VT 
Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week consolidating near $4,100, after reaching a record high of $4,381 last week. As the market digests this historic rally, attention now turns to the next rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could provide the next directional cue for XAUUSD. With safe-haven demand fluctuating due to U.S.–China trade sentiment, the near-term path of gold hinges on both macro policy and technical confirmation.
Fed Easing vs Waning Safe-Haven Demand
Markets are pricing in a 0.25% rate cut from the Fed on 30 October 2025, with a another cut likely in December. Softer-than-expected CPI data and signs of labor market cooling have strengthened the case for easing. A dovish tone from Chair Powell could weaken the dollar and push real yields lower, both of which are bullish for gold.
However, safe-haven flows have recently cooled. Progress in U.S.–China trade talks has lifted risk sentiment, reducing demand for defensive assets. Gold slipped below $4,000 last week as investors rotated into risk-on trades. Still, with geopolitical risks and monetary uncertainty lingering, gold remains a key hedge in diversified portfolios.
Technical Setup: Consolidation Before the Next Move
Gold is currently consolidating after its record run, with price action coiling between $4,030 and $4,351.
- Support: $4,030, followed by a range between $3,960 and $3,940, then $3,850
- Resistance: $4,400, then $4,450 and beyond
- Bullish bias: Go long on breakout above $4,400 with volume confirmation, or buy pullback near $4,030 if support holds. Target $4,400 and beyond $4,450.
- Bearish setup: Short if price breaks below $4,030 with momentum. Target the range between $3,960 and $3,940, even possibly $3,850. Use stops above $4,100.
- Range Play: Trade the $4,030 to $4,351 range with tight stops until breakout or breakdown confirms direction.
Fed Decision to Set the Tone for Gold
With the Fed poised to cut rates and global risk sentiment in flux, the next move of gold depends on policy tone and macro data. A dovish Fed could reignite bullish momentum and drive a breakout above $4,400. Conversely, if safe-haven demand continues to fade, gold may test deeper support levels. Watch for a breakout above $4,351 or a breakdown below $4,030 to guide positioning.
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