Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks closed at the highest levels of the day amid optimism that President Donald Trump will leave the hospital and lawmakers will move closer to providing more stimulus.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rebounded from Friday’s swoon in the wake of Trump’s coronavirus disclosure. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. rallied after Trump was given an experimental antibody treatment made by the drug maker. Energy, health care and technology shares were the biggest gainers in the S&P, pushing the benchmark index up by the most in almost four weeks.

Traders also pointed to polls suggesting a stronger lead for Biden and the possibility that a clear winner will emerge from the Nov. 3 election. U.S. markets have been nervous in recent weeks about a close election and the risk of a long and messy legal battle.

Elsewhere, consumer companies and banks led a broad advance among European stocks. Equities in Asia notched gains, while crude oil rebounded from a three-week low and gold advanced.

Main Pairs Movement

The greenback slid the most in more than a month as improving risk sentiment and anticipation of a Democratic sweep in November drove stocks and Treasury yields higher; all of the G-10 currencies except the yen and Kiwi dollar strengthened.

Other than this, risk assets benefited from polls showing ebbing odds of a disputed election outcome along with the potential for an agreement on another round of fiscal stimulus. Canadian loonie fell .3% to 1.3257 as of writing, lowest level since Sept. 21 as WTI oil gained 5.9% most since May amid risk-on.

As commodities-linked currency, Aussie rose .3% to .7128, was supported after the nation’s Prime Minister said the government will bring forward $7.5 billion in infrastructure finding into this year’s budget, which will be released Tuesday.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

Gold hovered with 2 consecutive day with extended its solid upward consolidative price action through the early Euro session and remained confined in a range, close around 1913.5. For RSI aspect, index rallied up to 59, suggesting a benign bullish guidance for further.

Other than this, we still believe the bullish gold position is motivated by high positive correlation with U.S. shares market through risk sentiment improvement as we observation previously. In contrast, DXY index went down below the critical support at 93.7 around which driving by risk-on as well. Meantime, investors are pricing for Democrat candidate, Joe Biden, will win the election contested on Nov.3. according to currencies volatility market.

Resistance: 1919.8, 1936.75

Support: 1908.09, 1884.09

EURUSD(H4)

Euro dollar is trading at fresh two-week highs at 1.1783 as much as 1% and poised to extend its advance. At the same time, the U.S. ISM Services PMI surged to 57.8 in Sept against 56.2 expected then consecutive optimism in nearly months that risk appetite bolster hit greenback. On the other hands, European data was also encouraging, as Retail Sales in the Union were up 4.4% MoM in August, much better than anticipated, while the E.U. Markit Services PMI came in at 48 in Sept, better than the previous estimate of 47.6, although still signaling economic contraction. This Tuesday, Germany will release Aug. Factory Orders, seen advancing a modest 2.6% MoM. Also, ECB’s Largarde and Fed’s Powell are due to offer speeches in separate event.

For RSI aspect, it close to over bought area at 67 around, suggesting a bullish further guidance. Long-term MA is converse its downward trend to flat position and short-term MA remained soar up. Meanwhile, euro dollar seems rebound to critical resistance above 1.1756 around. We believe euro dollar would highly probably extend it bullish trend with modest momentum.

Resistance: 1.1795, 1.1857

Support: 1.1755, 1.1711

USDJPY (H4)

Japan yen rallied up .4% to 105.72, with residual offers near the 105.4 level reached during Friday’s New York session taken out by interbank buyers that led to a minor squeeze on leveraged accounts. According to RSI indicator, it surged up to 60 figure that suggesting a benign bullish trend ahead, mixed with several strength resistance that far away on 106 around.

On the other hands, both long- and short-term MA heads up with support that give multi-signal for further upward trend.

Resistance: 105.8, 105.92, 106.27

Support: 105.4, 105.27, 105.04

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks advanced, led by gains in the biggest technology companies, as investors weighed the chances Democratic lawmakers and the White House will reach a deal for a fiscal-stimulus package.

The Nasdaq 100 reached the highest in almost a month as Amazon.com, Microsoft and Tesla rose. The S&P 500 Index’s advance was limited by declines in energy producers. Trading was volatile, with stocks pushed around by the latest developments in efforts to forge a stimulus bill acceptable to Democrats and Republicans. Talks were set to continue Thursday as officials sought a breakthrough. However, market eked out earlier session gain after Pelosi rips White House offer that cooling stimulus hopes.

