US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to speak on China trade talks at 0700 GMT, a timing that coincides with China’s usual announcements on international matters. This situation could create headline risks, warranting attention.

Progress in Swiss Discussions

Bessent remarked that substantial progress was made in the US-China trade discussions. Conducted in Switzerland with vice-level Chinese officials and Ambassador Jamieson, the talks were deemed productive. President Trump has been briefed on the developments, with more details expected to be disclosed in the upcoming briefing.

Bessent’s scheduled statement, aligned so precisely with Beijing’s habitual external communications schedule, is not coincidental. It may have been designed to respond to an expected release or to preempt one. Diplomatic choreography at this hour of the morning often signals a desire to keep pace with, or even steer, financial and political narratives during Asian market hours. For derivative traders, the pre-market timing is as much a message in itself as the content of any announcement.

The talks in Switzerland, marked by direct involvement of figures such as Ambassador Jamieson and Chinese vice-level officials, suggest more than just procedural check-ins. If both Art Basel and a low-key diplomatic venue are used for formal negotiations, that would imply real movement beneath the surface. When the Secretary phrases progress as “substantial,” we can infer that an agreement is far enough along to begin softening public opposition or introducing expectations to the market.

President Trump has already been updated, which gives us a narrow window of informational asymmetry before fuller disclosures are made public. Once Bessent speaks, that buffer closes. Reaction in rates and FX could therefore arrive not during the call, but in the price action leading up to it. Timing decisions around this will need to take into account options positioning that was likely built ahead of tonight’s Asia open. Watch closely for volume in front-end contracts, particularly where political headlines feed into duration uncertainty.

European Market Inclusion

It’s also worth noting the choice of delivering remarks in GMT hours—this puts Europe directly in earshot. We interpret this as a deliberate attempt to include European markets in the messaging, perhaps to gauge appetite for coordinated policy gestures or to calm bond market nerves around macro impacts. That would influence short-term gamma strategies, particularly where Central European rate expectations remain loosely anchored.

With so much hinging on messaging rather than concrete shifts, it becomes harder to rely on conventional data flow. Instead, we’ve been examining positioning sentiment and optionality around USDCNH pairs and short-dated vol, which present more immediate signals of how professional money is adjusting.

One would do best not to ignore base case planning around uncertainty premiums. As markets digest not just the content but also the tone and intent behind a carefully timed disclosure, reflexive reactions in implied volatility and term structure behaviour warrant close tracking. Let’s be clear—this type of event has trigger potential far beyond the trade desk.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) have risen for the third straight session, reaching approximately $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian trading on Monday. This follows news of Pan American Silver’s acquisition of MAG Silver Corp, valued at about $2.1 billion.

This deal provides Pan American Silver access to a 44% stake in the Juanicipio Silver mine in Mexico. The transaction has been approved by both companies and is set to close in late 2025.

Geopolitical tensions contribute to Silver’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. India and Pakistan continue to experience tension, and Ukraine’s call for a ceasefire with Russia was dismissed by Moscow.

However, Silver’s upward trajectory might be restricted due to the easing of safe-haven demand. Positive US-China trade discussions have buoyed optimism, with formal negotiations planned and progress reported by both sides.

The Federal Reserve’s emphasis on inflation and labour market risks further affects Silver prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ruled out preemptive rate cuts despite economic concerns linked to tariffs.

Silver attracts interest as a historical store of value and a medium of exchange. Its price is influenced by geopolitical instability, interest rates, the US Dollar’s strength, and industrial demand.

The recent upswing in silver to just shy of the $33 per troy ounce mark reflects a sharp acceleration in short-term momentum, not merely supported by geopolitical unease but further reinforced by real corporate movement in the sector. The acquisition by Pan American, acquiring nearly half of the key Mexican asset, should not be interpreted as a one-off transaction. We’re watching a business align itself more tightly with physical reserves, a move that tends to underpin market confidence in tangible backing.

