The rupee slid at Thursday’s open, pushing USD/INR to around 95.75, as firmer crude prices weighed on a major oil-importing economy. In early trade, the MCX Crude Oil June 18 contract rose 0.7% to near 8,787 after jumping 3.6% on Wednesday, reversing earlier losses. The move followed renewed concern over the US–Iran ceasefire, which has helped lift the dollar-rupee pair.
US Central Command said it carried out additional “self-defense strikes” on multiple targets in Iran after what it described as Tehran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression”, following Tuesday’s attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter. Foreign Institutional Investors have been net sellers on every trading day so far in June, with outflows totalling Rs 62,654.34 crore. Markets are also awaiting May CPI on Friday; forecasts point to 4% year-on-year versus 3.48% in April, after the RBI left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% last week. USD/INR stayed near its 20-day EMA at 95.4886, with RSI at 53.79; resistance is seen near 96.03 then 97.08, while support lies at 95.49 and 94.77.
Drivers Of Rupee Weakness And Market Dynamics
We are seeing significant pressure on the Indian Rupee, pushing the USD/INR pair towards 95.75. This is mainly driven by the surge in crude oil prices, a direct result of renewed tensions between the US and Iran. A high oil price environment historically weakens the Rupee, as India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs to meet demand.
The risk from oil prices is not fully priced in yet. With Brent crude recently crossing the $115 per barrel mark, the strain on India’s import bill is intensifying. Looking back at 2022, a similar spike in oil prices following the conflict in Ukraine saw the Rupee depreciate by over 10% against the dollar within the year, a pattern that could repeat.
The continued exit of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) adds another layer of downward pressure on the currency. The net sale of over Rs. 62,000 crore just in the first part of June is significant, exceeding the monthly outflow figures seen during most of the 2024 post-election uncertainty. This capital flight directly weakens the Rupee as FIIs convert their holdings back into dollars.
We are closely watching tomorrow’s CPI data for May, which is expected to rise to 4%. A reading significantly above this forecast could increase market volatility, as it would pressure the RBI to act on its warning against generalized inflation. While a rate hike is typically Rupee-positive, in the current environment it could also stoke fears of slowing growth, creating a mixed reaction.
Outlook, Strategy, And Technical Levels
Given this outlook, we believe derivative strategies should be positioned for further Rupee weakness and increased volatility. Buying USD/INR call options, particularly with strike prices around 96.50 and 97.00, offers a way to profit from a potential upward move while capping downside risk. This seems more prudent than holding outright long futures contracts due to the uncertain timing of geopolitical events.
The technical chart supports this view, with the USD/INR pair consolidating for its next move. A decisive close above the 96.03 resistance level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, with the all-time high near 97.08 as the next logical target. Traders should use the 20-day EMA at 95.49 as a key short-term support level to monitor.
