,102. Resistance is at $4,758 (50.0%), then $4,895–$4,914, and $5,000.

Given the tension between a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and a dovish Federal Reserve, we see implied volatility in gold options climbing. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has ticked up to 22.5, its highest level in three months, as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude futures surging past $115 a barrel. This environment suggests preparing for sharp price swings rather than betting on a clear direction.

Options Strategies For A High Volatility Setup

With the crucial US PCE and CPI inflation reports due, traders should consider strategies that benefit from a large price move, regardless of direction. We recall how a hot CPI print back in late 2025 stalled a promising rally, and with last month’s CPI coming in at a slightly elevated 3.1%, the market is on edge. Buying straddles or strangles on XAU/USD could be a prudent way to play the potential breakout from the current consolidation around $4,700.

For those with existing long positions, the technical weakness below the $4,758 resistance level is a concern. To hedge against a potential drop triggered by strong inflation data or further military escalation in Lebanon, buying put options with strike prices near the $4,604 support level offers downside protection. This approach allows participation in any upside while capping potential losses if the fragile geopolitical situation deteriorates further.

Conversely, the Fed’s signal for one rate cut this year creates a floor for gold, limiting the downside. We have seen Fed funds futures pricing for a December 2026 rate cut fall to a 45% probability from 70% last month, meaning any surprisingly soft inflation data could cause a rapid repricing and send gold higher. Cautiously bullish traders might look at bull call spreads to target a move toward the heavier resistance zone near $4,900, limiting the upfront cost of the trade.

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Sweden’s preliminary consumer price index for March was weaker than expected. Headline inflation fell to 1.6% year-on-year versus 2.2% expected, while core inflation was 1.1% versus 1.5% expected.

The softer readings were linked to base effects and the krona’s appreciation last year. The Riksbank’s forecasts already point to inflation falling well below target for both measures.

Inflation Outlook And Key Drivers

Possible extra downside pressure is also expected from a planned VAT cut next month. At the same time, higher oil prices are a risk that could lift inflation.

The Riksbank reiterated at its March meeting that it will monitor developments as the conflict evolves after the ceasefire. For now, the data does not imply a policy shift.

The Swedish krona is described as mainly influenced by global risk sentiment. Changes in interest rate expectations are currently a less important driver.

We recall that in 2025, the Riksbank looked through surprisingly weak inflation, citing offsetting oil price risks. The situation now in early 2026 is different, with recent data showing a firmer footing for price pressures. Sweden’s latest CPIF reading for March 2026 came in at 2.1%, just above the central bank’s target.

Implications For Rates And Volatility

This sustained inflation means the Riksbank can no longer afford to be as patient as it was back in 2025. While the policy rate has held at 3.75% for two consecutive meetings, the market is signaling a change. We are seeing overnight index swaps now pricing in a more than 60% probability of a rate hike by the June meeting.

For the Swedish krona, this creates a complex environment for options traders. While rising rate expectations should be supportive, the currency remains highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, a theme we also observed throughout 2025. We saw the SEK weaken against the euro last week after soft German manufacturing data, reminding us that its fate is tied to broader European events.

Given the tension between domestic rate policy and external risk factors, traders should consider strategies that benefit from increased volatility in the EUR/SEK pair. Long volatility positions, such as buying straddles or strangles, could be prudent ahead of the next Riksbank meeting. This approach allows for a payoff whether the currency moves sharply on a hawkish surprise or sells off due to a sudden downturn in risk appetite.

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Dow Jones futures fell 0.36% to about 47,950 in European trading on Thursday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 0.38% and 0.37% to about 6,800 and 25,000.

Markets weakened after reports that Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US breached three clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal and described further talks as “unreasonable”. US Vice President JD Vance said the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

Geopolitical Risk Hits Markets

The Middle East conflict is in its second month and has pushed up energy prices, raising inflation risks. This has added to expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer.

Federal Reserve March Meeting Minutes show the bank is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, while noting risks are becoming more balanced. Traders are expected to monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due on Friday.

Oil prices rose modestly on supply concerns after Iranian media reported paused tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones rose 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.8% after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was agreed.

The rapid reversal from optimism to pessimism highlights extreme market sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. We should anticipate heightened volatility in the coming weeks, making long volatility positions through VIX futures or options on the S&P 500 attractive. We saw similar patterns last year in 2025, where the VIX index quickly jumped from the mid-teens to above 25 on initial conflict reports.

