Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stock market rose to fresh record highs and the US bond yields fell as investors bet that a higher-than-expected inflation data will not slow down the economy recovery. The S&P 500 hit all- time high even though Johnson& Johnson vaccine got paused by the US officials with the investigation into a link from its shot to blood clots. All told, the S&P 500 added additional 0.45% to new high; the Nasdaq climbed 1.1% whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped less than 0.1%.

Bitcoin surged to an all- time high ahead of Coinbase Global Inc.’s listing this week on the 14^th. Major cryptocurrencies turned bullish in force as growing list of companies embrace Bitcoin, even some are still skeptical about the durability of the boom. In one of the most potent signs of Wall Street’s growing acceptance of Bitcoin, Coinbase will list on the Nasdaq at a valuation of about $100 Billion with roughly $343.58 per share. The debut of Coinbase will help crypto currencies move one big step further in public. A successful addition to the Nasdaq will act as endorsement of crypto currencies.

Vaccine Blood- clot side effect put concern toward AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson and Johnson. The syndrome is highly unusual in that it involves increased blood clotting along with low levels of platelets. Thus, US FDA recommended for pause on both companies’ vaccines. As a result, Johnson and Johnson’s share dropped around 2%.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

Chinese Yuan extended gain to April high as the US dollar approached a monthly low. CNH was up 0.09% to 6.5418 per US dollar, gaining 0.25% this week. CNH gained strength as investors looked through China’s March trade data, which showed a $13.8 billion surplus. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will decline to name China as a currency manipulator, boosting Yuan.

Crude oil rose about 1.2% after OPEC predicted that a rapidly economic recovery is going to absorb the extra oil supply, allowing OPEC members and allies to proceed with their agreement on increasing oil production.     

The precious metal, gold advanced as the measure of US inflation rose by the most in nearly nine years. However, even with today’s gain, gold remained pressured by rising US bond yield. Gold price usually goes up when inflation becomes a threat since gold is used as an inflation hedge.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD surges well above 1.19, as markets have reassessed US inflation data. The near- term outlook is neutral- to- bullish as the pair has outbreached yearly resistance at 1.1945. At the same time, the pair almost reaches the level above the 50 SMA, opening up a path for EURUSD to accelerate its bullish momentum further north toward 1.20 level, specifically 1.2070, a minor resistance. The technical indicator, MACD continues to lend support to bulls whilst the RSI is still out of the overbought territory, giving the pair rooms to keep up its current momentum.

Resistance: 1.2070, 1.2349

Support: 1.1945, 1.1695, 1.1492

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY is falling to convince an upward trajectory and the focus is on the downside; bears seek downside continuation on the daily chart. The pair looks poised to extend its slide further south as it breaks below the support level at 109.45 as well as the midline of Bollinger Band. Additionally, the pair has broken the ascending channel, suggesting a downside acceleration toward the next immeidate support at 107.87. Furthermore, the technical indicator, RSI is still outside of the oversold territory, giving the pair rooms to extend further south. To the downside, USDJPY might possibly confront a obstacle, the lower bound of Bollinger Band, around 108.22, before touching the support level at 107.87.

Resistance: 111.40, 114.55

Support: 107.87, 106.29

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

A little hesitation after Gold broke above the obstacle at 1746.91 yesterday; today, gold challenges the resistance once again, boosted by a renewed selling pressure surrounding the greenback after the inflation data. On the daily chart, a double bottom pattern still exists indicating a buy and bullish signal. As the time of writing, former resistance $1746.91 now acts as a strong support pivot, possibly pushing gold toward the next resistance at $1790.23. Moreover, the MACD continunes to lend support to bulls whilst the RSI of 52 has not yet reached the overbought territory, giving gold more room to extend further north.

Resistance: 1790.23, 1825.24, 1860.26

Support: 1746.91, 1676.89

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks slipped from record highs while investors weighed the start of corporate earnings season and an influx of bond supply that loom as speedbumps to a roaring rally.

