The Average True Range (ATR) is an essential tool for measuring market volatility. In this article, we’ll explain what ATR is, how to calculate it, and how it can enhance your trading strategies. We’ll also discuss its benefits, limitations, and how to use it alongside other indicators for effective risk management.

What Is the Average True Range (ATR) Indicator?

The Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a widely used technical analysis tool that measures market volatility. Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the ATR calculates the average range between the high and low prices of an asset over a specific period. Unlike other indicators that focus on price trends, the ATR is unique in that it measures the degree of price movement, helping traders understand how volatile a market is. The ATR is a valuable tool for traders across various financial markets, including forex, stocks, indices, and precious metals, due to its versatility in assessing and managing volatility.

ATR is crucial for managing risk, as it allows traders to adjust their strategies according to market conditions. In addition, ATR helps traders assess volatility levels in different market conditions, enabling them to adapt their risk management and trading strategies accordingly. For example, higher ATR values indicate increased volatility, while lower ATR values signal more stable market conditions.

How to Calculate the Average True Range (ATR) Indicator?

The ATR is calculated using the following formula and relies on historical data to measure volatility. To calculate the ATR indicator, follow these steps:

Step 1: Calculate the True Range (TR) for Each Day

The True Range (TR) for a specific day is the greatest of the following three absolute values:

1. TR = High – Low

The absolute value of the difference between the current high and the current low for the day.

2. TR = |High – Previous Close|

The absolute value of the difference between the current high and yesterday’s closing price.

3. TR = |Low – Previous Close|

The absolute value of the difference between the current low and yesterday’s closing price.

Where:

• High = The highest price of the asset during the period,
• Low = The lowest price of the asset during the period,
• Previous Close = The closing price from the previous trading session.

You always take the highest value from these three calculations as the True Range (TR) for the day. These individual true ranges are then used to calculate the ATR.

Step 2: Calculate the ATR for the First 14 Days

Once you have the True Range (TR) for each day, calculate the first ATR value by averaging the TR values over the specified period, which is typically a 14-day time period (but this can be adjusted based on your trading strategy).

For the first 14 days, you simply calculate the average of the True Range (TR) for each of those 14 days to obtain the first ATR value.

The formula is:

ATR = (1 / N) * Σ(TRi)

Where:

• ATR = The Average True Range,
• N = The number of periods (typically 14),
• TRi = The True Range for each period.

Step 3: Calculate the ATR for Subsequent Days (Day 15 and Beyond)

Once the ATR for the first 14 days is calculated, the ATR for subsequent days is smoothed using the previous period’s ATR value and the current period’s True Range (TR).

The formula for smoothing is:

ATR (Day 15) = [(ATR (Day 14) * 13) + TR (Day 15)] / 14

This formula combines the previous period’s ATR value (13 parts) and the new True Range (TR) for the current period (Day 15) to calculate the new ATR. The resulting figure is the average true range value for the current period, reflecting updated market volatility.

Example Calculation of Average True Range (ATR):

Let’s walk through an example using the stock price of XYZ and demonstrate how to calculate the trading range for ATR.

Step 1: Calculate the True Range (TR) for Each Day

Day 1:

• High = $54.50, Low = $52.90, Previous Close = $53.80
• TR (H – L) = $54.50 – $52.90 = $1.60
• TR (|H – Cp|) = |$54.50 – $53.80| = $0.70
• TR (|L – Cp|) = |$52.90 – $53.80| = $0.90

The highest value is $1.60, so TR for Day 1 = $1.60.

Day 2:

• High = $55.10, Low = $53.00, Previous Close = $54.50
• TR (H – L) = $55.10 – $53.00 = $2.10
• TR (|H – Cp|) = |$55.10 – $54.50| = $0.60
• TR (|L – Cp|) = |$53.00 – $54.50| = $1.50

The highest value is $2.10, so TR for Day 2 = $2.10.

Day 3:

• High = $56.00, Low = $54.20, Previous Close = $55.10
• TR (H – L) = $56.00 – $54.20 = $1.80
• TR (|H – Cp|) = |$56.00 – $55.10| = $0.90
• TR (|L – Cp|) = |$54.20 – $55.10| = $0.90

The highest value is $1.80, so TR for Day 3 = $1.80.

Step 2: Calculate the ATR for the First 14 Days

Let’s assume the True Range (TR) values for the first 14 days are:

TR values for Days 1 to 14:

$1.60, $2.10, $1.80, $1.50, $1.70, $2.00, $1.80, $2.20, $2.00, $1.90, $1.70, $1.60, $2.10, $1.80

Now, calculate the ATR for the first 14 days:

ATR = (1 / 14) * Σ(TRi)

ATR = (1 / 14) * (1.60 + 2.10 + 1.80 + 1.50 + 1.70 + 2.00 + 1.80 + 2.20 + 2.00 + 1.90 + 1.70 + 1.60 + 2.10 + 1.80)

ATR = (1 / 14) * 24.70

ATR = 24.70 / 14

ATR = 1.76

So, the ATR for the first 14 days is $1.76.

Step 3: Calculate the ATR for Day 15 (Smoothing Formula)

For Day 15, assume the True Range (TR) is $1.90.

ATR (Day 15) = [(ATR (Day 14) * 13) + TR (Day 15)] / 14

ATR (Day 15) = [(1.76 * 13) + 1.90] / 14

ATR (Day 15) = (22.88 + 1.90) / 14

ATR (Day 15) = 24.78 / 14

ATR (Day 15) = 1.77

So, the ATR for the day 15 days is $1.77.

