West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62, showing recovery after a brief decline. It received support at the $55 zone, forming a potential double-bottom structure on the daily chart. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, such as rising Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) output and possible Iranian oil return, continue to impact market sentiment.

OPEC+ Production Risks

OPEC+’s decision to raise production introduces risks to oil markets. Key members, like Saudi Arabia, are less inclined to bear production cut burdens, warning that the voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) reductions might end by Q4 2025 without improved quota discipline.

Progress on a United States-Iran nuclear deal is limiting oil’s rebound. Analysts anticipate the deal could reintroduce 800,000 bpd of Iranian oil supply, adding pressure to the market.

WTI remains above the $60 level, defending the $55 base, the lowest since 2021. The price has reclaimed the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.29, showing short-term bullish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.70, and the MACD histogram shows positive recovery signs, though challenges remain near the $65 resistance. Further movement depends on updates regarding Iran, OPEC+ policies, and macroeconomic data.

The current state of WTI crude, trading around $62 after bouncing off support at $55, offers several technical and fundamental talking points. That $55 level setup, which appears to be forming what’s known as a “double-bottom”, has historically been viewed as a reversal zone—a sort of last stand for the bulls. This pattern often marks exhaustion in selling pressure, meaning we may have witnessed the worst of the downside, at least in the near term. The fact that WTI has managed to trade back above its 21-day EMA and hover near $61.29 suggests that short-term momentum, while not overwhelming, leans positive.

Yet this technical resilience comes with some friction. The RSI sitting at 50.70, for example, doesn’t give much away in terms of conviction. It’s a neutral reading—neither stretched to the upside nor the downside. This leaves scope for movement in either direction. The MACD histogram’s return to positive territory adds to the case for short-term strength, but caution must prevail as long as the price remains capped below $65. That resistance, if tested again, will determine how strong the buyers really are.

Supply and Demand Tug of War

Now, on the broader picture—what we’re observing is essentially a tug-of-war between supply anticipation and technical demand signals. With OPEC+ pushing higher output volumes into the market, especially with less reliable coordination among members, there’s a built-in uncertainty around whether production cuts will hold. Riyadh’s openness about possibly ending the voluntary reductions unless others improve compliance only raises concerns over future cohesion within the alliance.

Throw into the mix the potential return of Iranian barrels—up to 800,000 per day if nuclear diplomacy sees progress—the market faces the reality of more oil chasing possibly stagnant demand. The capacity of Iran to ramp up production in a relatively short time could overwhelm current support levels, unless other producers scale back in response, which remains an open question.

From a trading standpoint, our immediate focus remains on the integrity of the $60–$55 support range. If these levels continue to hold despite increasing supply threats, then the price action will likely form a base that invites more participants to test resistance levels above $65. Volume confirmation and intraday volatility metrics will be especially telling here—if bullish flows intensify near $63–$64, it may create a pressure point on short positions.

Monitoring scheduled updates from international bodies and policy decisions—not only from oil-exporting nations but also from global central banks—will remain essential. Particular attention should be paid to inflation and GDP releases in major consuming economies, such as the US and China, as these will directly influence positioning ahead of key expiry cycles.

Looking ahead, gamma positioning and skew flattening should also be reviewed closely, especially as price approaches levels where options dealers may need to adjust deltas more aggressively. Increasing open interest in calls near $65 would suggest positioning for an upward breakout, whereas renewed put activity below $60 might signal bearish sentiment regaining traction.

We remain alert to any shifting tone from Vienna or Washington that might prompt a recalibration in directional bias. Price action close to headline releases or unexpected diplomatic developments will likely drive intraday volatility spikes, and those moments require clear levels, strict risk parameters, and scenario mapping pre-trade.

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In the markets, WTI crude oil increased by 88 cents to $62.50, US 10-year yields fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.43%, and gold declined by $46 to $3193. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, with the USD strengthening while the Swiss franc weakened.

Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics

The foreign exchange market was quiet until data indicated a rise in inflation expectations, altering market dynamics and affecting yields. The US dollar gained strength, pushing EUR/USD down to 1.1131 from 1.1200, while USD/JPY increased to 146.05 from 145.45. Although some sellers of the US dollar reemerged, their influence was limited. The trade war’s intensity appears to have subsided, contributing to quieter markets as President Trump visited the Middle East.