European stocks closed slightly higher. Gold advanced, while Treasury yields dipped. Oil tumbled to about $39 a barrel on concern about oversupply amid sluggish economic growth.

U.S. stock markets have been whipsawed this week by speculation over whether lawmakers will agree to provide new pandemic-relief aid amid high unemployment and growing rates of infection in some areas. While the S&P 500 Index is up more than 50% from its March low, it’s still down more than 5% from a record high reached last month. Oil tumbled on concern the market may be oversupplied.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Sterling was left weaker after a bout of volatility unleashed by conflicting indications about Brexit trade talks between U.K. and European Union. Greenback weakened for 4 consecutive days as haven demand ebbed, even as the White House and Congress remained at loggerheads over a fiscal stimulus package.

Meanwhile, greenback idled near session lows after U.S. initial jobless claims declined more than forecast, evidence of labor market improvement. Among G-10 currencies, kiwi dollar and Swedish krona led gains against the dollar then sterling fell the most.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

As previously mention, gold has positive correlation as gold significantly soared up torrid as much as 1.07% to 1909.6 and share market edged up at the same time while writing. However, it closed to the strength resistance in 1909 around and once stopped in earlier session. For RSI aspect, it still locates in 61 around, suggesting a modest boost would be extended further.

Additionally, DXY index faltering around 93.72 currently in nearly 2 days while shares market hovered 2 consecutive days. Meanwhile, cooling stimulus hopes have given uncertainty to shares market further then we have to eyes on the aforementioned critical resistance and support whether be break through or not.

Resistance: 1909.64, 1918.22

Support: 1895.5, 1883, 1873.2

EURUSD(H4)

The euro edged up as much as 0.1% to 1.1747 as of writing. According to DTCC data, cross appears constrained by a series of large option expiries near 1.175 and 1.18. In the meantime, euro dollar benefited from leveraged buying in EUR/GBP which gained as much as .9% to 0.9156 as well.

For RSI index aspect, it is faltering around 60 thresholds, suggesting a prospective bullish trend in near term. On the other hands, 15-MA has cross over the 60-MA notwithstanding long-term indicator considerable weakness as downward.

Resistance: 1.176, 1.1794

Support: 1.1712, 1.1685

AUDUSD (H4)

Aussie has stayed a bit shy of 0.721 which highest in eight days, flashed the previous day and it rose for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday then held 0.7182 around the market close. Meantime, a mild optimism concerning the U.S. aid package talks, coupled with a pause in the surging COVID-19 numbers from Europe, seem to have favored the Aussie buyers off-late. Other than this, Australian is heading of Retail Sales data on Friday that offer a critical sentiment as economy improvement evidence.

For RSI perspective, it creepy up to 64.5, suggesting a bullish position n further. On the other hands, 15-MA has golden cross 60-MA, but long-term MA remained upwind. As RSI index spiral at culmination and MA indicator show mix information, we believed it would consolidate at range 0.7161 to 0.7209 while strength resistance is ahead of.

Resistance: 0.7197, 0.7209

Support: 0.7161, 0.7141, 0.7109

conomic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

The end-of-month rebound in global equities faded as investors weighed prospects for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and the outlook for the coronavirus pandemic. Oil tumbled on concern slow growth will limit demand. WTI oil fell toward $39 a barrel in New York.

The S&P 500 Index slumped, with more than two stocks falling for every one that advanced, after talks on expanding aid ended for the day with plans to resume discussions tomorrow. Elsewhere, Banks led broad-based declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 index. On the other hands, data showing New York City’s rate of positive tests rose above 3% for the first time in months weighed on sentiment.

With the pandemic’s global death toll exceeding 1 million and virus cases on the upswing in many locales, investors are pinning hopes on a $2.2 trillion stimulus proposal by Democrats to help support economic growth. End-of-month and end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing could also be exacerbating market moves as September comes to a close.

The negotiations between the Trump administration and congressional Democrats are reaching a critical juncture this week. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke Tuesday morning for 50 minutes and are set to speak again Wednesday.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar touched the lowest in almost a week after a report showed consumer confidence rebounded by the most in 17 years and as traders eye the U.S. presidential debate later Tuesday.

