Dollar leads rally as US bonds push markets lower

Political and economic risks are shaping sentiment across global markets. US tariffs and Fed scrutiny fuel uncertainty, UK gilts rally as sterling weakens, while Japan and Turkey grapple with political instability. In Argentina, authorities step in to support the FX market amid pressure on bonds and the peso.

KEY INDICATORS

Dollar strength driven by US yields

DXY +0.66% to 98.327, marking its first gain in six sessions.

10-year Treasury yield 4.263%, 2-year yield 3.652%, putting pressure on non-US currencies.

Commodities rally on safe-haven demand and supply concerns

Gold +1.64% to USD 3,533.43/oz, approaching USD 3,540 intraday.

Silver +0.37% to USD 40.89/oz.

WTI +1.46% to USD 65.37/bbl; Brent +1.38% to USD 69/bbl.

Gains driven by US sanctions on Iranian exports and OPEC+ production cuts.

Equities retreat amid tech weakness and risk sentiment

US stocks: Dow -0.55%, S&P 500 -0.69%, Nasdaq -0.82%; Nvidia -2%, Apple -1%.

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.52%; Li Auto +4.5%, NIO +3%, Bilibili -3.6%.

European equities: DAX -2.29%, FTSE 100 -0.87%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.42%, reflecting cautious global risk sentiment.

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• Primary trend: Bullish, with pullbacks likely to find support before buyers return.
• Support level: 3,485 (secondary: 3,455)
• Resistance zone: 3,589 (secondary breakout target: 3,640)
• Long strategy: Enter longs near 3,485 support, target 3,589 initially, extend towards 3,640, stop-loss below 3,455.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 3,589–3,640 resistance, target 3,520 initially, extend back to 3,485 if momentum stalls.
• Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 3,485–3,589.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish trend.

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: Bearish, with signs of a top forming.
• Support level: 1.1595 (secondary: 1.1580)
• Resistance zone: 1.1695 (secondary breakout target: 1.1720)
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs only if price holds above 1.1595 and breaks above 1.1720 with momentum; target 1.1770, stop-loss below 1.1690.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 1.1695 resistance; target 1.1595 initially, extend back to 1.1580 if momentum stalls; stops above 1.1720.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 1.1580–1.1695.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bearish trend.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: Supported in the short term, but stalling bullish momentum suggests a potential top may be forming.
• Support level: 197.80 (secondary: 198.05)
• Resistance zone: 199.25 (secondary breakout target: 200.00)
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs only if price breaks and holds above resistance with strong follow-through; target 200.00, stop-loss below 199.25.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 199.25 resistance; target 198.05 initially, extend back to 197.80 if momentum stalls; stops above 200.00.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 197.80–199.25.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given weakening bullish momentum.

NEWS HEADLINES

Global market and policy updates

Trump to hold emergency meeting on tariffs on Wednesday; Supreme Court appeal expected, with risk of tariff withdrawal and refunds if the ruling goes against him.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook under scrutiny as his declared primary residence is reportedly being let to tenants.

US regulators ease financial oversight, reducing the frequency of bank stress tests

UK 30-year gilt yield hits highest level since 1998; sterling slides on fiscal concerns.

Russia and the US to hold diplomatic consultations, Kremlin aide confirms.

Corporate and regional developments

Nvidia announces 2026 GTC conference to be held in San Jose, 16-19 March.

US judge rules Google is not required to divest Chrome or Android.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba apologises after LDP election loss, as party officials consider resignations.

India to launch commercial semiconductor production by end-2025.

India’s tax board proposes raising EV tax on mid-range models from 5% to 18%.

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