Gold prices experienced a modest bounce from the $3,120 area, the lowest since April 10, due to improving global risk sentiment and a slight dip in the US Dollar. However, a substantial recovery remains unlikely due to optimism from the de-escalation of the US-China trade war.

Traders have reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing as recession fears ease, leading to higher US Treasury yields, supporting the US Dollar and limiting Gold’s gains. The US Producer Price Index and Jerome Powell’s speech are anticipated for further direction on gold trades.

Gold Demand Dynamics

Though demand for Gold increases as a safe haven, optimism in US-Iran and US-China negotiations pressures Gold prices to one-month lows. Market participants now foresee a 50 basis points Fed rate cut this year, down from a full point previously expected, boosting 10-year US Treasury yields.

The technical outlook indicates a bearish trend after breaking below $3,200 and further Fibonacci retracement support, with potential for a decline toward $3,100. Resistance exists near $3,168-3,170, with further movement above $3,230 possibly triggering short-covering, pushing Gold toward $3,300.

Gold has been attempting to stabilise after dipping to $3,120—the weakest showing in over a month—though any sustained rally looks faint for now. That bounce, while notable on the hourly chart, came mostly on the back of softer US Dollar demand and reduced anxiety in broader financial markets. What underpinned that lighter mood was improved rhetoric around international negotiations, particularly between Washington and Beijing. The detente has cooled fears of deeper tariff disputes, which has naturally drained some of the demand from safe-haven assets like bullion.

From our view, the shift in expectations around central bank decision-making also plays a large role here. Traders now seem less convinced the Federal Reserve will move quickly on policy loosening. At one point, a full percentage point reduction was priced in for this year. Now, markets are adjusting to the idea of just 50 basis points—and that makes a considerable difference. It’s not just about the rate cuts themselves; the effect runs through bond markets, pushing up yields, which in turn offers more attractive returns in US-dollar denominated assets compared to non-yielding ones like gold.

Market Influences and Technical Indicators

It’s against this backdrop that we’ve seen 10-year Treasury yields touch higher levels again. This steady climb keeps a bid under the Dollar, which acts as a headwind for any asset priced in it. So far, that correlation has held quite well. Less need for financial protection, higher yields, and a bolstered greenback—all working in tandem to flatten the enthusiasm we might usually see for precious metals in uncertain times.

There’s also the matter of the data calendar. With the Producer Price Index due shortly, and the Federal Reserve Chair set to make remarks, we’re looking at possible market reshuffles. It’s not likely to overturn the bigger trend, but either surprise in inflation metrics or a shift in tone from Powell could realign rate cut timelines yet again. That’s where volatility may re-enter.

Technically, the bias still leans downward. The break under the $3,200 level and loss of support through the Fibonacci pivot points opened room for prices to test lower ranges. We would watch $3,100 with interest; it’s a round number and psychologically relevant. If sellers continue to press, there aren’t many firm levels between there and the next consolidation zones.

Any lift from here, particularly through the $3,168 to $3,170 region, could draw some of the shorter positions out of the market, triggering what’s effectively a short squeeze. If that occurs, we might see a run toward $3,300—but that route looks unlikely without broader catalyst support. Buyers would need not just technical momentum but also macro backing, perhaps in the form of renewed geopolitical flare-ups or reversal signals from the US central bank.

For active traders, managing exposure to directional bets in metals will rely not just on headline flows but underlying rate dynamics and bond performance as well. The clearer those signals become, the more likely we can lean into setups with confidence.

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The UK economy grew by 0.2% in March, surpassing the expected 0.0% growth, according to data from the Office for National Statistics as of 15 May 2025. This follows a prior increase of 0.5% in February.

Sector Performance Overview

Service sector growth reached 0.4%, above the anticipated 0.1%, with a previous rise of 0.3%. Industrial output fell by 0.7%, more than the predicted 0.5% decline, yet faced an earlier increase revised from 1.5% to 1.7%.

Manufacturing output dropped by 0.8%, exceeding the expected 0.5% decrease, following a previous increase revised from 2.2% to 2.4%. Conversely, construction output grew by 0.5%, outpacing the forecasted 0.1% rise, with a prior increase revised from 0.4% to 0.2%.

This monthly data positively influences perceptions of the UK economy’s first-quarter performance, with the quarterly report reflecting these improved estimates. The figures provide insight into economic trends across key sectors such as services, industry, and construction.