The euro is on pace to rise the most this month on short covering amid rebalancing flows. Euro hovered 0.6% to 1.1738 as writing around the market close and versus session high of 1.1745. According to market data, real money flows ahead of month-end which was also short covering on disappointment spot could not dropped below 1.16, where large options expire later this week.

Aussie advance 0.9% to 0.7149 lead in G-10, Japan yen +0.2% to 105.69 hit two week high which not only easing fears of stock market sentiment also driven in part by EUR/JPY short covering as cross rises to its highest level since Sept. 18.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

Gold close around 1898.07 and ushered consecutive 2 days as share market hovered mixed. Also, new congressional debate of stimulus package beef up inflation prospect that spur precious mental price up. According to the 4-hour chart, gold just breakthrough double bottom pattern with novated high price in short term. Moreover, RSI index is benign upward with 62 figures, suggesting a bullish gaudiness. On the other hands, 15-MA turn upward with positive side.

However, high negative relative argue, DXY index, has tamp down to a critical support as the 93.7 level while it close at 93.87 as writing. According the image blow, we believe that gold price will more gird shares market rather than the risk aversion sentiment since unprecedented pull back from Covid-19 plummet.

Resistance: 1883, 1900

Support: 1873.84, 1870.8, 1850.7

EURUSD(H4)

Euro dollar has bounced back from monthly beleaguered at 1.1618 to currently around 1.1743 that we believe amid revival from stock market sentiment in fit and start. Meanwhile, reports alleged Germany sees an increasing likelihood that the EU’s unprecedented stimulus package could be stall. On the other hands, Euro Union is heading to leader summit tomorrow.

For RSI perspective, it strongly pulls back from over sought threshold to 66, suggesting bullish gaudiness in short term. Moreover, 15-MA shows turn into positive slope and 60-MA is getting slow pace of downward.

According to 4-hour chart, the first resistance represents heavy stress level of sell position since last slipped.

Resistance: 1.1762, 1.1794

Support: 1.1712, 1.1684

USDCAD (H4)

Lonnie once dropped to daily low of 1.335 on Tuesday but staged a higher in the early American session. As of writing, pair was up 0.12% on the day at 1.3388. On the other hands, falling crude oil price weighed on the commodities-linked loonie and fueled it to reverse direction. At the moment, the barrel of WTI is down to $39.95.

For RSI perspective, index suggesting upward signal but curbed around the neutral area. Other than this, both long- and short-term MA is heading to upward, but short term seems getting flat.

Resistance: 1.342, 1.3459

Support: 1.3344, 1.3265, 1.3143

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. Stocks jumped after four weeks of declines and European shares added the most in three months amid broad gains for equities. The greenback weakened on Monday. Banks led the S&P500 to its biggest gain in two weeks as investors found buying opportunities after the gauge fell to its lowest since July since last week. More than 10 stocks were higher on the benchmark for every one that fell. HSBC added almost 9% after its biggest shareholder raised its stake.

Signs that U.S. politicians are moving toward new fiscal stimulus has been a boon to stocks in recent days as FED continues to provide liquidity.

According to John Porter, head of equities at Mellon Investments, “the Fed is making it almost impossible for investors to get too bearish; on top of that, the market is getting more comfortable with the realization that Covid is going to stay with us for a while now.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The GBPUSD pair holds on to daily gains but pulled back from an early high of 1.2929. Pound supported by hopes of an EU-UK trade deal and comments from BOE’s Ramsden, who dismissed using negative rates.

The USDJPY pair has spent Monday consolidating near its recent highs, unable to attract investors. Eyes turn to September Tokyo inflation. The USDCAD pair gained nearly 200 pips last week and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase on Monday.

DXY is eroding part of the recent gains and recedes to the initial support around 94.20 on Monday. On the other hand, the price of oil is trading on the bid around $40.45, some 0.95% higher having travelled from a low of $39.80 and scoring the highest levels since the 21^st Sep.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

Gold has moved higher on Monday as a substantial pullback in the greenback kicks in at the start of the week. Looking at the chart, we can see that the yellow metal has gained some support at the 1850 level while breaking the resistance level above 1876. Additionally, from the RSI, we learn that the indicator is showing some bullish divergence pattern. This pattern generally takes place when the RSI waves make a higher low as the price waves made lower lows.

Some key levels to look out for includes resistances around 1883 and 1900. If the safe-haven metals could take out these levels, there is a good chance of the gold extending its price back to the highs.

