Gold is trading between $3,990 to $4,020, having slipped below the psychological $4,000 level in the face of a volatile macro backdrop. While the metal remains a preferred safe-haven asset, its momentum is being tested by rising U.S. yields and mixed economic signals. For gold, higher yields mean increased opportunity cost, and that weighs on the short-term sentiment of the yellow metal.

Safe-Haven Appeal vs Yield Pressure

The long-term narrative of gold remains intact, be it as a hedge against inflation, currency volatility or geopolitical risk. But in the short term, the rising U.S. yields are creating friction. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.50%, and while the Fed is expected to cut rates soon, the dollar remains firm, a reflection of market confidence in U.S. economic resilience.

Such a dynamic has led to a tactical pullback in gold, even as broader risk sentiment remains fragile. Markets are now watching for signs of renewed safe-haven flows, especially if macro uncertainty intensifies or if the Fed signals a more dovish pivot.

Technical Setup: Support Zone in Focus for Gold

Gold is currently testing a key support zone near $3,973, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this could trigger a deeper correction toward the $3,900–$3,847 zone, while a move above the $4,050–$4,100 zone would signal bullish continuation.

• Support: $3,973 as the key Fibonacci pivot, followed by $3,900 as the structural buffer and $3,847 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement
• Resistance: $4,150, followed by $4,200 and beyond if breakout occurs
• Bullish Setup: Long if price holds near the $3,973–$4,000 zone and shows reversal signs, or breaks above $4,050. Target $4,150 and beyond $4,200.
• Bearish Setup: Short or hedge if price breaks below $3,973 with momentum. Target $3,900 and $3,847.
• Range Play: Trade between $3,973 and $4,050 with tight stops until breakout or breakdown confirms direction.

Role as Safe-Haven Asset Remains Resilient

Despite short-term headwinds from rising yields, gold continues to serve as a strategic hedge. If macro uncertainty escalates or the Fed pivots more dovishly, safe-haven demand could return swiftly, which is expected to push XAUUSD back toward $4,200 and beyond. For now, traders should monitor price action around the $3,973 support zone and stay alert to policy signals and risk sentiment shifts.

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The euro continues to struggle against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD trading near 1.1550 after breaking below a key support zone. The pair is now exposed to further downside as macro fundamentals increasingly favor the dollar.

Dollar Strength and Eurozone Fragility

The U.S. dollar remains firm, supported by rising Treasury yields and resilient economic data. The 10-year yield has climbed back above 4.50%, driven by strong labor market indicators and persistent inflation. While markets still expect a Fed rate cut later this quarter, recent comments from Chair Powell suggest a cautious approach, reinforcing the dollar’s appeal.

In contrast, the eurozone is grappling with a slowdown. Manufacturing activity continues to contract, and Germany reported a 1.3% drop in industrial production last month. Inflation is easing faster than expected, which has reduced the likelihood of further tightening from the European Central Bank. Without a clear stimulus path, the euro lacks both yield support and growth momentum.

Capital flows are also favoring the dollar, as the imbalance between the two economies and their respective monetary paths continued to grow. With the euro offering no special edge, EURUSD remains vulnerable to further declines unless eurozone data surprises to the upside or the Fed pivots more dovishly.

Technical Setup: Breakdown Below Critical Support in Play

EUR/USD is trading below the key support zone between 1.1540 to 1.1550, with technical momentum favoring the bears.

• Support: 1.1540 to 1.1550, with 1.1390 as the next structural level and 1.1250 as the deeper downside target
• Resistance: 1.1670 to 1.1727 as reversal threshold, with 1.1778 and 1.1917 as upside targets if breakout occurs
• Bearish Bias: Short below 1.1540 with momentum, targetting 1.1390 and 1.1250 with stop-loss above 1.1600.
• Bullish Setup: Long only if price breaks and closes above 1.1670 to 1.1727, targetting 1.1778 and 1.1917.
• Range Play: Trade between 1.1550 and 1.1727 with tight stops. Flip bias on breakout or breakdown.

Downside Risks Dominate for EURUSD

With eurozone fundamentals deteriorating and U.S. yields rising, EURUSD is likely to remain under pressure unless eurozone data improves or the Fed signals a more dovish pivot. A confirmed break below 1.1540 could open the door to 1.1390 and 1.1250. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. labor and inflation data, as well as ECB commentary, for signs of a potential shift.

