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Oil prices remain pulled between shifting OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risks, and uneven demand growth. With politics and policy now weighing as heavily as fundamentals, traders face a market shaped by uncertainty and rapid shifts.
OPEC+ output cutback fuels price gains
Oil markets edged higher on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing to $62.58 and Brent crude reaching $66.37.
The gains followed a smaller-than-anticipated supply increase from OPEC+, which announced an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for October, down from 555,000 bpd in September.
The measured adjustment suggests the alliance is taking a more conservative stance amid ongoing uncertainty in supply and demand balances.
Market watchers had anticipated a larger output rise, but the restrained approach highlights weaker demand growth, oversupply concerns, and the need to safeguard price stability.
Russia sanctions back in spotlight
The supply picture was further tightened after Russia launched its most extensive air assault on Ukraine in months, reviving the possibility of tougher Western sanctions.
US President Donald Trump indicated his willingness to intensify restrictions, while European Union officials met American counterparts to discuss coordinated energy measures. Any such move could restrict global oil flows and add upside pressure to crude prices.
Technical analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) is currently trading at $62.64, up 0.34%, yet technical indicators continue to point to weakness.
After peaking around $77.90 in July, prices have steadily drifted lower, with the $62–63 band now serving as key support.
Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned bearishly, with prices struggling to break and hold above them.
Picture: WTI crude oil consolidating near $62-63 support, with bearish moving averages and weak MACD momentum signalling downside risk as seen on the VT Markets app.
The MACD indicator is flat but still below zero, signalling negative momentum. Recovery attempts have repeatedly failed under $67, underscoring sustained selling pressure.
If WTI fails to defend the $62 threshold, a decline towards $60–59–levels last seen in early Q2–remains possible.
Conversely, reclaiming $67 would be needed to revive short-term bullish momentum.
Fundamental factors, including OPEC+ supply discipline and shifts in US inventory data, will remain central to price direction.
Cautious forecast
The oil market remains highly sensitive to both supply disruptions and monetary policy shifts. A confirmed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week could lift demand expectations, while tougher sanctions on Russia would further squeeze global supply.
That said, demand growth is still trailing earlier forecasts, and oversupply concerns persist, keeping rallies under pressure.
Traders should also monitor China’s economic recovery pace, as weaker industrial demand could weigh on prices despite geopolitical risks.
In addition, seasonal refinery maintenance in the US and Europe could temper near-term crude demand, offsetting potential supply tightness.
Overall, without a decisive catalyst–such as sharper production cuts, stronger-than-expected consumption, or major geopolitical escalations–any rebound in oil prices is likely to be limited and vulnerable to swift corrections.
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