Positioning For Volatility

Given the market’s strong positive reaction to the ceasefire news yesterday, the current pullback suggests a vulnerability to further negative developments. We should consider buying put options on major indices like the Dow and Nasdaq 100 as a hedge or a speculative play on the talks in Islamabad failing. The risk of a sharp downturn is significant if the Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 20% of global petroleum liquids, faces a prolonged closure.

Renewed supply concerns in the energy market present a direct opportunity, especially with Brent crude already climbing back towards $100 a barrel. We should look at call options on oil futures or major energy ETFs, as a breakdown in negotiations could cause a price spike similar to what was seen in late 2025. This trade acts as a strong hedge against the broader market risk caused by the conflict.

The situation reinforces the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, as rising energy costs will pressure inflation. With the latest February Consumer Price Index showing inflation still elevated at 3.5%, a hot March CPI report tomorrow would almost certainly push expectations for a Fed rate cut further into the future. We can position for this by using derivatives that bet against a summer rate cut, as market pricing for a July cut has already dropped from 70% to below 50% this month.

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GBP/USD briefly moved above 1.3480, then fell back to the mid‑1.33s. It is now seen trading in a near‑term range of 1.3350 to 1.3450.

Over the next one to three weeks, the balance of risk is still upward. A move towards 1.3520 would need a daily close above 1.3480.

Near Term Levels And Conditions

Support is placed at 1.3280, described as a strong level. The set-up for a close above 1.3480 is expected to remain in place while 1.3280 holds.

A weekly close below 1.3300 may lead to a drop towards the 1.2945/1.3010 support zone. The note is dated 06 Mar 2026, with 1.3310 referenced.

The piece says it was produced with an AI tool and checked by an editor. It is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team.

Looking back to early March, our view was that upside risk for GBP/USD would build, but only if the pair closed above the 1.3480 resistance level. That upside scenario never materialized as the pound failed to sustain any momentum. Instead, the strong support we identified at 1.3280 came under significant pressure and ultimately gave way.

Updated Market Backdrop And Trade Ideas

The fundamental picture shifted decisively against the pound following the release of the late March US jobs report, which showed the US economy added 295,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. This bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive policy stance, strengthening the dollar across the board. In contrast, the UK’s latest inflation figures came in slightly below forecast at 2.1%, easing pressure on the Bank of England to keep pace.

As we noted could happen last month, the weekly close below the key 1.3300 level triggered a more significant decline. The pair is now trading in a new, lower range, currently hovering around 1.3150. This confirms that the bearish scenario is now in play, with our focus shifting towards the major support zone previously identified at 1.2945/1.3010.

For derivative traders, this environment suggests buying put options to position for further downside. We see value in purchasing puts with a 1.3000 strike price and an early May expiration. This strategy would profit from a continued slide towards our long-term support target.

Alternatively, for those anticipating that the recent breakdown will cap any potential rallies, selling call options offers a compelling strategy. The broken support around 1.3280 now serves as firm resistance. Selling calls with a strike price of 1.3300 would allow traders to collect premium while betting that the pound will not recover above this new ceiling in the coming weeks.

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The Australian Dollar fell 0.2% to near 0.7030 against the US Dollar during Thursday’s European session. It weakened as risk appetite dipped amid doubts about the two-week US–Iran ceasefire announced early Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% near 6,770 at the time of reporting. The US Dollar Index rose 0.1% to near 99.10.

Ceasefire Doubts Drive Risk Aversion

Concerns about the ceasefire followed continued attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the US violated the first clause of a 10-point proposal calling for “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.

The US and Iran said they will send teams to Pakistan for a first round of talks on the 10-point peace proposal. The talks are scheduled to begin on Saturday.

On policy, traders see a 60% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its Official Cash Rate again at the May meeting, according to Reuters. Expectations are linked to high inflation pressures in Australia.

In the US, markets are watching the March Consumer Price Index data due on Friday.

We recall how the Australian dollar weakened in early April 2025 due to uncertainty around the US-Iran ceasefire, even as the market priced in another RBA rate hike. Today, the AUD trades significantly lower around 0.6650, as the monetary policy outlook has completely reversed. Geopolitical risk remains a factor, but central bank policy is the main driver of our current strategy.

