Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

A late-2025 government shutdown has triggered a data vacuum, with many key indicators either delayed or unlikely to be published before the December 10–11 Fed meeting. Only the September CPI report has been released. The October non-farm payroll (NFP) report could be delayed into December, and PCE inflation data may not meet release standards in time.

This has forced policymakers to operate with partial visibility. Several Fed members have flagged this as a reason to proceed cautiously, with Atlanta Fed Bostic noting that decisions may have to be made without complete data.

As of 16 November, CME FedWatch Tool places the odds of a 25 bp cut at the December meeting around 44.4%, down from 63% earlier this month and from 85–90% pre–October FOMC. The drop in expectations reflects growing caution among policymakers. Some members like Waller and Bowman have argued for a proactive cut based on labour softening. Others, including Jefferson and Schmid, have called for restraint given persistent inflation.

Such internal divide from the Fed underscores the risk of a policy surprise either way.

Market Reaction May Be Binary

Markets are now weighing two potential outcomes for the December FOMC meeting. If the Fed opts to cut rates, risk assets such as equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies could benefit, while the US dollar may come under pressure.

The scheduled end of quantitative tightening on 1 December would add to the liquidity boost. On the other hand, if the Fed holds rates steady, market sentiment may turn defensive.

A stronger dollar could weigh on gold and Bitcoin, and equities may struggle if traders push back expectations for easing into 2026.

Meanwhile, the Novorossiysk port in Russia has resumed crude exports after a two-day shutdown, easing supply fears and pulling WTI back toward the $59 range. For traders, the quick swing from disruption to recovery highlights a classic volatility window, where fast-moving supply headlines can create short-term opportunities in oil and energy-linked markets.

Overall, the incoming data for this week, particularly the US employment figures on Thursday, could act as a catalyst in either direction depending on how they land relative to expectations.

Upcoming Economic Events

Key Symbols To Watch

Gold (XAUUSD)

• Price currently consolidates near $4,085 after a steep drop from recent highs around $4,260.
• If price retests and rejects near $4,160–4,170, downside continuation remains in play.
• Key support sits at $4,005–4,045; bullish setups may emerge from this zone if momentum holds.
• Break below $4,000 could expose deeper retracements; a reclaim of $4,170 reopens upside potential.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

• Bitcoin is trading around the $96,850 monitored zone; bulls lack momentum without liquidity tailwinds.
• A move toward $102,000 or $104,500 could follow if rate cut odds rebound.
• Downside risk grows if US macro surprises on the hawkish side.

S&P 500 (SP500)

• SP500 is holding support around 6,665 but remains range-bound.
• If price consolidates, a retest of 6,865 may follow; a break lower would signal deeper correction.
• Fed outlook and macro data will dictate broader equity sentiment this week.

USOil

• USOil was trading around 60.45 last week, but quickly fell to around 59.5 per barrel on Monday, paring gains from the previous session after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resume oil loading operations.
• If momentum turns lower, the next key support to watch is around 57.80, where buyers previously stepped in.

EURUSD

• EURUSD dipped from the 1.1650 area; bullish structure now monitored at 1.1590.
• A break below 1.1555 would invalidate the upside zone.
• Price action hinges on US inflation data and ECB tone.

GBPUSD

• Cable pulled back from the 1.3225 zone and may revisit 1.3100 before the next leg higher.
• Traders eye price response near 1.3275 on a rally.
• CPI figures on Wednesday are key for next directional leg.

Market Snapshot

The Federal Reserve approaches its December meeting with a divided stance and limited data visibility, making the policy outlook uncertain. Traders remain highly reactive to incoming macro headlines, particularly around employment and inflation.

With CPI, NFP, and the Fed minutes all on deck, these events will play a key role in shaping market expectations as year-end approaches.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Oil prices staged a strong recovery on Friday, with WTI crude oil trending bullish to $60.27 per barrel. The move comes as traders brace for U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, set to take effect on 21 November, which could temporarily tighten global supply.

Reports indicate that Lukoil PJSC has begun cutting staff across its global trading operations just days before the measures are implemented, an early signal that sanctions could disrupt export logistics.

Analysts estimate that nearly one-third of the Russian seaborne oil exports could face delays or be stranded in transit due to rerouting and slower port clearances. The situation has been worsened by its two largest buyers temporarily halting new cargo purchases amid legal and payment uncertainties.

Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains

Despite the rebound, bearish sentiment lingers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned this week that global oil supply continues to outpace demand, projecting a surplus of 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million bpd in 2026.

While consumption growth is expected to continue through 2050, the near-term glut reflects higher production from the U.S. and OPEC members. The OPEC+ also reported a Q3 surplus, highlighting that recent production increases have offset disruptions elsewhere.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose for a second consecutive week, amplifying short-term downside pressure.

Technical Analysis

Crude oil prices have rebounded to around $60.27, climbing nearly 2.9% after testing support near the $55 zone earlier this month.

The daily chart shows that momentum has turned mildly bullish in the short term, with prices reclaiming the 5-day moving average and attempting to cross the 10- and 30-day MAs, which could indicate an early-stage trend reversal if sustained.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has flipped slightly positive, hinting at strengthening buying pressure following weeks of consolidation.

