Mexico’s core inflation rose by 0.31% in April, matching forecasts.
The figure indicates the monthly change in core prices for the country during April.
Market Uncertainty Reduced
The April core inflation data meeting forecasts removes immediate uncertainty for the market. This result reinforces our view that Banxico will feel no pressure to deviate from its current, gradual path of policy adjustments. With the overnight interest rate target currently at 9.50%, this data point gives the central bank cover to hold steady at its next meeting.
We see this stability weighing on currency volatility, particularly for the USD/MXN pair. The attractive interest rate differential, with the Mexican rate still over 450 basis points higher than the U.S. Fed Funds rate, continues to support the peso. Traders should consider strategies that benefit from this low volatility, such as selling out-of-the-money options to collect premium.
Looking at the interest rate swaps market, the forward curve for the 28-day TIIE rate seems appropriately priced for a slow and cautious easing cycle. We recall that throughout 2025, upside inflation surprises caused significant jolts and repricing along the curve. This in-line inflation print suggests such sharp moves are unlikely in the near term.
This steady monetary policy outlook is supported by a solid economic backdrop. Recent government figures show GDP growth tracking near 2.2%, largely fueled by the ongoing strength in nearshoring investments. This allows Banxico the flexibility to focus squarely on bringing inflation back to its 3% target without having to prematurely stimulate the economy.