Intel Corp. led tech shares lower after Nvidia Corp. said it’s offering the company’s first server microprocessors, extending a push into Intel’s most lucrative market. The S&P 500 dipped into negative territory in the wake of a third straight week of gains for the benchmark index. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index weakened.

Yields were mostly higher as the U.S. Treasury auctioned three- and 10-year notes at slightly lower demand than the previous sales of the securities. The government will offer 30-year bonds tomorrow.

While the U.S. recovery is accelerating, parts of Europe and South America are beset by rising Covid-19 cases and troubled vaccination rollouts. The rotation toward cyclical and small-cap stocks appears to have stalled as well, prompting worry about the strength of the U.S. economic comeback at the start of earnings season.

At the same time, massive government spending and central-bank stimulus could stoke excessive inflation. In an interview aired Sunday with CBS’s 60 Minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to provide reassurance that any surge in price pressures won’t last.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar pared losses as yields hovered near session highs, after 10-year notes drew the highest rate at an auction of the tenor since January 2020. Traders are turning their attention to U.S. inflation data Tuesday expected to show a pickup.

USD/JPY slipped 0.2% to 109.43; pair supported by outright buying interest near ~109.25. EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.1914; offers capped ahead of the 1.1920 pivot level; trading just above the 200-DMA of 1.1900, with support seen at 1.1860; sees trading interest in 3-month call spreads. GBP/USD +0.3% to 1.3742; rose as much as 0.5%, the most since April 5, as the U.K. took the next step in reopening the economy. A close above 1.3751 would be a bullish signal and a hold around that level sets up the possibility for a double bottom with a neckline at 1.3919; a close above there suggests an eye toward 1.4170.

Elsewhere, oil rose with the dollar little changed. Bitcoin neared an all-time high before a listing by the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The euro dollar continue consolidation in tiny range between 1.194 and 1.1877 which accord our recently perspective, trading at 1.1908 as of writing. Earlier in the day, Eurostat revealed Retail Sales in February increased by 3% following January’s contraction of 5.2%. This data beat the market expectation of 1.5% and helped the shared currency stay resilient against its rivals. On RSI side, indicator shows 60 figure which suggest a bullish momentum for ongoing short term. On average price momentum perspective, 15 and 60-long SMAs remain it upward movement, yet 15-long SMAs turn flat sign.

Therefore, we believe market will still quagmire in a slightly move range. However, aforementional indicator are giving an upward expectation. On up side, if first upper bounder breakthrough, then eye on 1.199 level. On slid side, 1.1877 level of course will be the vital support for first defend level. If penetrate first level, then price will see other lower level.

Resistance: 1.1941, 1.199

Support: 1.1871, 1.1796, 1.1705

USDCHF (Four-Hour Chart)

Swiss Franc is continue lossing it bullish that trading at lower level intraday, hits fresh one month lows, which settle around 0.9221 level while market close. On four hour chart, it is obviously that swiss franc has built up a double head pattern at higher price action level. However, we didn’t see it formed as typical symmetry double head pattern. On RSI side, indicator show 34 figure, suggesting there still remaining a bearish space in short term, moreover, 15 and 60-long SMAs are extending upwind momentum.

Therefore, integrity all suggestion above, indictors expect swiss franc will toward to downside movement. However, we more inclined to form another head price action. On down side, it is sucessively testing month-long lows around 0.922 level currently, so we deem month-long low level will be the critical support at the moment. if breakthrough support level firmly, we see lower price spot. On contrast, if marketplace intend to built up another head which will become thriple head pattern, first upward resistance will 0.9268, 0.9309 is subsequent.

Resistance: 0.9268, 0.9309

Support: 0.922

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

After fail to challenge stand above the head level of “W shape” pattern, gold is continue tamp down to lower level in the day, trading at 1732.75 while end of day. On RSI side, indicator drop below to 42 which suggest a bearish momentum ahead. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator remain a ascending trend, yet seemingly turn flat.

