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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a broadly bullish structure, despite recent selling pressure from the $4,379 level that erased early gains. Price action remains well-supported on dips, with buyers defending key zones near $4,045. As global markets digest a wave of economic and geopolitical developments, the role of gold as a safe-haven asset remains front and center.
Trade tensions and policy shifts
After the U.S. reignited trade tensions by announcing a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, Europe is also faced rising fiscal uncertainty and political fragmentation, with upcoming elections and leadership changes adding to policy unpredictability.
The IMF World Economic Outlook for October 2025 highlighted subdued global growth, noting that temporary factors supporting activity earlier this year, such as front-loading and inventory restocking, are fading. Despite this, global trade remains resilient, expanding by $500 billion in the first half of 2025, led by manufacturing and electronics.
Looking ahead, upcoming key events include the U.S. Core PCE inflation report, the Fourth Plenum of China to finalise its five-year economic plan, and high-level U.S.–Russia talks on Ukraine. These developments could significantly influence risk sentiment and central bank positioning.
Technical analysis: Gold holds strong at support
Gold is currently consolidating after a pullback from $4,379, with support holding near $4,045. Momentum remains constructive, and a move above $4,112 could reignite bullish momentum toward $4,279 and $4,333. A close above $4,333 would confirm a bullish extension. On the downside, a break below $4,045 opens risk toward $4,000, with deeper weakness below $4,025 undermining the bullish setup.
- Support: $4,045 → $4,000 → $4,025
- Resistance: $4,112 → $4,279 → $4,333
- Bullish setup: Buy dips toward $4,045 with stops below $4,025. Target $4,279 and $4,333.
- Bearish setup: Short only on rejection near $4,279–$4,333. Target $4,112 or $4,045.
- Range play: Accumulate near $4,045 and reduce exposure near $4,279. Trade within the $4,045–$4,333 range until breakout confirms direction.
Gold as a barometer for global risk
With central banks navigating diverging policy paths and geopolitical tensions rising, gold remains a key barometer for investor sentiment. Traders should stay nimble and monitor macro headlines closely, as the next development could redefine rate expectations and risk appetite across global markets.
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