Policy Regime Shift And Strategy Implications

That period last year taught us how sensitive the Aussie dollar is to Middle East headline risk, which can overshadow domestic factors in the short term. The initial fragility of that 2025 ceasefire created significant volatility, a lesson we must apply to current tensions. We should consider buying cheap, out-of-the-money put options on the AUD/USD to hedge against any sudden flare-ups that could trigger a similar risk-averse move.

Unlike in 2025 when a 60% chance of an RBA rate hike was priced in for May, the conversation has now shifted entirely. The Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate at 4.35% for several months, and market pricing now suggests the next move is more likely to be a cut late this year or in early 2027. This removes a key pillar of support that the Aussie dollar had twelve months ago.

The inflation dynamic has also changed significantly since we were looking at the March 2025 US CPI data with anticipation. While Australian inflation remains stubborn, recently tracking at a 3.6% annual rate, US inflation has cooled more effectively, with the latest figures showing a 2.9% annual increase. This divergence justifies the Federal Reserve’s patient stance and the RBA’s prolonged pause, weighing on the AUD/USD pair.

Given this backdrop, selling strength in the Aussie dollar appears to be the prudent approach for the coming weeks. With the RBA on hold and the AUD’s sensitivity to global risk, we see limited upside potential compared to this time last year. Selling AUD/USD call option spreads could be an effective strategy to generate income while defining risk, capitalizing on the view that the pair will struggle to rally past key resistance levels.

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BNY strategist Geoff Yu says EUR positioning has shifted from a pre-conflict “hedge the Dollar” trade to being net underheld. He adds that, if a ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, foreign exchange flows may revert towards averages after “extreme” moves since the conflict began.

He describes outflows from emerging market currencies under balance of payments pressure and developed market currencies linked to stagflation. He contrasts this with support for energy- and commodity-linked currencies where policy tightening is more feasible.

Yu contrasts the Eurozone, where energy costs are feeding stagflation worries, with Norway, where he expects a strongly positive terms-of-trade shock. He notes Norges Bank has largely pre-committed to a hike and describes it as the only developed central bank in Europe to do so.

He says the unwind of the prior “hedge the dollar” theme is now complete, leaving the euro net underheld on an aggregate basis. He attributes this to reduced forward EUR buying for hedging, despite rate expectations moving in a direction that would usually encourage more hedging.

For Norway, he says NOK strength could pause if energy prices peak. He adds that if receipts cover government financing needs, Norges Bank may resume FX purchases, while NOK holdings remain the strongest among European currencies.

We are seeing a familiar pattern where the Euro is net underheld, similar to the period after the conflict began in 2022. Renewed concerns about Eurozone stagflation have made the currency highly sensitive to any good news. This extensive negative positioning means the threshold for a sharp upward reversal is now significantly lower.

The latest data supports this view, with Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP coming in at a sluggish 0.2% even as March inflation cooled to just 2.1%. In response, the European Central Bank cut its key rate to 3.75% last month, widening the policy gap with the US. Data from the most recent Commitment of Traders report shows speculative net short positions on the Euro are at their highest level in over a year.

At the other end, the Norwegian Krone has been a beneficiary of persistently high energy prices, with Brent crude holding above $95 per barrel. This has allowed Norges Bank to maintain a hawkish stance with an interest rate of 4.75%, attracting significant capital inflows. The NOK remains one of the most crowded long positions in the G10 currency space.

However, we believe the NOK’s run may be losing steam as these long holdings appear stretched. If energy prices show any sign of peaking, or if government oil receipts become large enough for Norges Bank to resume selling Krone for its foreign currency reserves, the rally could stall. This creates a clear risk for those holding long NOK positions.

For derivative traders, this setup suggests that out-of-the-money call options on the EUR/USD are attractively priced for a potential snap-back rally. Given how underheld the Euro is, any positive catalyst could trigger a rapid unwinding of short positions. The low cost of these options provides an asymmetric bet on improving European sentiment.

Conversely, it may be prudent to hedge long NOK exposure or consider buying puts on the currency. The crowded positioning makes it vulnerable to a sharp correction on any negative news for the energy sector. This offers a way to protect gains from the recent rally while staying positioned for further, albeit slowing, upside.

EUR/JPY rebounded after small losses the previous day and traded near 185.30 during European hours on Thursday. On the daily chart, the pair is moving higher within an ascending channel.