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OKB (OKBUSD) opens the week near $165, but the tone across crypto markets has shifted sharply bearish. With Bitcoin and Ethereum both breaking critical support levels, altcoins are facing renewed selling pressure, and exchange tokens like OKB are not immune. While the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term momentum is now vulnerable to broader market weakness and fading risk appetite.

Exchange Utility vs Market Risk-Off

The price behavior of OKB is shaped by more than just technicals. This week, macro headwinds are taking center stage:

• Crypto Sentiment Turns Risk-Off: BTC and ETH breakdowns have triggered a wave of defensive positioning. Traders are rotating out of altcoins and into stablecoins or sidelining capital, reducing demand for exchange tokens.
• Altcoin Rotation Paused: With Jerome Powell’s speech from late October, the anticipated altcoin season is on hold. OKB may struggle to attract flows until broader sentiment improves.
• Exchange Utility Still Intact: Despite the pullback, OKX continues to expand its ecosystem. OKB’s role in fee discounts, staking, and launchpad access remains a long-term value driver — but short-term price action is now decoupled from fundamentals.
• Adoption Headlines Could Help: Any surprise announcements from OKX such as regional expansion, new product launches, or token burns could help stabilise sentiment and support the price level of OKB.

OKB Technical Setup: Support Zones in Focus

While OKB remains in a bullish structure on higher timeframes, the current pullback demands caution. Price is hovering near key support, and a breakdown could accelerate losses.

• Support: $150 to $160, with $140 to $150 as deeper buffer and $130 to $140 if correction intensifies
• Resistance: $180 and $200 and beyond if sentiment recovers
• Bearish Setup: Short or hedge if price breaks below $150 with volume, targetting $140 or lower. Use stops above $160.
• Bullish Setup: Only consider long if price reclaims $170 with momentum and broader market support. Target $180 to $200 and beyond.
• Range Play: If price stabilises between $150 and $180, trade the range cautiously with tight stops. Flip bias on breakout or breakdown.

Defensive Positioning Until Sentiment Shifts

With BTC and ETH losing key levels, altcoins like OKB are likely to remain under pressure. Traders should monitor support zones closely and wait for signs of stabilization before re-entering. Exchange utility and adoption headlines may offer relief, but for now, risk management and tactical discipline are key.

While the long-term trend is intact for OKB and the crypto market as a whole, the short-term momentum has turned fragile. Watch for the $150 support and broader crypto sentiment to guide positioning.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

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Markets face a week of hesitation rather than conviction. The message from the Federal Reserve in late-October has changed the tone: A December rate cut is no longer a certainty. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that policy will depend on incoming data, yet a federal government shutdown means much of that data may not even be arriving. Without clear visibility, the Fed is “driving in fog”, and traders are reassessing how quickly easing might resume. This leads to a conflicted dollar, cautious equities, and traders leaning toward safety until the fog clears.

The Fog Before the Cut

Before the October FOMC meeting, futures markets were nearly unanimous in expecting a December rate cut. But after Powell’s remarks, the mood flipped. The CME FedWatch tool shows cut odds plunging from roughly 90% to 63%, while Polymarket odds echo a 66% probability of a quarter-point cut and 32% chance of no change.

In other words, the market still expects easing, but no longer trusts it.

This shift stems from Powell’s emphasis on divided policymaker views and the data blackout caused by the federal shutdown.

With no fresh economic numbers, policymakers are flying blind, and traders are hedging both sides of the trade. Volatility pricing suggests markets are preparing for a slower, messier glidepath into December rather than a clean rate-cut narrative.

Inflation Cools, but Fed is still Hesitant

Inflation is cooling “like a rock”, yet the Fed remains wary of cutting too soon and risking a rebound.

The September CPI rose 3.0% y/y, up slightly from 2.9% due to energy prices, yet the underlying picture looks softer:

• Core CPI held steady at 0.3% m/m, consistent with a gradual slowdown.
• The shelter component, which is the single biggest driver of inflation, felll to 0.16% m/m, the lowest in over a year.
• More than 51% of CPI components are now deflating from their peaks, compared with a long-term average of 32%.

All suggesting that the fight against inflation is largely won, although Fed staff still projects core PCE to end the year near 3%. Markets reacted as the overall tone of price pressures has turned decisively lower.

• Equities pulled back from recent highs as traders priced in fewer cuts and slower growth.
• The US Dollar Index (USDX) rebounded toward the 99.00–100.00 zone, reflecting a defensive bias.
• Gold stalled near $4,070, trapped between softer inflation and a stronger dollar.
• Yields edged lower but not enough to trigger renewed equity momentum.