Combing suggestion above, we foresee marketplace will continue it bearish movement. However, we see 1722.75 level should be the first and cogent barrier.

Resistance: 1754.53, 1759.72

Support: 1722.75, 1678.85

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity markets were roughly positive as stocks rose toward another record as traders shifted attention away from inflation and focused on prospects for an economic rebound, resulting in a decline in US Treasury yields and a decline in the US dollar index. Equity market kept up its momentum and continued to surge from March 2020 lows to approx. 85% as the Federal Reserve reassured markets that the fed policy will remain supportive. All told, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages rose about 297.03 points; the Nasdaq climbed 0.5% while the S&P 500 gained 0.8%.

Joe Biden plans to request $715 billion USD for his first pentagon budget, generating concerns over how these funds would be spent. The $715 billion budget is roughly 1.6% higher than the $704 billion enacted for this year. This difference has launched the concern over the real terms adjusted for inflation.

US- China tension continues to edge up after the US Commerce Department added seven more Chinese supercomputing companies to a US economic blacklist citing national security considerations. Companies that are being blacklisted include Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics, the National Supercomputing Center Jinan, the National Supercomputing Center Shenzhen, the National Supercomputing Center Wuxi, and the National Supercomputing Center Zhengzhou. US has complained that those Chinese companies are beholden to China, and at the same time collect sensitive information on the behalf of Chinese military.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

WTI continued to trade in the range of $59- $60. In the near- term, as the pandemic has accelerated in some key developed countries and also some countries in Europe, like Germany, the darkening of the near- term oil demand outlook has been reflected in downwards revision.

The British Pound struggled around 1.37 against the US dollar on US dollar strength and covid concerns. The US dollar rebounded from dovish Fed- induced blow. On the UK insight, as the UK will take the next step in tis gradual easing of restrictions, the economic recovery focuses on the response of households to the reopening; as a result, the uncertainty has weakened the British Pound.

USDCAD dropped to daily lows below 1.2540 after a strong Canadian jobs report. The Canadian dollar gained strength as the monthly data published by Canada showed that the unemployment rate in March dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic at 7.5%.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The euro dollar markethas has retreated from nearly high, trading at 1.1904 level as of writing, amid 10 year Treasuries yields pick up whilst U.S. share market went smoothly. For RSI perspective, indicator set 62 figures which suggest a bullish trend at least for short run, despite correction today. On moving average side, 15 and 60-long indicator remained upward trend that short one was getting flat movement after market whipsaw.

Integrity our perspective and follow our anticipant from yesterday, we expect market will sucessively move neutral or consolidation at currently range. We foresee the consolidation range will be 1.1871 as lower bound and 1.1941 as upper bound which stand for first pivot support and resistance, respectively.

Resistance: 1.1941, 1.198

Support: 1.1871, 1.1796, 1.1705

GBPUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD extends further south toward 1.37090 after breaking below the support level at 1.3749 on the four- hour chart. The pair continues to show bearish tendency as it steadily trades below the midline of the Bollinger Band and the 20 SMA. Furhtermore, the technical indicators, the RSI is above the 30 level outside oversold territory while the MACD still shows a sign of lending the support to bears. GBPUSD is expected to head toward the next support at 1.3670.

Resistance: 1.3749, 1.3797, 1.3836

Support: 1.3670

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

After clinging on the resistance level of $1746.91, Gold eventually breaks above the obstacle. On the daily chart, a double bottom pattern has been formed, indicating a buy and bullish signal. As the time of writing, former resistance $1746.91 now acts as a strong support pivot, possibly pushing gold toward the next resistance at $1790.23. Moreover, the MACD continunes to lend support to bulls whilst the RSI has not yet reached the overbought territory, giving gold more room to extend further north.

Resistance: 1790.23, 1825.24, 1860.26

Support: 1746.91, 1676.89

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks climbed as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has the tools to curb any inflation pressures, which are expected to be temporary as the economy reopens.