The recovery reflects improving sentiment after recent reports suggested OPEC+ may discuss deeper production cuts at its upcoming meeting, amid signs of weakening demand in China and high inventory levels in the U.S.

Additionally, energy markets reacted positively to easing tensions in the Trump–Xi trade narrative, which reduced fears of an immediate slowdown in global trade flows.

Still, caution remains, as the broader macro backdrop continues to point to sluggish consumption and resilient supply.

For now, traders should watch for resistance around $62.50–$63.00, a zone that previously capped several recovery attempts.

A decisive break above this region could open the door toward $66, while failure to hold above $59.50 might reintroduce downward pressure. With volatility likely to pick up ahead U.S. inflation and inventory data next week, oil may remain in a choppy but gradually strengthening phase.

Cautious Forecast

If U.S. sanctions on Lukoil create measurable export delays, WTI could extend gains toward $62.00 in the near term. However, confirmation of rising U.S. stockpiles or further IEA demand downgrades could trigger renewed selling toward $58.50.

The broader trend remains range-bound as traders balance near-term supply disruptions against persistent oversupply signals from OPEC and the IEA.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

USD/JPY continues to trade within a bullish structure, with recent buying momentum from the 153.01 to 153.06 zone recapturing early losses and reinforcing support. While an Ending Wedge formation suggests caution on extended gains, the broader trend remains upward being fueled by macro divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Fed Patience vs BoJ Inertia

The U.S. dollar has remained resilient following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks that the central bank is “not yet confident” inflation is sustainably returning to target. This has led markets to scale back expectations for imminent rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and supporting the dollar across the board.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan has remained notably silent, offering no fresh guidance despite the yen’s continued weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda has avoided signaling any timeline for exiting ultra-loose policy, reinforcing the perception that Japan will lag behind in global monetary tightening. This is a key factor driving USD/JPY higher.

This policy divergence has widened interest rate differentials, making the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors and keeping the yen under pressure.

USDJPY Technical Analysis: Dip-Buying Zone Holds with Eyes on 155

USD/JPY is consolidating within a bullish channel, with price action respecting bespoke support near 153.06 to 153.07. The recent gap from 7-9 November 2025 has been fully closed, and Asian session flows have reinforced the upward bias the currency pair

• Support: 153.01–153.06, followed by 152.50 as bearish trigger if broken
• Resistance: 155 and 155.2 if support holds
• Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above 155.2
• Bullish Bias: Buy dips near 153.06 to 153.07, targetting 155 and 155.2. Maintain stops below 152.80.
• Bearish Setup: Short only if price breaks and closes below 153.00, looking out for 152.50. Use tight stops above 153.30.
• Range Play: Accumulate near 153.06 and reduce exposure near 155.2. Trade the range until a breakout confirms direction.

Outlook: Yen on the Back Foot as Markets Wait for BoJ to Blink

With the Fed signaling patience and the BoJ staying dovish, USD/JPY remains supported by macro fundamentals. However, the presence of an Ending Wedge pattern suggests that momentum could slow near resistance, especially if U.S. yields retreat or intervention chatter resurfaces from Japanese officials.

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EUR/USD continues to trade within a bullish framework, hovering 1.1550 to 1.1600 after a modest pullback from recent highs. While short-term momentum indicators like RSI are easing, the broader trend remains intact with dip-buying interest expected near key support at 1.1535.

Fed Caution and EU Budget Friction

The Federal Reserve has signaled a more cautious stance on rate cuts, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for “greater confidence” in inflation returning to target before easing further. This has tempered expectations for aggressive monetary support, keeping the dollar relatively firm despite softening data.

In Europe, political tensions around the European Union 2026 budget proposal have resurfaced, with several member states pushing back on increased spending allocations. This has raised concerns about fiscal cohesion and long-term growth prospects, although European Central Bank (ECB) officials have maintained a neutral tone, reiterating that current policy is “appropriately restrictive.”

Together, these factors have contributed to choppy EUR/USD price action, with the euro supported by a resilient labor market and improving sentiment, but capped by external headwinds and cautious central bank guidance.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Consolidation Within Bullish Structure

EUR/USD remains in a bullish consolidation phase, with price action favoring tactical accumulation near support.

• Support: 1.1535, 1.1500 followed by the bearish trigger zone of 1.1460
• Resistance: 1.1615 and 1.1635
• Bullish Bias: Buy dips near 1.1535, targetting 1.1615 and 1.1635. Maintain stops below 1.1500.
• Bearish Setup: Short only if price breaks and holds below 1.1500, looking out for 1.1460. Use tight stops above 1.1535.
• Range Play: Accumulate near 1.1535 and reduce exposure near 1.1635. Trade the range until a breakout confirms direction.

Bullish Bias Intact, But Momentum Slowing

EUR/USD remains supported by technical structure and selective euro strength, but momentum is fading as macro uncertainty builds. Traders should monitor Fed commentary, EU fiscal headlines, and inflation data for clues on directional bias.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:

Please note:
• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.
• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.
• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.
• Please ensure that all take-profit and stop-loss settings are adjusted before the rollover occurs.
• All internal transfers for accounts under the same name will be prohibited during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading hours on the rollover dates.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.