That latest consumer sentiment figure—50.8—was not just weaker than forecast, but rather close to historical troughs, which tells us that households are still expressing caution despite relatively strong labour figures and equity markets. It’s not just sentiment either. April’s housing starts missed by a narrower margin, yet the lower reading supports the notion that underlying domestic demand might not be as firm as some had hoped. Meanwhile, import prices ticking up slightly instead of falling, albeit modestly, complicates assumptions that imported disinflation is continuing without interruption.

In the context of global markets, Japan’s hesitancy regarding bilateral trade agreements reflected broader questions over transpacific economic cooperation—doubt that remains a background theme we must continue to monitor when weighing safe-haven positioning. Domestic policy cues added to the mixed signals. The tax measure defeat on Capitol Hill, for instance, whilst not drastically altering fiscal forecasts in the short term, does underscore the political difficulty of advancing supply-side reforms in an election year. It goes to credibility and what Washington can realistically push through next.

Energy watched on quietly as the US oil rig count shaved off one unit. Not dramatic, but it speaks to a levelling-off in exploration growth, possibly flinching at softer energy demand projections and thinner refining margins. Meanwhile, the Fed’s plan to trim its workforce by 10% over several years is, on the surface, an efficiency move. Operationally, though, it often coincides with a quieter forward path for balance sheet expansion and limited hiring, reinforcing the view that monetary policy may edge closer to neutral than the forward guidance has let on.

From a price-action perspective, the climb in WTI was measured, not euphoric. Short-covering and physical demand pockets likely explain much of the move to $62.50. On the longer end of the treasury curve, we saw yields dip a modest 2.3 basis points to 4.43%. That’s not an about-face, but it is enough to push some floating-rate exposure toward the sidelines for now. Gold, however, sold off in heavier fashion. The decline to $3193—down $46—analytically lines up with the dollar’s resurgence and the recovery in real yields. That’s left options traders starting to lean toward re-pricing skew lower in the metal’s vol curve.

US Equity and FX Markets

The S&P 500’s advance by 0.6% was steady, not frantic. Volumes remained thin, and the upside was led by rate-sensitive sectors, rather than cyclicals. As such, the rally felt defensive, despite the headline number. This dynamic mirrored broader support for the US dollar, which pushed EUR/USD toward the 1.1130 handle. That’s a sizeable retracement, especially considering the relative steadiness of eurozone fundamentals in recent weeks. USD/JPY, too, reached higher—146.05— as traders recalibrated their inflation views and added back carry.

What drove this shift was not a speech, nor a surprise central bank policy twist, but a quiet rise in US inflation expectations embedded in the TIPS market. This altered the arithmetic around breakevens and real yields, pressing traders to clear duration exposures faster in the belly of the curve. While some stepped in to fade the dollar’s move, reconciliations were brief and lacking follow-through. The bid for dollars held.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks lessened a touch. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing edged lower in rhetorical tone, and with Trump busy in the Middle East, the market felt less compelled to price in another headline disruption over tariffs or sanctions. For the near-term, volatility premiums compressed accordingly.

Going forward, we will cautiously engage year-end rate positioning, with a preference to scale into short-term vol where directional bias is backed by break points on key inflation indicators. Liquidity remains favourable, yet sentiment is delicate. Our desks should lean into price confirmation before adjusting exposure in rates and FX, especially as options remain underpriced relative to historical realised ranges.

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Gold prices decreased by over 1.50% following a US-China tariff agreement, directing capital towards risk assets. Despite slowing US Retail Sales and mixed housing data, inflation expectations stayed high.

Gold experienced a weekly decline as market sentiment improved, with the XAU/USD now trading at $3,187 from a daily high of $3,252. Economic data showed trade within the $3,120-$3,265 range, though momentum slowed toward week’s end.

US Consumer Sentiment Decline

Consumer sentiment in the US declined in May, reflected in survey data that showed rising inflation expectations. Despite mixed housing starts and import prices rising 0.1%, the Treasury yields recovered, bolstering the US Dollar.

Slower Retail Sales point to a deceleration in April. The Atlanta Fed’s projection suggests potential US growth at 2.4% for Q2 2025. Market focus will remain on Federal Reserve’s actions and upcoming economic events.