The S&P 500 notched a fresh record amid slow trading. Volume on U.S. exchanges remained under 10 billion shares, hitting another low for the year. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed major equity benchmarks as giants such as Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. rallied. Energy producers and banks retreated. Treasuries rose, while the dollar fell.

One day after the Fed’s March minutes struck a dovish tone for the path of monetary policy, Powell said the central bank would react if inflation expectations started “moving persistently and materially” above levels officials are comfortable with. He also noted that disparate efforts to vaccinate people globally is a risk to progress for the economic rebound, which remains “uneven and incomplete.”

Meanwhile, Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said it’s too soon for central bankers to discuss tapering asset purchases as long as the pandemic continues. Data Thursday showed applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose for a second week, underscoring the choppy nature of the labor-market recovery.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar retreated with U.S. Treasury yields as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation is not expected to surge out of control and the central bank would take steps to curb it, if necessary. The yen touched the highest level in two weeks on the back of falling yields.

Among G-10 currency peers, the Swedish krona and franc topped counterparts, while the Norwegian krone lagged all. USD/JPY -0.6% to 109.25; fell as much as 0.8%, the most since November; yen earlier hit a session high of 109.90. USD/JPY volatilities are lower across tenors. AUD/USD +0.5% to 0.7649; climbed as much as 0.6% to 0.7660.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The euro dollar once hit nearly two-week peak at 1.1925 then tweak down slighty, trading at 1.1913 as of writing. For Moving Average perspective, euro creep up alongside the 15-long SMAs since golden cross days ago whilst 60-long SMAs indicator pick up accelerately. For RSI side, indicator approach to 72.8 figures which suggest a over bought sentiment at current stage.

We expect that recently soared up has enacted a short squeeze which wipe out the short position momentum. Therefore, we believe market will toward to netural or consolidation movement in short term. On up way, we see first resistance at 1.194 if market move consolidation. Subsequently, pivotal resistance will at 1.199 if market beef up further which is entrenched by shoulder level of head pattern in early this year

Resistance: 1.1941, 1.19

Support: 1.1877, 1.1796, 1.1705

GBPUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

At the time of writing, sterling is trading at 1.3734 after it weathered a whipsaw movement intraday. At the meantime, the greenback traded near it lowest in two weeks versus major peers which accord with 10 year Treasuries yield tamp down. On RSI side, indicator shows 37 figure which suggest a bearish outlook at least for short run. Other than this, we see 15-long SMAs has death cross 60-long SMAs.

Therefore, we expect the market will extend it bearish momentum as integrate the suggestion from inidcators. On slid side, first support will be 1.3718 as in spade price cluster in that level, 1.3678 following as last lowest point.

Resistance: 1.377, 1.3848

Support: 1.3718, 1.3678

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

Gold has hand over the fist to breakthrough a tiny range consolidation to higher stage against yesterday slightly movement, trading at 1756.77 level which breached one month high. On RSI side, indicator has reached 73 figure as of writing, suggesting a over bought sentiment. On the other hand, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are both retaining the ascending trend after golden cross days ago.

Currently, we expect the gold market will high probability cool off the edge up movement in short term as it relatively have a too strong momentum. However, for long term perspective, it still have a prosperity on long side as it stand above the resistance of “W shape” pattern. On slid side, the critical support level at 1754 around need to be defended which stand for a shoulder level of “W shape” pattern.

