USD/CHF traded around 0.8070 on Tuesday after falling 0.29% on Monday. Price action stabilised as the US Dollar softened on month-end flows, while broader risk appetite improved.
The pair has pulled back from its year-to-date peak at 0.8139, a move that allows for a 70-pip decline, but demand emerged and kept the broader uptrend intact. RSI remains above the 50 neutral level and is approaching overbought territory, supporting the near-term upside bias. To extend gains, USD/CHF needs a push above 0.8100 and then a break of 0.8139, with resistance levels next at 0.8171 (1 August 2025), 0.8215 (19 June 2025) and 0.8250 (4 June). On the downside, support is seen at 0.8042 (31 March), then 0.8013 (11 June), with 0.8000 below.
Underlying Bullish Trends and Supporting Factors
We are seeing a familiar pattern in USD/CHF, currently trading near 0.9050, that reminds us of the bullish setup from mid-2025. The pair is holding key support after a minor pullback, suggesting the underlying upward trend remains fully intact. This price action is occurring against a backdrop of broad US Dollar strength.
The dollar’s appeal is supported by strong economic data, as last week’s US jobs report showed a robust addition of 215,000 jobs, beating expectations. Furthermore, the latest US CPI data came in at 3.4% year-over-year, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path compared to other central banks. This divergence should continue to fuel demand for the dollar.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank reinforced its dovish stance in its June meeting, signaling it will act to prevent excessive Franc appreciation. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding firmly above the 50 mark, similar to the setup last year, showing that momentum is clearly with the bulls. We also note that recent CFTC data from late June shows speculative net long positions on the USD have increased by 8% over the last four weeks.
Trading Strategy and Key Levels to Watch
Given this outlook, we are positioning for further upside by using call options for the coming weeks. We see value in buying August 2026 call options with a strike price around 0.9100. This strategy provides a defined-risk way to capture gains if the pair breaks through recent highs toward the 0.9200 area.
On the downside, we are watching the 0.9000 psychological level, which now acts as the first major support. A sustained break below this area would begin to challenge the bullish outlook. Until that happens, we will treat any weakness toward that level as an opportunity to add to long positions.
