Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
The euro is holding its ground with a quiet confidence, even as traders brace for what could be one of the most pivotal months of the year. With the Fed December meeting looming, whispers of a rate cut are rippling through markets, stirring both anticipation and caution. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank’s fiscal discipline and fresh macro data from Germany and France are painting a picture of resilience in the eurozone.
Against this backdrop, EUR/USD isn’t just moving on charts. It is reflecting the tug-of-war between policy divergence, investor sentiment and the broader risk mood.
Fed Cut Likelihood and ECB Fiscal Policy
Markets are focused on the Fed December meeting, where policymakers face one of their most challenging decisions of the year. Speculation of a rate cut has grown after recent data showed moderating inflation, but Fed officials remain cautious, emphasising the need for “greater confidence” before easing policy. This uncertainty has pressured the dollar, giving the euro room to extend gains.
On the European side, the fiscal stance remains of the ECB disciplined, with policymakers stressing budgetary restraint even as growth remains fragile. Recent macro data, including German IFO surveys, showed cautious optimism, suggesting that while growth is subdued, sentiment is stabilising.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Upside Targets: 1.1645 followed by 1.1660 as bullish extension levels
Stop Level: 1.1570 would invalidate immediate bullish bias
Bullish Trend: Buy dips into around 1.1585, targetting 1.1645 and 1.1660, with stops below 1.1570.
Counter-Trend Setup: Longs only if price breaks and holds above ~1.1660, signaling fresh bullish momentum.
Range Play: Take long positions near 1.1585 and close out between 1.1645 to 1.1660 until breakout develops.
Looking Ahead: Policy Divergence Keeps Euro Supported
The bullish bias of EUR/USD remains intact while above 1.1570. The balance between Fed rate cut speculation in December and ECB fiscal discipline will be decisive for the next move. If the Fed signals easing, the dollar could weaken further, allowing EUR/USD to extend toward 1.1660 and beyond. Conversely, a hawkish Fed stance would test support levels, but the resilience of the Euro, backed by fiscal caution and stabilising macro data, suggests dips will continue to attract buyers.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
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Gold extended its upward momentum from $4,153 but the rally was quickly sold into, leaving price action mixed and volatile. The yellow metal continues to trade within a bullish channel formation, yet immediate signals point to weakening momentum. Trendline resistance at $4,338 defines the preferred sell-entry zone, while bespoke support sits lower at $4,133, marking the first major downside objective.
Fed Rate Cut Likelihood and Market Risk Mood
The spotlight is firmly on the December Fed meeting, where traders are debating whether policymakers will deliver the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began. While inflation has cooled, Fed officials remain cautious, signaling that any easing will be gradual. This uncertainty has created a fragile risk mood, with equity markets showing resilience but investors hedging defensively through gold.
Beyond monetary policy, the global backdrop is being shaped by geopolitical tensions and fiscal debates that add layers of caution to investor sentiment. In the Middle East, renewed clashes have kept energy markets volatile, raising fears of supply disruptions and inflationary spillovers. Meanwhile, trade friction between the U.S. and China has resurfaced, with disputes over tariffs and technology supply chains threatening to slow global growth. Europe, too, is facing heightened security concerns, as NATO expands its military exercises and China pushes for greater influence in Arctic shipping routes.
These developments underscore the fragile geopolitical order and reinforce the role of gold as a hedge against instability.
Fiscal debates in Washington and Europe are amplifying the uncertainty. In the U.S., lawmakers remain divided over budget priorities, with deficit concerns clashing against calls for continued stimulus. The lack of clarity on fiscal direction has weighed on investor confidence, prompting defensive positioning. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank has emphasized the need for fiscal discipline even as growth remains subdued. Member states are under pressure to balance debt sustainability with demands for energy subsidies and social spending, a tension that has capped euro strength and indirectly supported gold.
Together, these fiscal struggles highlight the difficulty of navigating policy in a fragile global economy, keeping investors wary and safe-haven demand elevated.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis
Primary: 4,133 as the bespoke downside target, and 4,060 as the deeper corrective phase trigger
Resistance: Sustained move above 4,393 would negate bearish bias and extend upside channel
Bearish Setup: Sell rallies into around the 4,338 resistance. Target 4,133 and 4,060, with stops above 4,393.
Bullish Setup: Long only if price breaks and holds above 4,393. This would extend upside potential and invalidate the bearish setup.
Range Play: Trade between 4,060 and 4,338. Sell near resistance, reduce exposure near support.
Looking Ahead: Resistance Holds in the Face of Policy Uncertainty
The broader bullish channel remains intact for gold, but short-term momentum is fading. Rallies into resistance are expected to attract sellers, especially as traders await clarity from the Fed’s December meeting. The balance between rate cut speculation, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal debates in Washington and Europe will be decisive for its next move.
Bitcoin has extended its downward momentum from 93,060, posting fresh daily losses and keeping the medium-term bias firmly bearish. Price action remains volatile, with rallies capped near bespoke resistance at 90,220. The 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the recent swing aligns with a key downside target at 85,560, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Fed Cut Debate, Stock Market Divergence and Bond Shock from Japan
The crypto market is caught between Fed rate cut speculation and tightening global liquidity. Traders are watching the December Fed meeting, where policymakers may deliver the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began. While inflation has cooled, Fed officials remain cautious, signaling that any easing will be gradual. This uncertainty has weighed on Bitcoin, which thrives in liquidity-rich environments.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 holding near highs despite volatility in crypto. The divergence underscores investor preference for equities, which benefit from corporate earnings and fiscal support, while Bitcoin remains more sensitive to liquidity shifts and investor psychology.
