VT 
What if a single economic release could trigger sharp market moves in just minutes? This Friday, 5 September 2025, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will do exactly that. Known for shaking markets, the NFP is one of the most closely watched indicators in the world – and a key driver of the US dollar, stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold and oil.
Last month’s release showed that only 73,000 jobs were added, far below expectations. That shortfall weakened the dollar and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than markets previously thought. With August’s numbers about to land, traders are once again bracing for volatility.
So, what should you look for this time – and how can you prepare?
Why the NFP matters for traders
The Non-Farm Payrolls report measures how many jobs were created in the US economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural work, the military, and certain government roles.
Think of it as a monthly health check on the world’s largest economy. Strong job growth suggests businesses are hiring, consumers are spending, and momentum is strong – conditions that can keep interest rates higher for longer. Weak numbers signal slowing activity, raising the chances of rate cuts.
Markets often respond within seconds of the release. A strong upside surprise can boost the dollar and push bond yields higher. A weak print can have the opposite effect, sparking rallies in gold or even stocks if traders expect easier monetary policy ahead.
Numbers that really move markets
While the headline job creation figure grabs attention, seasoned traders know that several other components can be just as important. Here are the main ones to watch this Friday:
Job gains
Economists expect between 75,000 and 78,000 new positions. This would confirm the slowdown seen in July and keep the labour market well below early-year levels. If hiring surprises to the upside – say, 120,000 or more – it could give the US dollar fresh strength. A print below 50,000, however, might trigger renewed concern about the economy.
Unemployment rate
Forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. Even small changes matter because they show whether job seekers are finding work. A rise to 4.3% would suggest slack is building, while a dip would show resilience.
Wage growth
Average hourly earnings are expected to climb by 0.3% month on month, with annual growth near 3.9%. Faster wage growth means households have more money to spend, but it also raises inflation risks. That could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates too quickly.
Revisions to past data
In recent months, previous figures have been sharply revised downwards. For instance, July’s report cut earlier estimates for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs. These revisions can shift market perception instantly – sometimes more than the new numbers themselves.
Labour force participation
July’s figure stood at 62.2%, broadly stable over the past year. Even slight movements here can change how the unemployment rate is interpreted. If participation falls, a steady unemployment rate might mask underlying weakness.
How markets may react
Different markets respond in different ways, and the reactions are often immediate:
- US dollar (USD): Strong jobs data usually lifts the dollar; weak numbers weigh on it.
- Bonds: Yields rise on strong hiring, fall on weak reports.
- Shares: Stocks cheer modest weakness (rate-cut hopes) but drop if slowdown looks severe.
- Gold: Gains on weak jobs data and a softer dollar; falls on strength.
- Oil: Stronger hiring supports demand outlook; weaker data caps prices.
For example, in April 2025, a strong NFP print above 200,000 boosted the dollar and pushed gold down more than 2% in one day. In July, weak numbers triggered the opposite move – gold rallied while the dollar fell.
How to prepare for NFP day
For traders, the challenge with NFP is not just understanding the numbers but also reacting quickly. Market moves are often sharp yet short-lived, which means preparation is essential.
Here are some practical steps:
1. Stay informed: Keep an eye on VT Markets’ Economic Calendar for real-time updates. This ensures you don’t miss the release time or forecasts.
2. Use fast platforms: Execution speed can make all the difference during NFP volatility. VT Markets’ platforms are designed to help you react instantly.
3. Diversify your approach: The NFP doesn’t just affect currencies. With VT Markets, you can access forex, indices, commodities, and more – all of which can move when the data is released.
4. Manage your risk: Tools like stop-loss and take-profit orders allow you to set boundaries in advance. That way, you can protect your account from unexpected swings while keeping the chance to capture opportunities.
Imagine you are trading the EUR/USD. If the NFP comes in stronger than expected, the US dollar could rise sharply, pushing EUR/USD lower. Without a stop-loss, a sudden drop could erode your position quickly. With a stop-loss in place, you can limit your downside while leaving room to benefit if the report surprises the other way.
Turning volatility into opportunity
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is more than a routine piece of data – it is a monthly catalyst that can set the tone for global markets. With forecasts pointing to another modest increase in jobs, expectations are already leaning towards a softer labour market. That means any surprise, whether stronger or weaker, could send ripples across currencies, bonds, shares, and commodities.
For traders, the opportunity lies in preparation. By knowing which numbers matter most, anticipating potential market reactions, and having the right tools at your fingertips, you can turn this event into a chance to capture new opportunities – or protect your positions.
Volatility brings both risks and rewards. This Friday, 5 September, stay ready with VT Markets and make sure you don’t miss the moves that NFP can bring.
