Gold prices in the Philippines were broadly unchanged on Friday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,145.69 per gram, compared with PHP 9,152.41 on Thursday.

Gold was also quoted at PHP 106,673.50 per tola, versus PHP 106,751.90 a day earlier. FXStreet derives local prices by converting international rates using USD/PHP and local units.

Daily Price Reference

Prices are updated daily using market rates available at the time of publication. The figures are for reference, and local pricing may vary slightly.

Gold is widely used as jewellery and is also held as a store of value and a medium of exchange. It is often used as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold and may buy it to diversify reserves. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities.

Key Market Drivers

Gold prices can react to geopolitical risk or recession fears. They are also influenced by interest rates and by movements in the US Dollar, as gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

We are observing gold prices holding steady, but this could be a temporary pause before the next move. The major underlying support comes from central banks, which we saw purchase over 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third year in a row in 2025. This massive and consistent demand continues to create a strong floor under the price.

Gold’s appeal is also growing due to its inverse relationship with the US Dollar. As we saw the Federal Reserve continue its cautious rate-cutting cycle that began last year, the dollar has softened, which helped propel gold to the highs experienced in late 2025. This environment makes gold an attractive hedge against further currency weakness.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns also continue to fuel gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. After the inflationary spike of the early 2020s, we see investors remain quick to seek shelter from market volatility. This underlying risk factor provides a solid reason to anticipate further interest in gold during any periods of uncertainty.

For derivative traders, this suggests that buying call options or establishing bull call spreads could be a prudent strategy for the coming weeks. These positions allow participation in potential upward price movements while clearly defining and limiting downside risk. This is especially useful after the strong upward trend we witnessed through much of 2025.

We must watch for periods of consolidation, as these can offer better entry points for new long positions. After the significant price gains last year, implied volatility in gold options may be elevated, making it crucial to structure trades carefully. Consider waiting for a slight dip to purchase derivatives rather than chasing a rally at its peak.

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates were broadly unchanged on Friday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at AED 562.31 per gram, compared with AED 562.73 on Thursday.

Gold was also steady at AED 6,558.62 per tola, down from AED 6,563.53 a day earlier. Other listed prices were AED 5,623.06 for 10 grams and AED 17,489.05 per troy ounce.

How Local Gold Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet derives local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/AED rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may differ slightly.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest yearly purchase since records began.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move against risk assets. Its price may react to geopolitical instability, recession fears, and interest rate changes, as it is priced in US dollars (XAU/USD).

Gold prices are currently holding steady, which we see as a period of consolidation after a significant rally. This pause around the $2,370 per ounce level offers a moment to assess the market’s direction. For traders, this stability suggests the market is absorbing recent gains before its next major move.

Outlook For Gold Market

We believe the fundamental picture remains supportive for gold, largely due to central bank policy. When we look back, the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in late 2025, and with March 2026 inflation data still showing a sticky 2.8%, real yields are expected to remain low. Markets are pricing in at least two more rate cuts this year, which typically boosts non-yielding assets like gold.

Central bank demand continues to be a powerful underlying driver for the price. Official data showed that global central banks added another 800 tonnes to their reserves throughout 2025, signaling a continued strategy of diversification away from the US dollar. This institutional buying provides a strong floor for the market and absorbs physical supply.

This trend is also reflected in currency markets, where the US Dollar Index (DXY) has trended lower, recently breaking below the 101 mark in the first quarter of 2026. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, which generally increases demand. The inverse correlation between the dollar and gold is a key relationship we are watching.

Given these factors, the current price stability seems like a bullish consolidation. Derivative traders might consider this an opportunity to build long positions for the coming months. Using long-dated call options could be a strategic way to play expected upside, while bull call spreads could be used to limit costs and define risk in anticipation of a continued uptrend.

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USD/KRW traded near 1,478.00 in Asian trading on Friday. The pair stayed firm as the won weakened after the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5%, in line with expectations, and pointed to a “wait and see” stance due to Middle East conflict risks.

Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the economic growth and inflation effects of the Iran war are larger than those seen during the Ukraine war. He added that the situation is volatile, supporting a “wait and see” approach.

Policy Signals And Market Reaction

Incoming governor Shin Hyun-song said stagflation is unlikely and that South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves can help absorb external shocks. This was reported by KED Global.

The US Dollar Index was slightly higher at about 98.88 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index release for March. The data is due at 12:30 GMT.

Markets are also focused on talks between the US and Iran. Negotiations on a 10-point peace proposal in Pakistan are scheduled for Saturday.

