As March comes to a close, markets are closely monitoring economic signals, central bank guidance, and global trade tensions. Concerns over US tariff policies have sparked a risk-off sentiment, driving gains in precious metals like gold, while oil and stock markets in the US and Europe saw notable declines.

KEY INDICATORS

US economic data

• _{The core PCE price index for February exceeded market expectations in both annual and monthly terms.}
• _{This has led traders to continue betting on two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first cut expected in July.}

Fed’s Daly on future rate cuts

• _{Federal Reserve’s Daly suggested that two rate cuts in 2025 would be a reasonable expectation.}
• _{She emphasised the need to adopt a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy, allowing industries time to adjust to tariffs.}

Trump’s remarks

• _{Greenland: Trump reiterated that he would not rule out the use of military force to acquire Greenland.}
• _{Relations with Putin: He expressed anger over Putin’s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelensky but still maintains good relations with Russia and plans to communicate with Putin again this week.}
• _{Russia sanctions: Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil, ranging from 25% to 50%, if no agreement is reached with Russia.}
• _{Iran: Trump warned that if Iran does not reach a nuclear deal with the US, military action and secondary tariffs on Iranian products would follow.}

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• _{Price action has resulted in a new all-time high of 3127.8.}
• _{There are no clear signs suggesting that the upward trend is nearing its end.}
• _{The risk/reward ratio is unfavourable for entering a buy position at the current level.}
• _{We anticipate a temporary pullback.}
• _{The 20-hour EMA is at 3092.5.}
• _{Trading volume is increasing.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 3164.5 // Target 2: 3174.5 // Expires: 1 April 2025.

EUR/USD

• _{Ended a streak of six consecutive negative daily performances.}
• _{Successfully broke above the wedge formation.}
• _{The formation’s measured move target is 1.0955.}
• _{The preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks.}
• _{The medium-term outlook remains bullish.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 1.0955 // Target 2: 1.1105 // Expires: 1 April 2025.

GER40 DAX

• _{There are no signs suggesting that the selloff is slowing down.}
• _{The level at 22,118 has proven to be crucial.}
• _{The short-term RSI has moved into negative territory.}
• _{The lack of market interest raises concerns for bullish sentiment.}
• _{We expect further losses to unfold today.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 21,601 // Target 2: 21,501 // Expires: 1 April 2025.

TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES

Market turbulence amid recession fears

• _{Concerns over a potential US recession shifted market focus towards spending data rather than inflation metrics last Friday.}
• _{Despite positive PCE data, the US dollar index fell by 0.26%, closing at 104.01.}
• _{The 10-year US Treasury yield ended at 4.2390%, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy changes, finished at 3.9220%.}
• _{US equities declined across the board, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.69%, the S&P 500 falling 1.97%, and the Nasdaq sliding 2.7%.}
• _{Major tech stocks continued their downward trend for the third consecutive trading day: Google fell 4.8%, Meta lost 4.2%, Tesla dropped 3.5%, and Apple declined 2.6%.}

Commodities react to trade war concerns

• _{Trump’s recent tariff policies heightened fears of a global trade war, driving a shift towards risk-off sentiment.}
• _{Gold surged 0.94% to a record high of USD 3,084.33 per ounce, marking its 18th all-time high this year.}
• _{However, silver declined by 0.77%, closing at USD 34.11 per ounce, as investors took profits.}
• _{Fears of a US-led tariff war triggering a global recession put downward pressure on oil prices.}
• _{WTI crude dropped 1.25% to USD 68.97 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 1.23% to USD 72.40 per barrel.}

Global equity markets follow downward trend

• _{European stock indices mirrored US losses, with Germany’s DAX 30 down by 0.96%, the UK’s FTSE 100 falling by 0.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declining by 0.92%.}
• _{The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese stocks, dropped by 3.11%.}
• _{Baidu fell 5.1%, while Bilibili declined 4.6%, contributing to the broader market weakness.}

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As we enter the week of 31 March to 4 April 2025, global markets face rising uncertainty, with US tariff announcements, inflation data, and geopolitical risks set to drive volatility across equities, forex, and commodities. Traders are bracing for potential shifts in market sentiment as these events unfold.

KEY INDICATORS

• _{US tariff announcements: On 2 April, President Trump is set to unveil new “reciprocal tariffs,” possibly including a 25% duty on imported vehicles, fuelling market uncertainty.}
• _{Economic data: US jobs report (4 April): Expected to show slower job growth, highlighting economic fragility amid trade tensions.}
• _{Inflation: PCE price index rose 2.5% YoY in February, with a 0.3% MoM increase.}
• _{Market performance: The S&P 500 is down nearly 7% from its February peak, with tech stocks leading declines.}
• _{International developments: India plans to raise 8 trillion rupees (USD 93.34B) via bond sales to manage its 4.4% fiscal deficit.}
• _{Australia: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, though markets anticipate a cut in May.}
• _{Investor sentiment: Rising volatility due to trade policy uncertainty, economic data, and geopolitical risks. Caution is advised.}

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• _{The price action has reached a new all-time high of 3085.9.}
• _{Trading volume is on the rise.}
• _{The overall trend continues to be bullish.}
• _{Given the current levels, the risk/reward ratio for entering a buy position is not favourable.}
• _{We expect a brief pullback before any further movement.}
• _{The 20-hour EMA stands at 3063.3.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 3129.5 // Target 2: 3139.5.

GER40 DAX

• _{The overall trend remains bullish.}
• _{The short-term outlook has shifted to negative.}
• _{The bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart indicates a weakening sentiment.}
• _{Selling pressure has persisted from the 50% retracement level at 22796.}
• _{Former support at 22800 now acts as resistance.}
• _{We anticipate a period of mixed and volatile trading.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 22301 // Target 2: 22201.

