Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Forex Analysis: 11 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Key Points:

• The December U.S. inflation report, releasing on Thursday, will be a focal point for markets.
• While core CPI is expected to moderate on a year-over-year basis, the headline gauge is predicted to reaccelerate, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve.
• Gold prices, yields, the U.S. dollar, and the Nasdaq 100 are expected to be highly sensitive to the consumer price index data.

Market Overview:

• Wall Street will closely monitor the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ consumer price index report on Thursday.
• The data could influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions, including the timing of the first interest rate cut.
• December headline CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.2%, a setback for the Fed aiming for a 2.0% inflation target.
• The core gauge is forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with the 12-month reading easing to 3.8% from the previous 4.0%.

Market Response Scenarios:

• Market response will depend on how the inflation figures align with consensus estimates, considering two scenarios: an upside surprise or lower-than-projected numbers.

Potential Outcomes:

• A hot CPI report exceeding forecasts may prompt traders to unwind dovish bets on the Fed’s path, resulting in higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. This could bear negatively on gold, stocks, and indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
• Conversely, a benign report with figures milder than anticipated, especially on core metrics, may validate aggressive wagers on rate reductions in 2024. This scenario could be bullish for gold and risk assets.

Market Dynamics:

• Current market pricing suggests around 130 basis points of easing for the new year. The resilience of the U.S. economy and signs of stabilization may make the FOMC hesitant to significantly cut borrowing costs, adding significance to the December CPI report.

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STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:

• Focus: Investors seeking clues on Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions
• Expected Inflation Rates:
  • Annual Headline Inflation: 3.2%
  • Annual Core Inflation: 3.8% (excluding food and energy)
• Importance: Critical for investors, influencing the Fed’s monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts
• Market Expectations:
  • Bank of America expects slightly higher readings than consensus, leaving room for a Fed rate cut in March.
  • Markets currently price in a roughly 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in March.
• Monthly Changes (December):
  • Overall Prices: Expected to increase by 0.2%
  • Core Inflation: Expected to increase by 0.3%
• Key Areas to Watch (Goldman Sachs):
  • Car prices and shelter expected to continue declining.
  • Airfares could pose an upside risk, with a potential 5% increase in December.
• Fed Officials’ Comments:
  • Fed officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, show a measured approach.
  • Bowman suggests a potential rate cut if inflation falls further, while Bostic emphasizes the need to evolve with the economy.
• Market Reaction Expectations: Wall Street strategists temper expectations for stock reactions, considering an already aggressive rally and potential asymmetric risk in CPI numbers.

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Dear Client,

Affected by international holidays, the trading hours of some VT Markets products will be adjusted. Please check the following link for the remaining affected products:

Notification of Trading Adjustment in Holiday (Updated)

Note: The dash sign (-) indicates normal trading hours.

Friendly Reminder:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Analyzing USD Stability and Stock Market Trends

CURRENCIES:

• Stagnant US Dollar: The US dollar remains relatively unchanged in today’s opening trade, leading to a state of uncertainty for USD pairs.
• Consolidation Phase: The US dollar index is currently consolidating its recent upward movement. The lack of direction from the rates market is expected to persist until the release of the upcoming US inflation report on Thursday at 13:30 UK time.
• Market Expectations: Financial markets are currently factoring in a total of 150 basis points in US interest rate cuts for the year. The initial 25 basis point adjustment is anticipated at the March 20th FOMC meeting.
• Chart Analysis: The US dollar index chart illustrates a short-term consolidation, with last Friday’s jobs report candle acting as a constraining factor. Conflicting moving averages, including the 20-day sma supporting the dollar index and the 50-/200-day sma forming a potential negative ‘death cross,’ present a mixed outlook.
• Fibonacci Retracement: The dollar index is positioned on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-July to early-October movement.

