Week ahead: Markets hang on US job data

Markets diverge: weak US labour data lifts rate cut bets, a probe into Fed Governor Cook adds uncertainty, and Trump hits Japan with new tariffs. The UK and Europe track political risks as Russia eyes a fuel export ban. Gold demand climbs, Nasdaq tightens crypto rules, and tech focus falls on Nvidia’s China chips and DeepSeek’s year-end launch.

KEY INDICATORS

Markets and commodities

Dollar Index rebounds, up 0.15% to 98.29.

US Treasury yields decline across the curve; 10-year at 4.162%, 2-year at 3.598%.

Gold ends seven-day rally, down 0.38% to $3,545.78/oz.

Silver slips below $41, down 1.32% to $40.67/oz.

WTI down 0.76% to $63.07; Brent down 0.88% to $66.69.

Global equities

US stocks rally; Dow +0.77%, S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq +0.98%.

Tesla +1%, Intel +2%, while C3.ai falls over 7%.

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.1%; Alibaba -4%, NIO -3%.

European stocks mostly higher; DAX +0.74%, FTSE 100 +0.42%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.41%.

Central banks and data

The Bank of Japan will hold a market operations meeting on 16 October.

The Bank of England seeks feedback on plans to strengthen gilt repo market resilience.

The European Central Bank will decide on interest rates on 11 September, with inflation and growth in focus.

Federal Reserve officials’ commentary ahead of the next FOMC meeting remains crucial.

US CPI on 11 September is the main inflation gauge for Fed expectations.

US PPI on 10 September offers an early signal of producer inflation.

US jobless claims remain a key labour market stress indicator.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment on 12 September is a key gauge of confidence.

Europe and the UK face ongoing debates on fiscal risks and bond yields.

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: Bullish, with pullbacks likely to find support before buyers return.
• Support level: 1.1645 (secondary: 1.1660)
• Resistance zone: 1.1725 (secondary: 1.1740)
• Long strategy: Enter longs near 1.1645 support, target 1.1725 initially, extend towards 1.1740, stop-loss below 1.1645.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 1.1725–1.1740 resistance, target 1.1660 initially, extend back to 1.1645 if momentum stalls.
• Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 1.1645–1.1740.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish bias.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: Broadly bullish, but weakening momentum signals risk of near-term reversal.
• Support level: 198.8 (secondary: 198.5)
• Resistance zone: 200.0 (secondary: 201.0)
• Long strategy: Enter longs only if price holds above 198.8 support, target 200.5 initially, extend towards 201.0, stop-loss below 198.8.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 200.0 resistance, target 198.8 initially, extend back to 198.5 if momentum stalls, stop-loss above 200.0.
• Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 198.5–200.0.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the potential for a breakout.

DAX 40

• Primary trend: Bullish, but current levels limit the risk/reward profile.
• Support level: 23,640 (secondary: 23,800)
• Resistance zone: 24,080 (secondary: 24,150)
• Long strategy: Enter longs on dips near 23,640 support, target 24,080 initially, extend towards 24,150, stop-loss below 23,640.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts if rallies stall near 24,080–24,150 resistance, target 23,800 initially, extend back to 23,640 if momentum stalls, stop-loss above 24,150.
• Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 23,640–24,150.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish bias.

NEWS HEADLINES

US developments

ADP jobs report shows 54k in August, below the 65k expected, while jobless claims rise to 237k, the highest since June.

The Justice Department launches a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Governor Cook over a mortgage case.

Fed nominee Milan says the central bank should not be under presidential control.

Fed’s Williams warns of rising labour market risks and supports gradual rate cuts.

Nasdaq will tighten scrutiny of listed firms’ cryptocurrency investments.

Elon Musk will skip Trump’s White House tech CEO dinner.

Global trade and politics

Trump signs an order imposing 15% tariffs on nearly all Japanese goods under a new trade deal.

Norway holds parliamentary elections on 8 September, with implications for regional stability and energy policy.

The UN General Assembly opens on 9 September as a key diplomatic forum.

Macron is expected to avoid a snap election if PM Bayrou loses a confidence vote.

Political risks in the Eurozone continue to weigh on sentiment.

Click here to open account and start trading.