VT 
Markets are expected to remain cautious this week, with European sentiment under pressure, mixed trading in Asia, and a focus on key US data and events that could influence risk appetite and market direction.
KEY INDICATORS
France political strains and Nvidia earnings in focus
Ongoing political unrest in France has rattled markets, dragging the CAC 40 lower by more than 3% this week.
The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds has widened to its highest level since April, highlighting investor unease.
Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report remains a key risk event, with results expected to set the tone for tech and AI-driven stocks globally.
Asia markets mixed as China data weighs
Asian equities traded with mixed sentiment: Japan’s Nikkei, Korea’s Kospi, Australia’s ASX, and Taiwan’s Taiex posted modest gains, while Chinese indices slipped.
Losses in China were concentrated in property and healthcare stocks, adding pressure to already fragile market confidence.
China’s July industrial profits fell 1.5% year on year, though the pace of decline slowed — a sign of potential stabilisation.
Oil markets await key US inventory data
The US EIA’s weekly crude oil inventory report is due today, a major event for energy traders.
The data will provide insights into supply–demand balances amid ongoing price volatility.
Market reaction is expected to be significant, with energy equities and WTI crude likely to move sharply on the outcome.
MARKET MOVERS
EUR/USD
- Primary trend: Bearish, with rallies towards 1.1685 likely to face selling
- Support level: 1.1620 (secondary: 1.1580)
- Resistance zone: 1.1680–1.1685
- Long strategy: Consider tactical longs on dips above 1.1620, target 1.1680–1.1685
- Short strategy: Sell near resistance at 1.1685, initial target 1.1620, extend towards 1.1580 if momentum builds
- Range trade: Buy near 1.1620 and sell near 1.1685 if price oscillates in this band
- Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bearish bias
GBP/JPY
- Primary trend: Bullish, with recent selling showing signs of exhaustion
- Support level: 198.20 (secondary: 196.80–197.00)
- Resistance zone: 200.50–201.00
- Long strategy: Buy on dips near 198.20, target 200.50–201.00
- Short strategy: Consider shorts if price breaks below 198.20 with strong momentum, target 196.80–197.00
- Range trade: Buy near 198.20 and sell near 200.50 if price consolidates in this band
- Risk management: Use tight stops within the range to manage risk effectively
XAU/USD
- Primary trend: Bearish, with an ending wedge warning against extended rallies
- Support level: 3354 (secondary: 3325–3289)
- Resistance zone: 3383 (secondary breakout target: 3410–3420)
- Long strategy: Consider longs only on a confirmed breakout above 3383, target 3410–3420, stop-loss below 3372
- Short strategy: Sell near resistance at 3383, target 3354 initially, extend towards 3325–3289 if momentum builds
- Range trade: Sell near resistance and buy near support if price consolidates between 3354–3383
- Risk management: Keep stops tight given elevated volatility
NEWS HEADLINES
Dollar under pressure
EUR/USD holds near 1.1620, struggling to break above 1.1660.
The US dollar fell as Trump’s move to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns over central bank independence.
In early Asian trading, the dollar strengthened against other major currencies.
US rises, Europe dips, oil steady
US stocks gained as investors shrugged off Fed tensions.
European markets dipped on French political risk and potential government instability.
WTI crude held steady at $63.66, marking a third consecutive session rebound.
Market outlook and Asian session highlights
In Asia, EUR/USD eased to 1.1698, GBP/USD fell to 1.3494, and USD/JPY rebounded to 147.47.
Gold retreated to $3,362 per ounce.
Markets may remain volatile as French political tensions weigh on Europe and the CAC 40.
Nvidia’s earnings could sway tech stocks, while Asia sees mixed trading amid slowing Chinese data.
Energy markets await the US EIA crude report, which is likely to move oil and related equities.
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