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What if a single report could open the door to trading opportunities in just minutes? This Friday, 5 September 2025, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release could spark sharp market moves – creating volatility that rewards traders who are ready.
Jobs data shows how the US economy is performing and guides the Federal Reserve on interest rates, making NFP a key driver for the US dollar, stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold and oil.
Last month, July’s report added only 73,000 jobs [link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm], well below earlier expectations. The miss weakened the US dollar and fuelled speculation that the Fed may cut rates sooner than anticipated.
This Friday’s release could be just as pivotal. Here’s what to watch – and how you can prepare.
Understanding NFP
NFP measures how many new jobs were created in the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm work, the military, and certain government roles.
Strong job creation suggests businesses are expanding, consumers are spending, and the economy is running hot – which may keep rates higher for longer. Weak job growth often signals slowdown risks and opens the door to cuts.
Think of NFP as a monthly health check on the US economy. If the results surprise, the patient’s heartbeat suddenly changes – and markets react in seconds.
Breaking down the report: Key metrics to watch
Traders look beyond the headline figure – here’s what really matters this Friday:
- Headline job gains: Consensus forecast is 75,000–78,000 jobs. This continues the slowdown seen in July (73,000) and remains well below early-year levels, showing that the labour market is losing momentum. A strong upside surprise (e.g., 120,000+) could lift the US dollar, while a print under 50,000 might trigger market concern.
- Unemployment rate: Expected to remain at 4.2%, steady with July. Even small changes can influence market sentiment.
- Average hourly earnings: Forecasted monthly increase is 0.3%, consistent with July. On a yearly basis, wages have risen around 3.9%. Stronger pay growth could signal inflation risks, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
- Revisions to past data: Recent reports have seen large downward adjustments, for example, July’s revisions to May and June combined for 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. These revisions can move markets unexpectedly.
- Labour force participation rate: Trending stable or slightly lower over the past year; July’s rate was 62.2%. Even subtle shifts can affect how unemployment figures are interpreted.
Key numbers at a glance
Market reactions to watch
US dollar (USD): A strong jobs print (100K+) would likely support the dollar, especially against currencies like the euro and yen. A weak result could add to selling pressure.
Bonds: Yields typically rise on strong job growth as markets price in tighter Fed policy, while a weak report pushes yields lower and fuels rate-cut bets.
Shares: Stock markets often cheer weak jobs numbers if they boost rate-cut hopes. However, if the slowdown looks too sharp, concerns about corporate earnings could take over.
Gold: Traditionally a safe haven, gold often rises on weak jobs data as traders price in lower yields and a softer dollar. A stronger-than-expected NFP could drag it lower.
Oil: Jobs data influences growth expectations and energy demand. A weak labour report may cap oil prices, while stronger hiring could offer support.
How to prepare with VT Markets
Volatility around NFP is often sharp but short-lived, making preparation essential. With VT Markets you can:
Stay informed with our live Economic Calendar and instant market news.
React quickly on our lightning-fast platforms designed for execution speed.
Trade flexibly with access to forex, indices, commodities, and other markets – all impacted by the NFP.
Manage risk using advanced tools such as stop-loss and take-profit orders.
The key is timing: the faster you see the data and execute, the better you can capture opportunities or protect positions.
Stay ready, trade the NFP
The US NFP release is more than just an economic update – it’s a catalyst for volatility and opportunity. With forecasts pointing to another soft jobs report, the stage is set for potential market swings that traders can use to their advantage.
Be ready this Friday, 5 September, with VT Markets’ tools at your fingertips.
