Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Forex Daily Analysis: 25 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Overview: Gold and Silver Struggle

• Heavyweight US data releases anticipated later this week.
• Latest Fed rate expectations indicate six quarter-point cuts this year.
• Gold and Silver prices experience challenges, but the sell-off is contained.

US Rate Expectations: A Shift in Outlook

• New assessment suggests six quarter-point cuts, with the first expected in May.
• Contrast to the previous week, where seven cuts were forecasted, starting in March.
• The UST 2-year daily yield rises from 4.14% to 4.40%, signaling a moderation in rate cut expectations.

Upcoming US Economic Data Releases

• Three key releases scheduled for the week: US Q4 GDP on Thursday, Durable Goods report, and Core PCE report on Friday.
• These releases closely monitored by the Fed in anticipation of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Gold Price Action and Trading Range

• Gold currently trades within a $2,000/oz. – $2,040/oz. range.
• Series of higher lows provide support, while price action around the 20- and 50-day moving averages remains uncertain.
• Potential break lower could target prior support at $1,987/oz.

Retail Trader Sentiment for Gold

• Retail trader data indicates 59.13% are net-long.
• Changes show a 7.39% decrease in net long positions compared to yesterday.
• Weekly changes indicate a 4% reduction in net long positions.

Silver’s Recovery and Chart Analysis

• Silver rebounds today after a multi-week sell-off from late December.
• Brief dip below $22/oz. on Monday, followed by a recovery, currently trading approximately 1.1% higher.
• The cluster of lows around $20.71 from early October may face renewed pressure.

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STOCK MARKET:

S&P 500 Soars to New Highs:

• The S&P 500 (^GSPC) continues its record-setting rally, surging nearly 0.3% to achieve a new closing high of 4,864.61.
• Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also gains momentum, rising 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) experiences a slight dip of about 0.2% following its breakthrough above 38,000 on Monday.

Sector Performances:

Winners:

• Consumer Staples (XLP) and Communications Services (XLC) lead gains in the S&P 500.
• Staples surge over 1%, with notable quarterly results from Procter & Gamble (PG) and Verizon (VZ).

Earnings Impact on Dow:

• Dow faces a setback as 3M (MMM) drops over 10% due to a 2024 profit outlook below Wall Street’s expectations.

Earnings-Driven Moves:

Positive Outlook Lifts Airlines:

• United Airlines (UAL) provides an optimistic 2024 profit forecast, boosting its shares by 5%.
• Positive momentum extends to other airlines, including Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL).

Tech Focus – Netflix (NFLX):

• Netflix (NFLX) takes the spotlight with earnings reported after the bell.
• The company announces a deal with TKO Group’s WWE (TKO), impacting TKO shares positively.

Ongoing Developments:

3M (MMM) Earnings Disappointment:

• Dow affected by a more than 10% drop in 3M (MMM) shares due to a below-expectation 2024 profit outlook.

United Airlines (UAL) Resilience:

• Despite warnings about the Boeing 737 Max 9 planes’ grounding impact, United Airlines (UAL) shares rise with an upbeat 2024 profit forecast.

Netflix (NFLX) Partnership:

• Netflix (NFLX) strikes a deal with TKO Group’s WWE (TKO), leading to a nearly 15% rise in TKO shares.

Outlook and Market Dynamics:

• Earnings in various sectors contribute significantly to market movements.
• Ongoing focus on corporate America’s health and economic indicators.
• Continued attention to tech-driven rallies and sector-specific earnings for market insights.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Forex Markets Analysis: 23 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

• The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have all achieved new record highs, signaling a complete reversal of the recent stock market dip from December to early January.
• In Japan, the Nikkei 225 has hit a fresh 34-year high, while China’s Hang Seng is experiencing ongoing weakness, attributed to a battle between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the financial markets.
• The Fed is attempting to talk down interest rates, but market expectations for rate cuts persist, leading to a positive overall sentiment despite some success in lowering rate cut expectations.
• A “Fed blackout period” is currently in effect, with no speeches or comments from Fed members expected ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 31st, creating a quieter news period related to the Fed.
• Turning to the US dollar, it is trading around a 50% retracement level, with the 200-day and 50-day moving averages serving as significant support and resistance levels.
• The US Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is anticipated to be a major event for the dollar during the week, potentially influencing its performance.
• In the Eurodollar market, trading within small ranges is supported by the 200-day simple moving average, and upcoming factors such as the German and Eurozone PMIs, along with the ECB monetary policy meeting, could play a crucial role in shaping Eurodollar performance in the coming week.

