The Australian dollar is under pressure as markets turn cautious ahead of key US jobs data. Soft domestic figures and shifting rate expectations on both sides are keeping AUD/USD in focus, with upcoming releases likely to determine its next move.

Aussie dips ahead of US jobs data

The Australian dollar retreated to 0.6571 on Thursday, easing from an eight-month peak of 0.6590, as investor sentiment shifted to risk-off mode ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report.

The move followed a weaker-than-expected US ADP private employment reading, which signalled softening conditions in the US labour market.

Should Friday’s official jobs report also disappoint, it could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July—potentially weighing on the US dollar and offering support to the Aussie.

However, a strong payrolls print may lift the greenback further and put renewed pressure on AUD/USD.

Australian data reinforces RBA rate cut outlook

Australia’s trade surplus shrank in May to its lowest level in nearly five years, driven by falling commodity exports and a rise in capital goods imports.

This disappointing release came on the heels of Wednesday’s weak retail sales figures, highlighting subdued household spending and declining domestic demand.

Together, these consecutive data misses have strengthened the market’s expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming meeting on 8 July.

ANZ has joined other leading banks in forecasting a 25-basis-point cut, with a further reduction likely in August.

Futures markets now price in close to four rate cuts by early 2026, projecting the cash rate could fall to 2.85% from the current 3.85%.

With domestic fundamentals turning more dovish and monetary easing in focus, upside momentum in AUD/USD appears limited—unless US data significantly underperforms.

Key downside levels for bears to watch lie in the 0.6540–0.6500 range.

Technical analysis: Bearish momentum returns

AUD/USD is displaying a choppy short-term pattern, with intraday support emerging around 0.6543 and resistance near 0.6588.

After bouncing from the session low, the pair briefly climbed above the 30-period moving average and touched a high of 0.65879.

However, price action has since weakened, with the pair falling below short-term moving averages (5 and 10 periods) and the MACD crossing back into bearish territory.

Picture: Aussie stalls below 0.6590 as bulls fade, as seen on the VT Markets app.

Momentum indicators point to fading bullish strength, as the MACD histogram turns negative again—suggesting the pair could drift back toward its recent consolidation range.

A break below key support at 0.6543 may open the door to further losses toward 0.6520.

On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim 0.6588 to challenge the psychological resistance at 0.6600.

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