Given the situation we saw develop a year ago in 2025, the key for traders now is to assess how much of that geopolitical risk has been priced out of the market. The Bank of Korea’s “wait and see” approach back then, with the USD/KRW touching 1,478, was a clear signal of extreme uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict. This created a spike in volatility, which rewarded traders who were long options contracts, such as straddles, that profit from large price swings in either direction.

Strategy Shifts In A Lower Volatility Regime

Looking back, that period of high tension made hedging strategies essential for anyone with exposure to the South Korean economy. Buying USD/KRW call options or futures contracts was a direct way to protect against further weakness in the Won. Those holding such positions would have been guarding against the exact scenario Governor Rhee warned about, where the conflict’s impact could exceed that of the Ukraine war.

Now, in April 2026, the landscape has shifted, and we see that inflation in South Korea has since cooled to a more manageable 2.8% in the first quarter. This supports the view from incoming Governor Shin Hyun-song at the time that stagflation was not the baseline scenario. The Won has stabilized well below its 2025 highs, suggesting that the worst-case geopolitical fears did not fully materialize.

Traders should now be unwinding those expensive crisis-era hedges and looking at strategies that reflect a more stable, albeit cautious, environment. South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves remain robust at over $415 billion, providing a significant buffer that the market now appreciates more fully. This suggests that selling out-of-the-money call options on the USD/KRW could be a viable strategy to collect premium, betting that a surge back to the 1,470s is unlikely.

The focus has also shifted back toward monetary policy differentials, particularly with the US. We saw the US Dollar Index at a relatively weak 98.88 during the 2025 turmoil, but the Federal Reserve’s policy path since has provided more support for the greenback. The key is to watch for any divergence between the BoK’s willingness to cut rates versus the Fed’s, as this will be a primary driver for the currency pair moving forward.

Therefore, using derivative strategies that benefit from lower volatility, such as put spreads, could be prudent for those seeking to hedge against a moderate decline in the Won. This provides downside protection at a lower cost than buying puts outright, fitting the current market that is less fearful than it was a year ago. It allows for participation in a stable market while still respecting the underlying economic uncertainties that remain.

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USD/JPY rose to about 159.15 in Asian trading on Friday, with the US Dollar supported by worries about the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East. Markets are also watching the US March CPI inflation report due later on Friday.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday he accused Iran of doing a “very poor job” of handling oil through the waterway and said he could order large-scale attacks if ceasefire terms are not met.

Middle East Tensions And Dollar Support

US Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to hold talks in Pakistan on Saturday about a possible long-term deal with Iran. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government is weighing the release of about 20 days’ worth of extra oil reserves from early May to stabilise supplies amid shipping disruption.

Markets price in a possible Bank of Japan rate rise at the April meeting, which could support the yen. Citi Research’s Tomohisa Fujiki put the chance of such a move at up to 70%.

The yen is influenced by Japan’s economic performance, Bank of Japan policy, and the gap between US and Japanese bond yields. Its value can also shift with changes in market risk appetite.

With the USD/JPY pair pushing above 159, we are seeing a classic flight to the US Dollar driven by geopolitical fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This tension has sent oil prices surging, with Brent crude futures climbing over 12% in the last two weeks to near $105 a barrel, further bolstering the dollar’s appeal. Traders should be cautious of this momentum as it is based on news events, not just fundamentals.

The immediate focus must be on the US Consumer Price Index report due later today, which will be a major catalyst. Market consensus is for a slight cooling in core inflation, which, if confirmed, could take some strength out of the dollar and see the pair pull back sharply from these highs. Any upside surprise in inflation, however, would likely fuel bets on a hawkish Federal Reserve and could push the pair towards the 160 level.

BoJ Policy And Rate Differentials

We see a significant probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the upcoming April policy meeting, which would directly challenge the yen’s weakness. We remember how the yen strengthened after the BoJ finally moved away from its negative interest rate policy back in March 2024. A second hike would accelerate this trend and could trigger a rapid downward correction in USD/JPY.

This potential BoJ action makes the interest rate differential between US and Japanese bonds the critical metric to watch. The spread between the US 10-year Treasury and its Japanese equivalent is currently sitting near 380 basis points, a level that has historically supported a strong dollar. A BoJ hike would begin to close this gap, making options that bet on a lower USD/JPY in the coming weeks, such as put options, look increasingly attractive.

Given the opposing forces of geopolitics and monetary policy, volatility is the main theme. The Cboe’s USD/JPY Volatility Index (JYVIX) has already climbed to its highest point since the market stress we experienced in late 2025. This environment suggests that long volatility strategies, like buying straddles or strangles, could be effective for traders who anticipate a large price swing but are uncertain of the direction.