That said, we can’t ignore the more buoyant trade rhetoric emerging from the US and China. There’s reason to believe that if formalised agreements gather pace, much of the fear premium priced into precious metals like silver may soften. This makes it less likely we’ll see overly aggressive upside without a fresh trigger. Recent high-level comments about progress should temper any aggressive positioning aimed at hedging outright risk, particularly as newsflow stabilises rather than escalates.

From a monetary standpoint, Powell’s comments last week hold weight. His refusal to bow to pressure for preemptive easing tells us inflation remains far from tamed in central bank eyes. Whether markets agree or not is another matter, but for traders of derivatives, it’s the implied forward curve and rate expectations that count. Any surprises in economic data that tie Powell’s hands could trigger exaggerated market responses, given current speculative longs.

Meanwhile, the dollar hasn’t weakened persistently, which suggests the metal’s rally may have found more legs from temporary safe-haven flows and repositioning around global events. The dollar’s resilience, for now at least, implies commodity-linked currencies continue to face headwinds. Silver, priced in dollars, walks a tightrope when the greenback firms, acting both as a brake and a rebalancer when moves become overextended.

Positioning shows an increase in futures interest, but not at panic levels. This isn’t a full chase higher; it’s more like cautious reallocation, possibly encouraged by anticipation of tighter supply. The industrial side of demand hasn’t shifted dramatically just yet, though if manufacturing data in Asia and Europe begin to firm further into the summer months, physical consumption could finally meet speculative enthusiasm.

In the near term, it’s going to come down to how convincing the recovery narratives in global manufacturing hold up. Watch to see if forward-looking PMI numbers improve into June. If they disappoint, silver’s industrial credentials take a back seat.

It’s not useful to expect a one-way move. Price swings are being shaped by contrasting themes—real-world tension vs economic normalisation, speculative appetite vs foundational fundamentals. We are tracking each with equal attention.

Keep an eye on real interest rates, not just nominal ones. Rising real yields, especially in the US, tend to pressure non-yielding assets like silver. If inflation data stays firm without a proportional rise in wage growth, suppression of real yields could become a factor again.

Timing will be key; macro news flow tends to front-run broader sentiment. Adjust sizing if volatility increases on headline risk. Reassess hedge weighting if forward guidance from the Fed begins to show cracks or becomes internally inconsistent.

The upcoming week will feature key economic data, such as Australian labour market statistics and U.S. inflation and retail sales figures. Monday anticipates minimal activity, whereas Tuesday will see Japan’s BoJ summary, U.K.’s claimant count, earnings index, and unemployment rate, alongside U.S. inflation data. On Wednesday, Australia will reveal its wage price index, with Thursday bringing its employment change figures, and the U.K. disclosing GDP data. The U.S. will focus on PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims, with Fed Chair Powell speaking at a conference.

In the U.S., core CPI m/m is anticipated at 0.3%, up from 0.1% last month, with CPI y/y steady at 2.4%. Recent inflation readings were influenced by volatile sectors like energy and travel. Analysts suggest tariff effects, notably on auto prices, may begin to drive core goods inflation. Though, full tariff impacts remain unseen.

Australian Labor Market Update

Australia’s wage price index is expected at 0.8% q/q, slightly above the previous 0.7%, but wage growth remains subdued. Employment is projected to rise by 20.9K, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate has shifted from a peak of 67.2% to 66.7–66.8%, aligning with softer population growth.

In the U.S, retail sales are forecasted flat at 0.0% m/m, after a 1.4% prior increase. Recent gains in retail sales, driven by vehicle purchases anticipating tariffs, signal strong consumer momentum. Future spending depends on whether March’s strength represented front-loaded demand, with auto sales suggesting continued robustness.

Markets look poised for a week shaped by a busy data calendar, and a clearer picture will emerge as we move through key regional releases. With price pressures still drawing market attention, Tuesday’s U.S. inflation figures could provide a valuable gauge of where we stand. The marginal rise expected in monthly core inflation—up to 0.3% from 0.1%—reflects the impact of more persistent categories. While energy prices and travel costs remain unpredictable, developments in auto prices, connected to tariff changes, are beginning to influence the broader data backdrop more noticeably. We see this as a prelude to firmer goods-related inflation later in the year.

