Silver (XAG/USD) recovered some ground on Monday but was set to end the day down 0.33% after a weekend gap lower linked to negative news on the US-Iran conflict. At the time of writing, it traded at $75.58 after rebounding from a daily low of $72.61.
Silver faced resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 76.09 and found support at the 20-day SMA of 73.28. A four-day low of $72.61 raised the risk of further declines, even with price ending above $75.50.
Momentum And Key Catalyst
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved sideways near the neutral level, suggesting limited momentum. Traders were awaiting a potential catalyst from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release on Tuesday.
If the price rises above the 100-day SMA, levels to watch include $77.98, the March 3 low turned resistance, and the 50-day SMA at $79.21. If it falls below the 20-day SMA, targets include the April 2 low of $69.58 and then $60.95, the March 23 cycle low.
Looking back at the situation around this time in 2025, we saw silver caught in a tight range following a geopolitical scare. The price was stuck between its 100-day moving average at $76.09 and its 20-day average at $73.28. This technical setup from last year provides a clear map for how we should be positioned today.
For derivative traders now, a break below that old support level of $73.28 would be a significant bearish signal. We saw a similar pattern in late 2025 when unexpectedly strong US jobs data boosted the dollar, pushing silver down nearly 10% in the following month. Buying put options or establishing bear put spreads would be the logical response to capitalize on a potential move toward the $69.58 target.
Options Positioning And Breakout Levels
Conversely, a sustained move above the $76.09 resistance level should be seen as a strong bullish trigger for buying call options. Current industrial demand reinforces this view, with recent reports showing silver consumption in the solar panel and 5G technology sectors is up 8% year-over-year for the first quarter of 2026. This fundamental strength could easily propel prices toward the higher target of $77.98.
The market is currently showing signs of indecision, much like the neutral RSI period we observed last year. The CBOE Silver Volatility Index (VXSLV) is hovering near 34, suggesting traders are anticipating a significant price swing in the near future. All eyes are on this week’s US Producer Price Index data, which will likely be the catalyst that breaks the deadlock.
Therefore, we should use those key price levels from 2025 as our guideposts for the coming weeks. Traders who are uncertain of the direction but are confident a large move is coming could consider long strangles to profit from a breakout. The strategy is to wait for a confirmed daily close outside of the $73.28 to $76.09 range before building a directional position.