Resistance: 1759.7

Support: 1754.5, 1737.7, 1678.85

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks markets were a little green after the Fed Reserve refrained from signaling any changes to its bond- buying program, causing the dollar index advance. All told, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages climbed about 0.05%; the S&P 500 rose 0.15% while the Nasdaq crawled 0.28%. The credit markets are pondering over whether if yields are going up because the economic is reopening and massive real growth is expected or if yields are going up because of inflation. If it is the former one, the stock markets will not be bothered; however, if it is the latter one, there will be a problem for the economy, according to Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

Key takeaways from the FOMC:

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unveiled a detailed pitch for Joe Biden’s new corporate tax code, planning to recoup $2 trillion in overseas profits. Yellen stated that a new tax code would be fairer to all Americans, removing incentives for companies to shift investments and profits abroad, and at the same time raising more money for critical needs at home. All told, the extra tax takes of about $2.5 trillion over 15 years would pay for Joe Biden’s eight- year infrastructure, green investments, and social program spending.

Asian stocks markets were mixed as Thailand and Hong Kong led declines while most other equity benchmarks advanced. Thailand SET index plunged the most amid a domestic surge in coronavirus infections. Restaurant and hotel shares led the decline as the Prime Minister mentioned that a tougher restriction would be imposed in an effort to fight the virus.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

GBPUSD has slipped below 1.38, extending further south as US yields resume their gains. The pair fell more than 0.6% amid doubts about Boris Johnson’s plan to reopen the country. Moreover, despite of having upbeat data, GBPUSD seems to depend heavily on movements in US bond yields, resulting in a negative move in the pair today. On the other hand, optimism from the Fed Reserve poses a risk to GBPUSD’s gains.

Gold declines after the FOMC, provided no tailwinds for the metal. The Fed Reserve saw it taking some time before conditions would be met for scaling back massive monthly asset purchases. At the same time, investors continued fleeing from gold- backed exchange traded fund, showing a bearish sign. Gold has been under the downside pressure this year amid the increasing optimism over the post- pandemic economic recovery worldwide.

The US dollar index got lifted as the Fed Reserve have shown no rush to taper assets purchases; the Fed remained optimistic on the economic impact from fiscal stimulus and vaccinations. With these, the US 10-year yield rose about 1.4%, strengthening the US dollar index.

USDCAD climbed around 0.4% as the US dollar put options worth $750 million against the Canadian dollar at 1.26 strike price, which will expire on the 9^th of April.   

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The British Pound trades near daily low around 1.3737 against the US dollar as the time of writing. The bearish trend is mostly confirmed as GBPUSD has extended its slump below its simple moving averages. Moreover, the support level at 1.3749 has been broken, giving the pair more room to accelerate the bearish momentum. Furthermore, the technical indicators, the MACD maintains its downward strength, lending support to bears, whilst the RSI has not yet fully reached the oversold readings. As of now, the next target for GBPUSD is expected to be heading toward 1.3670, the next immediate support.

Resistance: 1.3749, 1.3798, 1.3838

Support: 1.3670

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY continues to trade in the price range of 109.70- 110.97. The pair is in the stage of determing which side to go as it is currently testing the critical support level at 109.70, where the 20 SMA and the ascending trend cross. On the upside, if USDJPY fails to break though the support level, then it will bounce back to the bullish channel, suggesting a continuous positive move. To the downside, if USDJPY successfully breaks through the support, it is expected to accelerate the downside pressure toward the next support at 108.99; moreover, a near overbought RSI also lends support to bears. That being said, the pair needs to break below 109.70 to confirm another leg south.

Resistance: 110.97

Support: 109.70, 108.99, 107.77, 106.78

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold trades in a relatively tight range today on the day of FOMC, trading at $1740 as the time of writing. Gold once again clinges on the immediate resistance at $1746.91. In the near- term, bullish momentum is expected to happen, helping gold break through the resistance level as it is the 7^th time that gold retests the level. To the upside, the MACD indicator currently lends support to bulls whilst the RSI is still outside of the overbought region, giving gold a room to trade higher. Above $1746.91 and futher above the 50 SMA, gold will see a near- term base established for a deeper recovery to $1790.23, a fresh cap.

Resistance: $1746.91, $1790.23, $1825.24

Support: $1676.89

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Stocks dropped in the slowest trading day of 2021 after a rally that drove the equity market to all-time highs. Treasuries climbed.