How to Use the ATR Indicator in Trading

The ATR indicator is primarily used for volatility analysis and risk management. Traders use it to determine:

• Stop-Loss Placement: ATR helps in setting stop-loss orders by adjusting them according to market volatility. For instance, in a high-volatility market (when ATR is high), traders might set wider stop-loss levels, whereas in a low-volatility market (when ATR is low), tighter stop-loss levels are used.
• Trade Size and Position Sizing: ATR can help traders decide how much of a position to take based on market volatility. In highly volatile markets, traders may reduce their position sizes to minimize risk.
• Market Trend Confirmation: While ATR doesn’t predict the direction of the trend, it can confirm whether a trend is strong. If the ATR increases as a trend continues, it may indicate that the trend is likely to persist.

Example of Using the ATR Indicator in Different Markets

Let’s look at how the ATR indicator is used in different markets:

1. Forex Trading

In the forex market, ATR can help traders understand the volatility of different currency pairs. For example, if you’re trading major currency pairs like EUR/USD and notice that the ATR is relatively high, you may want to widen your stop-loss to account for the increased market movement.

Discover the 8 most traded currency pairs in the world.

2. Stock Market

For stock traders, ATR is particularly useful during earnings seasons or news events when volatility tends to spike. If a stock like Tesla has a high ATR, traders may adjust their trade sizes to accommodate potential price swings following earnings reports.

Discover the 10 largest stock exchanges in the world by market cap.

3. Commodities Market

In markets like oil trading (WTI or Brent Crude), ATR is used to manage risk during geopolitical tensions or OPEC announcements. For instance, when ATR values are high in the oil market, traders may increase their stop-loss distance or use smaller position sizes to reduce risk exposure.

Discover the most traded commodities globally.

Advantages of the ATR Indicator

The average true range indicator (ATR) is a widely used technical indicator that offers a range of benefits to help traders make more informed decisions. Here’s a closer look at its key advantages:

• Measures Market Volatility: ATR offers a straightforward way to gauge market volatility, helping traders understand price fluctuations.
• Risk Management: It assists traders in setting stop-loss orders and position sizes that are in line with current market conditions.
• Flexible and Versatile: ATR can be applied across different asset classes, such as stocks, forex, and commodities, making it useful for a wide range of trading strategies.
• Objective Measure: Unlike other indicators that are based on price direction, ATR is purely based on price movement, making it less subjective.

Disadvantages of the ATR Indicator

While the ATR provides valuable insights, it also has some limitations. Here’s a closer look at its key disadvantages:

• Does Not Indicate Market Direction: ATR only measures volatility, not whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
• Lagging Indicator: Since ATR is calculated using historical price data, it can be delayed in fast-moving markets.
• Not a Standalone Indicator: ATR should be used alongside other indicators, such as trend-following or momentum indicators, to confirm trading decisions.

Integrating ATR Indicators with Other Indicators

To maximize the effectiveness of the ATR indicator, traders often combine it with other technical tools. For instance:

• Moving Averages: Traders can combine ATR with moving averages to understand both the trend and volatility. For example, a 50-period moving average can help identify the trend, while ATR can assess the strength or weakness of the trend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI can help determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold, while ATR can provide insight into how volatile the asset is during these conditions.
• Bollinger Bands: By combining ATR with Bollinger Bands, traders can identify whether the market is experiencing a breakout or simply expanding volatility within a range.

In Summary

The Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a vital tool for assessing market volatility. It helps traders in managing risk, determining appropriate stop-loss levels, and adjusting position sizes according to market conditions. Although the ATR doesn’t predict market direction, it offers significant value when used in conjunction with other technical indicators.

Start Trading the ATR Indicator with VT Markets

At VT Markets, we offer a range of tools and resources to help you incorporate the ATR indicator into your trading strategies. Use platforms like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) to seamlessly integrate the ATR into your analysis. Additionally, our Help Centre is available to support you at every step, and you can practice risk management with our VT Markets demo account. Take advantage of our competitive spreads to enhance your trading experience. 

Start trading today with VT Markets and use the ATR to improve your risk management and trading decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What does ATR stand for?

ATR stands for Average True Range, a volatility indicator that measures the degree of price movement in an asset over a specific period, helping traders assess market volatility.

2. What is a good ATR value for setting stop losses?

A good ATR value for setting stop losses depends on the volatility of the asset you’re trading. Higher ATR values suggest larger price swings, so you might want to use a wider stop-loss.

3. Can ATR be used for day trading?

Yes, ATR can be particularly useful for day traders to adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels based on intraday volatility.

4. How do I adjust ATR settings for different timeframes?

When trading on shorter timeframes, such as 5-minute charts, use a shorter ATR period (e.g., 5 or 7 periods). For longer timeframes, like daily charts, a 14-period ATR is typically used.

5. How does the ATR help with risk management?

ATR helps traders gauge market volatility, allowing them to set more appropriate stop-loss orders, adjust position sizes, and better manage risk in volatile market conditions.

6. Is the ATR indicator useful for trending markets?

Yes, the ATR can be useful in trending markets by helping traders assess whether volatility is increasing or decreasing, which can indicate whether a trend is strengthening or weakening.

7. Can ATR be used with other technical indicators?

Yes, ATR is often used in conjunction with other technical indicators like Moving Averages or RSI (Relative Strength Index) to confirm entry and exit points, ensuring a more balanced strategy.

8. Does ATR indicate price direction?

No, ATR is a volatility indicator and does not indicate price direction. It simply measures the degree of price movement, not whether the price is moving up or down.

9. Can I use ATR for all asset classes?

Yes, ATR can be used across a variety of asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, to measure volatility in different markets.

10. What is the difference between ATR and Bollinger Bands?

While both are volatility indicators, ATR measures the range of price movement, while Bollinger Bands show price volatility relative to a moving average, indicating potential overbought or oversold conditions.