The diplomatic talks scheduled in Pakistan this weekend represent a significant wildcard for the market. A successful de-escalation agreement with Iran would likely cause a sharp drop in oil prices and unwind the dollar’s recent risk premium, sending USD/JPY lower. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations would reinforce the dollar’s safe-haven status and could propel the pair even higher.

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Silver (XAG/USD) moved sideways in a tight range during the Asian session on Friday, after a three-day recovery from below $70.00. It traded below $75.50 and was almost unchanged on the day, while still set to finish up for a third consecutive week.

On the 4-hour chart, price remains below the 200-period EMA, which keeps the near-term tone capped. Momentum signals are mildly supportive, with the 14-period RSI near 57 and the MACD slightly positive.

Key Resistance And Support Levels

The 200-period EMA on the H4 sits at $76.66 and is the first resistance level to watch. Further resistance is seen at the 50.0% Fibonacci level at $78.71, then the 61.8% level at $82.86, the 78.6% level at $88.76, and the cycle high at $96.28.

Support starts at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $74.57. Lower support levels are the 23.6% retracement at $69.44 and a base near $61.15.

Looking back at the analysis from 2025, we saw silver struggling to overcome key technical hurdles like the 200-period moving average. The market was consolidating below the $75.50 mark, showing caution despite some underlying positive momentum. That period of sideways movement was critical in building a base for the price action we see today.

The situation has changed significantly as we move through April 2026. Industrial demand, particularly from the solar and electric vehicle sectors, has surged, with a first-quarter industry report showing silver consumption up 7% year-over-year. This fundamental strength has pushed silver prices well past those old resistance points, with spot prices now hovering near $84.00.

Derivatives Strategy And Positioning

For derivative traders, this suggests a strategy of buying call options to capitalize on further upward momentum. We are seeing heavy volume in contracts with strike prices of $88.00 and $90.00 for May and June 2026 expirations. This indicates a market expectation that silver will test the major psychological resistance level of $90.00 in the coming weeks.

However, given the rapid price increase, using spreads can help manage costs and risk. A bull call spread, such as buying an $85.00 call and selling an $89.00 call, offers a defined risk-reward profile for a continued, steady climb. This approach is prudent, especially as recent inflation figures for March 2026 came in slightly cooler than expected, which could create some short-term headwinds.

The technical levels we monitored back in 2025 now serve as important support zones. The old resistance at the $78.71 Fibonacci level should now act as a solid floor in case of any pullback. Any dip towards the $80.00 to $82.00 range could present an opportunity to add to bullish positions.

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GBP/USD dipped after four days of gains, trading near 1.3430 in Asian hours on Friday. The US Dollar held firmer amid renewed risk aversion linked to uncertainty over a US-Iran ceasefire.

Traders are waiting for the US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report due later in the North American session. Overall sentiment stayed cautious.

Geopolitical Risks And Market Sentiment

Israel continued strikes on Hezbollah, while Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will begin direct talks with Lebanon soon. Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement.

JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are set to meet in Pakistan this weekend about a possible long-term deal with Iran. Iran’s Esmaeil Baghaei said talks to end the war depend on the US keeping its ceasefire commitments.

Baghaei said those commitments include a ceasefire in Lebanon, which the US and Israel said was not part of the deal. Andrew Bailey warned the Iran war could trigger a 2008-style crisis tied to stress in the opaque $3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) private credit market.

Volatility Hedging And Positioning

Looking back at the geopolitical tensions of 2025, the market’s cautious sentiment from that time has created lasting effects we see today. The persistent risk aversion, fueled by last year’s US-Iran standoff and Israeli military actions, continues to drive capital towards safe-haven assets. We see this reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has established a higher floor around 18, compared to the pre-2025 average of 14.

Given this elevated uncertainty, traders should consider buying protection against sudden market swings. Call options on the VIX or VIX futures are a direct way to profit from an increase in expected volatility over the next several weeks. This strategy acts as an effective hedge for long-equity portfolios that are vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

The US Dollar’s role as a primary safe haven, which we saw strengthen during the 2025 ceasefire talks, remains a key theme. The Dollar Index (DXY) has gained nearly 3% since the start of this year, a trend we expect to continue as Mideast tensions simmer. Using derivatives to maintain a long position in the US Dollar, either through futures contracts or call options against a basket of currencies, is a prudent move.

Conversely, the British Pound appears vulnerable, a concern Governor Bailey noted last year. With UK inflation remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England’s target at 3.1% last quarter and GDP growth stalling, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure. We believe buying put options on GBP/USD offers a cheap way to position for further downside in the Pound.