Volume on U.S. exchanges slipped below 10 billion shares for the first time this year. Tech companies led losses in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, offsetting gains in retailers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 also retreated. Stocks tied to the Archegos Capital Management blowup ended the session higher as investors brushed news that Credit Suisse Group AG unloaded more than $2 billion of the shares in the latest block trades stemming from the liquidation of Bill Hwang’s fund.

Trading has slowed in recent days as investors grappling with wild rotations awaited the start of the earnings season. Traders bought stocks in record amounts in the first quarter of 2021 as a combination of generous stimulus and bets on an economic recovery drove $372 billion into global equity funds, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. The data confirm the bullish market sentiment that has pushed shares to fresh highs, with optimism over vaccination efforts outweighing concern that higher bond yields can interfere with the rally.

On the economic front, data showed U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in February, led by gains in some of the industries hardest hit during the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecast for the second time in three months, while warning about a divergence between advanced and lesser-developed nations.so far.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar dropped with Treasury yields as traders pared back on expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes seen after a solid U.S. jobs report last week. The euro touched a two-week high, while the franc and yen were among top performers in the Group-of-10 category as traders continued to unwind short positions held on the currencies in the first quarter.

EUR/USD +0.4% to 1.1865; touched highest since March 23. The euro volatility skew shifts to depict less bearish sentiment for the currency.

USD/JPY -0.3% at 109.85 amid fund and stop-loss sales; gamma from 110 strikes may slow drop.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

EURUSD extended it nearly bullish momentum to intraday high, trading at 1.1877 level. Apparently, euro got a significant correction from down side then toward to previously shoulder level of “M shape” pattern at 1.1877. On RSI side, indicator has breached into over bought area that close at 74 figure as of writing, suggesting a high posiblity of cool down movement against nearly market sentiment. On the other hand, 15-long SMAs has golden cross 60-SMAs base on 4-hour interval. Therefore, we expect euro dollar is still north ways space in recently short term. However, we believe 1.1877 level is a first vital resistance for whether will it extend pickup movement. If breakthrough the first resistance, next price level could eye on 1.1990. On the south way, 1.1790 is deemed the first defended level, 1.1705 following.

Resistance: 1.1877, 1.199

Support: 1.1792, 1.1705

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen has successive second negative way as a it tamp down from head pattern like highlight retangle, trading at 109.73 while market close. Currently, weakness market move is driving 15-long SMAs to decending trend whilst 60-long SMAs remain strongly upward trend. For RSI perspective, indicator close at 33 figure as of writing, suggesting a bearish movement for short term. In the lights of the bleak suggestion from two indicator, we expect yen would continue toward to south territory. Therefore, first upon resistance set on 110 around, 110.35 and 110.85 behind, respectively.

Resistance: 110, 110.35, 110.85

Support: 109.45, 109.25, 108.37

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold has formly stood over the consolidation and toward to right shoulder of “W shape” pattern which is trading at 1743 as of writing. For RSI perspective, indicator held 69 figures, suggesting a bullish ahead. On the other hand, 15-long SMAs has golden cross over 60-long SMAs that both of them are turning to asceding trend. Therefore, we expect gold still have a pickup space pursuant RSI indicator which not approach the over bought area yet. Meanwhile, strong momentum of price average indicator shows vigorously signal. However, we foresee there have an one-month-long resistance on 1754.53. Once break the powerful resistance, we believe market will toward to higher stage.

Resistance: 1754.53

Support: 1737.7, 1722.76, 1678.85

Economic Data

Daily Position Report

Market Focus

US stocks climbed toward another record high after the economic recovery is being evidenced, thus gaining momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended

370 points to an all-record high; the S&P 500 climbed 1.4% while the Nasdaq rose 1.6% today. Investors pushed up the value of stocks after economic date highlighted accelerating growth as more Americans are vaccinated. Especially, US service providers has the fastest growth on record in March, boosting investors’ confidence on the economic recovery. In the meanwhile, speculators have shown the sign by pulling back their net short position in Cboe Volatility Index futures for six straight weeks to their lowest.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen planned to end Trump’s global retreat, restoring global leadership and credibility with US allies following the unilateralist approach of the Trump era and eyeing on a harmonized corporate tax rate across the world’s major economies. Yellen also criticized the strategy of Donald Trump’s administration, decrying four years when the US isolated itself by retreating from the international order.