What the data tells us is that the UK economy has performed slightly better than many had forecast. A 0.2% monthly rise in March, although modest, came as a welcome surprise compared to the flat reading markets had been preparing for. When taken together with February’s upwardly revised growth of 0.5%, the picture becomes more supportive of a recovery that hadn’t fully been priced in at the start of the second quarter. That’s meaningful in our world, particularly when we consider expectations were more muted heading into this data release.

The services sector continues to carry most of the forward momentum. With output climbing by 0.4%—well ahead of forecasts—it’s clear that consumer-facing industries have held up strongly. Part of this strength is due to ongoing resilience in real household incomes and stronger-than-expected retail activity in early spring. Meanwhile, industrial production and manufacturing displayed sharper contractions than hoped, with the latter sliding by 0.8%. That sort of drop tells us demand for goods may still be lagging post-pandemic highs. Supply chains are no longer the bottleneck they once were, so the softness is less from disrupted inputs and more likely a function of cooling output demand at home or abroad.

Construction Activity and Future Considerations

Interestingly, while manufacturing has retreated, the construction sector posted better figures. A 0.5% monthly rise, against what was actually quite a tepid forecast, suggests that we’re seeing renewed activity in commercial and infrastructure projects. Housebuilding remains weighed down by elevated borrowing costs, yet higher public and private investment in large-scale developments likely explains the pick-up. That should be monitored carefully as it could inform broader patterns in fixed capital formation later this year.

Looking ahead, we’re not inclined to dismiss the slowing industrial output out of hand. Month-on-month readings in these segments often swing more heavily due to their volatile nature. But the deeper contraction than expected, after such a strong February, hints at the potential for more uneven contributions from industry in the near term. That’s especially relevant given how manufacturing makes up a smaller share of the economy but can materially shift short-term growth estimates when large moves are observed. It skews things at the margin.

The adjustments to previous months’ data—February’s industrial and manufacturing expansions revised up once again—also merit attention. They imply the economy had more momentum coming into March than originally captured. Revisions like these aren’t just cosmetic; they recalibrate our broader understanding of economic baselines. And for us, that alters how we approach short-duration rate-sensitive positions, as well as index futures pricing tied to GDP benchmarks.

Forward guidance becomes less certain when such divergences across sectors appear. With growth still supported largely by services and construction, but not industry, divergences in price action across asset classes tied to different sectors should begin to emerge. That’s not something to gloss over. During periods like this, movements in yield curves—particularly the front end—may decouple somewhat from macro sentiment if fixed asset weakness continues.

While quarter-on-quarter data will eventually smooth these monthly wobbles, the March figures introduce a level of directional clarity. At this stage, adjustments in macroeconomic models now lean toward upward revisions for Q1, which could bring forward shifts in expectations about interest rate decisions. The key thing is to model sectoral divergence rather than rely solely on the aggregated headline.

What needs consideration now is how consistent these service-driven gains will be through the second quarter, given how heavily they’ve supported the overall outturn so far. Weather and seasonal expenditure patterns could play a larger role than usual in next month’s prints, particularly in discretionary segments. That possibility should be factored in when adjusting for short-term expectations.

The higher-than-expected construction activity, though smaller in size, matters because it’s often a more reliable proxy for investment planning. For that reason, sensitivities in equity markets tied to engineering, materials, or logistics may still have more room to price in these subtle but persistent upside surprises. We should remain aware of how these softer indicators are feeding into real asset allocations.

Ultimately, while the headline GDP reading improved only modestly, the composition of the gains matters more. The structure is shifting. That tells us where elasticity lies in economic output—what is reacting, and what is not. And that’s the terrain we manoeuvre on.

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Electrovaya Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, falling short of the expected $0.03 per share. The company showed an improvement from a loss of $0.02 per share a year prior, with these figures adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarter reflected an earnings surprise of -33.33%. Previously, the company delivered a surprise of 50% by posting a loss of $0.01 per share against an expected loss of $0.02.

Revenues for the quarter ended March 2025 stood at $15.02 million, missing expectations by 7.10%, compared to $10.7 million last year. Electrovaya has not surpassed consensus revenue estimates over the last four quarters.

Since the start of the year, Electrovaya’s shares have risen by about 11.3%, compared to the S&P 500’s 0.1% gain. The future movement of the stock largely depends on management’s commentary regarding earnings and other outlooks.