This week’s announcement of a 90-day US-China trade pause aims to end their trade dispute. The US 10-year Treasury yield stayed steady at 4.437%, with real yields at 2.0907%.

Overall, Gold price shifts are influenced by geopolitical and economic developments, inflation outlook, and currency movements. Central bank activities and interest rate expectations also impact its value significantly.

The Influence of Economic Indicators and Policy

When we look at what’s playing out in these updates, it’s clear that gold has lost some steam—closely tied to broader shifts in risk appetite and economic data from the United States. The metal dropped by over 1.5% shortly after news broke of a temporary trade pause between Washington and Beijing. That agreement, providing a little breathing room between the two countries, appears to have nudged traders toward equities and other riskier corners of the market, pulling money out of safe havens like gold.

We’ve also seen that although certain economic indicators in the US point to softness—most notably in Retail Sales and housing starts—inflation expectations haven’t budged much. That’s telling in itself. It shows that despite a slight slowdown in consumer activity, pricing pressures still linger in the background. Treasury yields responded with a mild recovery, especially on the longer end, with the benchmark 10-year holding above 4.4%. That stabilisation, coupled with firm real yields, lent support to the US dollar, diminishing gold’s appeal further.

The Federal Reserve’s influence in all this remains central. While no immediate policy moves have been made, expectations surrounding rate cuts have begun to fray slightly as inflation proves resistant. We observe that while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate holds at around 2.4% growth for the second quarter of next year, underlying data aren’t uniformly strong. April’s drop in Retail Sales, although not dramatic, hints at possible moderation in household spending, particularly if inflation sticks around longer than expected.

Last week, gold traded within a fairly well-defined corridor between $3,120 and $3,265. But we noticed that upward traction faded near the top of that range, and the metal has recently settled closer to $3,187—reflecting a cooler tone even as market sentiment improved elsewhere. That marks a noticeable pullback from earlier highs around $3,252, and price action shows limited momentum near short-term resistance.

We should also acknowledge that sentiment indicators have cooled. May’s consumer confidence metrics suggested increasing concern over rising living costs and future economic stability. That anxiety can be supportive for gold in the longer term, though it hasn’t translated into immediate demand.

Import prices rising by only 0.1% last month further complicate the inflation picture. This uptick, while modest, doesn’t present a convincing reason for the Fed to move aggressively on rates, leaving the door open to data-dependent decision-making in the months ahead. Still, the tone from policymakers has been cautious—watching jobs data, inflation prints, and, perhaps more importantly, inflation expectations.

As we approach the next batch of economic releases and updates from central banks, price fluctuations in metals will likely continue to hinge on Treasury yield behaviour and the strength or weakness of the dollar. We must also factor in geopolitical developments—not just agreements, but how firmly those agreements hold over time.

For now, the gold chart suggests traders have parked the metal in a neutral zone after failing to break above short-term highs. Volatility has retreated, but only temporarily. Any sharp move in upcoming inflation data or a stronger-than-expected jobs report could trigger renewed positioning. Similarly, if pricing pressures do begin to edge lower more convincingly, that could amplify bets on earlier rate cuts, which would, in turn, revive gold’s appeal.

Meanwhile, derivative markets may look to implied volatility and options skew for cues on where the market anticipates stress or opportunity. As always, risk exposure should be calibrated against macro data release times and potential policy recalibrations. The balance between inflation staying stubborn and growth cooling will likely remain the key axis of movement in the weeks ahead.

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The S&P 500 saw a steady rise throughout the week, supported by a reduction in US-China tariffs. The index managed to maintain an upward trajectory without any disruptions.

On Friday, stock market figures revealed gains across several indices. The S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite by 0.45%, the Russell 2000 by 0.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.7%, and the S&P TSX Composite by 0.3%.

Weekly Trends

For the entire week, the trends continued with the S&P 500 rising by 5.1%. The Nasdaq Composite saw a 7.0% increase, and the Russell 2000 grew by 4.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average encountered a minor setback with a 0.2% decrease. However, the S&P TSX Composite experienced a 2.4% gain over the week.

