The Federal Open Market Committee held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12–0 decision, reversing April’s 8–4 split, while EUR/USD dropped from just under 1.1600 by about 60 pips, breaking 1.1550 and probing towards 1.1500. The statement removed language that had pointed to an easing bias and instead stressed a commitment to price stability. It also revised its assessment of employment to job gains keeping pace with workforce growth, while describing productivity and capital investment as strong.
The Summary of Economic Projections shifted the rate path higher, with the median 2026 federal funds forecast rising to about 3.8% from 3.4% in March, placing it a quarter point above the current rate. Inflation projections were raised in tandem: 2026 PCE moved to 3.6% from 2.7%, and core PCE was put at 3.3%, even as oil prices eased on a new Iran deal; nearly half of officials now indicate a hike this year. Separately, Kevin Warsh announced five task forces to review Fed operations, including the balance sheet, and flagged potential changes to the SEP and a new communications framework by year-end. In pricing, CME FedWatch shows September hike odds near 50%, rising towards 60% by October and roughly 75% by December, while near-term meetings remain priced as holds.
Implications for the Euro and the U.S. Dollar
Given the Federal Reserve’s sudden hawkish turn, we believe the path of least resistance for the Euro is lower. The market was caught off guard by the new upward-pointing dot plot, which now signals a potential rate hike instead of a cut. We should therefore adjust our strategies to favor a stronger U.S. dollar, especially against the Euro.
This pivot is supported by recent economic figures that give the Fed cover to remain aggressive on inflation. The last Consumer Price Index report showed core inflation holding stubbornly at a 3.5% annual rate, while the most recent jobs report added a robust 270,000 positions. These data points suggest the economy can handle higher rates, making the Fed’s new forecast more credible.
The policy divergence between the U.S. and Europe is now stark and likely to widen. The European Central Bank signaled a pause in its own cycle just last week, creating a clear fundamental reason for the dollar to outperform. This widening interest rate differential makes holding dollars more attractive than holding euros.
Trading Strategies for EUR/USD
For our directional view, we see value in buying put options on the EUR/USD. Specifically, we are looking at puts with a strike price near 1.1500, anticipating a break of this key psychological level in the coming weeks. This strategy provides a clear, risk-defined way to profit from further euro weakness.
The new Fed leadership has also signaled a move away from clear forward guidance, which will almost certainly increase market volatility. This makes buying options, such as straddles, an attractive strategy around future Fed meetings and inflation data releases. We expect implied volatility in EUR/USD to rise from current levels.
For those looking to establish bearish positions with less upfront cost, we are selling EUR/USD call spreads. Using the 1.1600 level as a ceiling, we can structure trades that profit as long as the pair stays below that heavy resistance. This allows us to collect premium while betting that any rally in the Euro will be short-lived.
