CURRENCIES:

• Observations of increasing inflation and wage pressures.
• Limited potential for USD/JPY to rise further.
• Guidance on trading USD/JPY available in a complimentary guide.

Economic Insights:

• Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hideki Murai of Japan notes early signs of inflation and wage increases, hinting at a possible shift from Japan’s long-standing loose monetary policy.
• Murai advocates for economic revitalization through growth and wage increases, indicating a move towards a more sustainable economic model.
• Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata expresses optimism about reaching the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Market Movements:

• Recent statements have slightly increased expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with a 40% chance of a hike at the upcoming meeting. However, June is viewed as a more probable time for exiting negative interest rates.
• USD/JPY is trading just above the 150 mark, with significant resistance at the 151.90 level making further increases challenging.
• The currency pair shows more potential for a downward movement, with several support levels identified before reaching the 145 area.

Trading Sentiment:

• Retail trader data shows a low percentage of net-long positions, suggesting a possible rise in USD/JPY prices based on contrarian market sentiment.

STOCK MARKET:

Market Summary:

• U.S. stock markets ended the day lower amid concerns over potential interest rate cuts and shifts in major tech stocks, collectively known as the “Magnificent Seven.”
• The Nasdaq Composite led the decline, falling approximately 1.7%, influenced by decreases in Apple and Tesla shares.
• The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dropped over 1%.

Key Company Movements:

• Apple faced a downturn after reports of a 24% decrease in iPhone sales in China and a recent $2 billion EU antitrust fine.
• Tesla’s shares fell due to a halt in operations at its Berlin Gigafactory, compounded by shipping concerns and competition in China.

Currency Fluctuations:

• Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, surpassing $68,789, but then fell 10%, stabilizing around $62,000 per coin.

Investor Sentiment and Federal Reserve Expectations:

• Investor optimism wanes as tech sector gains seem to plateau, affecting market momentum.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve easing, predicting only one rate cut this year.
• All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming congressional testimony for indications of future monetary policy.

Corporate Earnings Highlight:

• Target’s earnings exceeded expectations, resulting in a share price increase of over 10%.

Sector Spotlight:

• CrowdStrike’s shares jumped 17% following its earnings report, which surpassed expectations and provided strong future guidance. The company’s performance contributed to a nearly 40% increase in its stock price since the year’s start.

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Dear Client,

The adjustment of DST will be commencing on March 10th.

Please consider below carefully:
The trading sessions of some products on MT4/MT5 will be changed as follows.

Please find the table below for more information.

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

CURRENCIES:

US Dollar’s Uncertain Direction Ahead of Key Events

• The US dollar shows no clear trend as it awaits significant US events.
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s upcoming testimony to Congress is a potential volatility trigger.

Technical Analysis on Major Currency Pairs

• The article provides a technical outlook for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD pairs.

Mixed Performance Against Major Counterparts

• Despite some gains, the US dollar’s appeal is inconsistent, even with rising US Treasury rates boosting it in theory.

Market Caution Due to Packed Economic Calendar

• Traders are wary of taking significant positions due to a busy economic schedule that could increase market volatility, including ISM services data, Powell’s Congressional testimony, and the US NFP report.

Focus on Powell’s Testimony

• Powell is expected to maintain a stance of no immediate need for easing monetary policy, following stagnant progress on disinflation from recent CPI, PPI, and PCE data.

• A hawkish surprise from Powell could raise yields and support the US dollar.

STOCK MARKET:

Stock Market Retreats from Record Highs

• S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines amid investor caution.

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and upcoming jobs report could challenge recent equity gains.

Impact on Major Indexes

• S&P 500 slightly down, breaking its streak of weekly wins.

• Dow Jones drops by 0.2%; Nasdaq falls by 0.4%, influenced by declines in Apple and Tesla shares.

Tech Sector Rally and Bubble Concerns

• Nasdaq’s recent high fueled by AI-driven tech stock run-up.

• Nvidia’s valuation reaches $2 trillion, raising bubble concerns, though not all analysts are alarmed.

Cryptocurrency and Commodities Performance

• Bitcoin approaches record highs with over 7% gain.

• Gold futures hit a record, with April contracts at $2126.3 per ounce.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 surpasses 40,000 level for the first time.

Upcoming Economic Indicators

• Powell’s testimony and February jobs data anticipated to influence interest rate decisions and economic outlook.

Regulatory Actions and Market Movements

• EU fines Apple $2 billion over App Store restrictions, impacting its shares.

• Super Micro Computer surges before joining S&P 500; Macy’s stock up after increased buyout offer.

• Spirit Airlines and JetBlue stocks fluctuate following the termination of their merger agreement.

Start your CFD Shares Trading journey with VT Markets now!

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Economic news: No notable economic releases.

Earnings: Gitlab (GTLB), Stitch Fix (SFIX), ThredUp (TDUP)

CURRENCIES:

Gold Breakout and Market Volatility Ahead: With central bank decisions and the U.S. jobs report on the horizon, this week is poised for potential market shifts.

Tuesday’s Focus on U.S. Services: The ISM Services PMI for February is expected to show a slight decline to 53.0. Any significant variance could influence the U.S. dollar by affecting FOMC rate expectations.

Central Bank Decisions on Wednesday:

• The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its current interest rate, with attention on any hints regarding future rate policies.
• Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress will provide insights into the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, particularly regarding rate cuts.

ECB Decision and Powell’s Testimony on Thursday:

• No rate changes expected from the ECB, but a dovish stance could pressure the euro.
• Powell’s second testimony to the Senate, following Wednesday’s address, may not offer new insights.