The pair remains above the nine-day and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The Relative Strength Index is 61.38, suggesting upward momentum that is not yet overextended.

Key Resistance Levels

Immediate resistance sits near the top of the channel around 185.70. A break above the channel could lead towards the all-time high of 186.88, set on 23 January.

Initial support is at the nine-day EMA of 184.52. A drop below that level could bring the 50-day EMA at 183.64 into view, followed by the channel’s lower boundary near 183.00.

The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool.

Based on the current technical setup, we believe the bullish trend in EUR/JPY is set to continue. The pair is trading firmly within its ascending channel, and with the RSI showing strength but not yet being overbought, there appears to be more room for upward movement. This technical picture is supported by fundamental data, as Eurozone core inflation for March 2026 came in at 2.7%, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to maintain its restrictive stance.

Options Trade Ideas

For the coming weeks, we see an opportunity in buying call options with strike prices just above the immediate 185.70 resistance. Selecting expiries in late May or June 2026 would give the trade enough time to potentially test the all-time high of 186.88 reached earlier this year. Given that implied volatility in the pair has remained relatively subdued, the cost of entry for these options is attractive.

Alternatively, traders comfortable with selling premium could consider bull put spreads. We would look to sell puts with a strike below the channel’s lower boundary around 183.00, while buying a lower strike put for protection. This strategy allows us to collect income while betting that the pair will not suffer a significant breakdown in the near term.

Looking back, we recall how the Bank of Japan’s first steps toward policy normalization in 2024 and 2025 ultimately did little to halt the yen’s weakness, a theme that persists today. However, we must use the nine-day EMA at 184.52 as a key risk marker. A confirmed break below this level would be the first sign that the bullish momentum is fading, signaling a need to reduce long exposure.

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USD/CAD traded slightly higher near 1.3850 in Thursday’s European session, after three days of declines. The move came as the US Dollar firmed amid doubts about the US-Iran ceasefire announced early Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.1% near 99.10. Market attention turned to reports of ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon, and claims by Iran’s parliament speaker and negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf that the US breached three clauses of a 10-point proposal.

Ceasefire Doubts Lift The Dollar

Iran said it would send a team to Pakistan late Thursday for a first round of talks with the US. Canada’s employment data for March is due on Friday.

Technically, USD/CAD stayed above the 20-day EMA at 1.3827. The RSI was around 57, with support at 1.3827, then 1.3750, and a potential retest area near 1.3950.

Statistics Canada’s Net Change in Employment measures the change in the number of employed people. Market pricing often links stronger readings with a firmer Canadian Dollar, while weaker readings can weigh on it.

With USD/CAD holding near 1.3850, we see the market caught between two major forces. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace talks is propping up the US dollar as a safe haven. However, tomorrow’s Canadian employment data could dramatically shift momentum and strengthen the loonie.

Options Strategies For Rising Volatility

We are positioning for a significant move following Friday’s jobs report. We remember the market’s reaction in early 2025 when employment unexpectedly surged by over 100,000 jobs, causing a sharp rally in the Canadian dollar. With economists forecasting a modest gain of just 18,000 for March, any number significantly higher could send USD/CAD tumbling towards the 1.3750 support level.

Conversely, the geopolitical situation remains a primary driver for US dollar strength. If these negotiations in Pakistan falter, we expect a flight to safety that could easily push USD/CAD to retest the recent highs around 1.3950. We saw this pattern clearly in 2025 during the Strait of Hormuz tensions, when the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped over 1.5% in a single week.

The price of WTI crude oil, currently trading around $86 a barrel, adds another layer of complexity. An escalation in the Middle East would likely push oil prices higher, which typically supports the Canadian dollar. This creates a conflicting signal where the safe-haven demand for USD competes directly with CAD strength from higher oil prices.

Given this setup, we are looking at options to trade the expected rise in volatility. Buying USD/CAD call options with a strike price above 1.3900 would be a straightforward way to profit from a breakdown in the ceasefire talks. Alternatively, put options with a strike below 1.3800 offer a way to capitalize on a surprisingly strong Canadian jobs report.

For those anticipating a sharp move but uncertain of the direction, a long straddle strategy is advisable. This involves buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price, positioning to profit from a significant price swing either way. Implied volatility on USD/CAD options has already ticked up 4% this week, suggesting the market is bracing for impact.

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