The current consensus EPS estimate is projected at $0.04 with revenues of $18.69 million for the next quarter. For the current fiscal year, expectations stand at $0.10 EPS on revenues of $66.68 million.

The Zacks Industry Rank places Electronics – Miscellaneous Products in the lower 38% of all industries. This industry’s position may influence Electrovaya’s stock performance.

The numbers show a mixed but not entirely negative picture. Electrovaya turned a previous loss into a small profit, reaching $0.02 per share versus a loss of $0.02 in the same quarter last year. That pivot is notable. Still, even with that improvement, the market had expected $0.03—so we’re looking at a downside surprise of just over 33%. Not ideal, but not catastrophic either, considering the broader trend of narrowing losses.

On the revenue side, they pulled in $15.02 million, which marks a decent year-on-year gain from $10.7 million. However, that figure still fell short of the expected $16.17 million, bringing a miss of 7.10%. It’s the fourth straight quarter revenues have missed consensus estimates, which, over time, chips away at confidence. That compounding effect needs to be factored into short-term modelling, as it increases sensitivity to forward guidance and sentiment-based movement.

The share price tells its own story—up 11.3% year-to-date while the S&P 500 barely nudged higher. This outperformance suggests market participants may be focusing more on the shift from net loss to profit than on shortfalls versus estimates. But we’ve seen that kind of reaction reverse sharply when forward guidance doesn’t support the optimism. With management yet to clarify the path ahead, much depends on how the next earnings call calibrates expectations.

Analyst consensus looks to the future with some optimism—a forecast of $0.04 per share and revenue of $18.69 million for the next quarter. For the full year, markets are leaning towards $0.10 EPS and revenues of $66.68 million. Notably, whether these upward estimates can stick will hinge on whether the company can show it has plugged the revenue miss problem. For now, accuracy is going to matter more than acceleration.

The Zacks Industry Rank positions the sector in the lower third, which doesn’t do the stock any favours. This isn’t just a statistic—it reflects a broader weakness across comparable names. When timing trades or planning exposure, keep in mind that sector underperformance often drags on even solid names. That downward pull isn’t always explained by company fundamentals alone.

We’re seeing some traders treat the 11.3% gain as an early sign of strength. But it would be premature to act as if that movement guarantees momentum from here. Short-dated options volumes are likely to pick up as we approach the next earnings window, especially if implied volatility remains subdued. Spreads may offer more controlled exposure than naked calls or puts, given how sentiment could flip based on management tone or macro pressures.

Best to keep directional bias in check at this point. Instead, look for engagement near earnings dates, and monitor positioning shifts that may reflect early large-institution hedging. Volatility is likely to remain event-driven rather than trend-based unless the company clearly beats both EPS and revenue next time around.

A meeting took place on the sidelines involving US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, and China’s trade envoy, Li Chenggang. Both were attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference.

No additional information has been provided about the discussion. Since it is described as a brief conversation, it may not yield substantial outcomes.

The Implications of the Exchange

That short exchange, though probably unintended to be the main event, offers a sliver of insight into how backchannel diplomacy may still function between the two largest economies on the planet. Greer and Li speaking, even briefly, tells us something—not through what was said, but that it happened at all. The fact it took place during APEC, a setting loaded with commercial focus rather than political theatre, adds weight to the implication. These moments are not fixed parts of protocol; they are rarely accidental.

What it suggests, to us, is that informal contact persists, despite headlines often telling another story. We typically see friction between Washington and Beijing being reported in layers of tariffs, export controls, and technology bans. But these quieter instances—hushed words rather than formal communiqués—may indicate that decision-makers haven’t entirely closed the door. They still prefer, where possible, to feel the temperature before acting.

For us, monitoring the subtle activity around these summits can help map the mood more accurately than statements crafted for public reaction. In markets where perception can shape price direction, undercurrents in diplomacy are not something to be brushed aside.

Market Implications

Now, what this means in the current context is fairly direct. While the conversation was short, the timing and positioning matter. Commodities and macro-sensitive contracts need to be viewed through the lens of broader policy signals—not just data points or quarterly output. A casual chat has the capacity to dent expectations around, say, stimulus negotiations or export restrictions which can shift pricing in commodity-linked contracts or currency hedging strategies.