EUR/USD

• _{The streak of six consecutive negative daily performances has been broken.}
• _{Selling pressure was observed during the Asian session.}
• _{Key support is found at 1.0711.}
• _{We anticipate further downside and prefer to enter short positions early in the session.}
• _{Economic data releases may negatively impact the short-term technical outlook.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 1.0711 // Target 2: 1.0632.

NEWS HEADLINES

Foreign exchange

• _{US dollar (USD): The dollar edged lower as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over US tariffs and ahead of key US economic data.}
• _{Euro (EUR): The euro is on track for its most significant quarterly gain in over a year, bolstered by optimism surrounding peace prospects in Ukraine and rising German yields. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming inflation figures from France and Spain, as softer readings could influence the euro’s trajectory.}
• _{Japanese yen (JPY): The yen has strengthened, reflecting its status as a safe-haven currency amid global trade uncertainties. Additionally, higher-than-expected Tokyo inflation data for March, at 2.4% versus the anticipated 2.2%, supports the case for potential monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan.}
• _{British pound (GBP): Sterling remains steady, maintaining a 3.5% gain for the year. The UK’s economic data, including marginal growth in the fourth quarter and an unexpected rebound in retail sales, has provided support to the pound.}

Commodities and stocks

• _{US stock market: US stock futures are under pressure as investors grapple with the prospect of more tariffs from the Trump administration and await key inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation measure, rose 2.5% in February on an annual basis, aligning with expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.3%.}
• _{Gold: Gold prices have surged to a record high, surpassing USD 3,075 per ounce. This increase is driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets amid escalating trade war concerns and economic uncertainties.}
• _{Oil: Oil prices are trading nearly flat, with volatility in the energy commodities market remaining very low.}
• _{Copper: Copper prices in London have declined for a third consecutive day, sliding further below USD 10,000 a ton, impacted by the tariff threats.}
• _{European and Asian markets: European markets are experiencing small declines, while Asian markets have faced larger drops. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s benchmark index both dropped by around 2% due to concerns over auto tariffs and inflation.}
• _{Market outlook: Investors are closely watching the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, as it could provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s announcement of new “reciprocal tariffs” is generating apprehension, especially with hints at a 25% duty on imported vehicles.}
• _{Overall: Global markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by trade policy developments, economic data releases, and shifting investor sentiments.}

Asian session updates

• _{Asian financial markets experienced notable movements influenced by recent geopolitical developments and economic data releases.}
• _{Japan: The Nikkei 225 index declined nearly 2%, led by sharp drops in major automakers such as Toyota and Honda. This downturn is attributed to investor concerns over the US administration’s decision to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports, effective next week.}
• _{Hong Kong: The Hang Seng index declined by 0.6% as traders awaited further clarity on US tariff plans, particularly concerning China.}
• _{China: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.7%, reflecting investor caution amid ongoing trade tensions and awaiting further policy signals.}
• _{Gold: Gold prices reached a record high, surpassing USD 3,079.5 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade war concerns. The metal has gained more than 17% in the first quarter, marking its best quarterly performance since 1986.}
• _{Oil: Oil prices experienced slight declines due to concerns over the impact of new tariffs on the global economy. Brent crude futures were 0.24% lower at USD 73.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures decreased by 0.27% to USD 69.73.}
• _{US dollar: The dollar remained steady ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data.}
• _{Japanese yen: The yen strengthened to 150.675 per dollar.}

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Gold is rallying as trade tensions and economic risks push investors toward safe havens. With central bank policies in focus and markets bracing for potential rate cuts, gold’s momentum remains strong. Here’s what’s driving the surge.

Gold hits record-breaking highs

Gold prices soared to unprecedented levels on Friday, nearing USD 3,070 per ounce as rising concerns over trade tensions drove investors towards this safe-haven asset.

The surge came just ahead of the expected US tariffs, with President Trump reiterating his plan to impose a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars and auto parts – a move that risks escalating trade conflicts.

This uncertainty saw traders pivot towards gold, pushing XAUUSD to peak at USD 3,077.57 during the trading session before closing at USD 3,070.32, reflecting a notable upswing.

Central bank buying, ETF demand, and Fed policy in the spotlight

In addition to trade-related fears, gold’s upward momentum was fuelled by strong inflows from central banks and increased interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

This trend signals growing confidence in gold’s value as economic uncertainty lingers amid trade tensions.

Market participants are now eagerly awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Although the Fed left interest rates unchanged in its recent meeting, it maintains a dovish outlook, with two potential rate cuts expected by the end of the year.

This softer monetary stance, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, continues to bolster gold’s bullish outlook.

Technical analysis

Gold gained 0.45% on the day, closing at USD 3,070.32 after opening at USD 3,056.58.

During the session, the price climbed to a high of USD 3,077.57 before retreating slightly, ending just below a key resistance level.

Technical indicators confirm the bullish momentum. The short-term moving averages (MAs 5, 10, 30) remain firmly above the longer-term averages, suggesting sustained upward pressure.

Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26, 9) is expanding, with the MACD line (blue) positioned well above the signal line (yellow), further supporting the positive outlook.

Key price levels to watch include immediate resistance at USD 3,070.49 and support at USD 3,056.58.

Breaking above the resistance could pave the way for further gains, while a drop below the support level may signal a potential pullback or consolidation phase.

Outlook

As gold continues to break records, the combination of trade-related concerns, geopolitical instability, and a dovish Fed stance is likely to keep upward momentum intact.

However, traders should stay alert for upcoming PCE data and any shifts in Federal Reserve policy, as these factors could impact gold’s safe-haven appeal in the near term.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

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