The cryptocurrency world is buzzing with excitement, and for good reason! On 17 July 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill to regulate stablecoins – digital currencies pegged to stable assets like the US dollar.

With Senate approval already secured, this bill is set to be signed into law by President Trump, marking a historic step for crypto in the US. For traders, this development is a golden opportunity to explore new trading strategies.

What are stablecoins and why should you care?

Stablecoins, such as USDC or USDT, are cryptocurrencies designed to hold a steady value, typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Unlike volatile coins like Bitcoin, stablecoins are ideal for traders who want to move funds quickly, make cross-border payments, or park money safely during market dips.

For example, imagine you’re trading Bitcoin and spot a price drop. By converting to USDC, you can lock in your funds’ value without exiting the crypto market entirely.

Until now, the lack of clear US regulations made some traders wary of stablecoins, fearing scams or mismanagement. The GENIUS Act changes this by:

• Requiring issuers to hold liquid reserves (like cash or US Treasuries) to back every coin.
• Mandating monthly transparency reports to prove reserves are secure.
• Enforcing anti-money-laundering rules to prevent fraud.

This clarity is sparking optimism, with experts predicting the stablecoin market could grow from $265 billion to over $2 trillion by 2030. This means more trading opportunities across crypto, forex, and even stocks.

Why stablecoin regulation is a big deal for markets

The GENIUS Act is already shaking up financial markets. Here’s what’s happening.

Crypto market surge: The bill has boosted investor confidence, with Ether ETFs seeing record inflows of $2.18 billion this week, outpacing Bitcoin ETFs. Stablecoins’ newfound legitimacy could drive more trading volume in pairs like BTC/USDC.

Mainstream adoption: Major banks like JPMorgan Chase are launching stablecoin-like tokens (e.g., JPMD), while PNC Bank’s partnership with Coinbase allows clients to trade crypto directly. This signals traditional finance embracing digital currencies.

Potential volatility: Some traders worry about restrictions, such as bans on yield-bearing stablecoins or limits on tech giants issuing coins. This could cause short-term price swings in crypto pairs like ETH/USD.

For example, after the bill’s passage, Coinbase’s stock (COIN) jumped 5% in a single day, reflecting investor excitement. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), as stablecoin demand could increase USD-backed asset purchases. These movements create opportunities for traders to trade smarter.

Practical trading strategies

As a trader, you can use VT Markets’ platform to navigate this stablecoin-driven market boom. Here’s how the regulation impacts key asset classes and what you can do:

1. Cryptocurrency trading

Opportunity: With stablecoins now safer and more trusted, trading volumes for pairs like BTC/USDC or ETH/USDT are likely to rise. Higher liquidity means tighter spreads, making it easier to enter and exit trades profitably. For instance, if Bitcoin’s price surges from $70,000 to $75,000, you could use VT Markets’ CFDs to go long on BTC/USDC, capturing the gain without owning the asset.

Risk: Restrictions in the GENIUS Act, like requiring stablecoin issuers to have freeze functions, could spark short-term uncertainty for smaller coins. If Tether (USDT) faces scrutiny over its reserves, its price might dip temporarily.

Action: Use VT Markets’ crypto CFDs to trade major pairs like BTC/USD or ETH/USDC. Check the platform’s real-time charts for breakout patterns. Start with a small position size, like 0.01 lots, to test your strategy.

2. Forex trading

Opportunity: The stablecoin boom could strengthen the US dollar, as more investors buy USD-backed stablecoins. This might lift pairs like USD/JPY or USD/CAD. For example, USD/JPY rose from 145.50 to 146.20 this week, partly due to crypto optimism and a US-Japan trade deal.

Risk: If foreign stablecoins (e.g., USDT, issued from Hong Kong) face regulatory hurdles, currencies like the Chinese yuan could weaken, affecting pairs like USD/CNY.

Action: Monitor USD-based pairs on VT Markets’ forex platform. Use technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to spot overbought or oversold conditions. For instance, if USD/JPY’s RSI exceeds 70, it might signal a pullback, offering a shorting opportunity.

3. Stocks and fintech

Opportunity: Fintech firms like Coinbase benefit directly from stablecoin growth. Coinbase’s stock soared 400% since June, driven by crypto adoption. Other blockchain-related companies could follow suit as stablecoins go mainstream.

Risk: Weak oversight could lead to risks if a major stablecoin issuer mismanages reserves, potentially impacting broader markets, including fintech stocks.

Action: Explore stock CFDs on VT Markets for firms like Coinbase (COIN) or banks entering crypto, like JPMorgan. Use the platform’s news feed to track earnings reports, as strong results could signal bullish trends.

Five tips to trade the stablecoin boom

Stay informed: Follow VT Markets’ Insights for updates on the GENIUS Act’s rollout. Key dates, like the bill’s effective date (18 months after signing or 120 days after regulations), could trigger price moves.

Use technical analysis: Leverage charting tools to identify trends. For example, if ETH/USDC forms a “double bottom” pattern near $3,500, it might signal a buying opportunity.

Manage risk: Set stop-loss orders to limit losses, especially with crypto’s volatility. For instance, place a stop-loss 2% below your entry on BTC/USD to cap downside risk.

Start with a demo account: If you’re new to crypto or forex, use VT Markets’ demo account to practice trading without risking real money. Try a mock trade on ETH/USDT to build confidence.

Diversify: Spread your trades across crypto, forex, and stock CFDs. For example, combine a long position on BTC/USDC with a USD/JPY trade to balance risk.

Conclusion

The US stablecoin regulation is a landmark moment, making crypto safer and more accessible for traders like you. With the GENIUS Act set to transform the $265 billion stablecoin market, VT Markets clients have a unique chance to trade crypto, forex, and stocks with confidence.