Retail conditions, particularly in the States, are becoming more uneven. After unusually strong data in March—likely fuelled by early vehicle purchases prompted by tariff warnings—the flat print now anticipated signals a potential shift. The key point here isn’t weakness in demand, but whether earlier enthusiasm cannibalised future spending. If shoppers pulled forward purchases, we might see quieter months ahead, especially in durable goods. Still, the strength in underlying metrics, such as non-auto categories, will offer more ground-level insight on true household sentiment.

Fed Chair Powell’s Remarks

Powell’s remarks on Thursday will tie together the week’s broader themes. Recent speeches have signalled caution, not least because inflation is proving stickier than first projected. We’ll be watching closely for any indication on how policymakers plan to respond to sustained consumer activity or an uptick in prices driven by imported goods costs. Following the last Fed meeting, where the path forward was left largely unchanged, comments delivered this week could either reinforce expectations or unsettle near-term rate bets.

In the U.K., the focus will turn to the labour market, which has begun to show early stages of slack. Tuesday’s employment and earnings data will help confirm whether the recent uptick in jobless claims marks a broader trend. Of particular interest will be the pace of wage growth—higher average earnings may signal inflation risks that haven’t yet worked through the system. GDP data out Thursday may reinforce this view if domestic output keeps losing pace relative to services costs. Should the domestic trend continue, it adds support to the likelihood of monetary easing down the road.

Meanwhile, Australia remains a study in balance. Despite limited wage gains—the expected quarterly reading is barely up from the previous figure—employment growth continues at a moderate pace. At face value, a 20.9K jobs gain with steady unemployment appears healthy, but waning population growth has distorted headline results. Participation is subtly declining, hovering below its own recent peak, masking the softness beneath. Any deviation this week, in either the wage price index or employment change, may quickly feed into rate expectations for the Reserve Bank.

In Japan, central bank minutes released Tuesday may generate some local market moves, particularly if there are any signs of surprise disagreement among monetary authorities. Given attempts to gradually shift away from ultra-loose policy, even modest changes can ripple across yen positioning. Although volumes are typically light earlier in the week, headline-sensitive conditions mean thin trading may lead to outsized moves.

Overall, this week presents a series of measured tests. Reaction will depend not only on the numbers themselves but also on how markets digest the broader implications—whether inflation remains persistent enough to deter cuts, whether growth is slowing without a safety net, and whether consumers have truly adjusted their behaviour ahead of time.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

US-China talks over the weekend have reportedly been positive, with Trump stating a productive meeting took place. Unlike previous instances, China has not refuted US claims and maintains an optimistic stance, suggesting a change in approach.

Both nations are expected to issue a rare joint statement following discussions in Switzerland, though the timing remains uncertain. China has metaphorically referred to the outcome as “delicious,” implying the eventual announcement will be highly favourable on a global scale.

Market Reactions

Market reactions have been positive as a result of the meeting, though the specifics remain crucial for future negotiations. Reports suggest an “economic and trade consultation mechanism” was proposed, serving as the foundation for ongoing US-China discussions.

The immediate implications for current tariffs, including existing 145% levels, are unclear. Trump hinted at a “total reset,” but specifics remain ambiguous regarding negotiation intentions and tariff alterations. A joint statement might suggest easing tariffs to facilitate negotiations within a certain timeline.

Observers are cautious, draw comparisons to the unsuccessful Phase One trade deal from Trump’s first term, and anticipate further negotiations in the context of ongoing decoupling between the two nations.

