Global economic dynamics are shifting as the UK and Japan increase their holdings of US Treasury bonds while China continues to reduce its exposure, reflecting diverging financial strategies amid global uncertainty. The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4% and scaled back its quantitative tightening program, signaling a more cautious stance in the face of evolving economic conditions.

KEY INDICATORS

Economic & Monetary Policy

• UK and Japan increase holdings in US treasury bond, while China reduces
• Bank of England takes a cautious approach in monetary tightening, keeping interest rates at 4%
• Trump hinted at the possibility of providing tariff refunds to US citizens

Geopolitical & Diplomatic Developments

• Trump argued that reducing oil prices could help end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Looking ahead (22-26 September 2025)

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: Signs of fatigue is spotted from the uptrend, with the risk/reward favors fading rallies rather than chasing strength.
• Support: 1.1725, followed by 1.1700.
• Resistance: 1.1780, followed by 1.1825.
• Long strategy: Look for a quick bounce if dips hold above 1.1725, targeting 1.1780.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies from the 1.1825 resistance. A sustained break below 1.1700 would strengthen the bearish case.
• Range trading: Sell near the highs and buy near the lows between 1.1700 – 1.1825, with tight stops outside the band.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: Bullish trend is losing momentum, with price action signaling signs of topping out.
• Support: 199.15 followed by 198.85.
• Resistance: 200.00 followed by 200.35.
• Long strategy: Look for short-term entries on dips above 199.15, targeting 200.00.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies from the 200.35 resistance, with downside targets at 199.15 and 198.85.
• Range trading: Sell near resistance and buy near support between 198.85 – 200.35, while keeping tight stops outside the band.

XAU/USD

• Primary trend: Despite recent choppy price action, a broader uptrend remains.
• Support: 3603
• Resistance: 3664 followed by 3674
• Long strategy: Buy on dips near support, targeting 3664 and 3674. Pullbacks are expected to remain shallow, with buyers stepping in at key levels.
• Short strategy: Sell from resistance 3664/3674, with stops kept tight above recent highs.
• Range trading: Buy near support and sell near resistance between 3603 – 3674 until a clearer breakout emerges.

NEWS HEADLINES

U.S. labour data surprise sends markets moving

U.S. initial jobless claims saw their largest drop in nearly four years, however, reports emerged hours later that the North Carolina continuing claims were undercounted by over 19,000 due to a reporting error. A Labour Department spokesperson confirmed an investigation is underway.

The U.S. dollar index rebounded above the 97 level, closing up 0.35% at 97.36.

Precious metals held its ground, while oil remains trapped in supply glut

Despite an intraday drop of over $40 due to bearish jobless claims data, losses were pared as gold closed at $3,643.75/oz (+0.41%). Silver also rebounded after initial decline, closed at $41.79/oz (+0.35%).

Crude oil continued to decline due to concerns over U.S. supply glut and weak fuel demand, with the WTI down 1.03% to $63.30/barrel and the Brent down 0.6% to $67.51/barrel.

Equities closed at record highs despite mixed signals

All three major U.S. indices posted gains and closed at record highs, with Dow Jones +0.27%, S&P 500 +0.48% and Nasdaq +0.94%. The same trend was observed in the European markets, with the German DAX 30 +1.35%, UK FTSE 100 +0.21% and the Euro Stoxx 50 +1.62%.

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