These figures point to fairly robust engagement in equities, particularly those with a more pronounced focus on growth. The bulk of the upward motion last week reflected broad institutional confidence in trade-related easing, notably the recent tariff shifts between the United States and China. This kind of data often triggers renewed buying interest, especially from participants who regard geopolitical progress as an early signal for margin-friendly conditions. It’s not just sentiment—it’s reaction to measurable change.

Cyclicals outperformed, particularly those tied to consumer demand and small-cap exposure. The Russell 2000’s advance was greater than that of its larger peers, and that often suggests increased appetite for risk. Larger multinational names, especially those with heavy overseas revenue, benefited from what appeared to be forex tailwinds at various points in the week. Balance sheet strength continues to matter less in the short term versus momentum and sector rotation.

During the week’s close, breadth remained supportive. Advancers outpaced decliners without heavy intraday pullbacks, indicating there wasn’t widespread hesitation even going into the weekend. That’s rare with mixed earnings outlooks on the horizon. Options flow helped to validate this. We witnessed call contracts being heavily favoured in large-cap tech, pushing short-dated implied volatility slightly above realised metrics in those instruments. That’s a very specific detail, but one that tells us speculative positioning is ongoing beneath what seems like quiet accumulation.

Powell’s earlier remarks on interest rates still weigh on bond-equity correlations, though their effect appears softened by tariff optimism. His prior tone struck markets as mildly accommodative, and that sentiment lingers. Yields remain under close watch. Thirty-year government bond pricing hints at uncertainty about how long the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance. Volatility in longer-dated futures didn’t spike to uncomfortable levels, but the curve remains tightly clustered around the near-term midpoint, which implies potential for sudden repricing if fresh data wavers. We’ve used that as a gauge for option gamma trend shifts before.

Market Strategies

Traders who rely on volatility structures would have noticed the reduced skew on indexes, further indicating a muted perception of downside risk in the shorter term. But that’s not to suggest protection selling is the optimal course. Rather, it’s a window to reassess exposure to convexity—particularly when event risk is compressed into Fed commentary expected within days. There’s little margin for error if sentiment breaks due to unfavourable jobless claims or surprise inflation pressures.

We don’t lean too hard on seasonal directionality, but patterns do suggest this stage of the year often allows for tighter trading ranges—until one catalyst breaks expectations. Macro hedge funds appear to be staying light, avoiding fixed directional exposure now that most of the good news has been priced in. That opens avenues for smaller volatility spikes to have outsized impact on positioning. At the same time, equity volatility remains low across benchmarks, and that provides opportunities to construct asymmetrical payoffs using shorter duration spreads with controlled debit.

One can also interpret Friday’s price action as a test of conviction. After a sharp week of gains, markets showed no knee-jerk reversal in after-hours futures or overseas index movement. That matters. It gives market participants a line in the sand—a rough measure of where dip-buying begins if we do encounter a retracement ahead of the next CPI release.

As a group, we’re planning for range-bound trading through the immediate term, but staying responsive. Elevated realised correlations last week show that basket trades are still in vogue and could remain sensitive to tech earnings in particular. Probability-weighted setups involving paired long and short optionality could help soften potential whiplash. And it wouldn’t hurt to widen hedges late in the session on key economic days.

At the moment, all eyes will naturally turn to incoming PCE data and whether disinflationary signs continue. But the earlier reaction to softer growth metrics shows participants are willing to overlook short-term weakness if broader political and trade signals trend positively. That sets up an environment where short gamma exposure could be punished rapidly if complacency creeps in.

Keep contract positioning nimble. The cost of misreading the next set of data surprises could outweigh the benefits of maintaining static outlooks.

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USD/JPY Movement

Recent data from the United States revealed a drop in consumer sentiment but an unexpected rise in short-term inflation expectations. Consumers now foresee an inflation rate increase of 7.3% over the next year, highlighting ongoing cost-of-living pressures in the US.

While the Yen usually appreciates during global uncertainty, its long-term strength is challenged by weak domestic data. If Japan’s situation worsens and inflation diminishes, the Yen might face further selling, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance.

Currency Heat Map

The provided analysis suggests movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate are being influenced by two separate themes: weaker-than-expected economic data in Japan and increasing inflation expectations in the United States. On the surface, the 0.22% uptick in the currency pair might seem relatively modest, but given recent volatility, it reveals just enough to hint at deeper directional forces that could begin to dominate the narrative over the coming sessions.

Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, with figures down 0.2% from the previous quarter and 0.7% compared to the year prior. That marks a fundamental turning point after a year of modest growth, and it corresponds with known soft spots in consumer behaviour and external trade – both of which underpin broader central bank hesitation. For us, the softer data creates an environment where speculating on changes in Japanese yields will likely prove premature.

From the Federal Reserve’s side, what stands out isn’t just the natural attention paid to interest policy, but the short-term jump in expected inflation from consumers, now up to 7.3%. That’s not a level policymakers will ignore, but more importantly – any fresh confirmation of price stickiness, whether from survey data or CPI components, could be enough to halt talk of rate adjustments in the near term. We don’t anticipate swift shifts, but markets will tighten their focus on comments set for Monday.

This paired divergence – soft Japanese indicators versus sticky American inflation – adds a compelling directional bias. The Yen, often regarded as a defensive holding when volatility spikes globally, remains exposed to further downside if domestic confidence doesn’t hold. Considering how far inflation in Japan has slowed without any real pressure for the Bank of Japan to act, defensive long positions are no longer offering the protection they once did.

Looking beyond USD/JPY alone, the broader currency picture shows the US Dollar posting its largest relative strength advance against the Swiss Franc. That adds some colour to Friday’s price action, suggesting demand for Dollars isn’t restricted to a Yen story but carries a bit of systemic firmness as well. From our side, watching the spread between inflation expectations and yield curves should help clarify whether that momentum has room to extend.

Immediate attention should turn to how Monday’s Fed communication might shift implied volatility. The patience level of rate traders will be tested closely if headline inflation ticks higher while Japan remains in contraction.

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The US and EU have initiated trade discussions, focusing on tariffs, digital trade, and investment. Reports suggest that USTR Greer has mentioned the possibility of reinstating 20% tariffs on the EU.

The negotiations are anticipated to be complex, as European leaders have rejected a 10% threshold similar to the deal the UK accepted. Talks this week also involved potential agreements with Japan and South Korea, but it is reported that Japan has withdrawn.

EU Meeting Plans

The EU trade commissioner had a conversation with Greer and expressed a desire to hold a meeting next month in Paris. The outcome of these talks remains uncertain, reflecting the current dynamics between these global entities.

The article outlines a fresh chapter in talks between the United States and the European Union, with tariffs, digital regulations, and cross-border investments at the centre of the agenda. Greer, the US Trade Representative, has floated the idea of bringing back tariffs of up to 20% on EU goods, a clear shift in stance that reopens a debate most had assumed was closed. European leaders have already knocked back a 10% ceiling—something the UK previously accepted as part of their own trade arrangements—indicating they’re not interested in making concessions on those terms.

This week’s discussions expanded beyond Europe, drawing in South Korea and Japan as part of a broader strategy. Japan, however, appears to have chosen to stay out, potentially due to dissatisfaction with the terms being floated or a preference to wait until dealings with the US stabilise. The EU’s trade commissioner followed up with an invitation to meet again next month in Paris, but no commitments have been confirmed, leaving several threads unresolved.

Trade Talks and Market Implications

For those of us who look closer at price reactions and volatility expectations, the direction of these talks offers something more direct. What’s at play isn’t just bureaucracy or headline drama—it’s clarity on whether tariffs will spike again, and that matters for everything from forward curves to implied volatility. If Greer pushes forward with the higher tariff rate, it could reprice multiple sectors almost overnight, triggering repricing across correlated asset classes. Our immediate concern isn’t the politics—it’s whether we can anticipate direction from noise, as that’s going to dictate value in positions that stretch beyond a few days.

The rejection of a 10% threshold by European representatives tells us there’s little appetite for compromise based on pre-existing models. They’re writing their own version of the deal this time, and if the US decides to escalate, we may see retaliatory measures that add further constraints on both currency movement and sector-specific exposure. For instruments tied to international trade or export-heavy equities, we would expect positions to be tested broadly across implied levels, with higher premiums currently building in the front end.

With Japan stepping back, the probability of a trilateral deal dries up. That removes potential hedging options in East Asia that might have balanced exposure. It also narrows the field for derivative participants who tend to use regional stability as a signal for basis movement. If these negotiations extend into next month without resolution, there is a real chance implied rates will rise further due to uncertainty alone.

