Daily market analysis

Week Ahead: US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales Set to Influence US Dollar Movements

November 14, 2023

This week is anticipated to be one of heightened activity for market participants, with a particular focus on developments within the United States. Noteworthy economic indicators, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales data, are scheduled for release. These reports are expected to introduce substantial volatility and potentially set the directional course for the US Dollar.

It’s crucial for traders to be cautious and stay on top of the latest developments for a successful week of trading. 

UK Claimant Count Change (14 November 2023)

The Claimant Count Change in the UK rose to 20,400 in September 2023, up from -9,000 in August 2023.

The next figures will be released on 14 November, with analysts anticipating an increase of 25,000.

US Consumer Price Index (14 November 2023)

Consumer prices in the US increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September 2023, easing from a 0.6% rise recorded in August.

Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the figures for October, which are due for release on 14 November.

Australia Wage Price Index (15 November 2023)

Australia’s seasonally adjusted wage price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2 2023, slightly down from the 3.7% increase seen in Q1 2023.

The data for Q3 2023 is set to be released on 15 November, with analysts expecting an uptick to 3.8%.

UK Consumer Price Index (15 November 2023)

The UK’s inflation rate remained steady at 6.7% in September 2023, consistent with the 18-month low observed in August.

The upcoming CPI figures are projected to indicate a further decrease to 4.9%.

US Producer Price Index (15 November 2023)

Producer prices in the US increased by 0.5% month-over-month in September 2023, the smallest rise in three months after a 0.7% increase in August.

The data for October 2023 will be released on 15 November, with analysts forecasting a modest 0.1% increase.

US Retail Sales (15 November 2023)

Retail sales in the US increased by 0.7% month-on-month in September 2023, following an increase of 0.8% in August.

Analysts expect a slight decrease of 0.1% in the October figures, which are scheduled for release on 15 November.

Employment in Australia (16 November 2023)

Employment in Australia grew by 6,700 in September 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a three-month low of 3.6% in the same peried, a marginal decrease from the figure recorded in August.

Analysts expect the employment figures for October 2023 to reveal an increase of 24,900, with the unemployment rate predicted to remain steady at 3.6%. The data are scheduled to be released on 16 November.

UK Retail Sales (17 November 2023)

Retail sales in the UK declined by 0.9% month-over-month in September 2023, reversing a 0.4% increase in August.

Analysts anticipate that UK retail sales for October 2023, which are to be released on 17 November, will increase by 0.3%.

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