Financial Markets Analysis:

STOCK MARKET:

• Market Turbulence: The crypto community experienced a surge in Bitcoin’s price to nearly $48,000 following an apparent announcement on X (formerly Twitter) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
• SEC Chair’s Clarification: Within fifteen minutes, SEC Chair Gary Gensler declared the message as “unauthorized” and inaccurate, stating that the SEC’s X account had been “compromised,” and the tweet was unauthorized. He emphasized that the SEC had not approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• Price Fluctuation: Bitcoin’s value retreated to $45,500 after Gensler’s clarification, resulting in a loss of $63 billion in market value within minutes.
• Official Statement: The SEC, through a spokesperson, clarified that the unauthorized message on X was not made by the SEC or its staff. The agency confirmed unauthorized access to its X account and pledged to investigate the incident.
• ETF Approval Speculation: The incident added to the market frenzy around the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs, seen as a significant development for widespread acceptance of the cryptocurrency.
• Market Expectations: Some applicants anticipated SEC approval on Wednesday, with trading potentially commencing on Thursday. However, Gensler’s statement contradicted these expectations.
• Notable Applicants: Major names on Wall Street, including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, applied for spot Bitcoin ETFs. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs offered assistance to these money managers.
• Industry Impact: Stakeholders believe that spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract substantial capital into Bitcoin, potentially elevating its price.
• Price Prediction: Analysts estimate that financial products related to spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract $10 billion or more in investment flows by the end of 2024, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.
• Crypto Risks Warning: Gensler, in a recent statement, reiterated the risks associated with crypto investments, emphasizing their volatility and susceptibility to insolvency.
• Optimistic Outlook: Despite past challenges, the crypto industry anticipates wider acceptance and regulatory clarity, with optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s “halving” in April and potential interest rate cuts in 2024.
• Long-Term Prediction: Analysts predict Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2025, considering various factors, including regulatory developments and industry changes.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Daily Forex Analysis: 9 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

• Gold Price Forecast Overview:
  • Gold prices displayed a downward trend in early 2024 after a robust performance in late 2023.
  • Traders are cautious about entering new bullish positions, seeking more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
• Concerns and Market Behavior:
  • Traders hesitate due to the fear of a potential bearish reversal if anticipated deep interest rate cuts for 2024 do not materialize.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signals potential borrowing cost cuts, but market expectations may be overly dovish given the current economic conditions.
• Key Focus on December U.S. Inflation Report:
  • Gold market attention shifts to the upcoming release of the December U.S. inflation report, a high-impact event.
• FedWatch Tool and Probabilities:
  • The FedWatch Tool indicates market probabilities for the FOMC meeting outcomes.
  • The tool provides insights into market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s actions.
• US Inflation Data Insights:
  • Focus on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) yearly reading, expected to moderate slightly.
  • The headline CPI is forecasted to reaccelerate, posing challenges for policymakers.
• Potential Outcomes for Gold:
  • Gold’s upward trajectory is favored by weak inflation numbers.
  • A CPI report in line with or above forecasts may lead to a hawkish policy repricing, contributing to gold’s recent corrective decline.

Discover Precious Metal Trading with VT Markets here.

STOCK MARKET:

• Fed Officials Caution Against Early Rate Cuts:
  • Two Federal Reserve officials expressed their belief on Monday that maintaining current interest rates for an extended period could help bring inflation back to the central bank’s target.
  • This stance contradicts Wall Street expectations of potential rate cuts in the first quarter of the year.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s Perspective:
  • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, while keeping the option of interest rate hikes open, suggested the possibility of a further decline in inflation with the current policy rate.
  • She moderated her previous view, stating that raising rates might not be necessary to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
• Evolution of Views:
  • Bowman, speaking in Columbia, S.C., noted that her perspective evolved, considering the potential for inflation to decrease while keeping the policy rate steady.
  • While acknowledging the eventual need to lower rates to prevent excessive restrictiveness, she emphasized that such a move is not yet warranted.
• Divergence from Investor Expectations:
  • Bowman’s comments do not align with the aggressive expectations of investors, who have priced in six rate cuts this year, double the median projection of three cuts by all Fed officials. The anticipated timeline for these cuts is March.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s Position:
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in separate remarks, echoed a cautious approach, emphasizing the inclination to keep rates steady until confirming the return of inflation to target.
  • Bostic previously predicted the possibility of two cuts in the second half of the year, maintaining a restrictive stance.
• Concerns and Risks:
  • Bowman expressed concerns about potential upside risks to inflation, citing geopolitical tensions affecting food and energy prices.
  • Financial conditions easing could lead to a growth reescalation, hindering progress in lowering inflation or causing a reacceleration.
  • The risk of a strong job market keeping the services portion of inflation persistently high was also highlighted, especially given the recent robust job gains and wage growth.
• Future Policy Decisions:
  • While the current policy stance aims to bring inflation down over time, Bowman remains open to raising the federal funds rate in the future if incoming data indicates a stall or reversal in progress on inflation.

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