Week ahead: Inflation shock on the horizon

The week of mid-July is packed with pivotal US inflation data, Chinese GDP and retail sales figures, and the UK’s inflation and GDP updates. Tariff tensions, earnings season, and the G20 finance meeting in South Africa further shape the global sentiment landscape.

KEY INDICATORS

Foreign exchange market

US CPI on Tuesday and UK inflation midweek will test central bank rate expectations.

Ongoing tariff threats from Trump continue to pressure global currencies.

India’s rupee is set to open lower after Trump announced 15–20% tariffs and warned of 35% tariffs on Canada from 1 August.

Commodities and equities

Markets expect volatility in gold, Treasuries, and FX due to tariffs, job data, and a key French budget vote on 14 July.

New 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods are weighing on US corn exports.

US corn export sales remain strong despite increased competition from Brazil.

Q2 earnings season begins with major banks and tech firms like JPMorgan, Netflix, and 3M.

US equities are holding near record highs as investors await CPI data and more tariff clarity.

India’s options volumes have halved after SEBI banned Jane Street from trading.

Analysts expect options activity to recover once market conditions stabilise.

Asian markets and key events

Foreign investors added $6 billion to Asian equities in June, led by Indian and Taiwanese tech stocks.

US trade policy remains a concern despite strong investment flows into Asia.

Thailand has posted three straight months of deflation, reinforcing dovish central bank policy.

Pressure on India’s rupee continues due to external tariff risks and weaker regional sentiment.

MARKET MOVERS

Nasdaq 100

• Technical breakout: Nasdaq remains just below historic highs, closing near $23,100–$23,150. A confirmed daily close above $23,200 would signal a bullish breakout continuation, while a break below $22,830 would increase bearish risk.
• Target projection (bullish): A breakout above $23,200 targets $23,500–$23,600, with potential to extend to $24,200–$24,400 by late July, supported by tech momentum and analyst models projecting 15–20% gains into October.
• Target projection (bearish): A drop below $22,830 opens the path to $22,500, with further downside towards $22,300.
• Opening expectation: Nasdaq futures suggest a modestly bullish open near $23,100–$23,150, supported by easing rate-cut expectations and strong labour data.
• Primary support zone: $22,830–$22,855 (VWAP area and short-term channel edge).
• Secondary support zone: $22,775 (lower VWAP and minor pivot).
• Tertiary support zone: $22,500–$22,300 (correction zone if momentum fades).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy on a breakout above $23,200 with targets at $23,500 and $24,200–$24,400.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on a breakdown below $22,830 with targets at $22,500 and $22,300.
• Stop-loss level: Below $22,830 for bullish positions; above $23,200 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: US CPI and PPI data, Fed minutes, tariff developments, and earnings updates from the Magnificent 7 tech stocks.
• Market context: The Nasdaq remains in a strong uptrend, fuelled by AI and tech innovation. While short-term consolidation risks remain, longer-term momentum continues to support the upside. Traders should maintain disciplined risk controls—tight stops and scalable entries—especially ahead of key macro data and earnings.

Nikkei 225

• Technical breakout: The index is testing critical resistance at 40,550–40,700. A daily close above 40,700 would confirm an upside breakout, potentially signalling a continuation of the long-term uptrend, while momentum indicators suggest a possible shallow correction rather than a trend reversal.
• Target projection (bullish): A breakout above 40,700 targets 41,000, with an extended target of 41,380–43,000 based on the ascending triangle measurement.
• Target projection (bearish): On pullback or breakdown, expect support near 39,500–39,700, with deeper support at 39,000.
• Opening expectation: Nikkei is likely to open slightly higher around 40,400–40,500, supported by previous strength and positive sentiment from yesterday’s bounce off interim support.
• Primary support zone: 39,500–39,700 (consolidation base and recent bounce zone).
• Secondary support zone: 39,000 (50% retracement of recent rally and short-term moving average).
• Tertiary support zone: 38,800–38,900 (last line before a deeper pullback, aligned with long-term moving average).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy on a breakout above 40,700 with targets at 41,000 and 41,380–43,000.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on a breakdown below 39,500 with targets at 39,000 and 38,800–38,900.
• Stop-loss level: Below 40,000 for bullish positions; above 40,700 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: Global economic data, trade developments, and market sentiment shifts.
• Market context: The Nikkei remains supported by positive sentiment following recent bounces and technical setups, but momentum indicators warn of a potential shallow correction. Traders should exercise risk discipline with tight stops and small position sizes amid uncertain breakout conditions.

DAX 40

• Technical breakout: The DAX is hovering near all-time highs around 24,350–24,400. A daily close above 24,400–24,450 would confirm a bullish breakout, unlocking potential for further upside, while a break below 24,000 (the 50-day EMA) would increase bearish risk with a possible correction towards 23,500–23,700.
• Target projection (bullish): A breakout above 24,450 targets 25,000, with an extended target of 26,500–27,000 based on longer-term structural projections.
• Target projection (bearish): A drop below 24,000 opens the path to 23,500–23,700, with further downside towards 23,000.
• Opening expectation: The DAX is expected to open modestly higher around 24,200–24,300, supported by the global risk-on tone and momentum from US indices.
• Primary support zone: 24,000–24,050 (50-day EMA and major pivot).
• Secondary support zone: 23,500–23,700 (prior consolidation low).
• Tertiary support zone: 23,000–23,200 (deeper pullback area).
• Strategy (bullish approach): Buy on a breakout above 24,450 with targets at 25,000 and 26,500–27,000.
• Strategy (bearish approach): Short on a breakdown below 24,000 with targets at 23,500 and 23,000.
• Stop-loss level: Below 24,000 for bullish positions; above 24,450 for bearish positions.
• Key catalysts this week: Global risk sentiment, US equity momentum, and updates on macroeconomic data and trade developments.
• Market context: The DAX is testing all-time highs amid strong global momentum. While a shallow correction is possible if key support breaks, the longer-term structural outlook remains positive. Traders should maintain disciplined risk management, especially near critical breakout levels.

NEWS HEADLINES

Political tensions and trade talks intensify

President Trump dismissed Elon Musk’s new “America Party” as “ridiculous,” escalating their political feud.

The White House plans to send tariff notice letters to multiple countries by 9 July.

Trade deal efforts continue involving Indonesia, India, and Korea.

Starting 7 July, Russia will increase its net foreign currency sales, potentially adding volatility to regional currencies.

Trade tensions spark market and currency volatility

India’s rupee opened lower after Trump proposed raising tariffs to 15–20%, and imposing a 35% duty on Canadian goods.

The IMF warned that Trump’s new 50% tariffs on copper and Brazilian imports are worsening global trade tensions.

Copper futures on Comex surged 12% to all-time highs following the US 50% tariff announcement.

London Metal Exchange recorded its highest trading volumes since 2014 amid tariff-driven volatility.

European stocks edged lower as investors remained cautious ahead of tariff updates and the start of earnings season.

Asian markets show mixed reactions amid trade uncertainty

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Chinese markets rallied on hopes of new stimulus measures.

Japan, Korea, and Australia lagged amid ongoing US trade headwinds.

Stimulus-driven rallies in China boosted Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index.

Tokyo and Sydney markets remained cautious ahead of US trade developments.

Goldman Sachs warned rising tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainty could disrupt an otherwise favourable stock market outlook.

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