Key Economic Events to Look Out for

Key Symbols to Watch

USDX (Dollar Index)

• Still supported by reduced rate-cut certainty; consolidation near 99.00.
• Watch 98.50 as short-term support; resistance at 100.20.
• Break above 100 could extend toward 100.75; reversal signals near 98.50.

Gold (XAUUSD)

• Stalled around $4,070 as traders balance cooling inflation with firmer yields.
• Resistance at $4,120; support near $3,930.
• Range-bound until clearer Fed direction.

SP500

• Pulled back after testing 6,950 as caution dominates.
• 6,750 support remains critical; 7,000 psychological barrier caps upside.
• Sensitive to shifts in rate-cut probabilities and shutdown headlines.

BTCUSD

• Consolidating above 106,000; upside targets 112,800–114,650 if risk stabilises.
• Break below 106,000 exposes 103,500.
• Volatility may pick up as liquidity thins into mid-month.

Key Takeaway for the Week: Cautious Easing Ahead

The path forward likely depends less on one data print and more on how long the uncertainty lasts. If the shutdown drags on beyond mid-November as current betting odds suggest, the Fed could enter December with incomplete data. Such a scenario argues for a 25 bps cut as the base case, but with low conviction.

In essence, markets are confronting a split narrative, with macro data supporting a cut, cautious policy delaying and as a result, risk assets kept drifting sideways in the meantime.

Traders are now positioning for a possible rate cut in December, but with no clear signal from the Fed, the U.S. dollar has held steady and broader risk sentiment remains subdued.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

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The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

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The Nikkei 225 Index continued its record-breaking advance on Friday, driven by sustained yen weakness and optimism over technology earnings and trade progress between the world’s two largest economies. The benchmark closed up 780 points at 52,332.65, marking its eighth consecutive weekly gain and the most impressive monthly performance in over three decades.

Weak Yen and Central Bank Cues

The yen traded just below 154 per dollar, near its weakest level since February, offering a tailwind for exporters and multinational corporations of Japan.

The slide of the currency followed dovish commentary from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who held interest rates steady but hinted that any future hike would depend on wage and inflation data.

The sharp depreciation has renewed verbal intervention warnings from Tokyo officials but continues to underpin equity strength, particularly in automotive and industrial sectors.

Global Monetary Backdrop

The recent rate cut from the Federal Reserve has played its part in shaping global sentiment, although Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks that it could be the last cut of 2025 tempered expectations for additional easing. The move strengthened the U.S. dollar and left traders uncertain about the policy path heading into 2026.

Meanwhile, market sentiment improved as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a tentative trade truce, calming fears of escalation in tariffs and supply-chain disruptions.

Tech Earnings and AI Enthusiasm

Technology stocks extended their dominance, with Amazon leading global sentiment after posting its fastest cloud revenue growth in three years. The upbeat results rippled through Asian markets, pushing Japanese AI-related shares such as chipmaker Advantest, semiconductor giant Tokyo Electron, and SoftBank Group sharply higher.

Traders also looked ahead to the next earnings of Apple, which are expected to further fuel optimism around consumer technology spending.

Technical Analysis

The Nikkei 225 surged to 52,332 points, gaining 1.51% as improved sentiment following the Trump–Xi meeting boosted risk appetite across Asian equities.

The reaffirmed commitment to stabilising U.S.–China trade relations and strengthening cooperation in tech and energy sectors lifted investor confidence, driving strong inflows into export-heavy Japanese stocks.

Technically, the index remains in a firm uptrend, extending its rebound from the October consolidation phase. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are stacked bullishly, reflecting sustained momentum, while the MACD continues to widen in positive territory, confirming strong buying pressure.

With the Nikkei pushing decisively above the 50,000 psychological barrier, short-term resistance now lies near 52,500, while support is seen around 49,000.

Outlook

The Japanese equities markets outlook remains favourable heading into November, with sentiment buoyed by the weak yen, upbeat earnings, and improving trade prospects. However, such pace of ascent may trigger bouts of profit-taking, particularly if intervention fears in the currency market grow louder.

Overall, traders appear to be embracing the so-called “Takaichi trade”, betting that the pro-stimulus Japanese government and global AI enthusiasm will continue to fuel the upward momentum for Nikkei. The outlook remains constructively bullish, with Japan benefiting from renewed regional optimism, a weaker yen aiding exports, and improving external trade sentiment spurred by the thaw in U.S.–China ties.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

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The trading hours of some MT4/MT5 products will change due to the upcoming Daylight-Saving Time change in US.

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