Adding to the pressure, Japanese government bond yields surged to multi-decade highs in late November. The 30-year JGB climbed above 3.4%, while the 20-year rose near 2.9%, sparking fears of a BOJ policy shift. Rising yields tightened yen liquidity and triggered unwinding of the carry trade, a funding strategy that had supported risk assets globally. The shock spilled into crypto markets, with Bitcoin sliding from 92,000 to 86,000 and over half a billion dollars in leveraged positions liquidated. Analysts noted this was one of the clearest examples of how the Japanese bond market turmoil directly impacted Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis
Support: 85,560 is the Fibonacci extension target, followed by 83,600 acting as the deeper bearish extension
Resistance: A sustained move above 92,220 would negate the bearish bias
Bearish case: Sell rallies into with 90,220 as resistance. Target 85,560 and 83,600 with stops above 92,220.
Bullish setup: Long only if price breaks and holds above 92,220, watching out for minor retracement around 90,220.
Range play: Trade between 83,600 and 90,220. Sell near resistance and buy near support.
Bearish Bias Holds as Liquidity Tightens
The decline of Bitcoin reflects both technical weakness and macro headwinds. Unless the Fed signals a clear path to rate cuts in December, liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin may remain under pressure. The surge in Japanese bond yields has added another layer of stress, draining global liquidity and forcing risk-off positioning. Meanwhile, U.S. equities highlight the divergence in risk appetite, with investors favoring stocks over crypto.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
The rapid repricing of Fed expectations followed a rare dovish turn from normally centrist policymakers, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller. These recent remarks signalled that rates may need to be cut “in the near term” as labour conditions soften and inflation cools, prompting banks such as JPMorgan to pull forward their call for a first cut to December.
Growing Expectations of a Cut
FedWatch probabilities flipped sharply over the past two weeks. Futures markets now assign roughly an 87% chance of a 25 bp cut at the 10 December FOMC, up from about 40 to 50% just a week earlier, as traders responded to dovish Fed commentary and softer macro surprises.
Lower rate expectations have rippled through the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back toward the 4.0% region, while the 2-year yield is trading around 3.5%, levels more consistent with a policy path that includes several cuts over the next year.
Wall Street stocks closed higher extending the November 21 rally as increased odds that the US Federal Reserve will lower its Fed funds target rate in December helped investors look past concerns about inflated tech valuations https://t.co/oiQLPm1hEhpic.twitter.com/3elSIcKbdK
That drop in yields has reignited demand for growth and duration-sensitive assets. US tech stocks just logged their biggest daily jump in six months, with the Nasdaq surging about 2.7% and the S&P 500 up 1.6% in one session as AI-linked names such as Broadcom, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla led the rebound.
Meanwhile, crypto is holding near November lows, reflecting lingering risk-off sentiment despite improved liquidity expectations.
USDX traded up and retested the 99.45 zone, showing hesitation as the index reacts to shifting US rate expectations.
If the index pulls back, traders should watch the 99.00 support area, where bullish price action may re-emerge.
If momentum continues higher, USDX could push toward 100.50 or even 100.90, especially if upcoming US data surprises to the upside.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold traded above the 4,190 monitored area, supported by softer Treasury yields and rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
Price could extend toward the 4,245 resistance zone before any corrective pullback, especially if upcoming US data shows further cooling in services activity or hiring.
If gold consolidates first, watch for bullish price action around 4,170, as weaker US employment or ISM readings this week may reinforce demand for safe havens and keep the uptrend intact.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin traded down from the 92,450 monitored area after consolidating for more than a week, reflecting reduced risk appetite as traders reassessed the Fed’s mixed signals.
Price is now testing the 87,070 monitored area, a key level that aligns with broader uncertainty ahead of major US data releases this week (ISM Services, ADP jobs, and PCE).
If BTC shows another consolidation pattern at current levels, it could pave the way for a new swing low, especially if US data comes in stronger and dents December rate-cut expectations.
USDCAD
USDCAD extended its downside move after taking out the 1.3970 liquidity zone, signalling that bearish pressure is still in play.
If price consolidates at current levels, a push lower toward the 1.3900 support becomes likely, especially if USD sentiment stays soft.
Traders will watch Canada’s Employment Change data on 5 December, where a stronger jobs print could add further downside pressure on USDCAD, while a weak report may trigger a corrective bounce.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped further and tested the 155.50 zone after BoJ Governor Ueda signalled that a December rate hike remains possible, boosting the Japanese Yen during the Asian session.
The pair is also under pressure from a broadly weaker US Dollar, as markets price in a high probability of a Fed rate cut next week, reducing yield differentials that previously supported USDJPY.
If the downward trend keeps going, traders should pay attention to price movements around 155.35 and 154.65, where positive reactions might happen, but ongoing strong signals from the BoJ could keep pushing prices lower.
Bottom Line
The upcoming US releases will determine whether the dovish shift has further room to run or needs recalibration, while key international figures add another layer to cross-asset flows. Traders should stay nimble and prepared for cross-asset volatility as the macro picture takes clearer shape. Stay flexible, watch key levels and react quickly to data surprises as markets position for the final major event of the year.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
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