This is why we cannot afford to focus only on headline moves. Thinly-veiled policy shifts and offhand remarks—especially in forums that fly under the radar—offer more clarity than one might assume. The next few weeks are not about chasing after new yield curves or recalculating based purely on CPI. They are about watching for any further contact, intentional or otherwise, between key representatives with either commercial or regulatory sway.

Pricing behaviour in short-dated vol instruments might start to reflect an assumption that talks aren’t completely frozen, and policy risk is being reweighted. We’ve already begun to see subtle flattening in idiosyncratic risk premiums between Asian FX pairs and USD swaps, mirroring a reduction in perceived geopolitical volatility over the trading horizon.

Traders leaning too far into a single bias on the back of hawkish rhetoric alone should conduct immediate rebalancing. The truth rarely arrives in a press release; it’s the soft gestures in a corridor near a summit stage that often move the chains.

Those trading directional risk would be wise to limit exposure on open-ended macro bets. Focus instead on finely tuned plays tied to technicals that can trigger regardless of binary event outcomes. If these off-the-record talks do gain traction, we should expect changes to begin softly—through delivery volumes, PC component restrictions adjustments, or strategic reserve tap-ins rather than high-decibel government announcements.

There’s a narrow window now where vol strategies can be built around periods of calm that others may misread as stability. It’s not. It’s merely quiet—sort of like a pair of trade envoys crossing paths and choosing to speak, even if only for a moment.

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EUR/USD Range Projection

EUR/USD is projected to trade within a 1.11-1.15 range in the coming weeks and months, with intra-day resistance around 1.1265. Upcoming US data, including PPI and Retail Sales, could impact currency dynamics, as could comments from Fed Chair Powell.

The foreign exchange market involves substantial risks, including potential total loss of investment. It is essential for traders to conduct thorough research and understand the associated risks before making investment decisions.

EUR/USD appears to be taking a breather just below the 1.11 handle, with buyers stepping in around this level and suppressing any deeper downside attempts. This range-bound behaviour mirrors the muted tone in eurozone releases, especially with only final GDP figures on the docket this week. Investors aren’t necessarily reacting to domestic European data right now; instead, much of the movement is hinging on what’s coming out of the United States, both from official releases and policy signals.

Market Sentiment and Influence

The March Balance of Payments figures will be watched closely following the solid equity inflows in February. If we see this trend sustain, it would not only strengthen the case for favourable sentiment towards European assets but may also provide some tailwinds to the single currency. Any confirmation of sustained foreign investment would likely tie in with earlier survey data suggesting that capital flows are beginning to favour eurozone markets again. However, we’ll want multiple months of such evidence to consider the shift durable.

Price action seems to respect a medium-term band between 1.11 and 1.15, with intraday hurdles near 1.1265 – a level that could repeatedly cap upside attempts unless momentum broadens. This resistance level comes into sharp relief on days when US releases exceed consensus, especially on key inputs such as Producer Prices or Retail Sales. Those upcoming data points could add an edge to the greenback if inflationary pressures appear sticky or consumer demand remains robust, feeding into the idea that the Federal Reserve may remain cautious on cutting rates.

Powell’s upcoming appearance will also be closely monitored. Markets have become increasingly sensitive to any shift in tone, particularly regarding labour market tightness and price stability. Should Powell echo recent remarks about the Fed’s patience, or implicitly endorse higher-for-longer rate assumptions, traders could see dollar strength re-emerge, dragging EUR/USD towards the lower bound of its range.

From our seat, short-term positioning matters more in times of tight ranges. A single surprise print or slightly hawkish tone can trigger sharp but temporary moves, often exaggerated by the lack of strong conviction either way. As volatility stays muted, probabilities tilt towards range trading strategies, rather than directional bets. Clear technical levels, rather than speculative macro views, are driving entries and exits right now.

Risk appetite will also play a secondary role. Flows into equities, particularly tech-heavy indices in the US, can peel demand away from the dollar as a safe haven. But if US yields continue to grind higher or geopolitical headlines spook global markets, we might see another leg of dollar demand emerge quickly, even without fresh economic data.

The usual caution applies: leverage amplifies changes swiftly in this environment. Staying disciplined around defined stop levels and understanding the macro triggers that could break current ranges are key in the days ahead. For now, we remain alert rather than aggressive, letting price show its hand rather than trying to force a move in either direction.