By staying informed, using powerful tools, and managing risk, you can turn this regulatory shift into profitable opportunities. Ready to seize the moment? Open a live account with VT Markets today and start trading the future of finance!

The Ichimoku Cloud is more than just a colorful overlay on a trading chart — it’s a powerful all-in-one technical indicator designed to help traders make better decisions. Whether you’re trading forex, stocks, or precious metals, understanding how to interpret the Ichimoku Cloud can give you an edge in timing entries and exits more effectively. This guide explains how the Ichimoku Cloud works, its core components, and how to use it effectively in your trading strategy.

What Is the Ichimoku Cloud?

The Ichimoku Cloud, also called Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō, is a powerful technical indicator that provides a complete view of trend direction, momentum, and key price levels—all in one chart. Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō translates to “one look equilibrium chart” or “instant look at the balance chart,” highlighting its purpose as a quick visual tool for traders. It was developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the 1930s and released to the public in the 1960s, with the aim of helping traders make quicker and more informed decisions.

Unlike many indicators that only offer lagging signals, the Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive indicator and equilibrium chart that provides a holistic view of market conditions, including support and resistance levels, trend direction, and trading signals. The Ichimoku Cloud combines five key calculations to generate dynamic, real-time insights. Today, it’s widely used across forex, stock, and crypto markets to assess market conditions at a glance.

How Does the Ichimoku Cloud Work?

The Ichimoku Cloud works by calculating five data points that help traders quickly assess whether the market is trending or ranging. These components are plotted as lines on a price chart, and two of them form a shaded area called the “cloud” or Kumo, which represents dynamic support and resistance. Ichimoku Clouds are plotted directly on the price chart, allowing traders to visualize trends, support, and resistance levels.

The Ichimoku Cloud consists of five lines, each playing a crucial role in technical analysis. These five lines generate trading signals and help traders identify the prevailing market trend by analyzing their interactions and positions relative to the price.

When prices are above the cloud, the market is considered to be in an uptrend. When prices are below the cloud, the market is in a downtrend. The thickness of the cloud can also indicate the strength of support or resistance zones.

Example: 

Suppose a trader is analyzing the major currency pair EUR/USD. If the price breaks above a thick cloud and both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are pointing upwards, the trader might consider entering a long position, expecting a strong bullish trend.

The 5 Key Components of the Ichimoku Cloud

The Ichimoku Cloud is composed of five plotted lines, each serving a specific role in identifying market trends, momentum, and support/resistance levels. Understanding what each line represents and how it is calculated is key to using the indicator effectively.

1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line)

The Tenkan-sen, often represented as a blue line on the chart, is calculated as follows:

Tenkan-sen = (Highest high over the last 9 periods + Lowest low over the last 9 periods) / 2

The Tenkan-sen is a short-term trend indicator, calculated using the highest high and lowest low over the past nine periods. It acts as a signal line and gauges momentum by reacting quickly to price changes. The Tenkan-sen can also act as a minor support/resistance level.

2. Kijun-sen (Base Line)

Kijun-sen = (Highest high over the last 26 periods + Lowest low over the last 26 periods) / 2

The Kijun-sen is considered a medium-term trend indicator, calculated as the midpoint of the highest high and lowest low over 26 periods. It is also known as the confirmation line, providing key support and resistance levels and signaling future trend direction within the Ichimoku cloud system. The Kijun-sen is typically used to confirm signals from the Tenkan-sen and often serves as a major support or resistance line.

3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A)

Senkou Span A = (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2 

(plotted 26 periods ahead)

This line forms the first boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and shows the average of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. Together with Senkou Span B, it forms the cloud, often referred to as ‘A and Senkou Span’. The position of Senkou Span A relative to Senkou Span B can indicate a bottom-up direction in trend analysis, helping traders assess the strength and direction of the trend. Senkou Span A is plotted 26 periods ahead, which helps project future support levels and gives a forward-looking view of potential support and resistance zones.

4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B)

Senkou Span B = (Highest high over the last 52 periods + Lowest low over the last 52 periods) / 2 

(plotted 26 periods ahead)

This line creates the second boundary of the cloud and represents longer-term market sentiment. When combined with Span A, it forms the shaded area called the Kumo (cloud). When Senkou Span A and B exchange positions, known as a Kumo Twist, it can signal potential trend reversals, as this exchange position event often marks a shift in market momentum. Additionally, a thinner cloud indicates weaker support or resistance, while a thicker cloud suggests stronger support or resistance zones.

5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span)

Chikou Span = Today’s closing price (current closing price)

(plotted 26 periods back as a green line)

The Chikou Span is a lagging indicator used to confirm trends. It is plotted as a green line representing the current closing price shifted 26 periods back on the chart. When the Chikou Span crosses above the price (chikou span crosses), it can generate a buy signal, while a cross below the price can generate a sell signal. This helps identify trend direction, potential reversals, and provides support and resistance levels based on historical price action. The Chikou Span also helps validate buy or sell signals generated by the other components.

How to Interpret Ichimoku Cloud

Understanding how to interpret Ichimoku Cloud correctly is essential for making informed trading decisions. The indicator works by combining signals from five different components, each offering a unique view of market conditions.

Key Interpretation Guidelines:

Bullish Signal:

• Price is above the cloud (Kumo), which is formed by Senkou Span A (the faster-moving leading span) and Senkou Span B (the slower-moving leading span).
• Senkou Span A is above Span B, indicating upward momentum.
• Tenkan-sen (short-term average) crosses Kijun-sen (medium-term average) from below, confirming a potential entry point.
• Chikou Span (lagging line) is above the price, reinforcing the bullish trend.

Bearish Signal:

• Price is below the cloud.
• Senkou Span A is below Span B, suggesting downward momentum.
• Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen, which can be seen as a bearish entry signal.
• Chikou Span is below the price, supporting the bearish direction.