What we know so far is that discussions between the United States and China have moved past confrontation and into something that, at least externally, looks more constructive. Unlike in previous cycles, where conflicting public statements often followed high-level meetings, this time Beijing has not contradicted Washington’s account. Instead, there’s a noticeable shift — a clear willingness to present a unified front. For those of us watching policy shifts from a short-term exposure standpoint, this matters. A coordinated narrative implies fewer disruptive surprises.

Still, nothing concrete has been laid out yet. No tariff rollbacks have been officially detailed, and the so-called “reset” remains an idea, not an action. Underneath the warm diplomatic phrases, tariffs are still as high as 145%, providing little immediate relief for those in export-sensitive sectors. While rhetoric is softening, positioning should consider that material changes tend to lag behind diplomatic statements. Talk, however friendly, has yet to change the pricing environment.

Economic And Trade Consultation Mechanism

There are murmurs of an “economic and trade consultation mechanism” being set up — a phrase which might sound vague at first, but we should recognise it for what it could be: a procedural framework, likely with institutional staffing and monthly check-ins. It would not exist purely for appearances. If implemented, such a structure could start to formalise communication channels and reduce the likelihood of erratic policy changes. This has potential to dampen volatility, but only if terms are binding or at least regular. So far, timelines or enforceability haven’t been verified.

The key point here is timing. Sporadic comments from Washington suggest goodwill, yet a joint statement from both parties — something rarely issued in past standoffs — hasn’t materialised. Its delay isn’t surprising; these declarations take careful assembly. But without it, traders should not treat risk momentum as one-directional. We understand from past cycles that political sway can reverse sharply, especially when driven by domestic agendas. As such, we aren’t adjusting hedging strategies just yet.

Comparisons to earlier trade accords do carry some weight. Observers looking back at the Phase One agreement will recall how early optimism led to badly misplaced expectations. Those who got ahead of events then were forced into defensive positions not long after. At the time, there was similarly suggested cooperation, but the outcomes were far less than what was anticipated. This context should shape our approach now. We are watching for follow-through, not just friendliness.

Policies linked to decoupling initiatives are still alive, particularly within technology transfer areas. Many of these measures require legislative reversal to unwind. Because of this, any strategic moves based on scaling back of enforcement or changes in trade regimes should be based on documentable progress — not statements alone. Until there is written confirmation, paired with defined timelines for tariff reductions or procedural reforms, positions reliant on softer trade exposures still carry high directional risk.

It is also worth pointing out that media tone has lightened — this isn’t without influence. Positive headlines often prompt mechanical response from models and high-frequency systems, which can amplify short momentum moves. But headline optimism not backed by treaties or formally signed protocols tends to fade once trading desks reprice forward risk. We have seen this occur repeatedly in prior cycles. And recent comments point to the idea that this optimism is about future possibility, not yet about concrete change.

Restraint in positioning remains the preferred route in the short window. Active strategies are better served by waiting for terms to be released, preferably in joint form, and then assessing not only the content but also which arms of government are set to enforce the terms. Until then, synthetic spreads and volatility structures should be handled conservatively, especially in currency-linked and auto-related exposures.

We should be prepared for a sharp response once clarity arrives — but not presume that delay equals failure. These processes are slow by design, and patience is needed. For now, until words turn into mechanisms and figures, actions should be prudent and nimble, guided by levels rather than storylines.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold prices in the Philippines dropped on Monday. The price per gram was PHP 5,846.05, a decrease from PHP 5,929.07 on Friday.

For Gold measured per tola, the cost decreased to PHP 68,187.17, down from PHP 69,155.48. In terms of a Troy Ounce, the price was recorded at PHP 181,832.60.

Role Of Central Banks

Central banks are the largest holders of Gold, using it to bolster currency during unstable times. They purchased 1,136 tonnes in 2022, the biggest annual purchase recorded.

Gold typically has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and Treasuries. When the Dollar weakens, Gold usually rises as a hedge against economic instability.

Variations in Gold prices occur due to geopolitical factors or fears of recession. The relationship with interest rates is also crucial as Gold prices often increase with lower rates and fall with higher ones.