From our view, the coming weeks should be used not to chase moves but to observe which parties are most likely to make binding commitments. That, in turn, guides which legs of the curve carry weight. Spread sensitivities will shift depending on what’s said behind closed doors in Paris. The trades that make sense now are those that are lean on assumption and heavy on protection.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the Dollar against six other currencies, is trading slightly higher at around 101.00. This follows mixed economic data from the US and a decline in consumer sentiment, which hit 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, its lowest since June 2022. Inflation expectations increased, with the 1-year rising to 7.3% and the 5-year to 4.6%.

Recent US data revealed a surprise decline in April’s Producer Price Index and a minimal increase of 0.1% in Retail Sales. President Trump’s announcement of upcoming unilateral tariffs creates concerns over trade flow. Market predictions indicate a 51.1% chance of a rate cut by September, with more cuts expected through 2026. The DXY maintains gains within a range of 100.52 and 101.14.

Indicators Of Market Momentum

Indicators like the Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence depict neutral momentum with a slight bullish tone. The Dollar is the world’s most traded currency, responsible for over 88% of all foreign exchange turnover. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, including interest rate adjustments, plays a major role in determining its value. Quantitative easing and tightening are influential practices of the Federal Reserve.

The dollar index holds modest gains amidst a broad mix of uncertain data from across the Atlantic. While holding above the key 101.00 level, its movement looks tightly bound within a narrow band—for now. The sentiment figures from May, nosediving to levels not seen since mid-2022, point to fading consumer confidence. That’s not a positive beacon for economic momentum, especially when spending continues to show fatigue. A mere 0.1% uptick in April’s retail activity confirms we’re not looking at a revival just yet. Add to that a soft patch in producer inflation, and the picture begins to lean more towards stagnation than overheating.

In tandem, inflation expectations—both short and medium-term—have been climbing. A spike in one-year expectations to 7.3% and five-year to 4.6% might not yet ring alarm bells at the central bank, but it’s hardly the disinflation story markets had priced in. That tug-of-war is visible in rate futures: market participants are split on when policy might ease, with just over half anticipating the first cut by September. That’s not comforting for momentum-based strategies. Expectations now stretch into 2026 with a fuller easing cycle priced in.

Trade Policy Risks

Then there’s the added layer of policy risk. The hints of trade disruption via renewed tariff chatter unsettles assumptions on price stability and supply routes. Such policies often deliver a delayed pulse into the consumer price index while muddying the waters for large capital shifts.

From an indicator viewpoint, we see the medium-term technicals echo the pricing hesitation. RSI readings are not showing strong divergence from neutral lines, and MACD has lost most of its conviction. That usually suggests a lack of clear strength or weakness—useful for identifying the absence of trend, though less handy for directional bets. However, the slight upward lean tells us the market isn’t rushing to abandon the dollar just yet. It appears to be watching more than acting.

Currency risk remains heavily dictated by forward guidance and rate expectations, especially in derivatives. With daily fluctuations being more reactive than predictive, patience may prove more effective than impulse. The information at hand leans towards a waiting game. Watching the shifting odds of policy announcements—both scheduled and unscheduled—may provide more edge than leaning into price action too early. Any firm directional exposure likely needs to coincide with confirmatory economic prints, particularly in inflation and spending wages.

The Fed holds immense influence and continues to walk a narrow line dictated by data and market response. Its toolkit of rate changes and liquidity control narrows the room for surprise. This means moves in the dollar may be sharper once directional changes are signaled since the current consolidation compresses expectations.

We continue to monitor spreads and cross-currency flows with attention given to widening policy divergence. When other central banks ease faster or slower, the dollar’s strength gets tested. But with data ambivalent, for now it’s about aligning strategy with the evidence—not assumptions.

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April’s Consumer Price Index Release

Canada observes a holiday on Monday, with markets closed for Victoria Day. The Bank of Canada is set to decide on interest rates on June 4, with various economic data influencing these decisions.

On Tuesday, April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are released. The headline month-on-month CPI is projected to be -0.2%, down from +0.3% previously. Year-on-year, the headline CPI is expected at 1.6%, with core measures stable at 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. There’s currently a 64% probability that rates will be reduced by 25 basis points.

