GBP/USD briefly moved above 1.3480, then fell back to the mid‑1.33s. It is now seen trading in a near‑term range of 1.3350 to 1.3450.
Over the next one to three weeks, the balance of risk is still upward. A move towards 1.3520 would need a daily close above 1.3480.
Near Term Levels And Conditions
Support is placed at 1.3280, described as a strong level. The set-up for a close above 1.3480 is expected to remain in place while 1.3280 holds.
A weekly close below 1.3300 may lead to a drop towards the 1.2945/1.3010 support zone. The note is dated 06 Mar 2026, with 1.3310 referenced.
The piece says it was produced with an AI tool and checked by an editor. It is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team.
Looking back to early March, our view was that upside risk for GBP/USD would build, but only if the pair closed above the 1.3480 resistance level. That upside scenario never materialized as the pound failed to sustain any momentum. Instead, the strong support we identified at 1.3280 came under significant pressure and ultimately gave way.
Updated Market Backdrop And Trade Ideas
The fundamental picture shifted decisively against the pound following the release of the late March US jobs report, which showed the US economy added 295,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. This bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive policy stance, strengthening the dollar across the board. In contrast, the UK’s latest inflation figures came in slightly below forecast at 2.1%, easing pressure on the Bank of England to keep pace.
As we noted could happen last month, the weekly close below the key 1.3300 level triggered a more significant decline. The pair is now trading in a new, lower range, currently hovering around 1.3150. This confirms that the bearish scenario is now in play, with our focus shifting towards the major support zone previously identified at 1.2945/1.3010.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests buying put options to position for further downside. We see value in purchasing puts with a 1.3000 strike price and an early May expiration. This strategy would profit from a continued slide towards our long-term support target.
Alternatively, for those anticipating that the recent breakdown will cap any potential rallies, selling call options offers a compelling strategy. The broken support around 1.3280 now serves as firm resistance. Selling calls with a strike price of 1.3300 would allow traders to collect premium while betting that the pound will not recover above this new ceiling in the coming weeks.