With prices seeing a notable dip from Friday’s levels, those of us closely monitoring short-term momentum can begin factoring in a recalibration of positioning. The fall from PHP 5,929.07 to PHP 5,846.05 per gram isn’t just nominal—it reflects a broader response to external pressures, particularly stemming from recent shifts in global sentiment around inflation expectations and currency strength. When viewed per tola, the drop to PHP 68,187.17—down nearly a full thousand pesos—underlines the softening demand or waning of speculative pushes that previously kept higher bid levels stable.

From what we’ve observed, fluctuations like these often follow cues from movements in the Dollar and demand for safe-haven assets. It helps to consider the Dollar’s recent firmness, which has been nudging Gold lower despite modest geopolitical tremors. The inverse dynamic there isn’t just theoretical—it’s one we see play out in real time. For traders operating on leverage, this can affect margin requirements and execution timing, especially if volatility remains below average and directional moves are brief but persistent.

Impact Of Interest Rates

Last week’s numbers still echo the impact of prominent institutional behaviour. In 2022, global central banks—who by far dominate physical accumulation—purchased over 1,100 tonnes of Gold. That set a new record, highlighting how state players respond when inflation hedges become more attractive than sovereign debt. These reserve managers aren’t reacting impulsively—they are building buffers against long-term currency erosion and diversifying away from traditional holdings in uncertain periods.

Rates, however, are not backing Bulls at the moment. Higher interest rates tend to increase the yield on cash and comparable short-term instruments, undercutting the appeal of holding metals that generate no income. If policymakers reinforce hawkish stances and issue stronger rate guidance in the coming weeks, we’ll likely see continued pressure. Traders focusing on derivatives tied to Gold’s forward curve must consider how expectations for real yields will develop, particularly if inflation metrics in the upcoming cycle fail to cool.

Fears of recession, if carried further by weaker manufacturing data or heightened tensions in Eastern Europe, could provide temporary relief, especially across longer-dated contracts. But that depends entirely on where the Dollar moves next.

We’re tracking subtle shifts more than sharp turns right now—which means acting quickly on smaller breakouts while maintaining discipline on expiry and leverage risk. Directional conviction is lower than earlier in the quarter. Best to remain descriptive in our execution—avoiding overextension—especially when cross-asset volatility levels remain contained. Much of the movement this week might come not from spot changes, but expectations around when rate cuts could plausibly resume.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Bitcoin futures are trading at around $104,265, slightly below the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $104,530. This indicates mild bearish momentum, though it is tentative since the session is still ongoing.

For May 12, 2025, a bullish position is above $104,735, surpassing the developing Value Area High (VAH) of $104,630. Bullish targets are $105,200, $105,540, and $108,200. A bearish position is below $103,920, under today’s Value Area Low (VAL) at $104,070, with targets of $103,590, $103,140, $102,360, $101,850, and $100,450.

The analysis uses volume profile strategies, pointing to areas with significant historical trading activity. VWAP serves as an average price level weighted by trade volume, acting as a benchmark in price trends.

Bitcoin has recently crossed the $100,000 level, a major psychological barrier. Markets often revisit such milestones, potentially causing volatility. Medium-term trends suggest possible consolidation around $100,000, while the long-term outlook leans towards revisiting the historical high near $110,150.

Traders should watch key levels, considering partial profit-taking and remaining flexible. Proper risk management is essential, using tradeCompass analysis to guide decisions while adapting to market conditions.

This analysis outlines the present tension between price levels and traded volume. The marginally lower futures price compared to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) hints at declining confidence in current upward momentum, though the market has not yet made a decisive move. The reference to a developing value area reveals where the majority of activity has clustered—above or below this zone will likely shape the next direction.

We’ve taken note of how traders have responded near the $104,735 and $103,920 range. These figures become pivot points not because of chart patterns alone, but due to the thick concentration of past trades, suggesting they matter to institutions and algorithmic strategies alike. Once price moves away from these pockets—either above or below—the next levels tend to appear quickly, leading to bursts of activity.