Wednesday features a Government of Canada auction reopening for C$3 billion of 30-year bonds. Thursday sees April’s producer price index updates, with prior figures at +0.5% for industrial product prices and -1.0% for raw materials. A speech by BoC Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle might influence June’s rate decisions.

Friday concludes with March retail sales data, with a projected headline month-on-month change of -0.3%, improving from -0.4% previously. There is no consensus yet for sales excluding autos, which previously posted a +0.5% increase. The USD/CAD exchange rate is likely to close the week just below 1.40.

What we’re seeing now is a clear lowering of temperature across several indicators. Inflation pressures at the consumer level continue to cool. The drop in April’s headline CPI, if confirmed at -0.2% month-on-month, would be the softest reading since the pandemic distortions of 2020. Year-on-year inflation drifting down to 1.6% brings the figure much below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, though the core measures holding near 2.9% suggest some resilience in stickier categories like services and shelter.

Market And Inflation Trends

With the overnight rate still quite restrictive, the bar for keeping rates steady grows higher by the week. The market’s 64% likelihood of a cut in early June now rests on firm footing. Unless CPI or Friday’s retail sales dramatically outperform expectations, that probability may stretch closer to certainty. The comments from Gravelle could sway the tone, but the data are doing most of the heavy lifting now.

The bond auction midweek gives us thirty-year pricing under shifting expectations. Look for long-end yields to show more sensitivity to rate path speculation than short tenors. Should CPI disappoint or retail sales come in below zero again, the curve may steepen a bit as markets price in faster easing.

Price action in the CAD tells us the story clearly—hovering near 1.40 means traders are adjusting toward a softer domestic economy. Local demand is waning, and households are pulling back. The high-for-longer stance once deemed necessary to anchor inflation no longer appears justified if trends continue.

Producer prices, coming on Thursday, might not attract headlines, but they’ll matter more than usual. Industrial product inflation cooling beneath the current +0.5% would reinforce a deflationary tilt in manufacturing and pricing chains. For those positioned on medium-dated vol, shifts in input cost expectations could start nudging forward inflation forecasts.

We should prepare for increased rate sensitivity through early June. Any deviations from forecasts, particularly on Tuesday or Friday, will drive USD/CAD positioning and fixed income volatility. We are likely to see activity pick up in the risk reversal space given the binary feel of the rate cut odds. Adjustments around skew and term structure seem worth exploring as the bank approaches a turning point.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached new weekly highs despite a drop in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to 50.8 from 52.2. Consumer inflation expectations also grew, with 1-year and 5-year predictions increasing to 7.3% and 4.6%, respectively.

Concerns about tariffs have influenced consumer outlooks, increasing the risk of “profit-led inflation.” Recent US inflation data was better than expected, but the impact of tariffs remains a concern, with the Effective Tariff Rate jumping to 13% from 2.5%. The rate specifically on China is over 30%.

Market Response to Policy Changes

The Trump administration often proposes drastic policy changes with later reversals. A budget bill was recently rejected in Congress, impacting spending plans and drawing expected criticism from President Trump. The DJIA has rebounded to 42,500, recovering from a dip to 36,600, driven by easing trade concerns.

Bullish market trends pushed the DJIA above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at 41,500, gaining 16.25%. The DJIA, a price-weighted index of 30 major US stocks, is influenced by macroeconomic data, interest rates, and inflation. Dow Theory considers both the DJIA and the Dow Jones Transportation Average to gauge market trends.

Despite a sharp dip in consumer sentiment—now resting at a low 50.8 after coming in at 52.2 previously—the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) managed to climb to new weekly highs. At face value, this seems contradictory. Dig a bit deeper and the story begins to make more sense. Market euphoria often momentarily discounts pessimism if broader economic indicators or expectations around central bank policy shift favourably.

Direct inflation expectations from consumers are up once again. The 1-year horizon now sits at 7.3%, while the 5-year is up to 4.6%. These are not minor upticks to glance past. Pricing pressures are sticking well above what policymakers might be comfortable with. While inflation figures have surprised to the downside recently—which partially buoyed equities—this needs to be put in context. Tariff-related costs are beginning to resurface in a more material way, and that has the potential to strain margins.

