VT 
Gold edged lower on Thursday, extending its retreat from the previous session’s record high after the US Federal Reserve opted for a modest 25 basis-point rate cut and signalled a slow, steady approach to further easing.
The retreat followed a dramatic rally that pushed prices to an all-time high of $3,707.40 on Wednesday, before reversing to close 0.8% lower as the Fed’s messaging cooled some of the more aggressive dovish bets in the market.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk-management” cut in light of a softening labour market. He added that the central bank is now operating on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis, providing little forward guidance and keeping expectations subdued.
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Peter Fertig of Quantitative Commodity Research said, “There is a bit of disappointment… the market expected the opportunity cost for holding gold to decline more strongly than the Fed decided.”
Dollar Rebounds, Pressuring Bullion
The dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday after plunging to a 3.5-year low the previous day, tightening financial conditions and increasing the cost of holding gold for traders outside the US.
Although Treasury yields remained suppressed, the stronger dollar helped cap gold’s upside.
SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF globally, reported that holdings fell by 0.44% to 975.66 metric tonnes on Wednesday from 979.95 tonnes the day before—indicating some institutional profit-taking at elevated levels.
Despite the pullback, ANZ remains bullish, stating in a note that “gold is likely to outperform early in the easing cycle,” with demand for haven assets expected to remain strong amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic fragility.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm at 3667.87, up 0.23% on the day, extending its impressive rally from the August base. The metal remains strongly bid, trading well above its moving averages, which continue to slope upward and confirm a sustained bullish trend.
Momentum is reinforced by the MACD, which remains in positive territory with widening separation between the signal and MACD lines, highlighting that bullish momentum is still in play.
On the chart, gold has carved out higher lows and higher highs since the $2832.68 low in March, with the most recent breakout above the $3600 psychological barrier further strengthening the uptrend.
The next resistance lies around $3700–$3750, a zone that could be tested if buyers maintain control.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $3600, followed by the stronger base at $3400, where gold previously consolidated before its latest surge. As long as prices hold above these levels, the broader outlook remains bullish.
Cautious Forecast
In the short term, gold is likely to consolidate between $3,630 and $3,700 as traders await further clarity on the Fed’s next steps and monitor global macro data.
The next key test lies in the October Fed meeting, where the market sees a 90% probability of another 25bps cut. A dovish shift in tone or softer US data could quickly drive gold back toward its recent highs.
Over the medium term, gold remains well supported by structural drivers: Falling rates, persistent geopolitical tension, and inflation uncertainty.
However, rapid ETF outflows or a stronger-than-expected US rebound could stall the current uptrend. Traders should monitor dollar strength and bond yields closely in the coming sessions.
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