Lu suggests entry above or below these boundaries, with clear exits offensively positioned. The upside path, mapped out decisively at $105,200, then $105,540 and even up to $108,200, creates a setup that could gather steam swiftly if buyers step in. On the downside, however, we have dense target placements every few hundred dollars. These are no throwaway zones—they’re likely tied to prior high-volume floors that were eroded and are now vulnerable again.

The crossing over $100,000 has placed Bitcoin into an unfamiliar psychological range. When assets cross such well-watched prices, they tend to pause and recalibrate as traders reassess. That behaviour is what drove volume surges in prior sessions and is expected again here. Once price stabilises above or below this level with conviction, we might see larger moves that don’t reverse as quickly.

Meanwhile, median-term strategies should expect tightening ranges. That would point to rotational play—fading the extremes and holding limited exposure overnight. However, long-term signals still lean quietly towards higher ground near $110,150, reflecting broader risk appetite rather than short-term exhaustion.

As we’ve observed, large moves don’t typically begin without a reaction from VWAP or developing value zones. These are tools which help us decide whether recent price moves are gathering follow-through or simply returning to fair value. Without that context, positions become guesswork.

In practice, managing entries selectively—at known price clusters rather than chasing strength—has produced fewer whipsaws. Fast entries and partial exits into strength have worked where levels were clearly mapped. Breakout entries into illiquid zones above $108,000—or below $100,000—require reduced sizing due to velocity risk.

Risk control remains tight. We’ve maintained hard stops just beyond low-volume pockets, allowing positions room to breathe yet tightening faster near expected exit zones to guard gains. Trading turns less forgiving near trapped volume and quickly punishes hesitation when volatility returns.

Reading order flow this week may carry more weight than usual. We’ll allow reaction time at these areas instead of guessing intent. Patience here doesn’t mean inactivity—it means choosing carefully, showing up where the tape turns active, and letting earlier planning dictate size.

The EUR/USD pair starts the week weaker due to a modest US Dollar increase supported by optimism over a US-China trade deal. Despite this, prices remain above the 1.1200 mark, as traders await further details from the US-China joint statement.

A recent decline below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart signals potential bearish movement. Oscillators are in bearish territory and gaining negative traction on the daily chart, indicating a downward path for the EUR/USD pair.

Resilience Below 1.1200 Level

Prices show resilience below the 1.1200 level, which coincides with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A decisive break here could lead the pair towards the 1.1110-1.1100 area, with intermediate support near the 1.1130-1.1125 region.

The 1.1250 zone presents an immediate hurdle for EUR/USD. Reclaiming the 1.1300 level could face resistance near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the 1.1350-1.1355 range, acting as a pivotal point for the Euro’s trajectory.

The Euro is the currency for Eurozone countries and is the second most traded currency worldwide. The European Central Bank manages monetary policy and interest rates, which affects the Euro’s value.

What we’re seeing in the EUR/USD pair is a mild softening, which has been driven by an uptick in the Dollar – itself buoyed by constructive developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. Even so, the pair has managed to hold steady just above the 1.1200 zone, a level that’s been tested before but hasn’t given way yet. Traders are evidently taking a cautious approach, waiting for more clarity in the form of official communication from the people involved in the negotiations.

Technical Analysis

Now, turning to technicals. The retreat beneath the 100-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart isn’t encouraging. It suggests that any bullish momentum we had has faltered, and there’s some downside pressure building. When we look at the oscillators – those momentum indicators on the daily time frame – they’re painting a bearish picture. They’ve not only crossed below neutral levels but are also sliding further into negative territory. This tends to happen before the price picks up speed in the same direction, and in this case, that direction appears to be lower.

Support appears to be forming near the 1.1130 to 1.1125 zone – that’s just above the 1.1110 region, and traders will likely be watching those levels to see whether a floor forms or if price slices through, triggering another wave of selling. What adds weight to this area is its alignment with prior lows – it’s acted as a buffer before, and if it breaks now, expect some acceleration to the downside.