Neutral/Consolidation Signal:

• Price is inside the cloud, which indicates indecision or a ranging market.
• Best to wait for a clear breakout above or below the cloud before taking a position.

Example: 

On a 4-hour chart of USD/JPY, suppose the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen while the price is breaking above the cloud. If the Chikou Span is also positioned above the price action from 26 periods ago, this alignment confirms a strong bullish trend, giving a trader confidence to go long.

How to Use the Ichimoku Cloud in Trading

The Ichimoku Cloud is more than just a trend indicator. When properly understood, it can guide traders through every stage of a trade. Traders can apply the Ichimoku Cloud in several ways:

1. Trend Identification

The Ichimoku Cloud excels at helping traders instantly recognize whether the market is trending or consolidating.

• Bullish Trend: Price is above the cloud; the cloud is thick and rising.
• Bearish Trend: Price is below the cloud; the cloud is sloping downward.
• Sideways/No Trend: Price is inside the cloud; the cloud is flat or narrowing.

Example:

In a trending EUR/USD daily chart, when the price breaks and stays above the cloud while Senkou Span A is above Senkou Span B, the pair is considered to be in a strong bullish trend. A trader might look for long entries on minor pullbacks during this phase.

2. Dynamic Support and Resistance

The Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) acts as a real-time, dynamic support or resistance zone.

• When the price is above the cloud, the top and bottom edges of the cloud act as support levels.
• When the price is below, the cloud becomes a resistance zone.
• The thickness of the cloud suggests the strength of that zone—thicker clouds mean stronger support/resistance.

Example:

In the Tesla (TSLA) 4-hour chart, the price may pull back toward the top of the cloud during an uptrend. If it bounces off the cloud and continues upward, this can signal a strong support zone and a buying opportunity.

3. Entry and Exit Points

The Ichimoku system provides clear entry signals and assists with risk and exit management.

Entry Signals:

• Bullish Entry: When the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen, and the price is above the cloud.
• Bearish Entry: When the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen, and the price is below the cloud.
• Cloud Breakout: When the price breaks through the cloud in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Stop-Loss and Exit:

• Use Kijun-sen: In many cases, a flat Kijun-sen can be used as a dynamic stop-loss.
• Cloud Boundary: Exiting the trade when the price closes back inside or below the cloud can protect profits.

Example:

On a 1-day chart of XAU/USD, a trader might enter a long position when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen and price breaks decisively above the cloud. A stop-loss could be placed just below the Kijun-sen or beneath the lower cloud boundary, depending on recent price volatility.

4. Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Using the Ichimoku Cloud across multiple timeframes helps validate signals and avoid false entries.

• Higher timeframe (e.g., daily): Use to confirm the overall trend.
• Lower timeframe (e.g., 1-hour or 15-minute): Use for precise entry and exit timing within that larger trend.

Example:

On the AUD/JPY daily chart, the price is trending below the cloud with Senkou Span A under Span B. On the 4-hour chart, a bearish Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen crossover occurs below the cloud, confirming a short setup aligned with the higher timeframe trend.

Ichimoku Cloud vs. Other Indicators

While most technical indicators serve a single purpose, the Ichimoku Cloud offers a more comprehensive view. The table below shows how it compares:

1. Ichimoku Cloud

Unlike RSI or MACD, the Ichimoku Cloud provides predictive support and resistance through the cloud (Kumo), which is projected 26 periods ahead. It combines trend, momentum, and S/R levels in one visual system, making it a more all-in-one solution.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It identifies overbought or oversold conditions, but doesn’t indicate trend direction or provide any future price levels. It reacts to price—making it reactive, not predictive.

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD shows the relationship between two EMAs and is used to identify trend reversals and momentum shifts. It is useful for spotting divergence or crossovers, but unlike the Ichimoku Cloud, it does not offer forward-looking support or resistance.

4. Moving Averages (MA)

Moving averages (e.g., SMA or EMA) smooth out price data to show trend direction. They can act as dynamic support or resistance, but only based on historical price, which makes them lagging indicators. Unlike the Ichimoku Cloud, they don’t measure momentum or project future price levels.

Learn the differences between SMA and EMA.

Risks and Limitations of the Ichimoku Cloud

Despite its strengths, there are limitations to consider:

• Complexity: Beginners may find the multiple lines overwhelming.
• Less Effective in Ranging Markets: Can produce false signals in sideways conditions.
• Not Always Suitable for Short Timeframes: It performs better on higher timeframes like daily or 4-hour charts.

Tip: 

Combining Ichimoku with other technical indicators can help validate signals and enhance accuracy.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Using the Ichimoku Cloud

Although the Ichimoku Cloud is a powerful tool, it is often misused due to common misunderstandings or improper application in various market conditions. Below are the common mistakes to avoid:

• Ignoring the Lagging Span: Many traders overlook the Chikou Span, which plays a key role in trend confirmation.
• Using Very Short Timeframes: Increased noise leads to unreliable signals.
• Failing to Combine with Price Action: Relying solely on Ichimoku without context can be risky.
• Changing Default Settings Too Early: The original settings (9, 26, 52) were optimized over 30 years of testing and work well on most instruments.
• Entering Before the Cloud Breakout Confirms: Jumping in too early without a clear breakout from the cloud increases the risk of false trends.
• Ignoring Market Conditions: Using Ichimoku during low-volatility or range-bound markets can reduce its effectiveness, as it’s designed for trending environments.

In Summary

The Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive technical indicator that combines trend direction, momentum, and support/resistance into a single system. Its five components work together to help traders identify potential entries, exits, and overall market direction. Compared to traditional indicators like RSI and MACD, Ichimoku provides a more forward-looking perspective but requires careful interpretation. To use it effectively, traders should avoid common mistakes, tailor the settings to their market, and combine it with other tools to validate signals and improve accuracy.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is the Ichimoku Cloud?

The Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive technical indicator that helps traders identify trends, momentum, and support/resistance levels. It consists of five components and provides a complete view of market conditions at a glance.

2. How do you read the Ichimoku Cloud?

Price above the cloud indicates a bullish trend; below means bearish. The position and direction of the Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, and Chikou Span further refine the interpretation.

3. Can beginners use the Ichimoku Cloud?

Yes, but beginners should start with basic interpretations and use them alongside other tools or educational resources.

4. What timeframe works best with the Ichimoku Cloud?

The Ichimoku Cloud can be used on any timeframe, but it generally performs best on higher timeframes like the 1-hour, 4-hour, or daily charts for clearer trend signals.

5. Can I use Ichimoku Cloud for scalping or day trading?

Yes, but it requires quick decision-making and clean setups. Some traders adjust the settings to suit shorter timeframes, but confirmation with other indicators is recommended.

6. How does the Ichimoku Cloud compare to moving averages?

While moving averages only show trend direction, the Ichimoku Cloud offers a fuller picture, including momentum and projected support/resistance zones.

7. Is the Ichimoku Cloud a lagging or leading indicator?

It’s both. Elements like the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are lagging, while the cloud’s projection (Senkou Span A and B) provides forward-looking insight.

8. Can I use the Ichimoku Cloud alone?

Technically, yes, since it’s a complete system, but many traders improve accuracy by combining it with volume indicators, RSI, or price action techniques.

The US dollar is beginning to recover as easing trade tensions and fresh international agreements restore some market confidence. While the rebound is still cautious, improving sentiment and policy clarity are helping to stabilise the currency.

US dollar finds support as new Japan trade deal eases tensions

The US dollar is showing early signs of recovery following a newly signed trade agreement between President Trump and Japan.

The deal features a 15% tariff on Japanese imports – significantly lower than the 25% previously floated in a letter earlier this week.

This softer stance has provided some relief across the currency markets, pushing the US Dollar Index (USDX) up by 0.1% to 97.488 at the time of writing.

The agreement paves the way for further capital inflows, with Japan committing to inject $550 billion into the US economy – offering longer-term support for the greenback, especially in today’s climate of ongoing global uncertainty.

Additional trade negotiations are also progressing, including revised terms with the Philippines and an emerging deal with Indonesia.

Technical analysis

The US Dollar Index saw an intraday decline before stabilising at 97.009, a level where buying interest began to emerge.

Short-term price movements on the 15-minute chart show a modest, sideways recovery in progress, though upward momentum remains limited.

Picture: USDX tries to claw its way back above 97, as seen on the VT Markets app.

While the MACD has crossed above its signal line, the flat histogram and low trading volume indicate a weak recovery rather than a solid bullish reversal.

Moving averages are starting to align, with price attempting to regain the 97.15 region – currently facing resistance from the 30-period moving average.

For bulls to gain control, a clear break above the 97.27 level is needed to shift the short-term structure towards a bullish bias. Until then, caution prevails.

Fed credibility back in focus amid Powell debate

Despite a cooling in trade-related headlines, political discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve continue to stir the markets.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that Jerome Powell should remain as Fed Chair, despite earlier calls to review the central bank’s role and actions.

These comments underscore the importance of policy stability and credibility in the forex market.

Any perceived weakening of the Fed’s authority – or a surprise dovish shift in guidance – could once again put pressure on the US dollar.

Cautious outlook for the US dollar

For now, the 97.00 support level on the US Dollar Index appears to be holding firm.

If macroeconomic conditions remain stable and political noise subsides, the USDX could edge higher, targeting the 97.50–97.60 zone.

That said, market participants should stay alert. Any flare-up in Fed-related uncertainty or renewed trade tensions could halt gains and send the index back toward support.

At present, the recovery remains tentative – offering stabilisation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a key technical indicator used to measure momentum and identify potential trend reversals. By comparing two moving averages, the MACD indicator helps traders identify key buy and sell signals. In this article, we’ll explore how to use the MACD indicator to enhance your trading strategy. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, understanding MACD can strengthen your decision-making and improve your ability to navigate the financial markets.

What is Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)?

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most popular and widely used indicators in technical analysis. It helps traders identify trend direction, potential buy and sell signals based on the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, the MACD indicator is used to gauge momentum, track price trends, and forecast price direction across various markets, including stocks, forex, and precious metals.

In essence, MACD tracks the difference between two moving averages: a short-term exponential moving average (EMA) and a long-term EMA. This gives traders insight into market trends and potential shifts in momentum.

MACD Trading Signals

The MACD indicator generates trading signals through its three key components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram. MACD crossovers and signal line crossovers are key trading signals used to measure momentum and identify potential trend reversals.

Bullish Crossover: This signal line crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, which is considered bullish. Traders typically see this as a sign that the market might be moving upward, indicating a potential buy signal and an opportunity to enter a long position.

Bearish Crossover: This signal line crossover happens when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, which is considered bearish and signals a potential sell. This suggests that downward momentum is gaining strength, and traders may want to consider shorting or exiting positions.

Divergence: Divergences occur when the price of the asset moves in the opposite direction from the MACD. Traders look for divergences between the MACD and price to spot potential reversals. A bullish divergence happens when the price makes new lows, but the MACD creates higher lows, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. Conversely, a bearish divergence occurs when the price creates higher highs, but the MACD forms lower highs, indicating a possible downward reversal.

How to Calculate MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is calculated by subtracting the 26-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) from the 12-day EMA. The result of this subtraction forms the MACD line.

