Gold steadied near an 11-week low as the market balanced renewed Middle East hostilities against a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. XAU/USD was flat around $4,320 after an intraday dip to $4,268, a level last seen on 23 March. Weekend exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel undermined near-term peace expectations, while official statements on a ceasefire and on the continuation of a US naval blockade of Iranian ports kept uncertainty elevated.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased from 100.21 to about 99.97, offering limited support to Dollar-priced gold, yet higher-for-longer rate expectations continued to weigh on the non-yielding metal. After resilient US data, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 38% probability of a 25-bps hike in September, up from 22% a week earlier. Technically, spot remained below key moving averages; the RSI was near 34 and the ADX around 28, with resistance at the 200-day SMA near $4,436, then the 50-day SMA around $4,624 and the 100-day SMA close to $4,793, while support was flagged near $4,100.
Fundamental And Geopolitical Drivers
Given the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook, we believe gold’s path of least resistance is downward. The recent strong US jobs report, adding 272,000 jobs against expectations of 182,000, reinforces the idea that the central bank will keep rates higher for longer. This backdrop suggests we should be cautious with long positions and consider strategies that benefit from stagnant or falling gold prices.
While geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel offer temporary support, we view this as a secondary driver. Historically, gold’s rallies on geopolitical news are often short-lived unless the conflict directly threatens major global economic activity. The fundamental pressure from high interest rates, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, is a more powerful and sustained force.
Technical Outlook And Trading Strategies
With gold trading below its key moving averages, the technical setup confirms a bearish trend. We are looking at buying put options to capitalize on a potential move toward the $4,100 support level mentioned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels, so we would view any bounce toward the 200-day moving average near $4,436 as a favorable opportunity to initiate new short positions.
We also see an opportunity in the options market ahead of this week’s US inflation data. Rising implied volatility could make selling out-of-the-money call options or establishing bear call spreads attractive strategies. This allows us to collect premium while maintaining a view that gold’s upside remains capped by the market’s expectation of future rate hikes.