Resistance: 1883, 1900

Support: 1850, 1813

EURUSD(H4)

ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, interrupted EUR’s recovery after claiming that the policymakers are monitoring FX movements, adding that it’s clear that external value of Euro has an impact on inflation. However, these comments are largely ignored by the markets. With the greenback struggling on Monday to extend its strength from the previous week, the EURUSD pair staged a rebound back from the 1.636 level and rose to a daily high at 1.1675. At the time of writing, EURUSD has retreated modestly back to 1.16670 at the time of writing, up 0.33% on the day. In all, to extend the bullish trend, EURUSD must first penetrate the next resistance level at 1.1684.

Resistance: 1.1684, 1.1715

Support: 1.1636, 1.1613

AUDUSD (H4)

AUDUSD advanced on the greenback’s pullback on Monday. At the time of writing, the pair sits around 0.7023, nearing the resistance level of 0.7074 that has been tested multiple times in the past 12 hours. However, due to the lack of any significant Australia’s economic data, it seems that the price action of AUDUSD pair may be left in the hands of market sentiment. Additionally, with the RSI is pushing away from the oversold region but cannot break past 50, we expect a bearish trend may persist. At the same time, if the bulls remain unable to break above the 0.7074 resistance, then a reversal to the downside is likely.

Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7149

Support: 0.7014, 0.6971, 0.6923

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

The September stock-market selloff that started after the overheated tech shares were no longer attracting as much investment evolved this week into a more troubling sign for the U.S. economy.

Although stocks advanced Friday after lawmakers revived hopes for a fresh spending bill, the SP500 notched a fourth straight weekly drop. This time, it was not the big tech companies that contribute to the loss, instead, companies in the banking industry and commodity producers led the decline. Additionally, airlines are sinking the most since June.

Investors are concerned that despite the Friday’s rally, the U.S. economic growth is unlikely to accelerate any time soon. Subsequently, money flowed back to the safety of the stay-at-home trade. Zoom Video Communications rallied 68%, peloton jumped 10% and Amazon added 2.5%.

According to William Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird, “the lack of fiscal stimulus and continued unrest ahead of the November election raise the risk that the pace of recovery will not just slow, but that activity may actually tick lower.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

US Durable Goods Orders were up a measly 0.4% in August, missing expectations of 1.0%, although Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Ex Aircraft jumped 1.8%. Equities bounce from lows, but the dollar maintains its strength. Subsequently, the EURUSD is challenging the weekly lows.

GBPUSD approaches its weekly low at 1.2674 as demand for the American currency extends into the final trading session of the week. Hopes for a UK trade deal with the EU doing little for Sterling.

DXY hits fresh two-month highs even as US yields decline. USDJPY about to end the week on a positive note, rebounding sharply from six-month lows.

It has been a mixed Friday for WTI as the price is moving sideways heading into the weekend. All of the excitement was last week when the OPEC+ JMMC decided to keep output levels at their current rate until December.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

It has been a rough week for the gold as the yellow metal has fallen more than 4.36% since Monday. On Friday, gold begins to consolidate around the 1863 area. Currently we can see that the bulls of gold have failed to penetrate the 1876 level a few times while the bears were also unable to break below the 1849 threshold, suggesting that the gold’s consolidation may take place between the 1849 and 1876 interval for the near term. Looking ahead, with the RSI slowly climbing back from the oversold 30 region, we expect some of the buying power to provide support to the bulls; nonetheless, if the gold were to go back of its 1900 level, a substantial break through at 1876 is necessary.

Resistance: 1876, 1900

Support: 1849, 1813

USDCAD(H4)

The Loonie trades higher above 1.3380 and touches the1.3421 on Friday. Mainly supported by good U.S. economic data that was released earlier in the day, which includes an increase of 0.4% in American Durable Good Orders in August, the continued growing DXY (at the time of writing sits at 94.60, a gain of 29%), and the uninspiring crude oil’s performance (pulling back from $40.60 to $39.90 on Friday), the Loonie resumed its bullish momentum that took place two days ago. However, a strong resistance 1.3421 seems to be a price level that will not be break easily. At the same time, with the short-term moving average 15 continues to overpower moving average 60, a slightly bullish trend is a price action that can be expected.

