Argentina’s month-on-month tax revenue in April was 17B, compared with 16071B in the previous period. This marks a month-on-month decrease.
The data reports a change from 16071B to 17B for April. No further breakdown or context is provided in the statement.
The April tax revenue collapse, from over 16 trillion pesos to just 17 billion, signals an immediate and severe crisis, especially as Q1 2026 inflation already re-accelerated to an annualized 410%. We should anticipate an extreme devaluation of the Argentine Peso (ARS) in the spot and futures markets. Aggressively buying put options on the ARS or shorting peso futures is the most direct response to this development.
This revenue shortfall makes a sovereign debt default almost inevitable, echoing the fears we saw during the tense IMF talks in mid-2025. With central bank net reserves reportedly dipping below $2 billion last week, the government has no capacity to cover its obligations. We should therefore see the price of Argentina’s credit default swaps (CDS) surge in the coming days.
The country’s main stock index, the Merval, which lost over 40% in the final quarter of 2025, will likely face immense selling pressure as economic activity grinds to a halt. We are positioning by shorting Merval index futures or purchasing out-of-the-money put options on major Argentine ETFs. This provides a defined-risk way to capitalize on a market downturn.
Such a drastic economic event creates massive uncertainty and market volatility, reminiscent of the political instability that led to the general strikes we witnessed in late 2025. We are considering long volatility strategies, such as buying straddles or strangles on key Argentine assets. This allows us to profit from the large price swings that are now all but guaranteed.
