EUR/JPY rebounded after small losses the previous day and traded near 185.30 during European hours on Thursday. On the daily chart, the pair is moving higher within an ascending channel.
The pair remains above the nine-day and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The Relative Strength Index is 61.38, suggesting upward momentum that is not yet overextended.
Key Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance sits near the top of the channel around 185.70. A break above the channel could lead towards the all-time high of 186.88, set on 23 January.
Initial support is at the nine-day EMA of 184.52. A drop below that level could bring the 50-day EMA at 183.64 into view, followed by the channel’s lower boundary near 183.00.
The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool.
Based on the current technical setup, we believe the bullish trend in EUR/JPY is set to continue. The pair is trading firmly within its ascending channel, and with the RSI showing strength but not yet being overbought, there appears to be more room for upward movement. This technical picture is supported by fundamental data, as Eurozone core inflation for March 2026 came in at 2.7%, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to maintain its restrictive stance.
Options Trade Ideas
For the coming weeks, we see an opportunity in buying call options with strike prices just above the immediate 185.70 resistance. Selecting expiries in late May or June 2026 would give the trade enough time to potentially test the all-time high of 186.88 reached earlier this year. Given that implied volatility in the pair has remained relatively subdued, the cost of entry for these options is attractive.
Alternatively, traders comfortable with selling premium could consider bull put spreads. We would look to sell puts with a strike below the channel’s lower boundary around 183.00, while buying a lower strike put for protection. This strategy allows us to collect income while betting that the pair will not suffer a significant breakdown in the near term.
Looking back, we recall how the Bank of Japan’s first steps toward policy normalization in 2024 and 2025 ultimately did little to halt the yen’s weakness, a theme that persists today. However, we must use the nine-day EMA at 184.52 as a key risk marker. A confirmed break below this level would be the first sign that the bullish momentum is fading, signaling a need to reduce long exposure.