Here’s a breakdown of the calculation:

• MACD Line = 12-period EMA – 26-period EMA
• Signal Line = 9-day EMA of the MACD line (calculating a moving average of the MACD line)
• Histogram = MACD Line – Signal Line

The histogram visually represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. When the bars in the histogram are above zero, it indicates that the MACD line is above the signal line. Conversely, when the bars are below zero, the MACD line is below the signal line.

How to Use the MACD

Traders often use the MACD indicator in conjunction with a price chart to identify trending markets and potential entry or exit points. The MACD helps traders identify trend direction and gauge market momentum. Here’s how to incorporate it into your trading strategy:

1. Trend Identification

The MACD line helps identify whether a market is trending or range-bound. A rising MACD line signals an uptrend, suggesting that short-term momentum is stronger than long-term momentum, while a falling MACD line suggests a downtrend, indicating weaker short-term momentum.

Example: For Gold (XAU/USD), if the MACD line rises and stays above the zero line, it confirms an uptrend, suggesting traders should consider entering or holding long positions as the price is likely to continue rising.

2. Crossovers

MACD crossovers, specifically signal line crossovers, are key signals for traders. A signal line crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses the signal line. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, this signal line crossover indicates a potential buying opportunity (bullish signal), and when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it signals a potential selling opportunity (bearish signal).

Example: Take the major currency pair EUR/USD as an example. If the MACD line crosses above the signal line (blue line crossing red line), this signal line crossover signals that momentum is shifting to the upside, prompting traders to enter long positions. If the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it could be an indication to sell or exit long positions. Signal line crossovers are among the most common signals produced by the MACD indicator.

3. Divergence

Traders often look for divergences, both bullish and bearish, between the MACD and price action as potential buy and sell signals. Divergence occurs when the MACD moves in the opposite direction to price action. Bullish divergence happens when the price forms new lows while the MACD forms higher lows, suggesting a possible upward reversal. Bearish divergence occurs when the price forms new highs but the MACD forms lower highs, signaling a possible downward reversal.

Example: For Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock, if the price reaches new highs but the MACD forms lower highs, it signals bearish divergence. Traders may interpret this as a warning that the current bullish trend may be losing momentum, signaling a potential price drop.

4. Zero Line Crossovers

When the MACD line crosses above the zero line, it confirms a bullish trend, indicating strong upward momentum. When it crosses below the zero line, it suggests a bearish trend, indicating that downward momentum is increasing.

Example: For Crude Oil (WTI), if the MACD line crosses above the zero line, it suggests that upward momentum is gaining strength, indicating a good time to buy. If the MACD line crosses below the zero line, it suggests a potential downtrend, signaling traders to consider selling or shorting oil.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the MACD

Like any trading tool, the MACD indicator comes with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Understanding both can help traders use them effectively in their strategies.

Advantages:

• Simplicity: The MACD indicator is easy to understand and use, even for beginners.
• Versatility: It works in various financial markets (stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies) and on different timeframes.
• Clear Signals: The MACD provides clear signals for trend changes, which can help active investors make informed decisions.
• Identifying Momentum: It helps traders identify momentum shifts, allowing them to enter or exit trades at the right time.

Disadvantages:

• Lagging Indicator: Since MACD is based on moving averages, it is a lagging indicator, meaning it reacts to price action rather than predicting it. This can lead to delayed signals.
• False Signals: In trading ranges or sideways markets, the MACD indicator can give false signals, leading to potential losses if relied on solely.
• Requires Confirmation: To improve accuracy, it’s recommended to combine the MACD with other indicators such as RSI, price action, or support and resistance levels.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Using MACD

While the MACD indicator can be a powerful tool, traders often make certain mistakes that can lead to inaccurate signals and poor decision-making. Recognizing and avoiding these common errors is essential for effective use of MACD in trading.

• Overreliance on MACD: Relying solely on the MACD indicator can be risky. It’s important to combine it with other technical tools for confirmation of signals.
• Ignoring Market Conditions: MACD can give false signals in range-bound or choppy markets. Always consider the broader market context.
• Chasing After Every Crossover: Not every MACD crossover will result in a successful trade. Avoid entering positions based on crossovers alone, and wait for confirmation from other indicators.
• Overlooking Divergence: While divergence can signal a reversal, ignoring the broader trend can result in missed opportunities or losses.
• Neglecting to Confirm with Volume: MACD signals are more reliable when confirmed with volume indicators. Failing to check volume can lead to misleading signals and poorly-timed trades.
• Using Fixed Settings Without Testing: Many traders use the default MACD settings without adjusting them to fit their trading style. It’s important to test and customize the settings to align with the asset’s volatility and the trader’s strategy.
• Not Using Stop-Loss or Risk Management: Even though MACD provides strong signals, failing to implement proper stop-loss and risk management can lead to large losses if the market moves against you.
• Failing to Adjust for Volatility: The MACD can behave differently in high-volatility conditions. Not adjusting your approach based on the asset’s volatility can lead to misinterpretations of MACD signals.

In Summary

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a powerful tool for traders to identify price trends, momentum, and potential entry and exit points. By understanding how MACD works and using it in combination with other indicators, traders can enhance their decision-making process. While it offers clear signals, like any technical indicator, the MACD is not foolproof and should be used with caution, keeping in mind its limitations and the market context.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is MACD?

The MACD indicator is a trend-following momentum indicator that calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages to identify potential buy or sell signals.

2. How do you calculate MACD?

MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result is the MACD line, which is then compared with the 9-period signal line for trading signals.

3. Is MACD useful for all markets?

Yes, the MACD indicator is versatile and can be used across different asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies.

4. What is the zero line in MACD?

The zero line in MACD is the point where the MACD line and the signal line cross. A crossover above the zero line signals bullish momentum, while a crossover below the zero line indicates bearish momentum.