U.S. Jobs Report on Friday: The nonfarm payrolls report is anticipated to show 200K jobs added in February. Strong job growth could delay the Fed’s rate cuts, affecting the U.S. dollar and gold prices, whereas weak growth could prompt a dovish Fed outlook, potentially boosting gold.

STOCK MARKET:

Stock Market Records: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 marking a significant rising streak for the first time since 1971, as noted by Deutsche Bank.

Key Events Ahead: The stock market’s rally faces tests with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony and the February jobs report. Additional focus will be on services sector activity and job openings updates.

Earnings Reports: With most S&P 500 companies having reported, notable earnings from Target, Costco, and Kroger are anticipated in the coming week.

Federal Reserve Update: Jerome Powell is scheduled for his semi-annual monetary policy testimony, which will be closely watched for insights on the US economy, inflation, and interest rate cut expectations. Markets anticipate three rate cuts starting in June.

Labor Market Outlook: The February jobs report, highlighting nonfarm payroll additions and the unemployment rate, will be critical. A strong labor market is essential for smooth policy shifts and avoiding a recession.

Earnings Season Wrap-up: The S&P 500 shows a 4% earnings growth in the fourth quarter, indicating the second consecutive quarter of growth. Analysts have made smaller-than-average downward revisions for the current quarter’s earnings estimates.

Market Momentum: Despite expectations of a volatile start to 2024, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their best February since 2015. Historical trends suggest continued positive momentum for the stock market through the year.

Start your CFD Shares Trading journey with VT Markets now!

As we step into the week commencing March 4th, anticipation fills the financial sphere for a flurry of significant economic disclosures. Investors and policymakers alike brace themselves for a cascade of reports set to influence the Federal Reserve’s trajectory leading up to the forthcoming FOMC meeting on March 19-20. All eyes are fixed on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees, a session historically known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, promising to command considerable attention.  

This testimony is eagerly awaited for any signals indicating shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. In an environment where the Federal Reserve maintains a firm grip on the federal funds target rate range of 5.25-5.50 percent to rein in inflation and ensure price stability, Powell’s remarks will be scrutinized for any hints of policy adjustments. Despite strides made in controlling inflation, the Fed’s dual mandate urges caution in loosening monetary policy, particularly with the tight labor market’s potential to spur wage inflation. 

Against expectations of tempered economic growth, the imminent Beige Book release holds the promise of offering invaluable anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across the 12 Districts. While recent data suggest a resilient US economy buoyed by robust consumer spending and a strong labor market, striking a balance between nurturing growth and preventing inflation remains a nuanced challenge. 

This week also heralds the arrival of the monthly employment report for February, with analysts projecting a slight moderation in nonfarm payroll growth, yet underscoring the enduring strength of the labor market fundamentals. As businesses grapple with recruitment hurdles, the interplay between job vacancies, wage pressures, and inflation dynamics assumes critical significance for market strategies. 

For forex traders and market analysts at VT Markets, these unfolding events carry paramount importance. The impending economic indicators and Powell’s testimony not only provide insights into the US economic outlook but also wield significant implications for currency markets and trading strategies. As we embark on this pivotal week, remaining informed and adaptable will be imperative for navigating the evolving market landscape. 

Key Takeaways: 

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony could offer new insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. 
• The Beige Book and the monthly employment report will provide further clarity on the US economic health and labor market dynamics. 
• Market participants should remain vigilant, adapting their strategies in response to the unfolding economic indicators and central bank policies. 

Stay connected with VT Markets for real-time analysis and insights on how these developments impact the forex market and trading opportunities. 

CURRENCIES:

· Gold prices surged past the $2,040 mark on Thursday, hitting their highest since early February, though the rise was tempered by a strong U.S. dollar.

· The uptick in gold’s value was partly driven by a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, following an economic report that matched expectations. The January core PCE deflator reported a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, aligning with forecasts.

· Market sentiment was influenced by recent CPI and PPI data, leading to concerns over inflation. However, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric meeting predictions provided a boost to gold investors, encouraging them to increase their positions.

· Future Outlook: Investors should be cautious, as the initial enthusiasm from Thursday’s gold price rally might wane. The slow pace of disinflation and more relaxed financial conditions could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone its monetary policy easing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices.

STOCK MARKET:

· Stocks climbed on Friday following positive US inflation data that alleviated concerns over interest rate hikes, leading to record highs on Wall Street.

· Rate-sensitive technology stocks drove gains, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rising 0.4% and US equity futures showing increases. The S&P 500 recorded its 14th record of the year, while the Nasdaq 100 reached a new peak, partly thanks to Nvidia Corp’s record close.

· The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, personal consumption expenditures, rose at its fastest in nearly a year in January, aligning with economists’ predictions. This, along with jobless claims data indicating a softening labor market, boosted market sentiment.

· Treasuries remained stable after two days of gains, and the dollar index showed little change. The yen depreciated against the dollar following comments from the Bank of Japan Governor, hinting at delayed interest rate hikes.

· China’s factory activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in February, reflecting ongoing demand challenges, despite a rebound in non-manufacturing activity driven by increased travel and tourism.

· The ongoing slump in China’s home sales highlighted persistent issues in the real estate sector, with a 60% decline in new home sales from major companies compared to the previous year.

· The US inflation report supported the view of a continuing disinflationary trend, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024.

· Federal Reserve officials expressed varying views on the timing of interest rate cuts, balancing the need to manage inflation with economic strength indicators.

· Bitcoin maintained its value around $61,000, buoyed by significant inflows into BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Bitcoin Trust.

· Oil prices were poised for a slight weekly increase, with OPEC+ considering extending supply cuts, reflecting ongoing market strength.

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