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Overview of FX Option Expiries

The information presented outlines option expirations in major currency pairs, revealing specific price levels tied to contracts that traders may need to settle—either physically or through cash—at a precise time. These expiry levels can often act like magnets, drawing price action toward them, particularly if volumes are large and market momentum is lacking. Options can encourage price stickiness or even limit movements temporarily. The quoted expiry times correspond with the 10am New York cut, a point of maturity every weekday, widely followed due to its consistent sway on short-term positioning.

For the euro-dollar pair, there’s an expiry set at 1.1200. This falls just between two defined technical checkpoints—1.1249 on the upside and 1.1180 below. The proximity of the expiry to current trading levels amplifies its relevance. Volumes around these pricing points can tip the balance and draw in speculative flows or hedging adjustments. If movement pushes above 1.1249, we’d likely see option-related stops release, offering a glimpse of clean space until 1.1280. If markets reverse to breach 1.1180, downside encouragement could emerge, especially in light of data prints due later this week. Position management should remain tight, particularly around European hours.

In the Australian dollar pair, the 0.6475 expiry isn’t underpinned by any large technical relevance, yet it’s currently appearing as a ceiling of sorts. Even as traditional resistance lacks, option placements seem sufficient to discourage breakouts beyond 0.6500. The inability to remain bid above that round figure points to profit-taking and hesitancy among fast-money accounts. When we look further down, 0.6440 has provided decent support on dips. This rangebound trade may persist until fresh triggers—macro or policy-related—dislodge price action.

Analysis of New Zealand Dollar Expiry

For the New Zealand dollar, the situation is slightly different. The expiry sits right at 0.5880, matching the 200-day moving average. When such a confluence arises, we often see inertia; traders, particularly large funds, use these benchmarks to frame medium-term exposure. Prices have drifted into a tighter band, with a soft base near 0.5850. That level proved reliable last week and will likely underpin sentiment unless new developments unsettle early Asia sessions. Broader dollar direction remains the key compass here, with risk sensitivity acting as an echo factor. For now, deviations in volatility are being met with subdued participation, but that can change quickly around US inflation data later in the week.

From our perspective, the market tone over the next few sessions is likely to remain attentive to these expiry levels, not just for settlement but also because they influence hedging flows. We find ourselves favouring shorter tenors until clarity improves. Adjusting deltas carefully around expiries ensures alignment with prevailing narratives while keeping position risk within reasonable thresholds. Timing entries near defined option levels—especially when they cluster with moving averages or recent highs and lows—continues to provide asymmetric opportunities.

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A recent Reuters poll of economists conducted from 7 to 13 May shows that 59 out of 62 economists (95%) predict no change in interest rates during the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) June meeting. Additionally, 39 out of 58 economists (67%) expect rates to remain stable through the third quarter, up from 36 in the last poll.

Meanwhile, 30 of 58 economists (52%) forecast at least one more rate hike by the end of the year. The median prediction for the interest rate at the end of September has been adjusted to 0.50%, down from 0.75%, while the year-end rate expectation remains at 0.75%. Additionally, 55% of economists approve of Japan’s tariff negotiations with the US.

Market Sentiment And Expectations

In terms of market sentiment, traders currently assign a 98% probability to rates remaining unchanged in June. For the rest of the year, only about 17 basis points are anticipated for the December meeting, supporting the general expectations for rates to hold steady particularly through the third quarter.

The published forecasts from Reuters highlight a broad consensus: most participants seem confident that the Bank of Japan will hold steady in June. A full 95% expect no change, and two-thirds believe this pause in rates could persist through the third quarter. That shift from 36 to 39 economists compared to the last survey might look modest at a glance, but it’s enough to reinforce how firmly the sentiment is taking root.

There’s also an interesting shift in the expected path beyond that. Over half are now predicting at least one more rate hike before the year draws to a close. Notably, though, the bias appears softer—expectations for September were adjusted downwards, from 0.75% to 0.50%, even as the anticipated year-end level stayed put. That reduction suggests a delay, not necessarily a cancellation, in the direction some had mapped prior. The market itself reflects this—pricing in just 17 basis points by December. That’s really not much. So despite what might seem an upward tilt farther out, traders are not racing to front-run it.

With this in mind, we’ve adjusted our bias along the short end of the curve. There is less urgency to price in near-term hikes, especially given how heavily the odds weigh towards a pause next month. The 98% probability tells its own story—almost universal conviction. That narrows the opportunity window, meaning reactions to any deviance in BOJ rhetoric or macro data may come with oversized responses. We’ve scaled back more aggressive positions that leaned on immediate volatility.