That said, resilience near current levels should not be dismissed lightly. The price has repeatedly shown an ability to hold above the 200-period SMA on the same four-hour chart, tucked just under the 1.1200 figure. It could indicate consolidation rather than a breakdown, but it’s not a level to assume will hold without backup from improving sentiment or a shift in fundamentals.

On the other side of the equation, attempts to reclaim lost ground will likely meet headwinds near 1.1250. Beyond that, the next technical hurdle is positioned in the 1.1350 to 1.1355 zone, guarded closely by the 100-period SMA, which has started acting more like a ceiling than a support line. A decisive close above that area would likely see a rethink in positioning, signalling a pause – if not a reversal – in the downward trajectory we’ve been watching recently.

The Euro, naturally, is heavily influenced by policy settings across the Euro Area, particularly those set in Frankfurt. The policy environment hasn’t shifted dramatically, but with growth concerns still present, the stance remains conservative. That monetary outlook, when compared with its overseas counterpart, sways interest differentials in favour of the Dollar, adding further context to why the pair is behaving the way it is.

Traders dealing in interest rate-sensitive assets will likely want to monitor this region closely. Price stability at current levels will matter more in the coming sessions, particularly if sentiment around trade developments starts to cool or surprise. For now, the weight lies slightly on the downside, but that can shift swiftly if external factors move.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

FX option expiries are noted for 12 May at 10 AM, New York time. For EUR/USD, the 1.1250 level is noteworthy. While it has no technical links, the expiries are close to the gap closure level as the pair opened with a gap down.

Positive US-China talks have strengthened the dollar. However, today’s expiries might not be very impactful due to other factors. Market players are waiting for a joint statement from the US and China about their future steps.

Market Impact of FX Options

For USD/JPY, the $145.65 level is also noted but lacks technical relevance. The overall impact of these expiries could be minimal, with the dollar and risk sentiment being larger influences on price movements. Headline risks still play a central role in guiding market behaviour.

The overall risk mood is optimistic as equities climb higher, but dollar gains remain modest. There’s a difference in terms of current exuberance levels. It remains to be seen which side is correct by day’s end, as the markets will adjust accordingly to the unfolding events.

Reading over the earlier content, we can infer several layers worth unpacking. Today’s FX options expiries, though specified with particular strikes on EUR/USD and USD/JPY, appear unlikely to steer the market in the immediate term. The EUR/USD expiry near 1.1250, albeit technically insignificant, lines up with the area where a weekend gap might close. So while options flow near that region could add some gravity, price action will likely respond more fervently to wider macro signals or intraday momentum.

There’s been a mild dollar bid, nudged along by encouraging tones from diplomatic channels between the United States and China. The fact that both countries are edging toward a public declaration of coordination on trade and broader economic fronts introduces tailwinds for risk sentiment, even as exact statements remain pending. We, as observers and participants, should recognise that the dollar’s moves are tethered at present less to one-off options flow and more to the broader mood surrounding geopolitical cooperation. Equity markets are hinting at a preference for optimism, even as FX treads more carefully.

Role of Expiries and Market Sentiment

Looking at USD/JPY, there’s a listed expiry around 145.65, and once again, it sits without technical framing. These kinds of levels, lacking chart-based context or recent volume confluence, tend not to drive action by themselves. Expiries like these can still slow price motion temporarily if order books thin out close by, but it’s unlikely in this instance. The overriding dynamic remains tethered to sentiment around risk appetite and the dollar’s shifting performance.

Headline-driven sessions, particularly those without major economic releases, tend to exaggerate reactions at times. We’re seeing that today. Equities continue pressing higher, which usually points to a friendlier global risk tone, yet the dollar’s strength remains unusually persistent. It’s this divergence between equity enthusiasm and FX caution that may be telling us something about positioning. Perhaps it’s reflecting hedging rather than outright buying.