5. What does a MACD crossover mean?

A MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above or below the signal line. A crossover above the signal line is typically seen as a buy signal, suggesting an upward trend, while a crossover below the signal line is considered a sell signal, indicating a possible downward trend.

6. How can I use MACD for trend reversals?

MACD divergence is a key signal for potential trend reversals. When the price of an asset makes new highs or lows, but the MACD fails to mirror this movement (i.e., the MACD forms lower highs during an uptrend or higher lows during a downtrend), it can indicate a weakening trend and a potential reversal.

7. Can MACD be used with other indicators?

Yes, the MACD indicator works best when combined with other indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Averages, to confirm signals. Using two indicators, like MACD and RSI together, can provide more reliable trading signals by enhancing accuracy and reducing false signals. Combining MACD with support and resistance levels can also provide additional insights for better trade decisions.

8. What is the MACD histogram?

The MACD histogram represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. It visually shows the strength of the momentum. When the histogram bars are above the zero line, it indicates bullish momentum, while bars below the zero line indicate bearish momentum. The histogram can help confirm the strength of a trend.

9. What is MACD divergence?

MACD divergence occurs when the price moves in one direction but the MACD moves in the opposite direction. Bullish divergence happens when prices make new lows but the MACD forms higher lows, indicating a potential reversal to the upside. Bearish divergence occurs when prices make new highs but the MACD forms lower highs, suggesting a potential reversal to the downside.

Bitcoin is taking a breather after its recent rally, with long-term investors holding firm while retail interest remains quiet. This pause hints at consolidation, not weakness, as the market positions for its next move.

Bitcoin stalls near $117K amid consolidation phase

Bitcoin’s recent surge has begun to level out, with the cryptocurrency now trading around $117,300 after reaching a local high of $119,652.

Although the short-term chart reveals a minor dip, this movement follows a strong upward trend and appears to signal a period of consolidation rather than a bearish reversal.

The 3% decline over the past week mirrors a broader market adjustment, as traders respond to macroeconomic uncertainties and rebalance positions in the wake of significant ETF-driven flows.

Institutional activity reshapes market structure

Rather than indicating fading interest, the pullback seems to reflect strategic consolidation by large-scale investors.

Institutional players are reportedly consolidating smaller unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) into single wallets – a method that typically signals long-term holding strategies rather than active trading.

This behaviour suggests that major holders are reducing available liquidity on exchanges in favour of secure, off-exchange storage.

Notably, this market cycle lacks the broad retail enthusiasm seen in previous rallies.

Unlike earlier bull runs – where increased grassroots activity and a spike in new UTXOs signalled retail FOMO – retail engagement in 2025 has remained relatively muted.

On-chain data supports this, showing a slower rate of new UTXO creation. This gap in retail participation is important.

Without fresh inflows from smaller investors, price momentum increasingly depends on institutional demand.

While this dynamic can provide a stable base and limit downside risk, it may also delay the kind of sharp price surges typically fuelled by retail mania.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin recently attempted to break above the $120K threshold but encountered firm resistance at $119,652, retreating into a narrow consolidation zone.

Picture: Bitcoin battles for direction, buyers hold the floor, but 120K is still a tough ceiling to crack, as seen on the VT Markets app.

The 15-minute chart displays some erratic swings, including a brief dip below $116,000 that was swiftly bought up – indicating that buying interest on price dips remains strong.

The MACD indicator is beginning to trend upwards again, hinting at the potential for renewed bullish momentum if it holds.

However, short-term moving averages remain closely clustered, which may limit near-term upside potential.

A decisive move above $118,000 could reignite bullish sentiment. Failing that, another test of the $116K level remains on the table.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

The recent pause near the $119K mark doesn’t appear to be a bearish sign. Instead, it suggests a re-accumulation phase, particularly by long-term holders.

Exchange inflows are still low, leverage across the market remains stable, and over-the-counter (OTC) activity is brisk – indicating that the market is positioning itself quietly for a potential upward move.

All eyes now turn to whether retail traders re-enter the market. A surge in new UTXOs and exchange volume could point to renewed retail interest – both are indicators that often precede breakout rallies.

Until then, Bitcoin seems set to hold its ground, supported by strong conviction from institutional and long-term investors.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

The Japanese yen saw a modest surge following the Upper House election on Sunday, but analysts remain skeptical of its staying power.

Bounce of the Japanese Yen Short-Lived as Political Risk Looms

On paper, the market welcomed the fact that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will remain in power despite the ruling coalition losing its majority.

But the tone is far from celebratory.

BoJ Stays Dovish in the Face of Uncertainty

The Bank of Japan, already cautious about raising rates, now has even more reason to remain dovish. Heightened political risk tends to favour policy stability over experimentation, and with the spectre of trade tension looming, the BoJ may lean on continuity rather than tightening. This adds an undercurrent of softness to the outlook of the Japanese yen.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY slipped to 147.88 by the Monday close, briefly testing intraday lows near 147.69 on the back of political headlines.

Remaining under heavy selling pressure with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, the MACD histogram is firmly negative and expanding. Price also remains decisively below the 30-MA, reinforcing the intraday bearish structure.

Picture: USDJPY struggles beneath 148.00 as momentum fades. A break below 147.69 opens the door to deeper decline, as seen on the VT Markets app

The recent move comes amid growing caution from traders following mixed comments from BoJ policymakers last week, where Governor Ueda hinted that “exit from ultra-loose policy will remain gradual.”

Meanwhile, a firmer US dollar has failed to keep USD/JPY afloat, suggesting potential haven demand for the yen is resurfacing. If 147.69 breaks, eyes shift to the next psychological level at 147.50.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.