VT 
USD/JPY continues to trade within a bullish structure, with recent buying momentum from the 153.01 to 153.06 zone recapturing early losses and reinforcing support. While an Ending Wedge formation suggests caution on extended gains, the broader trend remains upward being fueled by macro divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Fed Patience vs BoJ Inertia
The U.S. dollar has remained resilient following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks that the central bank is “not yet confident” inflation is sustainably returning to target. This has led markets to scale back expectations for imminent rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and supporting the dollar across the board.
In contrast, the Bank of Japan has remained notably silent, offering no fresh guidance despite the yen’s continued weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda has avoided signaling any timeline for exiting ultra-loose policy, reinforcing the perception that Japan will lag behind in global monetary tightening. This is a key factor driving USD/JPY higher.
This policy divergence has widened interest rate differentials, making the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors and keeping the yen under pressure.
USDJPY Technical Analysis: Dip-Buying Zone Holds with Eyes on 155
USD/JPY is consolidating within a bullish channel, with price action respecting bespoke support near 153.06 to 153.07. The recent gap from 7-9 November 2025 has been fully closed, and Asian session flows have reinforced the upward bias the currency pair
- Support: 153.01–153.06, followed by 152.50 as bearish trigger if broken
- Resistance: 155 and 155.2 if support holds
- Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above 155.2
- Bullish Bias: Buy dips near 153.06 to 153.07, targetting 155 and 155.2. Maintain stops below 152.80.
- Bearish Setup: Short only if price breaks and closes below 153.00, looking out for 152.50. Use tight stops above 153.30.
- Range Play: Accumulate near 153.06 and reduce exposure near 155.2. Trade the range until a breakout confirms direction.
Outlook: Yen on the Back Foot as Markets Wait for BoJ to Blink
With the Fed signaling patience and the BoJ staying dovish, USD/JPY remains supported by macro fundamentals. However, the presence of an Ending Wedge pattern suggests that momentum could slow near resistance, especially if U.S. yields retreat or intervention chatter resurfaces from Japanese officials.
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