Mid‑June brings critical central bank decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical developments that are likely to impact global markets. Investors will be focused on the Fed, BoE, BoJ, and Swiss National Bank, alongside volatility in commodities and regional equity reactions. Here’s the full snapshot.

KEY INDICATORS

Foreign exchange market

The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25–4.50% during its 17–18 June meeting, with rate cuts likely postponed to September–October as inflation nears target and the job market cools.

The Swiss National Bank is likely to deliver a 25bp rate cut during its June meeting, potentially pushing rates into negative territory at around –0.25%.

UK CPI data due on Friday is expected to shape the Bank of England’s policy stance ahead of a key statement likely on 19 June.

Commodities & equities

Brent crude rallied 4.3% — its sharpest gain since October — on renewed Middle East tensions, pushing prices close to $70 despite expectations of a surplus by year-end.

The bank maintains its forecast for oil to stay in the low‑to‑mid $60s range for 2025–26 but warns that a major Middle East crisis could drive prices up to $120–130.

With inflation softening but tariff risks lingering, investors will closely watch Fed signals and trade developments for market direction.

The FTSE 100 reached a record high of around 8,884 last week, even as UK GDP contracted by 0.3%, indicating support from global rotation and a weaker sterling.

Asian markets & key events

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.5% on 17 June, with a slower bond taper likely due to global uncertainty.

The upcoming PBOC meeting may include guidance or action on policy easing, which could loosen Asian financial conditions.

Fresh tariffs remain a major concern, as unpredictable trade moves could disrupt FX markets and equities.

The World Bank has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to around 2.3%, citing tariffs and trade barriers as major headwinds.

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• Gold is approaching a critical resistance zone around $3,403–$3,404 (5 June high).
• A sustained move above this level — with strong volume — would confirm a bullish breakout, opening the door toward record highs.
• Bullish scenario: A breakout could propel XAU/USD toward $3,435, followed by the next milestone at $3,500, reflecting the April highs.
• Bearish scenario: If resistance holds, prices may retrace to retest $3,345, and a deeper pullback could target $3,318–$3,310.
• Expect the week to begin on a cautiously bullish note, with XAU/USD hovering between $3,360–$3,370 as traders position for potential Fed and geopolitical cues.
• Primary support: $3,345–$3,346 — recent breakout point and 38.2% Fibonacci level.
• Secondary support: $3,318–$3,320 — near the 20 SMA and prior consolidation bottom.
• Tertiary support: ~$3,290 — the base of the current consolidation zone.
• Bullish strategy: Go long on a confirmed breakout above $3,403.
• Bearish strategy: Short on rejection around $3,430–$3,435 if momentum stalls.
• Neutral / wait and see: If XAU/USD remains in the $3,360–$3,403 range, consider holding off until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.
• Key catalysts this week: US PPI & CPI releases (Wednesday), geopolitical developments in the Middle East, Federal Reserve guidance on rate cuts.
• Trade opportunity: Target 1: 3,435, Target 2: 3,500.

Gold remains highly sensitive to US inflation readings and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Always employ disciplined risk management and monitor real-time economic data and central bank commentary closely.

Gold prices rose to near two-month highs on Friday after Israel launched a major strike on Iran, hitting “dozens” of military and nuclear targets and spurring demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

At 11:10 AM GMT, spot gold jumped 0.9% to $3,417.10 an ounce, close to the record high of $3,500 reached in April. Gold futures for August rallied 1% to $3,436.90 per ounce. Both are on course for weekly gains of around 3%.

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD is coiling within a triangular range between 1.1455–1.1380, where a breakout above 1.1550 would confirm a bullish move, while a break below 1.1380–1.1400 may trigger a bearish reversal.
• Bullish scenario: a breakout above 1.1550 opens the path to 1.1650, and potentially 1.1750–1.1800 if momentum persists.
• Bearish scenario: a breakdown below 1.1380 could slide EUR/USD towards 1.1300–1.1330, with deeper retracement possible to 1.1200–1.1268 by month-end.
• The pair is expected to open the week around 1.1480–1.1500, factoring in recent USD weakness and positioning ahead of US inflation (CPI/PPI) and Fed commentary.
• Primary support: 1.1455–1.1440 – top of the current range and retest level.
• Secondary support: 1.1380–1.1400 – lower triangle boundary and recent H4 pivot.
• Tertiary support: 1.1300–1.1330 – mid-term support and prior consolidation zone.
• Bullish approach: enter on breakout above 1.1550–1.1560; target 1.1650 then 1.1750.
• Bearish approach: initiate short positions on breakdown below 1.1380; aim for 1.1300, then 1.1268.
• Neutral / range trading: in the absence of a breakout, consider range-bound trades between 1.1380–1.1550, buying near support and selling near resistance.
• Trade opportunity: Target 1: 1.14967, Target 2: 1.14041.

Crude Oil WTI

• WTI recently broke above $63.30 resistance on the 6th of June, signalling bullish momentum and validating a breakout from a bull-flag pattern.
• Bullish scenario: with the breakout confirmed, upside targets lie at $66.40–$66.60, extending to $68.99, where WTI stalled last week.
• Bearish scenario: if momentum falters, a pullback to $63.00–$63.10 is likely, with deeper support around $61.70–$61.80.
• Oil is expected to open around $66.00–$66.20, sustaining the recent rally amid geopolitical worries and easing trade tensions that have bolstered investor appetite.
• Primary support: approximately $66.37–$66.81, anchored by the 50-EMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels (50%–38.2%).
• Secondary support: $65.57, near the 78.6% retracement zone.
• Tertiary support: $63.30–$63.95, representing the recent breakout and channel base.
• Bullish strategy: Consider long positions on dips into $66.20–$66.40. Targets: $68.99, then $70.00+ if momentum holds.
• Bearish strategy: Consider short positions if WTI falls below $66.00 and dips under the 50-EMA (approximately $66.37). Target: $63.30, and possibly $61.70.
• Neutral / wait-and-see: If WTI trades between $66.40–$68.99, consider range trading or wait for a clear breakout or reversal.
• Trade opportunity: Target 1: 70.00, Target 2: 66.20.

NEWS HEADLINES

Middle East tensions and geopolitical impact

Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, including Natanz, prompting Iranian drone retaliation.

The sixth round of US–Iran nuclear talks took place in Oman amid rising hostilities, with markets watching closely for diplomatic progress or escalation.

Rising Middle East tensions triggered a sharp oil price surge, pushing Brent crude above $75, with fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ signalled potential output increases through summer to address growing demand and ease supply concerns.

Market reactions and commodity outlook

Oil’s rally intensified “stagflation” fears as inflation pressures rise alongside slowing global growth.

US futures and Asian stocks retreated amid geopolitical risks, while the S&P 500 faces pressure despite projections of reaching 6,500.

Investors remain cautious due to supply chain issues, AI sector risks, and trade uncertainties.

Currency moves and regional market trends

The US dollar weakened to 2025 lows as investors sought safe havens in the yen and Swiss franc.

India’s rupee faces pressure, possibly falling beyond ₹86/USD amid surging oil prices and diminished risk appetite.

Asian markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mumbai declined sharply amid risk-off sentiment.

Regional currencies diverged, with the yen and Swiss franc strengthening, while the Australian dollar and South Korean won weakened.

Market watchers should monitor supply chain updates, geopolitical developments, central bank speeches, and OPEC+ announcements.

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