STOCK MARKET:

• The ongoing equity rout in China has led to an unprecedented $38 trillion gap between the market capitalization of the US stock market and that of Hong Kong and China combined, setting a new record.
• Michael Liang, Chief Investment Officer at Foundation Asset Management HK Ltd., notes that while China presents value, the lack of catalysts is hindering its performance, while the US market benefits from momentum and a favorable economy.
• Global investor sentiment toward China is painted negatively as steep losses continue, contrasting with US stocks that have reached record highs, fueled by a technology rally and optimism about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• Since February 2021, Chinese stocks have witnessed a loss of over $6.3 trillion in market value, while US equities have gained $5.3 trillion over the same period.
• Doubts over Beijing’s long-term economic agenda and strategic competition with the US are contributing to what started as a performance-driven exodus potentially becoming a structural shift.
• Bloomberg strategists, including Kumar Gautam, suggest that China’s correction might continue, estimating a 51% probability of the MSCI China Index trading below its peak for an average of 35 months.
• Despite the prolonged rout, some investors see potential for a technical rebound due to attractive valuations. The MSCI China Index is now 60% cheaper than the US equity benchmark based on earnings-based valuations.
• The MSCI Inc.’s key gauge for Chinese equities trades at about eight times 12-month forward estimated earnings, significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index’s 20 times.
• Currently, there is little indication of an end to the challenging start of 2024 for Chinese equities, with a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong already losing 13%, making it the worst-performing major global benchmark index in less than a month.
• Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong already losing 13%, making it the worst-performing major global benchmark index in less than a month.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Forex Markets Update: 22 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Equities Forecast:

• US equities, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, reach fresh all-time highs, propelled by a robust performance in big tech stocks.
• The ongoing Q4 earnings season, especially results from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies, is anticipated to further boost US indices.
• Notably, Microsoft alone holds a significant 7.29% weighting in the S&P 500 index.

US Dollar Performance:

• The US dollar initiates the year with strength, attributed to Federal Reserve Members countering overly optimistic interest rate cut expectations.
• US Treasury yields support the USD against various currencies.
• Precious metals, particularly gold, face pressure as they test the $2,000/oz. level.

Upcoming Events and Releases:

• A multitude of Q4 US earnings releases is scheduled for the upcoming week.
• Key economic events include the closely monitored Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, significant given elevated USD/JPY levels.
• Thursday brings the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision, while Friday features the US core PCE release, positioning them as the week’s main attractions.

Monday

• Economic data: Leading Index, December (-0.3%, expected, -0.5% prior)
• Earnings: United Airlines, Logitech, Zions Bancorporation Top of Form

STOCK MARKET:

Market Highlights:

• US equities achieve new record highs with S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite in positive territory for January.
• Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan boosts positive vibes as consumers express confidence in the economy.

Corporate Earnings:

• Tech results take center stage with Netflix (NFLX) earnings on Tuesday and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday.
• Other notable reports include Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), United Airlines (UAL), Verizon (VZ), and AT&T (ATT).
• Overall, one of the busiest weeks for quarterly reports on Wall Street.

Economic Data:

• First reading of Q4 economic growth expected on Thursday.
• Release of the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, scheduled for Friday.

Economic Growth Outlook:

• Resilient data indicates a potential 2% annualized growth in the US economy for Q4.
• Oxford Economics expresses confidence in the ongoing economic expansion, citing a strong labor market, deceleration in inflation, and looser financial conditions.

Inflation and Rate Cut Speculations:

• Key debate centers on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
• Investors shift from an 81% chance of a March rate cut to 49%.
• Goldman Sachs chief economist anticipates a March rate cut, driven by a decline in inflation to the target of 2%.

Upcoming Events:

• Federal Reserve in blackout period, focusing attention on earnings as a key driver of stock market sentiment.
• Technology earnings, particularly from large-cap companies, may influence short-term market direction.
• Focus on Netflix demand for new advertising tier and Tesla’s margins, with CEO Elon Musk’s comments under scrutiny.
• Fourth quarter earnings show a weak start, but the narrative is expected to shift to Technology and Communication Services, where growth is anticipated.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.