The Effective Tariff Rate stands at 13%, a fivefold rise from its earlier level of 2.5%, and if we take a closer look at specific China-linked tariffs, we’re seeing figures north of 30%. These are not just political levers; they feed directly into corporate cost structures. While short-term data may show resilience, this sort of sustained cost pressure tends to filter down across multiple earnings cycles.

Impact of Dow Theory on Market Trends

A level of policy unpredictability has crept back into the discussion. Historical patterns, especially from the previous administration, show a tendency for bold policy pronouncements that are later watered down or retracted. The recent rejection of a budget proposal in Congress follows this trend. What matters more to us are the implications this has on expected fiscal spending, especially with ongoing inflation pressures. Without clear guidance on where the money flows, corporate earnings projections become less anchored.

Technically, the DJIA has done well to crack above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, which was sitting at 41,500. That level often acts as a barometer for broader trend sentiment, and a sustained close above it typically suggests investors are willing to take on equity risk. Recovering from a low of 36,600 to 42,500 marks a 16.25% climb—not exactly an opportunistic entry point for momentum-based setups, but not one to fade blindly either.

The Dow Jones, composed of 30 large-cap US companies, is priced to reflect movements in key sectors. It operates as a price-weighted index, meaning high-priced shares can skew its movement more than others. As such, it’s sensitive not just to underlying economic data but to how markets interpret positioning relative to interest rates and inflation projections.

Dow Theory, which we continue to keep an eye on, suggests that any strength in the industrial index should be confirmed by movement in the transport index. Disparities between the two sometimes act as early warnings, particularly during tapering cycles. If transports cannot maintain the momentum seen in industrials, that disconnect may indicate future trouble beneath the surface.

We’ll want to see how rates respond to unpredictable fiscal moves and whether the existing elevation in tariff pressure spills over into producer-level inflation metrics. For now, volatility in rate expectations is the more tradeable element, even if the broader index paints a picture of risk appetite returning.

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The week has been positive for stock markets amidst the easing of US-China tensions. The S&P 500 has reached a new session high, rising by 33 points or 0.6%.

Later in the week, trading volumes have decreased, yet the momentum in trades persists. The trajectory suggests there is little obstructing a return to February’s highs.

Additionally, the AI sector is experiencing a revival in trade activity.

Investor Confidence Increases

What we’ve seen so far this week is a boost in investor confidence, largely stemming from the moderation in political friction between the two largest economies. Equity indices have responded with upward movement, not least the S&P 500, which climbed steadily through the session. A 0.6% rise at this point in the cycle is not groundbreaking by itself, but when paired with the wider market sentiment, it gives us a fairly clear read on risk appetite.

The diminishing of trade volumes later in the week is fairly typical for this time of year, especially ahead of earnings seasons or major macroeconomic releases. Low volumes can exaggerate price moves, usually making patterns less reliable, but interestingly, the market’s upward bias remained intact. That’s something we watch carefully — the difference between a pullback due to weak participation and one sparked by fading conviction.

Then there’s the renewed activity in artificial intelligence-related stocks. What had been an overstretched part of the equity market earlier this year is now drawing fresh interest. Part of that probably comes from the latest round of corporate updates, which hinted at stronger development along product lines tied to machine learning applications. While valuations may not make sense when viewed through a traditional lens, price action suggests the appetite for tech-focused bets hasn’t cooled for long.

Market Positioning And Volatility

From our perspective, these developments are not isolated. Until recently, we’d seen mixed signals across asset classes — defensive sectors rising alongside cyclicals, and macro data providing conflicting indications. However, this week offers something clearer: a reassertion of positioning favouring growth, albeit cautiously.

Looking at implied volatility, we noticed it hasn’t spiked in response to positioning shifts, which implies that the market isn’t pricing in unexpected shocks in the very short term. From a tactical standpoint, that provides an advantage when deploying directional positions. Straddles, for example, may be less attractive in the immediate term due to compressed premiums. One may consider calendar spreads or other strategies that benefit from divergence between realised and implied readings over time.

Powell’s comments earlier in the week were measured, but they offered just enough assurance that policy may not tighten further in the near term — and that, in turn, removed an overhang for assets sensitive to rate movement. It’s telling that yields retreated even without a formal shift in stance. Sometimes the absence of tightening can act like easing.

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