Trade Dialogue And Market Alignment

Suzuki’s administration, meanwhile, has gained cautious support for its handling of trade dialogue with Washington. Just over half favoured the way these talks have gone. That figure offers context more than direction, but it feeds partially into the tone surrounding external pressure. There’s little appetite, as it stands, for anything that could force the hand of policymakers at home. That makes surprises—if they come—less likely to originate from an international flashpoint and more from domestic developments.

The downward revision in near-term rate expectations tells us something else too: markets are aligning with patience more than momentum. Technical levels around yen futures have started to reflect this cooling. Option skews have flattened. Call spreads pushing further out into the calendar are being unwound in stages. We’ve seen a similar narrative unfold across interest rate swaps—term premiums are softening, and carry plays leaning into stasis are returning in higher volumes.

The key, then, in our view has not been to chase direction but to manage timing. While the poll shows some expectation of movement by the end of the year, that conviction remains fragile. It’s enough to merit hedging exposure, but too low to justify large positioning.

We’ll be watching BOJ statements closely, but also secondary data—consumer prices, wage growth, and employment signposts—which could exert more pressure than before given how near-term expectations are now priced to deliver so little. Any upside surprise would create a ripple effect where even modest data movement could shift sentiment abruptly and rebuild premium along the OIS strip.

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Oil prices decreased sharply following comments from an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader suggesting willingness to agree on nuclear arms terms for sanction relief. Iran appears ready to sign a deal to eliminate nuclear weapons, reduce uranium stockpiles, and allow inspectors, conditional on lifting sanctions. Media reports indicate this readiness, impacting oil market dynamics.

Australian Employment Data

The Federal Reserve Chair is set to speak, influencing market anticipations. Australian data shows a strong employment rise of 89,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%. The participation rate reached a high of 67.1%, balancing employment shifts. Despite these positives, the Reserve Bank of Australia expects a 25bp rate cut.

US Treasury yields achieved a monthly high at 4.55%. European and Pacific currency pairs experienced modest increases, while USD/JPY and gold saw declines. Speculation persists regarding US economic growth, debt perspectives, and the impact of tariffs, following recent US tax policy adjustments. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty continues, affecting market predictions and investor behaviour.

That first statement about oil prices shifting due to geopolitical developments points to markets reacting immediately to possible increases in global supply. The suggestion that Iran may accept halting nuclear activity in return for sanction relief could eventually lead to more oil entering the market. That alone would contribute to weaker crude prices since traders anticipate improved supply conditions — not immediately, but over the coming horizon. The oil market tends to be highly forward-looking, pricing in events long before barrels are moved.

From our view, when state-level negotiators signal willingness to rein in enrichment operations, credibility of resupply grows. That becomes a pricing factor. Short-term futures and leveraged long positions in energy become exposed in such moments, which we observed through the sharp dip in crude. That dip was abrupt rather than staggered, which implies a considerable number of positions were crowded on the bullish side beforehand.

Reserve Chair Influence

Next, the Reserve Chair’s upcoming appearance is gaining attention. Despite broader uncertainty in domestic growth figures and shifting Treasury yields, there’s still a robust link between comments from central officials and implied rate expectations. One sharp phrase during remarks, especially if tied to inflation or quantitative tightening, can shift currency pairs quickly. So, even if broader market metrics look steady, it’s always worth remembering that fixed-income desks respond within minutes.

In Australia, the sharper-than-expected job creation figure — nearly 90,000 new positions — should not be ignored. That’s an unusually high figure for a country its size, and would usually point to a tightening labour market. But one would be mistaken to assume that automatically means rates rise. It’s the balance within those employment statistics that matters. The unchanged unemployment rate alongside a strong rise in participation paints a more complex picture. We interpret that as the economy being able to absorb new labour without placing too much stress on wages. That’s likely what informed local rate-setters in forecasting a 25bp easing, despite headline data coming in so strong.

In fixed-income terms, rising US Treasury yields — peaking at their highest in a month — suggest that traders are gradually leaning into recalibrated inflation expectations. There’s movement toward pricing in a higher-for-longer rate environment, though not dramatic. That 4.55% mark becomes a pressure point for yields across the curve. It’s forcing revaluations not only in government paper, but also in credit spreads and funding costs.