Resistance: 1.3421, 1.3459

Support: 1.3344, 1.3264, 1.3145

AUDUSD (H4)

The AUDUSD came under renewed bearish pressure during the American session and plummeted to its lowest level in over two months. The Aussie is now trading around 0.7029, a 0.19% shrink from previous day. Moreover, the Aussie is losing around 3.75% on a weekly basis, the biggest percentage decline since early March. The increased DXY weighed down on the already declining AUD, but with the Aussie approaching the oversold area on RSI, we can expect a upward correction might take place soon.

Resistance: 0.7070, 0.7149

Support: 0.7014, 0.6971, 0.6923

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks whipsawed as investors weighed the chances of a compromise on a new stimulus package amid concern over an uptick in global coronavirus cases.

The S&P 500 pared most of its earlier rally after optimism faded that Congress would reach a spending deal with the White House. Stocks surged midday on news that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Democratic House leader were open to fresh talks. But a report that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s fresh overture deviated only slightly from previous offers sparked concern that the two sides would remain far apart.

House Democrats have started drafting a stimulus proposal of roughly $2.4 trillion, according to multiple House Democratic officials. While smaller than the $3.4 trillion package the House passed in May, the new proposal remains much larger than what Senate Republicans have said they could accept. President Donald Trump has indicated he’d be willing to go as high as $1.5 trillion.

According to data, tracks economic activity show a slowdown in the recovery from the height of the lockdowns, with Americans again cutting back on flights and going out to eat less often. As Europe reemerged as a hot spot for Covid-19, the U.K. reported the highest number of new cases in a single day since the start of the pandemic, while France’s new infections jumped to a record.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Greenback halts a four-day winning streak Thursday then turned earlier broader gains into a mixed performance as stocks rallied after the London bond market close. U.S. data on Thursday showed sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly advanced in Aug. to the highest level in almost 14 years. On the other hands, dismal data of initial jobless claims was softer than anticipated that get 870k figure this week.

Euro dollar is hovering +0.1% as halted a four-day losing streak after trading to a two-month low at 1.1627 after German released German Ifo Business Climate index record 93.4 in September which miss expectation but creep up against last month.

Aussie has been worst hit for the fifth consecutive days, bout of dollar strength and currently dip into a two-week low around 0.704 area.

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

In the 4 hour chart, gold has closed at 1867.98 as writing halt multi day losses. It  totally regained after market slipped in morning session as shares market unstable once slipped to 2 months lows, around the 1850 region. Fed’s official reiterated for more fiscal support was likely to be necessry at interview. In other words, official is warning another outbreak or even severe on Cov-19 lead market wager on inflation will miss Fed anticipated in earlier meeting that give a chance for gold.

However, we still believe it just a trim for short term. Gold market will struggle between a range in 1908.03 and 1846.23 and following a modest downward momentum in line with bullish greenback.

Resistance: 1880.66, 1908.03

Support: 1846.23, 1813.95

GBPUSD (H4)

Sterling posted a modest intraday advance, reaching a daily high of 1.2780. UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled an emergency jobs scheme, which will result in the government and firms top up wages of workers whose jobs were affected by the pandemic. The new Job Support Scheme will cover three-quarters of normal salaries for six months starting next November. The Sterling was also supported by the September CBI Distributive Trades Survey on realized sales, which unexpectedly jumped to 11% from -6% and against the -10% expected. This Friday, the BOE will publish the Q3 Quarterly Bulletin.

For RSI index, it slightly beefs up to neutral area but so far suggesting a modest correction in tightly range as our critical resistance and support. Other than this, both MA indicator start getting smooth at this stage notwithstanding remained upwind at this stage.

Resistance: 1.2775, 1.2847, 1.300

Support: 1.2717

EURUSD (H4)

The EUR/USD is ending Thursday with modest gains around and hover 1.1670 as writing, although it posted a lower low for the week at 1.1626. Demand for the greenback prevailed throughout the first half of the day amid ruling risk aversion in daily risk aversion sentiment. However, dismal US data and equities bouncing off daily lows, put some pressure on the dollar in the last trading session of the day. Other than this, market is ahead of Aug. U.S. durable Goods Orders, it expect modest extension along with last month.

According to RSI aspect, it pulls back from nearly over sought area to almost 40, but barricade by 60-MA at the moment.

Resistance: 1.1718, 1.1766

Support: 1.1635, 1.1558

Economic Data