DBS Group Research expects the US dollar to stay supported into the 16–17 June FOMC meeting after a stronger US nonfarm payrolls release and firmer inflation expectations. May payrolls printed at 172k versus an 88k consensus, while April was revised up from 115k to 172k. Markets are also bracing for May CPI on 10 June, which is projected to jump to a three-year high of 4.2% year-on-year, and that combination has reduced expectations for near-term easing.
Beyond the meeting, the analysis points to a potential change in direction if the Federal Reserve faces questions over institutional independence under new chair Kevin Warsh. The post-FOMC path for USD is framed as contingent not only on incoming data but also on how the Fed handles what is described as a structural “stress test”, with the risk that support for the currency could weaken if that challenge is not navigated cleanly.
Near-Term Dollar Strength Driven By Payrolls And Inflation
We see the recent Nonfarm Payrolls report as a clear signal for short-term dollar strength. The May figure of 172,000 jobs, well above the 88,000 consensus, has effectively removed the chance of any imminent rate cuts. This places a potential 2026 interest rate hike firmly back on the Federal Reserve’s table.
Attention now shifts to the May Consumer Price Index report on June 10th, where we anticipate a jump to a three-year high of 4.2%. A number this high will almost certainly keep the Fed’s tone hawkish, especially as recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows core inflation remains stubbornly above 3.5%. Historically, persistent inflation has consistently supported a stronger dollar as it pressures the central bank to maintain tight policy.
Given this outlook, we are positioning for continued dollar support over the next week leading into the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Short-term call options on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) with expirations just before the June 17th announcement could capture this expected upward move. Implied volatility may rise into these key events, making these positions potentially profitable even on a modest move.
Risks And Strategies For The Post-FOMC Landscape
However, we believe the dollar’s strength is fragile and may not last beyond the June 17th FOMC press conference. The market will be scrutinizing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for any signs he might yield to political pressures on policy. Any perceived weakness in defending the Fed’s independence could trigger a sharp reversal in the dollar, similar to the currency volatility seen during previous leadership transitions at major central banks.
This creates a tactical opportunity to position for a potential decline in the dollar in the latter half of June. We are considering purchasing put options on the USD, or establishing bearish spreads on pairs like USD/JPY, timed for after the FOMC meeting. This strategy allows us to hedge our short-term bullish view or profit from a post-meeting sentiment shift.