Currency pairs across Europe and the Pacific — moves were muted, but directional. The slight strengthening there indicates selective appetite for non-dollar holdings, possibly from macro funds adjusting hedges rather than large directional trades. USD/JPY falling in tandem with gold is suggestive of a controlled flow back into perceived safety assets — yen-based positions being unwound while bullion starts facing profit-taking or rotation into yield-bearing instruments.

The talk around tariffs and fiscal adjustments in the States also feeds into these patterns. More taxes now, or threats of them later, naturally causes bond desks to recalibrate future debt issuance and its associated cost to the Treasury. And that eventually seeps into the pricing of growth equities, sector rotation, and global money flows.

In short, moves we’ve seen are logical, traceable, and largely data-anchored — not noise. There is enough directionality in interest rates, energy futures, and FX pairs to construct reasonable short-tenor trades, particularly via options. Right now, the shape of the yield curve and volatility prices suggest an open opportunity in time-based spreads.

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Oil prices are under pressure again as traders react to shifting global dynamics, from renewed nuclear talks with Iran to growing concerns about the health of major economies. After a brief period of optimism, market sentiment has turned cautious, with geopolitical risks and central bank signals now shaping the outlook. This shift has prompted a closer look at both the technical and fundamental landscape driving oil’s next move.

Oil retreats amid nuclear deal speculation and macro headwinds

Oil prices tumbled on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shedding 2.13% to settle at USD 61.06 per barrel.

The downturn was largely driven by renewed speculation over a potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, which could pave the way for sanctions on Iranian oil exports to be eased—raising concerns over an increase in global supply.

This latest drop follows a brief rally sparked by a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, which had initially lifted hopes for a demand recovery. However, that optimism has quickly faded.

According to IG’s Tony Sycamore, the pullback feels like a “hangover after a massive party,” with traders becoming more cautious as broader economic risks come back into focus.

Sentiment was further hit by President Donald Trump’s comments on the US federal budget deficit and growing concerns about the sustainability of the country’s economic expansion.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a one-month high, heightening investor unease about rising borrowing costs and ballooning debt levels.

Equity markets also turned lower, amplifying the risk-off mood. Japan’s Nikkei slipped by 0.85%, and China’s CSI300 fell 0.63%.

European indices followed suit, while US futures pointed to a weaker open ahead of key retail sales figures and Walmart earnings—both considered indicators of consumer confidence and economic momentum.

Technical analysis: Oil under pressure, bearish trend intact

WTI crude continues to trade lower, with CL-OIL-ECN falling from USD 63.88 to a session low of USD 60.95 over the past two days—marking a decline of more than 4.5%.

Technical indicators remain bearish, with prices now firmly below the 5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages, signalling continued downward momentum.

Selling intensified after breaking below the key support level near USD 62.00, with only modest buying interest seen during minor rebound attempts.

The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, although histogram bars are showing signs of stabilisation, suggesting the downward momentum may be easing slightly.

However, without a decisive bullish crossover or a reclaim of the USD 61.50–62.00 zone, further losses remain likely. The path of least resistance still points lower in the near term.

Short-term outlook: Volatility expected as traders eye geopolitical developments

Crude oil is expected to remain volatile as markets digest ongoing geopolitical news and commentary from central banks.

A confirmed breakthrough in US–Iran negotiations could put further pressure on prices, potentially testing the USD 60.00 support zone.

Conversely, if talks stall or the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, a rebound toward the USD 62.50–63.00 range is possible.

Today’s US retail sales data and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the short-term trajectory of oil prices.

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Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance and product adjustment this weekend.

Maintenance Details: MT4 / MT5 – 17th of May 2025 (Saturday) 00:00 – 03:00 (GMT+3)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. During the maintenance hours, Client portal and VT Markets App will be unavailable, including managing trades, Deposit/Withdrawal and all the other functions will be limited.
2. During the maintenance hours, the price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. If you don’t want to hold any open positions during the maintenance, it is suggested to close the position in advance.
4. Following the maintenance, it is important to note that the latest version will be 4475. If your MT5 version is below 4410, it is suggested that you download the latest version on official website by navigating to “Trading” → “Platforms”→ “MetaTrader 5”.

Check your MT5 software version with the following steps:

※ PC: Open the MT5 software > Help > About;

※ Android: Open the MT5 app > About;

※ iOS: Open the MT5 app > Settings > Settings.

Please refer to MT4/MT5 for the latest update on the completion and market opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.