The threat of energy shocks mentioned by the BoE governor in 2025 has kept inflation expectations higher for longer. This suggests the Federal Reserve may be slower to cut rates than the market currently prices in. Therefore, traders should examine interest rate derivatives, such as positioning in SOFR futures to bet on rates remaining elevated through the third quarter of 2026.

Governor Bailey’s warning about the private credit market is more relevant than ever, as the market has grown to an estimated $3.5 trillion. Credit spreads on high-yield corporate debt have widened by 50 basis points in the last two months alone, indicating rising stress. Buying credit default swap (CDS) protection on indices like the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index is a direct way to hedge against a potential credit event.

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for Friday at 6.8654. This compared with the previous day’s fix of 6.8649 and a Reuters estimate of 6.8313.

The PBOC’s main monetary policy aims are price stability, including exchange rate stability, and supporting economic growth. It also works on financial reforms, including opening and developing China’s financial market.

Pboc Governance And Control

The PBOC is owned by the state of the People’s Republic of China, so it is not an autonomous body. The Chinese Communist Party Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has strong influence over its management, and Pan Gongsheng holds both that role and the governor post.

The PBOC uses tools such as a seven-day reverse repo rate, the medium-term lending facility, foreign exchange actions, and the reserve requirement ratio. The loan prime rate is China’s benchmark interest rate and affects loan, mortgage, and savings rates, as well as the Renminbi exchange rate.

China has 19 private banks. The largest include WeBank and MYbank, and fully privately funded domestic lenders were allowed to operate from 2014.

We are seeing the People’s Bank of China guide the yuan weaker against the US dollar, setting the daily fix at 6.8654. This move was notably weaker than market estimates which were closer to 6.83. This suggests a deliberate policy signal is being sent to the market.

Implications For Yuan Trading

This policy shift aligns with the challenging economic data we saw coming out of the first quarter of 2026. With exports falling by 7.5% year-on-year in March and consumer inflation remaining tepid at just 0.1%, a weaker currency is a classic tool to make Chinese goods more competitive globally. A weaker yuan helps support the manufacturing sector during a period of soft domestic demand.

This currency management is consistent with the broader easing stance we’ve observed from the central bank. We remember the significant cut to the five-year Loan Prime Rate late in 2025, which was aimed at stimulating the property market and lowering borrowing costs. Allowing the currency to depreciate is another lever they can pull when direct interest rate cuts have had limited effect.

For derivative traders, this signals that one-way bets on yuan strength are now riskier. We should anticipate increased volatility in USD/CNY options as the market digests the PBOC’s intentions. The key will be to trade the range, as the state-owned central bank will likely intervene to prevent a disorderly depreciation.

In the coming weeks, we should consider strategies that profit from either a gradual rise in USD/CNY or higher implied volatility. This could include buying offshore yuan (CNH) put options or implementing call option spreads on the USD/CNH. These positions would benefit from the managed depreciation we expect to see.

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South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK), kept its policy interest rate at 2.5%. The decision matched forecasts.

The rate remains at 2.5% after the latest meeting. No change was made to the headline policy rate.

Market Pricing And Volatility Outlook

The Bank of Korea’s decision to hold its key rate at 2.5% was widely anticipated, meaning the market has already priced this in. We see this as a signal of a prolonged pause, not a pivot, removing any immediate catalyst for a major repricing in short-term rates. Consequently, implied volatility on near-term options for currency and bonds should decrease.

We are now focusing on the interest rate differential with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is holding near 3.0%, keeping pressure on the won. With the USD/KRW exchange rate hovering around 1370, traders should consider strategies that benefit from a stable-to-weakening won, such as buying puts on the currency. We saw how this differential drove the won’s weakness throughout much of 2025, and that dynamic remains in place.

For interest rate swaps, the BOK’s neutral stance anchors the front end of the yield curve. The market is now pushing back expectations for any further rate cuts until later this year, flattening the curve. This environment suggests considering receiver swaps on longer tenors to bet on eventual easing, while the short end remains locked.

This steady rate environment removes a headwind for the KOSPI 200, but the underlying reason for the hold is key. We remember the concerns in 2025 when growth slowed after the initial semiconductor-led export recovery, a recovery which now appears to be moderating. Given this uncertainty, traders could favor range-bound strategies like selling strangles on the index, capitalizing on sideways movement.

Key Data To Watch Next

The critical data points in the coming weeks will be the next inflation and export figures. Inflation has proven sticky, rebounding to 2.8% recently after falling for most of last year. Any sign that inflation is accelerating again could force the BOK to maintain its hawkish hold, while a sharp drop in exports could reignite calls for a rate cut sooner than expected.