Given that, the importance today lies less in following any arbitrary number on the board and more in staying attuned to the alignment—or misalignment—between cross-asset clues. Traders who are positioned in options or those monitoring implied volatility should be anchored less to expiry pricing itself and more to the timing of statements or scheduled speakers. If we do see movement, it’s likely that it will come from news flow and not from the gravity of expiring strike prices.

This kind of atmosphere typically introduces short bursts of activity, interspersed with quieter patches while the market waits for direction. That creates traps for the over-eager and opportunities for those who wait. As usual, correlation between cross assets remains one of the most reliable temp checks on which way positioning might lean next.

By late afternoon into early Asia, it should become clearer whether this current round of optimism carries broader commitment. In the meantime, staying reactive and watching how price reacts when it gets close to these labelled expiry levels will tell us whether they’re worth tracking further tomorrow—or whether they were simply background noise.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Gold prices in India experienced a decline on Monday. The per gram price fell to 8,918.24 Indian Rupees (INR), from 9,045.35 INR on Friday.

Additionally, the price per tola dropped to 104,020.50 INR, down from 105,503.20 INR at the end of last week. Other gold price measurements include 89,182.50 INR for ten grams and 277,380.30 INR per Troy Ounce.

Gold Price Dynamics

Gold prices in India are updated daily and reflect international prices adjusted for the local currency using the exchange rate. The prices are intended for reference, and actual rates might vary.

Gold is regarded as a store of value and a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Central banks, particularly from emerging economies, are the largest gold buyers, with 1,136 tonnes added to reserves in 2022.

Gold’s price is influenced by several factors, including geopolitical stability and interest rates. It has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar and Treasuries. Its price tends to rise in times of decreased interest rates or increased geopolitical tensions, while a strong US Dollar can suppress the price.

That decline in Indian gold prices—from ₹9,045.35 to ₹8,918.24 per gram—carries a message that goes beyond local supply or festive demand. It’s mirroring wider movements in global macroeconomic expectations and dollar strength, translated into rupee terms through the exchange rates. A similar downward move shows up in the tola and ounce-based quotes. These translated prices serve more as signals than execution levels, but the takeaway is clear.

This shift is part of a larger adjustment in sentiment as investors respond to mixed signals from Western economies. Recent firmness in the US Dollar is making it less attractive to hold unyielding assets like gold. As traders, we’re not just watching bullion tickers—we’re observing how the bond market is pricing in future rate paths. Yields on Treasuries have been inching higher, and that directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. It matters because it shifts flows in and out of physical assets—sentiment doesn’t need to be negative, just slightly less enthusiastic, and that alone applies downward pressure.

Liquidity and Market Sentiment

Reference buyers from prior periods, such as central banks in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America, have provided baseline demand. But their net positions don’t always move with market fluidity. They respond to multi-quarter policy outlooks. So, extrapolating future floor support from historic purchases may misguide shorter-term positioning.

There’s liquidity moving into higher-yielding exposures. This has added weight to gold’s pullback, even if only measured in small increments. And we can’t ignore the role of data surprises. Just a couple of unexpected payroll or inflation prints could steer the Federal Reserve’s tone, impacting liquidity preferences before quarter-end.

Bassett from ING pointed out last week that the inverse correlation between bullion and the US Dollar remains intact—for now. Powell’s latest remarks were carefully non-committal, which leaves the market delicately balanced. A sustained gold rebound in the short term would likely require a firm dovish turn or a geopolitical headline sharp enough to stir fear-based buying. Neither has materialised in the past fortnight.

From our side, all of this generates a more data-sensitive environment, where implied volatility across rate instruments remains elevated, and short-term directional bias may be fleeting. It’s not the season to lean heavily on directional conviction but to calmly assess how major currency fluctuations or bond auctions ripple into the metal’s pricing.

For further refinement, we should be measuring movement not only in gold spot prices but also in term structures of futures and options—what implied probabilities tell us about December’s pricing conditions may have more predictive strength than any single central bank headline.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.