About 10% of the S&P 500 is due to report results by the end of next week, with forecasts for about 14% year-on-year profit growth and a sixth straight quarter of double-digit expansion. Technology is expected to grow earnings by over 40%, while healthcare is forecast to fall by about 10%.
Major US banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, are expected to draw attention for updates on credit conditions and consumer spending. Two semiconductor firms, ASML and TSMC, are also in focus.
Semiconductor Earnings In Focus
ASML reports on 15/03/2026, with EPS seen at $7.79 and revenue at $10.15B; its shares are up about 38% in 2026. Last quarter, bookings reached €13.2 billion, revenue was €9.7 billion, and net profit was €2.84 billion.
Key areas include gross margin trends, exposure to China amid export restrictions, and order intake after the prior quarter’s bookings surge. The mix of orders is also watched.
TSMC reports on 16/03/2026 (PST), with EPS estimated at $3.34 and revenue at $35.33B; shares are up about 22% in 2026. Last quarter, net profit rose 35% year-on-year and quarterly revenue exceeded NT$1 trillion, marking an eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Focus areas include margin effects from new fabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany, the durability of AI-led demand, and second-quarter and full-year guidance.
April Earnings Season And Sector Split
As we move through April 2026, earnings season is in full swing, confirming the profit growth we anticipated. So far, with about a quarter of the S&P 500 having reported, around 78% of companies have beaten earnings per share estimates, which is above the five-year average. This supports the view of a strong quarter, even as the market looks for reasons to push higher.
The divide between sectors is becoming clearer, just as expected. Technology continues to post impressive numbers, fueled by the ongoing AI buildout we saw accelerate through 2025. Conversely, healthcare and some consumer sectors are struggling with tougher year-over-year comparisons and cost pressures, creating opportunities for pairs trades using options to go long tech leaders while betting against laggards.
Looking back, ASML’s report in mid-March set a cautious tone despite strong headline numbers. The record bookings from the previous quarter were not matched, and management’s commentary on gross margins was non-committal, causing the stock to trade sideways since. Implied volatility has since decreased, which could present a better-priced opportunity to buy call options ahead of the next major catalyst.
Given the uncertainty around China export rules and future orders, traders should consider strategies that benefit from a potential upside move but define risk. Bull call spreads on ASML could be an effective way to position for a recovery toward year-end without paying the full premium for outright calls. This strategy allows us to capitalize on the strong AI demand narrative while capping our risk if geopolitical headwinds worsen.
TSMC’s earnings last month also highlighted the key tension between massive AI demand and the costs of global expansion. While revenue was solid, the stock pulled back slightly as the market digested the impact of its new fabs in Arizona and Japan on near-term profitability. As of mid-April, the stock has been consolidating, suggesting the market is waiting for new information.
For those holding TSMC shares, writing covered calls with strike prices above the recent highs could generate income while the stock remains in this range. For others, buying long-dated puts could serve as a relatively cheap hedge against any escalation in geopolitical risk. The cost of this protection is reasonable, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) currently hovering around 16, below its peak from earlier in the year.
After the massive rally we saw across the semiconductor sector in 2025, valuations are high, and the market is extremely sensitive to any signs of slowing growth. The earnings reports from last month showed that even strong results can fail to lift stocks if forward-looking guidance is anything less than perfect. This environment suggests that using options to define risk is more crucial than ever.