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EUR/USD traded lower near 1.1690 in early Asian trading on Friday, as the euro weakened against the US dollar. Trading was cautious over whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would continue.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday that talks to end the war depend on the US meeting ceasefire commitments. He said these include a ceasefire in Lebanon, which the US and Israel said was not part of the deal.

Middle East Ceasefire In Focus

US Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are preparing for talks in Pakistan this weekend on a potential long-term deal with Iran. The two-week pause in hostilities has largely held.

Tensions in the region continued after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will “continue to strike Hezbollah with force”. Ongoing uncertainty has supported demand for the US dollar.

The US March CPI inflation report is due on Friday. Headline CPI is forecast at 3.3% year on year in March, up from 2.4% in February, linked to higher oil prices.

In Europe, the ECB has signalled possible further tightening if price pressures persist. Markets have fully priced in two rate rises and show more than a 50% chance of a third by December, according to Reuters.

Dollar Demand Versus ECB Tightening

We see the EUR/USD pair facing downward pressure due to the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, which is boosting the US Dollar as a safe haven. This geopolitical uncertainty makes traders nervous, and they are moving capital into dollar-denominated assets for safety. The situation is a classic risk-off scenario that typically weighs on pairs like the EUR/USD.

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index report is the most important event today, with expectations of a sharp rise to 3.3% year-over-year. We saw a similar pattern throughout 2022, where hotter-than-expected inflation reports consistently triggered strong dollar rallies as the market priced in a more aggressive Federal Reserve. A high number today would almost certainly reinforce this trend and push the EUR/USD lower.

Given the binary risk of the CPI data, a sensible derivatives strategy would be to buy volatility. Purchasing an at-the-money straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option, would allow a trader to profit from a large price swing in either direction following the announcement. Implied volatility for one-week EUR/USD options has already surged to over 10%, indicating the market is bracing for a significant move.

Beyond today, the stability of the Middle East remains a key factor that will support the dollar. The tense standoff reminds us of late 2024, when similar conflicts caused oil prices to spike and the Dollar Index (DXY) to rally from 104 to over 107 in just a few weeks. Should this ceasefire break down, we would expect a repeat of that safe-haven demand for the greenback.

However, we must not ignore the increasingly hawkish European Central Bank, which is now expected to deliver at least two rate hikes this year. This policy divergence acts as a strong counterbalance and provides underlying support for the Euro. Looking back at the ECB’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle that began in 2022, we know they are capable of moving decisively to combat inflation, which could limit how far the EUR/USD can fall.

Therefore, traders might consider using the post-CPI volatility to establish positions for the coming weeks. A sharp drop in the pair following a high inflation number could present a buying opportunity for those betting on the ECB’s hawkish stance. Conversely, a spike on weak inflation data might be an opportunity to short the pair if one believes the geopolitical risks will ultimately dominate.

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government is weighing a plan to release about 20 days’ worth of extra oil reserves from early May, Reuters reported on Friday. The proposal is aimed at steadying domestic energy supplies.

The plan comes as shipping disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, despite a recent two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The disruptions have raised concerns about transport and supply routes.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said there were no immediate risks of an oil shortage. She also said the government is not in a position to discuss measures against possible shortages.

Market Impact Of A Reserve Release

Japan’s plan to release oil reserves starting in May is likely to put some downward pressure on front-month crude oil futures. We see this as a signal to anticipate a short-term dip in prices, as the market will need to absorb this new supply. However, the move is a reaction to a serious geopolitical threat, not a change in fundamental demand.

The two-week ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz is the critical factor, and we view it as extremely fragile. With roughly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption passing through that single point, any renewed conflict would send prices sharply higher, far outweighing the impact of Japan’s release. This underlying tension suggests buying longer-dated call options to hedge against a sudden price spike is a prudent move.

We are seeing a classic conflict between a short-term bearish signal (the supply release) and a long-term bullish risk (geopolitical instability). We recall how the large U.S. strategic reserve releases in 2022 only provided temporary price relief before market realities took over again. Therefore, we believe this planned release offers a brief window to enter bullish positions at a potentially lower price.

Volatility Strategy Considerations

The contradictory statements from the Prime Minister and Finance Minister create uncertainty, which typically increases options premiums. We expect oil price volatility, which hovered around an elevated 35% for much of 2025 during the initial Red Sea disruptions, to climb again as we approach May. Traders should consider strategies that profit from this volatility itself, regardless of the ultimate direction of oil prices.

Given that Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its oil imports, the Prime Minister’s actions should be seen as the more credible indicator of government concern. We are advising traders to position for a dip in the next few weeks followed by significant upside risk through the summer. A calendar spread, selling a May or June contract while buying an August contract, could be an effective way to play this dynamic.

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