UK Boris Johnson put hope on the resume of foreign travel on May 17. UK’s lockdown is being gradually eased, and people are now allowed to meet outside in groups of six. Boris Johnson also confirmed that some stores can open from April 12 as planned. As the vaccine rollouts become more efficient, and free rapid Covid tests become more available, UK is now in the stage of considering whether it should suspend its travel bans.

Tencent and Alibaba remain the benchmark for China tech stocks despite Beijing continues to ramp up regulatory pressure on its tech firms. Chinese State Administration for Market Regulation has fined more than 12 companies on the violation of anti- monopoly rules so far.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement:

Oil futures in New York dropped more than 4.5% today, sending prices to the lowest in more than a week. Oil prices plummeted as growing delays in Europe’s reopening and looming Iranian supply dampened hopes for a decline in global oil inventories. Moreover, investors eyed on the meeting in Vienna on Tuesday to discuss potentially resurrecting the agreement, a possible path toward removing sanctions on the Middle Eastern country’s oil exports.

Lonnie closed lower below 1.2550 even though oil prices dropped. The broad- based decline of the US dollar weighs on USD/CAD. With the US dollar facing a renewed selling pressure, however, the pair edged lower.

The British Pound reached three- week highs above 1.3900 against the US dollar. Pound self- strength coupled a weaker US dollar. As the UK is in a good shape in the battle against the Covid, GBPUSD sharped up today.

The second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has been acting strong recently on the news that Visa would be using the ETH network to settle cryptocurrency transaction, trading around $2117 as the time of writing. With ETH’s recent move, ETH finally breaks away from the tendency to track the price movements of Bitcoin. ETH is no longer playing second fiddle to Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD witnesses some postive move today, trading at 1.1809. The near- term picture is bullish, with scope for another leg higher. The pair is expected to climb toward 1.1855 where the horizontal line for the previous double tops formation. The bullish momentum in the near- term is supported by the RSI of 43, which is outside of the oversold condition, giving it more room to extend further north. In a bigger picture, EURUSD remains bearish as it continues to fall within the descending channel and trades below the 50 and 100 SMAs. On the upside, above 1.1855 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1945 resistance.

Resistance: 1.1855, 1.1945, 1.12349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290

GBPUSD (Four Hour Chart)

GBPUSD keeps up its bullish momentum, reaching three- week highs above 1.3900. On the four hour chart, the pair has surpassed the 100 SMA, heading to the next immediate resistance at 1.3926. However, the RSI indicator is currently within the overbought area, suggesting a pull back before continues GBPUSD’s bullish move. From the technical aspect, the pair is expected to trade in the range of 1.3877- 1.3926 during the time of an adjustment. After the RSI becomes less, the pair is expected to trade higher as the MACD remains positive.

Resistance: 1.3926, 1.4005

Support: 1.3877, 1.3838, 1.3798, 1.3749

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold has been choppy today, stucking within a $1720- $1730 price range for the most of the day. After trading in positive territory for two consecutive day, gold turns bearish, currently trading at $1726. To the downside, the resistance at 1746.91(Fib. Retracement 23.6%) seems to act as a cap for gold buyers; a sustained move under $1746.91 indicate the presence of sellers. If gold fails to challenge $17746.91 again, the possible acceletation to the downside with potential targets below $1676.89 can happen. In the meanwhile, the bullish signal on the MACD indictor is currently weak, implying a possibility of a bullsih- to- bearish trend.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

Economic Data

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