The eurozone’s HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.5 in May, topping the 47.5 consensus forecast. The reading remains below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, but the outturn suggests activity was less weak than expected during the month.
Markets will weigh whether the beat reflects firmer demand or temporary resilience in services and manufacturing, as captured by the composite measure. Even so, with the index still in contractionary territory, the data point adds to the picture of subdued momentum across the bloc despite an improvement relative to expectations.
Implications For The Economic Outlook And ECB Policy
The May PMI data, at 48.5, shows the Eurozone economy is still in contraction but is proving more resilient than the market expected. To us, this is not a signal of a robust recovery but a clear sign that the downturn is moderating. We believe this reduces the tail risk of a severe recession that had been a concern earlier in the year.
This better-than-expected activity will likely make the European Central Bank more cautious about cutting interest rates too quickly. With the latest Eurostat data showing core inflation stubbornly holding at 2.7%, a less severe economic slowdown gives the ECB cover to keep policy tighter for longer. We see this as an opportunity to position for fewer rate cuts than the market is currently pricing, possibly by selling December Euribor futures.
Investment Strategies For Equities And FX
For equity indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, this news is supportive as it alleviates fears about corporate earnings falling off a cliff. With the Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index (VSTOXX) recently declining to 14.5, complacency may be setting in, but we see this as a chance to buy short-dated call options. This strategy allows us to capture potential upside from the improved sentiment without significant capital commitment.
In the foreign exchange market, a more hesitant ECB is bullish for the Euro. This data strengthens the currency’s position, particularly against the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve is facing its own signs of a cooling economy. We believe building a long position in EUR/USD through call options is a prudent way to trade this potential policy divergence.
